A sentence or two about every one of the 62 Blue Jays players attending spring training
Spring has finally sprung! Over the weekend the Grapefruit League schedule kicked off with the Blue Jays visiting the Pirates in Bradenton, making their first steps in a long journey toward hopefully not embarrassing themselves in the playoffs nearly as badly as they did last year.
The crack of the bat! The buzz of the crowd! The, uh, smell (?) of the ball! The confusion of trying to figure out just who in the hell is on the field after the fourth inning!
As always, this is a time of year to get acquainted with not just the players who’ll be representing the Blue Jays for the bulk of the coming season, but a bunch of guys we may only see for a minute — if at all.
So let’s do exactly that. Not by actually watching guys go through the motions over the final few innings of each day’s Grapefruit League action, but by reading. As the title says, here’s a sentence or two about every one of the 62 Blue Jays players attending spring training…
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Infielders
Addison Barger: Very possibly the team's best position player prospect, last week he was ranked 53rd in baseball by FanGraphs on the basis of power, bat speed, and a great 2022. A 2B/3B type, he's getting reps in the outfield this spring and should be one of the club’s first call-ups when injuries occur — if he doesn’t outright steal a job. *COUGH*
Brandon Belt: His surgically repaired knee — which he says feels great — may hold the key to the entire Blue Jays season. In 2020 and 2021, when it last was healthy, he crushed right-handed pitchers to the tune of .303/.404/.638 (175 wRC+) over 453 plate appearances.
Bo Bichette: The Jays’ maddening superstar will likely get to four or five WAR one way or another, but not without a bunch of fans complaining about his defence or pitch selection along the way!
Cavan Biggio: While I remain somewhat skeptical, the shift ban might not just add a few hits to his totals but force pitchers to respect him more, allowing him to take even better advantage of his exceptional eye at the plate. Prove me wrong, Cavan!
Matt Chapman: If he hits the way he did in the second half (129 wRC+) and plays defence like he did in 2021 (+17 OAA) this is, like, a six win player. Maybe more.
Santiago Espinal: We're talking small sample here — just 128 total plate appearances — but his 167 wRC+ against lefties in the first half turned into a 66 wRC+ against them in the second and really changed the nature of his season. You don't lose your job to Whit Merrifield for nothing, I suppose.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Ho ho ho, if 2022 was a down year I’d sure like to see what an up year looks like!!! (No, but seriously, Vladdy, please.)
Spencer Horwitz: Suckers, they be sayin’ it was maybe an odd move giving a 40-man spot to a 1B/DH type who dropped off at Triple-A after ripping up Double-A in the first half of 2022 as a 24-year-old, but there’s on-base skill and a little bit of power here. Brandon Belt insurance — at least until next year when he’ll be insurance for someone else.
Leo Jiminez: A legit shortstop who can get on base, but will there be enough power — or health — there for him to ever look like anything more than fringe big leaguer? Likely ticketed for Double-A.
Otto Lopez: A nifty little .305/.373/.420 slash line for his minor league career, but has averaged just 5.5 homers per 600 plate appearances, and is more a 2B/LF than SS/CF defensively, so it's going to be tough for him to be more than fungible depth. I wrote before Barger even began his hot spring start that, no, Lopez should not be the 26th man on the roster, and I stand by that.
Orelvis Martinez: Not only does the phrase "swing and a miss" describe the Jays' aggressive decision to make Martinez the youngest regular in the Double-A Eastern League in 2022, it explains why it was a mistake. Orelvis is talented enough to recapture some of the prospect shine that he lost last season, but 30 home runs can only do so much to hide the ugly .286 OBP and 28.5% strikeout rate. (ZiPS loves him though!)
Whit Merrifield: So you’re telling me the Jays' optimal lineup against lefties is going to feature one of the catchers at DH, Espinal at second base, and Merrifield — whose wRC+ (88) was down for the fourth straight year as he produced some truly ugly Statcast numbers at the plate — in left field? Forgive me for not wholeheartedly believing in his September, but bring me a Steve Pearce-type already.
Outfielders
Wynton Bernard (NRI): Could non-roster invitee Wynton Bernard be that Steve Pearce-type the Blue Jays need? In a word, no — but in several more words: no, because his jaw-dropping Triple-A slash line of .333/.387/.590 last year was heavily influenced by his home park (Albuquerque) and all the other incredibly hitter-friendly stadiums of the PCL. (The speed appears legit though.)
Vinny Capra: Buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo.
Kevin Kiermaier: So I guess we’re doing this, huh? He seems like a great guy, the bat won’t be awful, the defence should still be elite when he’s healthy — it’s an excellent fourth outfielder profile that unfortunately seems likely to be given everyday at-bats.
