A Holiday Mail Bag!

On Tucker, on Bo, on Ernie, and Rogers! On projections, on trade talk, on Varsho, and the Dodgers!

Your paid support makes independent, thoughtful, grass-fed, naturally raised, free-range coverage of Toronto Blue Jays baseball possible. Thank you.

The hours until Christmas are quickly counting down as I write this, and it appears increasingly unlikely that Ross Atkins has anything to put under our trees.

Ah well, I say. HUMBUG! The business of onboarding Kyle Tucker—in the official sense, I mean, seeing as that process already appears to be underway on Instagram—and reuniting with Bo Bichette can wait until after the holidays. At least Mr. Low-hanging fruit hasn’t spoiled my mail bag!

And so here it is, just barely under the wire of my self-imposed Christmas Eve deadline, and full of outstanding reader-submitted questions and Jays-related ideas to chew on. Thank you so much to everyone who submitted to this on such short notice, thanks as always for the support for what I do, and I hope you all are already having a wonderful holiday season, no matter what it is you celebrate. (And that Ross gets his ass to a Boxing Day sale or something in order to make this up to us.)

And now it’s on to the mail bag! You know the drill!

As always, I have not read any of Griff’s answers…

---

---

Should I still be feeling heart broken? Should I still be staring at the ceiling imagining how just one base hit on either of those nights would have given all our lives meaning? I’m a grown ass man. — Fan590IdiotCallerWithOpinions

Thanks so much for the question and the support—and the name LOL—man! This is a great place to start, hard as it is to think about, because I think that’s all entirely fair. I mean, time heals all wounds and everything, but that was a mighty, mighty big one. FUCK! Honestly, I’m not sure I’ve even fully processed it all. The end of Game Seven, in particular, lives in a place that my brain won’t even let me access yet. Though, for obvious reasons, I’m quite OK with that. Not interested in reliving those memories just yet!

Now, all that can coexist, I think, with the understanding that it was an incredibly special team and run that I and we will also love and savour for the rest of our lives, and that ultimately what we get out of sports, and what drives our passion, is much more about the journey than the destination. But when the best team loses, and was the underdog, and was the more lovable group, and was the Toronto Blue Jays???? FUCK.

* * *

It’s silly season with lots of rumors, so of course discount this, but a personal friend who came up through the Cubs system and who’s BFF with a trainer still on the Cubs’ staff, tells me the trainer told him in October that the reason the Cubs have no interest in resigning Tucker is that the club thinks he’s “going to age worse than Kris Bryant did,” so they have no interest in the years/dollars Tucker’s seeking.

Even setting aside that hearsay, how much of a red flag is it for you that the Cubs aren’t pursuing Tucker? And, more generally, should it raise a red flag if a club doesn’t try to re-sign their own FAs? — Patrick C.

Thanks so much for the question and support, Patrick! And, wow, that’s definitely some fascinating intel. But while questions about Tucker’s health history are certainly fair game, that Bryant comment seems awfully hyperbolic. In four years in Colorado, Bryant has made just 712 trips to the plate—fewer than several guys made in 2025 alone. He’s averaged 42.5 games a year. I don’t think you could reasonably put a comp like that on Babe Ruth, and he’s been dead for 75 years. HEYO!

So I have a very tough time thinking about that regarding a guy who, yes, has missed some time these last couple of years, but hardly has an atrocious track record. I mean, in 2024 Tucker fractured his shin fouling off a ball—kind of a freak thing in my view—and he suffered a calf strain late last season while still getting to 597 plate appearances. Not exactly terrifying stuff on the surface. But the hyperbole does get the point across that people who’ve worked with him up close may have some very deep and very real concerns.

Is that what could be driving the Cubs’ lack of interest? Honestly, I sort of find that dubious, too.

