Stray Thoughts... - Hot Stove Season Begins

On Chad Green, Chapman's QO, Jordan Hicks, Mitch White, Brendon Little, Shohei, payroll, Edward Rogers, Dave Hudgens, Aramark, awards, the AFL, FAs, Arjun Nimmala, Geddy Lee, and much, much more!

Nov 07, 2023

I know, I know, I still owe a mail bag. It’s coming! I haven’t forgotten. It just turns out that I wasn't quite as eager to jump back into thinking about the state of the Blue Jays as I thought I was when I put out that call for questions. And now, with the offseason beginning in earnest, the GM Meetings coming up this week in Arizona, the latest reshaping of the Blue Jays’ roster about to commence, and even some actual, honest-to-Gord news stories to get to, it’s going to have to take a backseat for just a little while longer yet.

And that’s because it is time once again for some stray thoughts—offseason catch-up style! There’s a whole lot to cover, so let’s delay this no further…

Let me be honest with you for a second here, friends. This site keeps the lights on for me, but it isn’t a cash cow. And I could live a lot more comfortably than I do right now if I was willing to put some or all of my work behind a paywall and push a bunch readers who are on the fence into becoming paid subscribers.

The thing is, I know that times are tough for a lot of people and I really don’t want to become inaccessible to anyone who enjoys reading and couldn’t pay.

So please, if you can afford it, and you value what I do and aren’t already a paid subscriber, I’d ask that you consider upgrading your free subscription to a paid one. Thanks. — Stoeten

Transaction action!

MLB teams had until 5 PM ET here on Monday to decide whether or not to make qualifying offers to their pending free agents, as well as whether they were going to accept or decline their players’ various contract options, and to remove players from the 60-day injured list and get their Reserve Lists (aka 40-man rosters) in order.

You know what that means: transactions!

I’ll address the big one—the Jays’ decision to keep Chad Green around for another couple of years—below, but there are several other transactional items of note.

To wit:

• The Jays declined to extend a qualifying offer to free agent Kevin Kiermaier.

• Brandon Belt and Hyun Jin Ryu were not eligible to receive qualifying offers because they had received them previously in their careers. Jordan Hicks was also ineligible, because he was acquired in a mid-season trade. All three are free agents as well.

• Whit Merrifield is also a free agent, as he and the Jays each declined their side of an $18 million mutual option one day after the World Series ended. I'm a little surprised that Merrifield would do such a thing, but it's possible he gets more total dollars on a multiyear deal, so… whatever. Moot point. Don't let the door Whit you in the ass on the way out, buddy!

• Matt Chapman, of course, was extended a qualifying offer. The Jays will get him for one more year on a salary of $20.325 million if he accepts, which he absolutely won't.

If I hadn't just watched him be awful at the plate for 5/6th of a season—like, if he'd played 2023 in a different uniform—I'd say that Chapman could be a great fit for the Jays and would be very much worth pursuing in free agency. Unfortunately, I think the price tag is going to make that just a little too unpalatable, at least for me, given that I absolutely did just watch him be awful at the plate for 5/6th of a season.

• The Jays also added right-hander Mitch White back onto the 40-man. That may seem odd to anyone who remembers who Mitch White is or has watched him pitch for the Blue Jays, but he was actually very good over multiple starts at the tail end of the year in Buffalo. I'm not sure it was just smoke and mirrors either.

• The club have also reinstated Adam Cimber, Hagen Danner, and Otto Lopez from the 60-day IL.

• And there's still more: LHP Brendon Little has been acquired from the Cubs for cash considerations, and he's been added to the 40-man as well. Little is a Florida junior college product who squared off against Nate Pearson back in 2017 before they were selected with back-to-back picks in the first round of the draft. He is also an optionable 27-year-old reliever who has just 2/3 of an inning of big league experience from back in 2022 (he walked a batter, hit a batter, and gave up two hits, including a a home run). Fastball/slider (95/86). Benny Fresh tweets that the Jays like his "stuff from the left side, work ethic and his experience in multi-inning roles.” It wouldn't shock me to see them try to sneak him through waivers at some point.

• The 40-man now stands at 39 by my count.

