Stray Thoughts... - Sleepwalking to Success: The 2023 Toronto Blue Jays Story
On Kikuchi's sleep, (still) missing Manoah, Cavan's hot streak, Bo's defence, scoreboard watching, Cam Eden, Michael King, Vlad, Manfred, Stanton, the Red Sox' garbage pitching, and more!!
Yusei Kikuchi only got 11 hours sleep on Monday night, instead of his usual 13 or 14. This, he told the Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath, is what he thinks might have caused the nick cramping—officially, and tongue-twistingly, termed a “left upper trap muscle cramp” by the club—that forced him out of Tuesday’s Blue Jays win in the Bronx after just five-plus innings of excellent work (four hits, one walk, seven strikeouts).
He thinks he should be fine for his next start, but I definitely think there’s an injury to talk about here: to our collective brains. Thirteen or fourteen hours!!!?!
I’m not an especially schedule-oriented person, as regular readers will have discovered. I’ve been known to enjoy a little bit of slumber. Perhaps a doze here and there. A touch of the ol’ shut-eye. And yet, even for me, that’s… that’s a lot to process.
While I appreciate that there’s someone out there quietly rejecting the rise-and-grind mentality of hustle culture in his own very profound way, unless he’s actually spending half that time under the covers playing Baldur’s Gate it just seems like too much.
Whatever works for him, though! And this season, and until his exit on Tuesday night, it certainly has been working. Kikuchi bounced back with aplomb from his ugly start against Texas last week, neutralizing a Yankees lineup that’s been punchless against right-handed pitching this season, but actually very strong versus lefties.
By virtually any metric you choose this has been Kikuchi's best season in the majors. And while that might be damning with faint praise, this isn't: his 3.74 ERA puts him right between Spencer Strider (3.73) and Logan Gilbert and Max Scherzer (both 3.77), placing him 26th among big leaguers with at least 150 innings so far this season.
He's been really good! Not just good considering what the expectations were, but good good. I haven’t thought too much about other comeback player of the year candidates, and usually that award goes to guys who’ve persevered through injury, but surely he ought to get some consideration.
Anyway! Here are today’s stray thoughts…
I’ll be honest here, friends. This site keeps the lights on for me, but it isn’t a cash cow. And I could live a lot more comfortably than I do right now if I was willing to put some of my work behind a paywall and push a bunch readers who are on the fence into becoming paid subscribers. But, the thing is, I know that times are tough for a lot of people and I really don’t want to become inaccessible to anyone. So, if you can afford it, and you value what I do and aren’t already a paid subscriber, I’d ask that you consider upgrading your free membership to a paid one. Thanks. — Stoeten
And if Kikuchi isn’t fine?
Plenty of people will be thrilled if Kikuchi is fine and can make his next start, but I suspect nobody will be happier about it than Alek Manoah. And that’s because of stuff like this:
Not sure why anyone would be so mad that a guy isn’t available to come up and give the team 3 2/3 innings of four-run ball in the thick of a playoff race, but I suspect this kind of facile sentiment isn’t unique.
On Monday the Star's Gregor Chisholm laid out a timeline of Manoah's meteoric rise and shocking fall, which ends just after Ben Wagner's revelation last week that Manoah was indeed refusing to report to Buffalo at first because his camp was upset at his "performance-based" demotion, but adds a little extra detail:
The Star confirms the initial report and while doing so it’s revealed that Manoah underwent even more medical tests the week prior, at his request. The insinuation appears to be that Manoah was hurt, which could involve a grievance over service time, but no structural damage was found. Messages to Manoah’s representatives went unanswered.
All those tests, in other words, appear to have been real and not just a convenient cover story. The Manoah camp seems to think he’s hurt, or at least that they’ll be able to find a way to prove he is. Yet, evidently Jays haven’t seen anything to suggest as much, hence the “performance-based” demotion the pitcher’s camp is upset about, rather than an IL stint that would have allowed him to continue to make a big league salary and accrue service time.
Service time is probably central here, possibly because the loss of it during these trips to the minors could have affected Manoah’s chance at passing the very lucrative Super Two cutoff this winter, though maybe just more generally on principle. Or because they see the chance for a lengthy stint in the minors again next year, which could end up pushing his free agency back for a year.
However—and this is something that I only just recognized—the issue may be even simpler. The Associated Press reported back in March that Manoah “was given a $745,650 salary while in the major leagues and $353,100 should he be optioned to the minors.”