Nathan Lukes: You could have worse Kiermaier insurance than a guy coming off two pretty solid Triple-A seasons who last year also showed some good instincts on the bases (20 steals in 23 attempts). The 28-year-old has three minor league options years left, so he might want to get used to Buffalo.
George Springer: I’d joke about putting him in bubble wrap until October or something like that, but I want nothing more than just for Springer to be healthy. He is so ridiculously good.
Daulton Varsho: The Randal Grichuk to Kiermaier’s Kevin Pillar. What could go wrong?
Catchers
Stevie Berman (NRI): The Bermanator took some walks and added eight homers in 67 games for the Bisons last year after coming over from the Twins organization. He appears to own catching gear.
Rob Brantly (NRI): The 33-year-old Brantly is heading into his 14th pro season and has spent time in the following organizations: Detroit, Miami, Chicago (AL), Seattle, Cincinnati, Chicago (AL), Atlanta, Cleveland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, New York (AL) and now Toronto. He has 135 games of big league experience, and has produced a 68 wRC+ over 456 PA.
Zach Britton (NRI): The Zach Britton who was not left sitting in the visitors' bullpen at Rogers Centre by Buck Showalter back in 2016 had a productive year (despite striking out a lot) for High-A Vancouver in 2022 — .239/.390/.441 (136 wRC+) with seven homers in 236 PA and 10 steals in 12 tries. That got him a call up to Double-A New Hampshire, which is where I'd guess he'll start 2023.
Phil Clarke (NRI): Clarke got fourth round money in the ninth round from the Jays back in 2019, not long after he was a big part of Vanderbilt's College World Series championship. He's had a nice strikeout-to-walk ratio as a pro so far, including in Double-A in 2022, but everything else looks downright pedestrian.
Danny Jansen: By wRC+ the top 10 hitters in baseball with at least 300 plate appearances since July 2021 are, in order: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Danny Jansen, Jose Altuve, and Julio Rodriguez. Sample size and arbitrary endpoints be damned!
Alejandro Kirk: Kirk’s 155 wRC+ in the first half of 2022 dropped to 95 in the second half, which means we probably won’t see him ranking fourth among catchers in plate appearances again. Though, seeing as Jansen only makes the list above because he’s logged just 331 plate appearances since July 2021, that might be easier said than done. (Drew Fairservice had some wise words on Kirk this week over at Long Way from Sunlight.)
Andres Sosa (NRI): Undrafted out of Dallas Baptist in 2021, Sosa was old for his level in 2022 but had a respectable year in Vancouver, highlighted by a 16.5% walk rate. Rumour has it he also owns catching gear.
Left-handed pitchers
Jimmy Burnette (NRI): With mid-90s velocity and 94 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings between Vancouver and New Hampshire in 2022, Burnette may be on his way to becoming a viable 'pen lefty. But first he's going to need to cut down on those walks (34) and HBPs (8).
Brandon Eisert (NRI): Back in November, D.M. Fox noted that he had asked Joe Sclafani, the Jays' director of player development, "about players beyond the top prospects who caught his eye this season," and "Eisert was one of the first names he mentioned." Though he doesn't have a typical hard-throwing relief profile, the lefty Eisert just kept getting guys out as he advanced through three levels in 2021, then had a very good season for the Bisons last year.
Paul Fry (NRI): A lefty reliever with a low-90s fastball he combines with a slider, Fry can strike guys out and had a nice run with the Orioles in 2020 (11.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 2.45 ERA, 3.69 FIP) but has 44 walks in his 60 big league innings since. Could theoretically prove useful if he figures that out.
Yusei Kikuchi: Though it’s foolish to take more than literally nothing from a single spring training outing — particularly one in February — it was virtually impossible not to be encouraged over the weekend by the way MLB’s new pitch clock seemed to force Kikuchi to stop overthinking it and just throw. Hey, we’ve gotta cling to something right?
Tim Mayza: Right-handers slashed .291/.342/.476 off of Mayza in 2022, which is not what you want from your lone bullpen lefty here in the three-batter-rule era — especially when 60% of the batters he's facing hit from the right side. Yikes.
Jimmy Robbins (NRI): Had an impressive run through three levels in 2022 after missing 2020 because of the pandemic and 2021 due to Tommy John. However, per TSN's Scott Mitchell — who ranks Robbins the Jays' number 38 prospect — the mid-90s velocity he once had has yet to return, leaving him as a Zach Logue type who “will have to prove it at every level and won’t have much margin for error in the big leagues, but sometimes these guys surprise and just keep getting outs.”
Hyun Jin Ryu: Entering the final season of a four-year, $80 million contract that announced a new era of Blue Jays spending, Ryu could get healthy, provide some much-needed rotation depth in the second half, and become a really nice story. It, uh, could also go the other way.