Green’s New Deal

The Jays officially announced here on Monday that they have exercised their two-year contract option on reliever Chad Green, which will guarantee him $21 million over the next two years (plus up to $1 million per year in performance bonuses). This was the third of three options in a uniquely structured deal, which means means that the club declined their first option—three years and $27 million—and that Green subsequently declined one for one-year and $6.25 million.

A $27 million guarantee doesn’t get you what it used to, but it’s pretty hefty in both dollars and term for a reliever who turns 33 in May and is coming off of Tommy John surgery, so I understand the decision there. And Green would have made more on the free agent market than $6.25 million, so his choice is completely understandable too. I’m a little surprised that the Jays were willing to take the two-year deal here, though I probably shouldn’t be.

Finding a comparable option on the free agent market would have been just as costly, if not more. Outside of a tough debut when he was pressed into action in a blowout in Colorado, and getting roughed up in that embarrassing Texas series in September, Green looked the part after he made his late-season return from TJ. His velocity was back to 2021 levels after taking an injury-related dip in 2022, and his strikeout and walk rates were where you'd expect them to be. His stuff looked good, and a high BABIP and an awful strand rate masked what was mostly some very solid work. I don’t think he would have landed a ton more than this in free agency, but it looks like fair market value right now. And in recent years we’ve been surprised by the size of more than a few higher-end reliever contracts—deals last year for Kenley Jansen and Rafael Montero come to mind—so maybe it will end up looking like a bargain of sorts.

Still, we’ve crossed the Randy Myers Rubicon here. Have the Jays paid this much to a reliever since B.J. Ryan? Even before Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro arrived on the scene, paying eight figures for relievers has been pretty rare for this franchise. The $11 million they guaranteed Yimi García two winters ago was a pretty big one in Blue Jays terms. So it’s at least somewhat interesting in that respect, and hopefully bodes well for where the club thinks it can take payroll. (Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that Green’s contract “isn't expected to impact the Blue Jays' ability to pursue hitters.)

It also, obviously, gives the Jays’ bullpen a very strong foundation. If everybody is healthy, by my count they likely only have one or two spots up for grabs. Green, García, Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza, and Génesis Cabrera are virtual locks. That leaves two spots, and as awful as Trevor Richards was in August and September, his strong first half, ability to soak up multiple innings, and low-ish arbitration salary (MLBTR projects him for $2.4 million) might be enough to keep him around. Adam Cimber also may or may not remain in the mix, as he’s been a good soldier and could be useful if healthy, but feels more like a non-tender candidate at this point (his arb projection is $3.2 million).

Optionable guys like Bowden Francis, Hagen Danner, Nate Pearson, and Zach Pop would then end up either on the outside looking in, or as guys who the club can cycle back and forth from Buffalo. (Though I wouldn’t rule out the Jays trading from some of that depth either, provided the club thinks it can hit on some younger arms from within the system who aren’t as close to being out of options, or perhaps on a Jay Jackson-like minor league free agent or waiver claim.)

Of course, my “if everybody is healthy” caveat makes clear that the Jays shouldn’t be reckless about their amount of depth. These are relievers, after all. But there really isn’t a whole lot left to do now on this front. It’s a very good group.

Yes, even if it’s clear that Jordan Hicks won’t be back.

Hicks a non-starter?

This is probably more of a footnote, and even if it wasn’t it’s old news, but I feel this is the most appropriate place to address the Hicks thing. Or, specifically, the thing about him that Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling somewhat cryptically said on an episode of At The Letters early last month. Hicks, he told listeners, “was a good trade but I think ultimately the Blue Jays learned he's not the best fit for them.”

As tempting as it was for certain cranks to believe that this must have had something to do with him hating Toronto, or John Schneider, or Ross Atkins, or the analytics department, or the José Berríos decision, or something else that confirmed their weird beliefs about what an unmitigated disaster this organization is, that’s probably not correct.

It might be! I suppose can’t say it isn’t. But—and I’m hardly the first person to have noticed this—there’s a much simpler potential answer, and it’s that Hicks hasn’t exactly been effusive about his love for pitching out of the bullpen.