In other words, while theoretical future dollars may also be at issue, he’s lost plenty real world dollars this season already.
Now, I don’t think Manoah has much of a leg to stand on in his complaints here, especially since the battery of tests continue to find nothing wrong with him. I understand that this isn’t going to play well with fans or, presumably, in the clubhouse. You sucked bro, deal with it. But there are some bigger ideas that are worth considering before we label him just another selfish, greedy athlete.
As Gregor points out, last winter Manoah, much like Bo Bichette had done a year earlier, “took issue with the Jays’ pre-set scale” for very modest raises among players who are not yet arbitration-eligible and declined to negotiate a contract with the team. As the AP’s report says above he was “given” a salary of $745,650, which is only slightly above the league minimum of $720,000. This perhaps especially led to some hard feelings considering that Manoah, thanks to the new bonus pool for pre-arbitration players that awarded him greatly for his excellent season and top-three Cy Young finish, actually took home $2.9 million in 2022.
Whether he considered the Jays’ pre-set scale offer a pay cut or not, he obviously recognized that his value to the club was far greater than the small fraction of its $210 million opening day 26-man payroll he was being offered.
That the Jays have their own pre-set scale for raises is spun as a nice thing—as the team doing more for pre-arb players than they have to—and in a way that’s true. But they’re the ones setting the scale. They could pay these guys even more if they really wanted, but there’s no obligation for them to do so, and therefore guys like Manoah and Bichette simply just have to take what they’re given. It’s a precedent teams are not going to entertain changing, nor is paying a guy his big league salary and letting him accrue service time on the injured list if he isn’t pitching well enough to deserve his roster spot. Understandably so!
Yet, I can appreciate someone who has been treated like a franchise player not being very happy about any of this, even while knowing that this is the system that’s been collectively bargained into place by his own union. I can especially understand it if he thinks he was hurt and his club disagrees. And if there’s a grievance over a supposed injury, him getting back on the mound could undermine his case entirely. Teams take advantage of every angle of the CBA and get applauded for it, so it’s only right for players to do so. And in this case perhaps that means not pitching.
So, it’s more complicated than mere selfishness, or it least it could be. And I think we should be careful not to get too upset at players for using the tools at their disposal if they think they’ve been wronged or there’s a way to righteously push back at some of the exploitation inherent in the industry.
But I also want to be careful not to paint Manoah like he’s Norma Rae here either (look it up, kids).
The Blue Jays did not want to, in any abnormal sort of way, wring dollars and service time out of Alek Manoah this season. They wanted him to be a major part of a successful team—a job he very clearly proved himself incapable of. Pitch better.
Ladies and gentlemen… a pinch runner
The Blue Jays announced prior to Wednesday’s game that they’ve made a roster move: Ernie Clement has been optioned to Buffalo and taking his place is outfielder Cam Eden. Losing his 40-man spot in the shuffle is Mason McCoy.
It’s a shame for Clement, who performed better than just admirably during this recent big league cup of coffee, giving rise to some (probably misplaced) thoughts that the changes he made this year might have unlocked something that can make him a much more valuable big leaguer than he's ever looked like in the past (which is to say: a valuable big leaguer). But there just haven't been at-bats for him, and while there could be a case for the demotion having gone to Santiago Espinal instead, I don't think there's much need to split hairs here.
Eden, on first blush, doesn't look like he's going to offer the Jays much, until you look at the stolen base column on his FanGraphs page and see a big ol' 53 in there for him this year.
Yep. That works.
Oh my god! I forgot the game!
Anyyyyyyway. The Blue Jays didn’t get as much help on the out of town scoreboard as they would have liked on Tuesday—thank you very effing much, Red Sox bullpen—but the Orioles did do them a favour by beating up on the Astros.
The Jays are now 84-67, meaning they're a half game up on Houston (84-68), and a game up on both Seattle and Texas (83-67).
The Astros falling back into the thick of things is an interesting development, and not just because the Jays hold the tiebreaker with them. Houston has more games against teams not in the race than either the Rangers or Mariners, but they do still play in Seattle three times.
I wrote yesterday about the fact that one of either Texas or Seattle will definitely lose four more times this season, because they still have seven games left with each other. Well, if Seattle is the four-game loser, in order to get to 90 wins they'll have to run the table in their other four games, which would mean three more losses for Houston.