Ricky Tiedemann (NRI): The Alek Manoah to Kikuchi’s Tanner Roark? The Johnny Doe to Nate Pearson’s Dirk Diggler? Either way, an exciting new talent who had a very impressive spring debut in Dunedin on Tuesday.
Right-handed pitchers
Luke Bard (NRI): Daniel Bard's younger brother turned 32 in November and has yet to find any real big league success despite a few opportunities in the show. On the other hand, he throws 94 and the lowest percentile his fastball spin has ever ranked in is the 99th, so — like the Yankees, Rays, and Dodgers before them — the Jays have themselves a little experiment to work on.
Anthony Bass: Bass kept the strikeout gains he'd made in the first part of 2022 after he was traded from the Marlins to the Jays, but his walk rate, home run rate, K/BB, and subsequently his FIP, went back to looking more like they did in his -0.4 WAR 2021. Slightly concerning.
Chris Bassitt: One of the likely reasons the Jays were concerned about Alejandro Kirk being away from the club this spring is that it’s a big task to learn to catch Bassitt's six-pitch mix. Fortunately Danny Jansen seems to have been given that job anyway — and Bassitt, according to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, will be experimenting with calling his own game using PitchCom this spring. (Something José Berríos also did during his debut on Tuesday).
José Berríos: Hey, if he’s bad again at least there are only five years left on his deal after this one.
Hagen Danner: Drafted as a catcher in the second round of the 2017 draft, seven picks ahead of Daulton Varsho, in Danner the Blue Jays may finally have their version of a reliever who comes up mid-season throwing in the upper-90s that nobody has ever heard of.
Junior Fernández (NRI): After a long ascendancy through the Cardinals organization — he spent time at High-A for five straight seasons starting in 2015 — the hard-thrower ended up with the Pirates in 2022, and was passed first to the Yankees, then the Jays, via waivers this winter. His fastball averages 99 mph but he's yet to figure anything else out.
Bowden Francis (NRI): Got a couple outs for the Jays in a 7-1 loss to the Red Sox back in April, but ultimately ended up outrighted off of the 40-man in the middle of the season, clearing waivers, then going back to Buffalo. While there he posted a 6.59 ERA in nearly 100 innings.
Yimi Garcia: Yimi had his best strikeout month in September — something we'd been waiting for from him all year — but was lit up tune of a .314/.357/.471 slash line. A solid first year in Toronto for him, but it always felt like there should be more there.
Kevin Gausman: Since 1944, no pitcher who has qualified for the ERA title has had a worse BABIP than Gausman's .363 last year. The Jays' new outfield defence should help him in that regard, though he likely won't be quite as stingy with walks and strikeouts as he was in 2022 — still a beauty though!
Chad Green: Newly signed to a multi-year deal despite rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, outside his rookie year of 2016, Green has basically never had a season that wasn't very good or better. If all goes well he'll be ready to give the Jays a roster headache by midseason.
Thomas Hatch: Starting pitching depth is so valuable that Hatch has managed to hang on to his 40-man spot despite his Buffalo ERA going from 4.04 in 2021 to 4.57 in 2022, and his strikeout rate from 25.6% to 20.3%. He'll be out of options next year.
Adrian Hernandez (NRI): A "screwball" artist with a real shot at being a part of the Jays' bullpen, Hernandez was awful after — and just prior to — going on the IL with shoulder trouble in June. D.M. Fox had a great look at what he might bring to the big leagues, if back to his old self, back in December.
Drew Hutchison (NRI): Hutch clutch! It’s fun to see the Jays’ 2015 opening day starter back in the organization, but if he actually ends up taking the ball more than a couple times for the 2023 Jays something has gone very, very, very wrong.
Jay Jackson (NRI): Drafted in the same year that the Blue Jays took David "D.B" "why didn't he just tag him?" Cooper — ?!?! — Jackson didn't produce a 20% strikeout rate in any of his first five — ?!?! — cracks at Triple-A, but came back a different pitcher after spending four of five years in Japan starting in 2016. MLB success has eluded him, but last year — after missing the first couple months of the year due to injury — he posted a 2.29 ERA/2.90 FIP with 25 strikeouts to four walks in 19 2/3 innings for Gwinnett in the Atlanta system.
Hayden Juenger (NRI): Drafted as a reliever, Juenger's numbers maybe don't jump off the page — 33 Ks to 16 BBs in 32 2/3 innings with a 3.31 ERA/5.34 FIP after moving up to Buffalo last year — but the Jays like his ability to go once through an order enough that they built him up last year to be a bulk guy/opener. The hard fastball that he pairs with a solid slider and changeup could be a factor in the majors in 2023 (presumably if the walks come down).