The Cardinals experimented with Hicks as a starter in early 2022 and it didn't go well—ending, in fact, following an 8-1 home loss to the Blue Jays on May 24th. Heading into 2023, his former club was clear that he'd be pitching out of the bullpen in his final year before free agency, and he seemed only sort of OK with that.

“Hicks is irked by the perception that he failed as a starter in 2022, and the idea that he will forever be confined to the bullpen instead of the starting role he covets,” wrote MLB.com’s John Denton back in March.

“I don’t feel like I got my fair shot,” Hicks told him. “I didn’t come in built up, I built up during the season, and I don’t agree with people who come up and say, ‘You feel like you got the starting bug out? Are you done starting?’

“I don’t have an [ambition to start] or want to start because it’s not in the plans right now. Things aren’t lining up for that this season. But, down the road, sure.”

Hicks can now write his own ticket, or at least try to. I’m not sure how many teams are going to be interested in handing a rotation spot to a free agent who has started just 12 games since the end of 2017. But I get the sense that Jordan just might be building up to be a starter on his own this winter. Best of luck, my man.

Sho-hei the Money

So the Jays probably won’t be spending on Hicks. But their decision to pick up Green’s option genuinely suggests that there’s a fair amount of money in the coffers. Otherwise, why invest so much in an area of relative strength when you’re also going to have to replace basically four position player regulars?

Sure, some of the at-bats that in 2023 went to Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier, and Whit Merrifield can be handed over to internal options. But, I’m sorry, you can’t call yourself a World Series contender on one hand and say Spencer Horwitz is your everyday DH from Day One on the other. Let alone handing tons of at-bats to even less proven youngsters. I’d say that at least two of those guys need to be replaced by genuine major leaguers, and ideally it would be all four. Let the kids hit their way onto the team. Let Edward Rogers spend the money he’s saving by dumbly stopping his MLSE partners from bringing a WNBA team to Toronto on the Blue Jays, I guess.

And… well… they might. Maybe even on the biggest star of them all.

Fun stuff to dream on, huh? And the thing is, if I had to bet I’d say this is all probably true. Not that the Jays will land Ohtani, of course. But interested? If there’s even an infinitesimal chance that it might happen somehow, of course they’d be unbelievably interested. And pursuing? Well they can certainly try. A win-now front office would be pretty worthless if it couldn’t make the business case for bringing in one of the greatest players in the history of the sport in his absolute prime. And if the business case is there, why not run it past Ed’s guy in accounting who always leaks this financial stuff to fans on the internet? And once those guys hear it, fire away. No harm, no foul.

Heck, even Bob Nightengale—NONE OTHER THAN—considers the Jays as among the field of teams that will at least try to woo Ohtani this winter.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the overwhelming favorites to sign Ohtani.
The Chicago Cubs are the sleeper pick, several GMs say, particularly with $43 million coming off their books with the expiration of Jason Heyward’s contract and Marcus Stroman opting out.
The Boston Red Sox, with new GM Craig Breslow, are expected to be heavily considered.
The New York Yankees, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers will all make strong pushes.
But it’s foolish to discount the Angels.

You heard it here first, folks. Ohtani will not be signing with the Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners, Padres, or Rangers!

Seriously, though. I don’t think it’s impossible that the Jays really do have the desire and the resources to make a big push for Ohtani. Whether or not that would actually matter in the slightest to the player himself is, unfortunately, the much, much, much bigger question.

It can’t hurt to try, though. And, I suppose, it can’t hurt to know that the Jays could at least theoretically have some serious money to spend this winter.

More realistically, however, the purse strings might end up feeling a little tighter than in recent years. Right now Roster Resource has the Jays' at an estimated luxury tax payroll of $216 million—a number that includes Green's updated salary, arbitration projections, pre-arb salaries, player benefits, salaries for 40-man players in the minors, etc.

In 2023 this number ended up at $246 million, and Mark Shapiro has implied that they'll be in the same vicinity this time around. Even if they can shed some salary in the form of Cimber, Richards, and Santiago Espinal, they might not even have $40 million left to work with.

With a fairly soft free agent market on the position player side, and—as Nightengale says—29 of 30 teams actually attempting to be competitive next season, Ross Atkins has a pretty tough needle to thread when it comes to putting together a roster that can get Jays fans excited about 2024. AND THERE’S NO ONE THEY’D RATHER HAVE IN CHARGE!