We're kind of getting into the weeds with that one, so we don’t really need to think about it too much. But it’s just another part of the AL-West-clubs-beating-up-on-each-other effect that could prove advantageous for the local nine.
Those three AL West teams all play in the afternoon here on Wednesday, so the Jays will know where they stand for a change when they take the field in the Bronx again tonight.
Something the Jays would also like to see for a change? A version of Michael King that doesn’t absolutely carve them.
Planet Ca(ra)van
Here’s how MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson began his game story on Tuesday’s Blue Jays victory in the Bronx:
Once upon a time, you couldn’t mention Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in the same sentence without adding three extra words:
“... and Cavan Biggio.”
They were handcuffed together, a trio of second-generation saviors for an organization transitioning from the José Bautista Era to something new. Biggio kept his name in that sentence for two seasons, then he fell out of it entirely, but he’s finally back, thriving in the role that’s made sense all along.
Personally, I’m not sure I’m ready to put Biggio’s name back up there along his higher-profile teammates, though it’s not exactly as though Vlad has been earning his place on it since about mid-May either. Yet, while we’ve all certainly been burned by hot streaks from him before—June of 2022 was a heck of a ride!—and while I’m far from ready to let go of the feeling that his production is as precarious as a house of cards—he just doesn’t do enough damage to justify his high walk rates, and his .352 BABIP since the start of July doesn’t exactly feel sustainable—this current heater is by far his most durable to date.
Biggio has had a wRC+ above league average in each of the last five calendar months: 129 in May, 114 in June, 107 in July, 100 in August, and 149 so far in September. Sure, he's getting favourable matchups—thank you analytics department—but the results keep on coming. And, notably, his strikeout rate here in September has been the lowest of his career at 16.7%. Biggio has never had a below-average wRC+ in a month in which he's struck out less than 25% of the time.
It doesn’t much matter at this point if it all goes away somewhere down the line, as long it’s not in the next two—or, if you will, six—weeks. Keep the hits coming!
Quickly…
• Speaking of Bo and Vlad, Part One: Statcast doesn't like him very much (he's -4 by Outs Above Average), but DRS (+3) and the eye test—especially last night—certainly would say that Bo Bichette has been a positive contributor on the defensive side of the ball this season. And that DRS mark puts him ahead of several of his fellow franchise shortstops: Carlos Correa, Bobby Whitt Jr., Xander Bogaerts, and Trea Turner. He's in that class, and will need to be paid like it. Obviously, the Jays should do this as soon as possible *COUGH*. (Bo is clearly smart enough to take the best deal no matter who is offering it, so don't give me any of that "rift" nonsense).
• Speaking of Bo and Vlad, Part Two: Vlad’s range at first base has been brutal this year no matter how you slice it, and the Jays should probably think about giving him less time there next year if they can help it. But for the time being I’m more concerned about whatever it was that caused him to run gingerly throughout Tuesday night’s game, leading to his early exit after he reached on an error in the ninth. Something might be up there, and it certainly wasn’t the first time in these last few months that I’ve thought about the knee that caused him to miss time in spring, and that he tweaked in May right around when his performance went into the toilet. Perhaps he should be given a little more benefit of the doubt when he’s not going all-out on it all of the time? (No? OK, fine. Not a hill I’m going to die on.)
• Yusei Kikuchi can’t wake up at 1 PM every day, because sometimes he’s got to pitch. And, it turns out, he does quite well when he does.
• The Blue Jays currently have the third best record in the American League somehow. And to think that people worried that Rob Manfred’s watering down of the playoffs would lead to teams trying less hard to be truly elite. Pfft!
• I can think of a few umpires I would prefer Peter Griffin to. (Aside: Aaron Boone stinks!)
• I take no pleasure in the demise of Giancarlo Stanton, who was so good and such a unicorn in his best days with the Marlins, except on plays like this. (Also when I look to see how much the Yankees still owe him.)
• Speaking, again, of Bo, a nice one here from Nick about how it’s starting to look like he might be getting his timing back after spending so much of the last two months on the shelf—and how important that could be during this final stretch.
• With all these afternoon games on at least I won’t have to stay up late to feel like a complete rube for actually having hope in the stupid Red Sox pitching staff. UGH.
• Lastly, JUST WIN YOU JERKS! KEEP THE DARN THING ROLLING!
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As someone who literally just woke up, it's nice to finally have a habit in common with an elite athlete.
He does sound like Peter Griffin. Would have liked a few more sound bites! Nice format!