Casey Lawrence (NRI): A good soldier who, including being drafted, has been acquired by the Blue Jays five different times — most coming not long after having been allowed to reach free agency by the Jays themselves. He put up a sparkling 2.79 ERA over 23 starts for Buffalo last year, but in a big league context is an emergency starter at best.
Alek Manoah: Manoah has set the bar so high so quickly that it's had to not be a little bit scared about regression. But then I look at the way left-handed batters hit his four-seamer and slider in 2022 — pitches he used 39% and 20% of the time against them respectively — and I wonder if it's just as likely that he could actually be better.
Matt Peacock (NRI): A waiver pickup from the Royals in the middle of last season, Peacock was outrighted off the 40-man when the Jays signed Jackie Bradley Jr. last August but ended up going unclaimed and staying in Buffalo. He found some extra swing-and-miss with the Bisons than he'd shown in previous Triple-A stops, but that's not enough to actually get excited about unless several other things click.
Nate Pearson: Another year, another chance for Pearson to stay healthy and translate his incredible raw stuff into big league results — this time as a reliever. He didn’t look great in his Grapefruit League debut on Saturday, despite is fastball topping out at 100.8 mph, but with two option years still remaining the clock isn’t ticking too loud just yet.
Zach Pop: A work in progress who saw changes in his pitch mix (more slider usage) and release points (both horizontally and vertically) after being acquired from the Marlins last summer, presumably in hopes of wringing some more swing-and-miss out of his 89th percentile fastball velocity. A power arm who'll likely be up and down from Buffalo all year.
Jackson Rees (NRI): An undrafted reliever who impressed early before losing 2020 to the pandemic and 2021 to Tommy John, Rees has only thrown 19 competitive innings since 2019, but continues to turn heads. He spoke at length about his unique baseball journey with Blue Jays Nation recently.
Trevor Richards: Maybe it's the fan in me talking, but even though the strikeout numbers are impressive and he's probably the kind of guy I'd be intrigued by if another organization were to designate him for assignment, I'm about done here — especially with him being out of options. The situation will sort itself out, I know, but Richards’ roster spot would look a whole lot better with a couple of optionable guys cycling through it instead.
Sem Robberse (NRI): The 21-year-old from Zeist in the Netherlands — the same hometown as Bert Blyleven — reportedly has a feel for pitching well beyond his years, but lacks the velocity at this point to be more than a back-end type. If another tick or two on his 91 mph fastball were to come, according to TSN's Scott Mitchell, his "prospect stock could shoot through the roof." (Worth noting: He averaged 93 and maxed out at 94.3 in his spring debut on Tuesday in Clearwater.)
Jordan Romano: One of the best relievers in baseball.
Erik Swanson: He'll have a hard time shaking the fact that he's the reliever with one good season who the Jays gave up Teoscar Hernández for, but it was a hell of a season, and the fact that he was tougher on left-handed hitters (.226 wOBA) than in his impressive work against right-handers (.248) makes the questions about Tim Mayza being the only lefty on the 40-man a whole lot less important.
Zach Thompson (NRI): Posting a 5.18 ERA and getting designated for assignment by the Pirates certainly looks bad, but if there's something here it wouldn't be the first time they've screwed up with a pitcher. And Thompson posted a 3.24 ERA/3.69 FIP over 75 innings with the Marlins in 2021 after an impressive minor league run of success dating back to 2018.
Trent Thornton: Because he’s got one option year remaining he’s not quite in the same category for me as Richards, but I still wonder how much longer he can maintain his roster spot. Would not surprise me in the slightest to see one or both moved for a depth piece that fits the Jays’ roster better — a guy who can start, or a right-handed bench bat — once teams start finalizing their rosters ahead of opening day.
Mitch White: “It’s a rough delivery that he doesn’t repeat, one of maybe three reasons to think he’s a reliever in the long run, but it’s an electric arm attached to a great athlete, an excellent pickup.” Oh, wait, that’s Keith Law on Nick Frasso, who the Jays used to acquire White last summer, and who Klaw ranked the number 17 prospect in a loaded Dodgers system. (“Mitch White’s best position is being on the IL” was the conclusion Nick Ashbourne came to during last week’s return of our podcast, Blue Jays Happy Hour, and it’s hard to disagree.)
Yosver Zulueta: He was "only" at 97-98 in his spring debut against the Phillies on Tuesday, but that he's back and healthy after shoulder and knee trouble at the end of last season is the important thing. A wild card for the Jays' bullpen for late in the season, provided he doesn't force himself into the rotation picture instead — or be forced.
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Thanks for the "why didn't he just tag him?" reference...
ZiPS also fond Wynton Bernard who I think it worth a look just to hear Buck say his name.