If you look at the list of the biggest contracts in that team’s history you still see names like Jayson Heyward, Jon Lester, and Alfonso Soriano in the top five. Last year the biggest free agent they landed was Matthew Boyd at two years, $29 million. They should be one of the league’s marquee franchises, but their useless nepo baby owners seem happy to stay relative middleweights on the field while pocketing as much of the massive profit generated by their historic stadium as possible, while exploiting every bit of Wrigleyville real estate they can their grubby little hands on.

Honestly, I’m not sure they ever intended to take a serious run at Tucker, given where his price tag was obviously headed. Clearly that was true of the Astros as well, who traded him to Chicago last winter. I’d be lying if I said the whole situation—the two teams that know him best not seemingly interested—didn’t give me a little bit of pause, I guess. But that’s the game, right? If you’re signing major free agents like that you’re sticking your neck out. You’re paying more than anybody else was willing to.

I’d still be over the moon if the Jays managed to sign him, for whatever little that’s worth.

What I’d also say here is that there are a wide variety of reasons why teams may not pursue their own players into free agency. Financial ones; roster-related ones, like if you have a younger, cheaper player ready to take over; or simply just better options being available. Roster-building is a complex puzzle. So I don’t think, for example, that the Jays having little interest in a Chris Bassitt reunion says anything negative about the player. I’d say the same about Bo Bichette—great player I’m sure the Jays would love to have back, just maybe not Plan A, or maybe not a guy they want to jump at given the other pathways available. A wise man once said “we’re always thinking about how to get better.” Or, you know, some such pablum.

* * *

We’ve heard a lot about how there’s very little chance for the Jays to get both Tucker and Bo. Now, maybe that’s just the usual winter posturing, and they surprise everyone by landing both. But what I’m asking is: they kind of need to add two bats, don’t they?

My logic is this: the offense was obviously very good in 2025, but a lot of that was buoyed by guys having career years or bouncebacks. How likely is it that those guys (Kirk/Clement/Springer especially) repeat those performances? Meanwhile, is there anyone penciled in who we think could take meaningful steps forward? Santander, obviously. Barger, maybe? Do we get an entire season of Playoff Level Vladdy? That’d be pretty dope, obviously.

So, yeah, signing one of the Tucker/Bo/others cohort just fills the Bo-shaped hole in the lineup, without necessarily making it better. Am I crazy? Or more specifically, am I crazy for this specific thought? — the47thman

Thanks so much for the question and the support, 47thman! I definitely don’t think you’re crazy for thinking this, but I do think you might be underestimating where the Jays are currently at just a little bit.

Right now at FanGraphs their Depth Charts projections have the Jays ranked seventh in baseball in terms of projected WAR among position players (27.4), and fourth in the American League—just ahead of the Astros (27.3), and behind the Yankees (30.2), Orioles (28.6), and Mariners (27.9). Add a Tucker (4.4 projected WAR) or a Bichette (4.0) in place of Nathan Lukes (1.6) and you vault right up there with the Yankees—who are ahead of even the Dodgers on this front, tops in the majors.

Now, obviously those numbers include both defence and offence, but I think this is a pretty reasonable way to look at things. And if we drill down on some individual ones I think the projections are pretty reasonable, too.

I’d say that Vlad’s projection (5.2 WAR, 153 wRC+) is maybe on the high side, given what he did in the regular season last year (3.9, 137). And maybe Kirk’s is too, as it expects him to basically repeat his 2025 overall, and to hit a little bit better (122 projected wRC+ compared to 116 last season). But beyond that we’ve got:

• Springer dipping to a 123 wRC+ and a 2.6 WAR from 166 and 5.2.

• Santander only bouncing back to a 1.3 WAR and a 106 wRC+.

• Clement being about one win worse with a similar wRC+.

• Barger being just about the same guy (111 wRC+/2.4 WAR projected, compared to 107 and 2.2 in 2025)

• Giménez projecting better with the bat but overall not being as valuable as his 2.8 WAR season in 2024 in which he produced an 83 wRC+.

• Myles Straw coming back to earth (0.1 WAR and hardly any playing time after a 1.8 WAR year in ‘25).