Hudged Aside…

It never sat right with me how a whole lot of Jays fans seemed to often single out hitting coach Guillermo Martinez as the target of their ire throughout this incredibly frustrating year when there was always a higher profile, more experienced, and more… um… questionable figure right there.

Dave Hudgens was hired away from the Houston Astros after the 2018 season, one year removed from their first World Series victory, and one year before the whole world learned in full about the infamous trash can and the electronic sign-stealing scheme that helped propel that team to the top of the sport. He was the hitting coach.

For the 2017 Astros.

The Jays hired Hudgens to be their bench coach, which was a role he’d never held previously. Salary information for MLB coaches isn’t public, but it would be odd for someone to leave behind the 103-win Astros for the rebuilding 2019 Blue Jays if there wasn't a salary bump involved. Also, teams typically don't stand in the way when their employees are approached to interview for a higher position in another organization, though they may not allow it for a lateral move.

My assumption had always been that giving Hudgens the bench coach role had more to do with skirting that unwritten rule than it did with actually wanting him in the job. The idea seemed to me to be more about getting the hitting coach of those high-flying Astros into the organization, though he insisted at the time that being a bench coach was something that he'd always wanted to do—perhaps as a stepping stone to becoming a manager at a higher level than in Venezuelan winter ball, which is the only place he’s managed in his career to that point. That’s where the real big bucks are.

“It's unfortunate that we lose good people, but it's good for their careers,” said then-Astros-GM Jeff Luhnow after Hudgens’ hiring was announced. (Luhnow also said that Hudgens had “been instrumental in shaping our offense.” COUGH.)

Anyway! I don’t know what the Blue Jays’ hierarchy is in terms of implementing a hitting philosophy, but after a few years as bench coach, ahead of the 2022 season, Hudgens was moved into the role of “hitting strategist.” According to an MLB.com piece from the time, his job would be “working with Martinez to develop the club’s offensive approach.” Assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense joined the big league staff at the same time while also retaining his job as minor league hitting coordinator.

Now, I don’t want to downplay Guillermo’s or Mense’s influence, nor do I think it makes sense to seek out one person to point a finger at for failures up and down the lineup. But it always seemed to me that if we were going to start pointing fingers, maybe we should have been looking a little harder at the guy who was imported from the powerhouse Astros at a time when the Jays were really looking to build a new way forward post-John Gibbons, and who has all the experience, probably has the bigger salary, and likely has seniority.

Again, I don’t know any of that. Maybe his influence now isn’t what it once was. Maybe it was never as big as I suspect. Maybe the Jays’ collaborative spirit means everybody’s an equal. Maybe he was just a Brad Arnsberg to George Springer’s A.J. Burnett. But the idea that he was a pretty big part of this stuff—of this year’s failures and, it must be said, previous years’ successes—seems pretty obvious. One needs to only read his job title.

But perhaps that’s a little too convenient. I’ve defended Guillermo by pointing out that players have a lot more agency over their careers—and whether they, for example, decide to just stop pulling the ball—than fans often want to believe, and that’s worth considering here.

Also, Hudgens being the hitting coach on those scandalous Astros makes him an easy target, as does the fact that his Twitter likes are a right-wing tire fire. (Or at least they were the last I checked.) Your mileage may vary as to how fair you think the latter criticisms are. Personally, I couldn’t possibly care less if he’s tweeting a few minutes before a game, even if the tweet is exceptionally dumb. And I think it’s naïve to act like his politics would have a major impact on the clubhouse, as though a game dominated by rich guys from Texas, Florida, and Ivy League schools isn’t crawling with fellow travellers. But it certainly exhibits poor judgment, to be overly kind about it. And doesn’t exactly fill me with the sense that the Jays’ offence is in good hands.

Or was in good hands.

Late last week Sportnset's Shi Davidi reported that Hudgens “is being reassigned elsewhere in the organization.” This one, I suspect, is not a promotion.

Shi points out that, when Ross Atkins was asked about examining what went wrong on the hitting front in 2023, the GM explained that they'd look at “how they're preparing and what information they're receiving or not receiving.”