• Varsho hitting much like 2024 and for some reason getting below average marks as a defender, making his projection (1.9 WAR in 595 PA) significantly down from ‘25 (2.2 WAR in 271 PA).

Obviously this stuff is not the be-all, end-all, and obviously adding two great players would be much better than just one, but even if Vlad and Kirk don’t quite hit their projections, I think there are actually a lot of opportunities for the other guys to make up for that and then some. Which, overall, puts them in a pretty great place, I’d say. Especially when you consider that their pitching staff is projecting the fifth-most WAR in baseball and third-most in the AL, too. (Overall their 46.0 WAR projection is the third-highest in MLB, tied with the Braves, and trailing only the Dodgers and Yankees.)

Yes, it’s bit of a quick and dirty way to look at it, and obviously the teams around them aren’t done yet—according to the same projections there remains almost 110 wins still to be claimed via the free agent market—but I do think that even if they “only” land one big bat, they’re in very good shape.

* * *

Is Ernie playing everyday next year? I can understand fans, casual or otherwise, overwhelmed by his playoff performance wanting him to play everyday. But I’ve read several beat reporters also penciling him as a regular without qualifiers such as “super-utility”. Did I miss the memo? Did he solve his same side hitting woes? Or is his glove so good that the team is willing to ride the BABIP rollercoaster for 162 games? — Will

Great question, Will. Thanks for it, and for the support! Honestly, I think the Ernie folk hero stuff started long before the playoffs, but you’re right that seems to be a perception of him out there that doesn’t quite match the reality. All things considered, though, it’s still a pretty good reality.

Yes, Clement’s 75 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season was pretty glaring. Even if we add in his incredible playoffs, in which he slashed .407/.421/.537 against RHP in 54 at-bats, his OPS in the split only jumps to .667, which is still well below average.

Thing is, this maybe isn’t quite as big a deal as “75 wRC+ against right-handed pitching” makes it sound. For one, a good chunk of that awfulness came way back in April, when Ernie produced just eight singles and zero walks in 48 plate appearances against right-handers, leading to an ungodly -14 wRC+ for the month. His best month against them, apart from October, was September, when he produced a 120 wRC+ in the split. While the months in between were hardly great for him—he had a 81 wRC+ vs. RHP from the start of May through the end of August—that it turned around at the end at least seems encouraging.

For two, “turned around” is really only an accurate way to describe this if we’re just considering his 2025. Clement had a 104 wRC+ against RHP in 2024, meaning that in total over two years (excluding the playoffs) his mark is 87. And while that’s obviously not great, it’s better than 75. And it is, I think, easily passable given the incredibly high level of defence he brings, the versatility, the teammate stuff, the fun story he was, etc., etc. There’s an opportunity in there for him to be a much better base stealer too, I think.

I mean, they shouldn’t be handing out plate appearances just for being a good story, but you know what I mean.

Then there’s the BABIP stuff you mention. When we look at things like strikeouts and walks against right-handers, it’s not like he has problems there. There’s some difference in the direction of where his batted balls are going depending on which side the pitcher is throwing from, and whether he’s hitting it on the ground or in the air, but he’s producing the same exit velocities against lefties and righties too. Maybe the underlying skills in the split are actually fine and the BABIP gods have just distributed his hits unevenly.

Either way, the split is a mild concern, and I certainly would like the look of the roster better if they had a player so good it forces Clement into more of a utility role—for example, if they landed both Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker. But it wouldn’t be a priority for me to make a change here. Even with the rough split he was a three-win player in 2025—3.2 WAR per FanGraphs to be precise, which was the same mark produced by Steven Kwan, Xander Bogaerts, and Trent Grisham—and guys who can do that while only being projected to make $4.3 million don’t grow on trees.

* * *

Hey Stoeten, I thought about skipping the platitudes and what not, but I truly do love your work and I think people should hear that kind of thing as often as possible.