He continued:

“What we have done in the past has worked. It did not work this year. We thought we were adjusting enough for the changes and for things and trends that we were seeing from the league and specifically from teams that we play on a consistent basis. We didn't get the job done.”

Seems like hitting strategist kind of stuff!

I mean, maybe he’s just an easy scapegoat here. Maybe he’ll just be reassigned somewhere less visible. Maybe he’s a nice enough guy to your face. I don’t know. Clearly I have no better idea how this stuff all works than anybody else. But I do know one thing: I will not miss the stink of the 2017 Astros or the visibly MAGA Twitter stuff hanging over this team. Not one bit.

Aramark out!

The Jays announced last week that they have entered into a new "hospitality partnership" with Legends, the stadium operations giant founded by George Steinbrenner and the Dallas Cowboys' Jerry Jones. According to the Jays, Legends was involved with their operation somewhat already, helping to design some of last year’s food and beverage changes, but now they’ll be taking over in full.

If this had happened several years ago it absolutely would have been given its own post. I'm not sure that it's now buried here because I'm simply not in the building day in, day out like I was in the old days, because Aramark has broken our spirit and we don't really think better things are possible, or because the concession situation has actually improved in the last few years. But I kinda suspect it's the former.

So, I’m not really qualified to comment here, but what I can tell you is that Legends also operate Budweiser Stage and, of course, Yankee Stadium. I, uh, don’t think this is going to mean food and beverage prices will be going down anytime soon. But I do know that, at least in the Bronx, they’ve got some interesting options, like stalls from celebrity chefs (Bobby Flay, Marcus Samuelsson, David Chang) and some local favourite types, like Nathan's Famous, Lobel's, Mighty Qunn's BBQ, etc. So, maybe there’s hope for showing off more great Toronto food choices than they currently do, and then also making them far too expensive for normal people to ever hope to afford. (What can I say? I’m more of a Loonie Dog kind of guy.)

Do we still care about craft beer? I don't know.

Another aspect, of course, is what's going to happen with the employees who have currently been with Aramark. I know that there's some staff overlap between the Rogers Centre and Budweiser Stage, so hopefully that means things will be fairly seamless for people. But I also have heard grumblings about Rogers Centre staff with some seniority losing work because last year's changes to the outfield meant that peoples' longtime sections were now labelled something else and staffed differently than before. As it was explained to me, some employees felt like this was a way to get certain people out. Not great, and a story I'll continue keeping my eye on.

But on a better note, if this information from Indeed.com can be trusted, Legends employees are happier and better compensated than their Aramak counterparts.

So… hopefully this will be positive for someone other Rogers!

Awards, the AFL, and other obligatory things

Wowie! Some Blue Jays won some AL Gold Gloves! Three, to be exact. Though only one of them is likely to play for the club in 2024. Kevin Kiermaier and Matt Chapman won in centre field and at third base respectively, marking the fourth time each of them has won. José Berríos picked up his first award.

The reveal of the winners was not without Jays-related controversy, as Chris Bassitt took to Twitter with a rather pointed criticism:

Bassitt isn't wrong here, but I do sort of get it. In 2011, the league went back to handing out a separate award for each outfield position, like they did in the late 50s and early 60s. Varsho had an incredible defensive season but, unfortunately for him, he mostly played in left, but racked up a ton of his value (18 of his 29 DRS and 10 of his 12 OAA) in fewer than 500 innings in centre. That makes him neither the best CF nor the best LF. Somehow, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. had a higher DRS in left than Varsho did!

If I cared about awards I assured you I'd be outraged.

Two other things on this:

One) Nice redesign by the Fielding Bible.

Two) As you can see from the bottom of the graphic that Bassitt tweeted, Alejandro Kirk has really turned himself into a great defender! It doesn’t always feel like it because his value is in framing and blocking, rather than his arm, and so it’s less visible. But he was nearly as good as Gabriel Moreno by DRS, and was actually one run better than him according to Statcast. And in fewer innings! That aspect of the trade won’t look nearly as bad if in 2024 he goes back to his career norms offensively.