Anyway, who would be an under the radar trade market guy (or couple of guys) who would be exciting for the Jays to get if they miss out on both Bo and Tucker? I’m looking for names that it would be worth giving up Nimmala for. I just watched my hockey team give up the second best dman in the world, so I’ve got transaction brain.

I would have probably identified Ketel Marte for this, but he’s hardly under the radar now. Anyone come to mind? — Dave H.

Thanks so much for the kind words and the support, Dave! And my condolences on the departure of Mr. Hughes.

As for your question, I’ll be straight-up here and admit that thinking about trade possibilities is not something I tend to spend a lot of time doing. It just takes a lot of effort to devise scenarios that have a greater-than-99% chance of never working out, so I’m happy to just wait until a deal actually happens before I really think too much about it. And often those are even more surprising than anything us outsiders might have come up with anyway. I certainly didn’t see the Andrés Giménez trade coming last winter, for example, and I know I’m far from alone.

That said, I can throw you a couple names beyond Marte, even if finding teams actually willing to part with talent for prospects at this time of year isn’t easy either.

One that is clearly headed into rebuild mode is St. Louis, and Brendan Donovan is a guy who checks a bunch of boxes for the Jays. He’s a multi-position defender who can get his bat on the ball and is difficult to strike out. He wouldn’t be a middle-of-the-order guy like a Tucker, Bo, or Marte, but his 119 wRC+ last season was exactly in line with his career mark, and he’s got two years left to go before free agency.

On the other hand, he’s got a pretty heavy platoon split though (he struggles against lefties), hasn’t been the most durable player in his career, and is currently coming off of abdominal surgery (though he should be ready to go for spring). So… not sure that’s a guy you’d give up a Nimmala for, necessarily. But he’s good and there’s some kind of a fit there.

That’s not quite the case for Byron Buxton, though in an alternate universe—one where the Twins didn’t just solve some of their debt problems by selling a minority stake in the team, and where the Jays wouldn’t be scared off by massive durability concerns (and maybe swing-and-miss)—he’d certainly intrigue me. Buxton is coming off a five-win season in which he hit 35 home runs, would offer some cover in centre in case the Jays lose Daulton Varsho next winter, and certainly offers star power—when on the field at least. Hard to see that one, though.

I’m sure people are thinking of Steven Kwan here, though I’d argue that the Jays adding a second Ernie Clement maybe doesn’t make a ton of sense—and that the Guardians don’t seem likely to punt on the season at this stage anyway. Nico Hoerner is another guy sort of in that bucket, and also not a guy the Cubs are going to be terribly motivated to move. But both are excellent players whose names I’ve seen in rumours and could theoretically be Plan C types for Ross and company.

Would the Pirates turn around and flip Brandon Lowe now that they’ve acquired him from the Rays? I highly doubt it. But he’d theoretically be easier to acquire now that he’s out of the division, I guess.

Does Jake Cronenworth make some sense? Certainly not for a high-end prospect, but maybe if the Padres were willing to take back Berríos?

Alec Bohm? Lars Nootbaar? Luis Robert Jr.? Not moving the needle at all for me with these sorts of names. But I assure you there are undoubtedly many more possibilities I haven’t even begun to think of. Or… well… at least I hope that there would be.

Just to be safe though, they should probably just sign Tucker and Bo.

* * *

‘Tis the Season to check MLBTR hourly. And to wish my favorite baseball writer a Merry Christmas! So here’s my crazy trade pitch/mailbag question.

What do you think of Berrios, Gimenez and a prospect for Francisco Lindor? Apparently as the alpha dog in NY Lindor has been a bitch, but here he’d be a personality that would be forced to mesh with the boys. I think this is a sneaky good idea. — BobTV

Thanks so much for the kind words and the support, Bob! And may I extend the warmest of seasons greetings to you and yours as well!