Other award stuff:

• The Jays only had one player nominated for an AL Silver Slugger this year, and it was 93 wRC+ Whit Merrifield in the utility player category. Grim.

• Kevin Gausman is one of the two AL Cy Young finalists that are going to lose to Gerrit Cole.

• Daulton Varsho is the Jays’ nominee for something called the Heart and Hustle Award.

• Five Jays prospects were part of the Fall-Stars Game in the Arizona Fall League: Dasan Brown, Damiano Palmegiani, Will Robertson, CJ Van Eyk, and Ricky Tiedemann. Three of them put in notable performances, too, with Palmegiani coming in second in the Home Run Derby, and Van Eyk and Robertson—two guys who seemed to be trending away from being real prospects not so long ago—taking care of business in the showcase game itself. Van Eyk started and struck out the side, and Robertson smashed a home run and picked up an outfield assist.

• The Jays were also the beneficiaries of the "PitchingNinja Chaotic Overlay Award," which honours the bottom of the sixth inning at Rogers Centre on September 10th, aka the Cole Ragans inning!

For those who’ve forgotten, down 0-2 in a game where they had a chance to sweep the lowly Royals ahead of their “huge: four-game set with the Rangers, the Jays promptly got two outs before Ragans utterly imploded—walk, walk, wild pitch, wild pitch, wild pitch, walk—allowing the Jays to even up the score. They'd take the lead an inning later on a Kevin Kiermaier home run and go on to win 5-2.

• Remember when it was funny how the Rangers gave away Ragans to get Aroldis Chapman? Sigh.

Quickly…

• Speaking of the 2023 Blue Jays’ hitting woes (weren’t we?)…

• Related: Geoff Pontes of Baseball America recently took a look at franchise-wide minor league Statcast hitting data, and though there are obviously going to be a lot of exceptions across an entire system, the picture it paints of the Jays won't exactly be surprising. The Jays’ minor leaguers ranked in the top 10 in both contact rate and chase rate, putting them among “the teams with the best plate skills.” However, they rank 29th in average exit velocity. Partly that might be down to the types of players they've been drafting—and contact-over-power is certainly something we've heard about several of their picks in recent years—but it’s at least interesting that it mirrored what we saw the big league club do this year. And not necessarily in a good way.

• The Jays can, of course, change the nature of their offence a little bit this winter—and, according to some of the writers at MLB Trade Rumors, they will. The site published its annual top 50 free agents piece on Monday evening, and among the players it's suggested might be the best fits for the Jays are: 3B/1B Jeimer Candelario (predicted to get a four-year, $70 million deal), Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee (5/50), DH Jorge Soler (3/45), INF Gio Urshela (2/20), and Kevin Kiermaier.

• Weird stuff in the managerial world here on Monday, as the Chicago Cubs surprisingly fired David Ross in order to steal Craig Counsell from the Brewers with the richest contract for a manager in the sport (five years, $40 million). Good for Counsell, and apparently Cubs catcher Willson Contreras approves.

• I don’t particularly care for NL Central drama, but I do think Travis Sawchik makes a good point about it here—which very much applies to hitting coaches as well.

• Speaking of staff, turns out James Click might not have been quite as in-demand as a lot of Jays fans thought, huh?

• Great stuff from the Athletic's Chad Jennings, who speaks with notable Jays fan Geddy Lee, learning about the Rush bassist's love of baseball, the Jays, and how he's become a somewhat unlikely curator of historic baseball memorabilia. Delightful.

• The mail bag will be out this week! I assure you! (Unless the GM meetings get crazy!)

• Lastly, here's something you don't see every day: Arjun Nimmala, the Blue Jays' most recent first round draft pick and an Indian-American, is the subject of a new “docuseries,” which follows him to his parents’ hometown in Andhra Pradesh and tells his life story as he gets gets acquainted with Indian sporting culture and meets up with other Indian baseball players. It appears as though you’d only be able to watch it in North America with a VPN, via Indian streaming service Disney+ Hotstar—yes, that Disney; clearly this is no small project—but that’s still pretty interesting.

And there’s another short Nimmala documentary called Beyond Boundaries: From Cricket to Baseball, which you can watch, via MLB.com. Marketing machine go brrrrrr

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