As for the question though… well… first of all, that’s not exactly how I’d characterize Lindor, the Mets’ situation, or Lindor’s place in the Mets situation. I’m very much Team Lindor in any of that stuff. And so, it seems, are the Mets. Because, secondly, I think we’re a bit late with this one. The team already ditched Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers in exchange for the universally beloved Marcus Semien last month, and then just this week got rid of Jeff McNeil—both guys who have reportedly feuded with Lindor. So, I really don’t think they’re moving Lindor at this point, but rather focusing on making it even more his team.

Even if they had wanted to, Lindor became a 10-and-5 player at the conclusion of the 2025 season—10 years of MLB service time, five years with the same team—which granted him the right to block any trade.

And even if he did want a change of scenery, and even if the Jays were a team he’d be willing to come to, your suggested package of a couple of underwater contracts and a prospect is, unfortunately, too light to get a deal done for one of the ten or so best position players in game. It would be neat to see Giménez and Lindor traded for each other a second time, I suppose. But the Mets are trying to win too, they don’t have to care about money, and this would be a step back for them.

Plus, I’m sure a lot of teams would be willing to offer them even more. At this point Lindor is owed $192 million over the next six years, with $30 million of that deferred. Even at his age (32) he’d get more on the free agent market than that, I’d wager. So, in a world where he was actually being dealt, we’d much more likely be talking about young, cheap, controllable talent coming back the other way than expensive guys last seen putting up ~1 WAR seasons.

Great player, though. I love the idea. If there was a realistic way to get him I’d be behind it.

* * *

Who’s the heir apparent to Varsho? — Will

I mean, I know this is exactly why you’re asking, but there really isn’t one, right? Daulton Varsho on a contract extension would probably be my best guess at this point.

Obviously there are reasons to think that might not happen. Varsho hasn’t been durable, it’s unclear how much his throwing arm will eventually bounce back from last year’s shoulder surgery, I think it’s fair to wonder how he’ll age, and clearly he’s a tough player to evaluate offensively. But, ultimately, I tend to think that the Jays won’t want to leave themselves exposed at such an important defensive position, and that the reasons they were drawn to Varsho in the first place are probably still pretty strong.

Meanwhile, it’s still way too soon to be thinking about Jake Cook, even if I know from being a regular reader of Future Blue Jays that the organization is high on last summer’s third-rounder. And though Jonathan Clase seemed like an interesting potential hedge when he was acquired from the Mariners in the summer of 2024, I have no reason to believe that the Jays would actually turn to him as an everyday player while in Championship-or-Bust mode—and that’s if he even remains in the organization beyond this spring, which will be difficult because he’s out of options.

So, yeah. It seems like it’s going to have to be someone from outside the organization if it isn’t going to be Varsho. Unless they convert someone, I guess. Should Arjun get himself an outfield glove? I’d bet Ernie or Giménez could do it!

* * *

Let’s assume one of Bo or Tucker is signed and no other roster moves are made. Is that team better than the group that started the season 2025 season? — Will

Oh easily, I’d say. Just using those Depth Charts projections I was discussing above, if we use the Wayback Machine to go back to the end of March, the Jays were projected to put up 46.1 WAR. Right now they’re already at 46.0, and that’s before adding one of the big bats in your hypothetical, which would bump them up at least another two or three wins depending on whose playing time gets reduced. They also at the time had the fourth-highest projection in the AL, and eighth-best in MLB. Now those rankings are second and third—and, again, that’s before the big bat.

Even if we don’t love the projection stuff, I think that the additions of Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, and Shane Bieber in the rotation, Gausman’s second-half resurgence, Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland being added to the bullpen (along with the emergence of some important young arms), Springer’s resurrection, guys like Kirk and Barger establishing themselves a bit more…—there’s just a lot less uncertainty with this roster now, too. I’m much more confident in it.

* * *

Which mainstream media market is worse in your opinion, from an overall sports perspective. New York or Toronto? Honestly thought it was New York for the longest time, but I'm starting to see a lot of “hit pieces” up here, while I find the New York media is mostly just going for the best pun. — JP

Thanks so much for the question and the support, JP! That’s a really interesting one, though I kind of think it would be impossible for me to answer—I definitely don’t consume enough New York media, especially when it comes to sports other than baseball, to have much of a read on that aspect of it—and probably impossible for anyone to answer, honestly.

Every market of any size is going to have its share of clowns. Its Simmonses. Its DiMannos. Its Coxes, assuming he still exists. Its guys weirdly mad that Jays fans seemed to have no interest in meat-headedly shrieking “BERRÍOS ABANDONED THE TEAM!” for weeks on end in the middle of the team’s most joyous month in 30 years. Here in Toronto we may even have more than our fair share. But one thing I’m certain about is that the volume of noise coming from a market like New York is always going to be orders of magnitude higher simply because of population.

Beyond that, I just really don’t know. Perhaps Mitch Marner—or Anthony Volpe—would have stronger views.

* * *

Hey Stoeten!! Love the work you provide! A business question for you:

Is it possible that Rogers looks at the Blue Jays as a marketing vehicle for their communications brand? For instance, maybe they’re OK losing a little bit of money during the Jays season knowing that tens of millions of people are looking at their brand. I mean, I can’t imagine the money Sportsnet made during the playoff run. Or how may people may have signed up to cell phone or internet plan.

It seems as though this is a huge financial advantage the Jays have in that there are so many areas they can make money on a deep playoff run. They’ve already done a good job of reinvesting some of that playoff money to the roster. But, now I’m greedy and want more!! — Steve D.

Thanks so much for the question and the support, Steve! And you’re definitely right that there are a multitude of very clear benefits Rogers sees when the Jays are good and making deep playoff runs like the one we just witnessed. I’d go as far as saying that those exist even when the team isn’t good, the effect is simply magnified when ratings go through the roof.

But what I’d stress here is that this is probably not so much to do with selling individual phone or cable plans themselves, but in terms of repetition, brand recall, etc.

Rogers knows how meaningful visibility is, because not only do they sell it to other companies, they hoard a lot of it themselves. They’re not just slapping their branding in places they were unable to sell to TD or Budweiser. They know what stadium ads are worth, they know what TV ads are worth, they know what branded segments of the broadcast are worth, and rather than wring every last dime out of external companies, the covet it themselves. That tells you a lot, I think.

When a season goes like this one did, and you own the team, the building, and the broadcast network? I’m no economagician but that’s got to be noticeable even within a company the size of Rogers. We’re likely at that point—a point they’ve been deliberately building to in the Shapiro era, and spending ahead of revenues (especially during the pandemic) to get to—where the Jays have become much more than what they once were viewed as: a mere line item on the budget sheet of the media division of a corporate behemoth primarily still interested in being a telecom.

Now, surely the way the Jays, and sports in general, add to Rogers’ bottom line is still dwarfed by the company’s wireless division, which took in $19.3 billion (CAD) in revenue in 2023, and that same year purchased Shaw Communications for $26 billion. But it feels like it’s grown significantly. They’ve now got MLSE all to themselves. The Jays are a crown jewel and spending accordingly. It feels like they finally got the message—saw the untapped potential—and are genuinely making good on it.

That said, it feels rather filthy to be cheering on a corporation like this. Particularly this specific corporation. And I always feel the need to make clear that, at least in the Blue Jays’ case, Rogers was very strongly compelled to act more like a big market club when they were cut off from receiving revenue sharing dollars a few CBA’s back. So it’s important to never let anyone tell you that all this has happened through benevolence of ownership.

But after years upon years of watching this team being treated like a corporate afterthought, I don’t particularly care how it happened. The Blue Jays are a valued piece of the empire and are finally being run the way they should have been all along.

Long may it continue.

Now go get them both.

---

Twitter ⚾ Bluesky ⚾ Patreon ⚾ Facebook

⚾ Want to support without going through Substack? You could always send cash to stoeten@gmail.com on Paypal or via Interac e-Transfer. I assure you I won’t say no. ⚾