After Lindor, can the Mets still compete with the Jays for George Springer?
Mets team president Sandy Alderson joined Jon Heyman on a podcast this week, speaking with him about the luxury tax, trading for Lindor, George Springer, and more.
It’s not often that I transcribe interviews from opposing executives, but it’s also not often that a Blue Jays’ off-season seems inextricably linked to the dealings of one specific other team. The New York Mets, thanks to new owner Steve Cohen and his expectation of a World Series victory in three to five years, are the other team that has been viewed as particularly aggressive this winter. They’re the team that was able to land the much-coveted Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. And, of course, they’re the team the Blue Jays are vying with for the services of George Springer.
So when Mets club president Sandy Alderson joined Jon Heyman on this week’s edition of Heyman’s podcast, Big Time Baseball, I thought it would be best that I tune in. And it turns out that I made a good choice. Not only did Alderson supply us with plenty of tea leaves to read when it comes to how the Mets may play the rest of their off-season — and how that may affect the Blue Jays’ options — but he pulled back the curtain on his own operation in a way that can maybe help Jays fans better understand their own team’s choices.
Let’s go to the transcript!
On the luxury tax threshold
The Mets took on $8.6 million in 2021 salary earlier in the winter when they signed catcher James McCann to a four-year deal. They added $12 million last week in the form of Carlos Carrasco, and a projected $19 million for Francisco Lindor, both of whom were acquired from Cleveland. This gives the Mets a projected Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payroll of $180.6 million according to Cot's. The CBT threshold is $210 million, which gives them $29.4 million to work with before they begin to incur penalties.
They could add Springer and stay under the threshold, but that's about all they'd be able to do without shedding salary elsewhere. And if reports from last week about the team wanting to save $5 to $10 million so they can add salary in-season are correct, it’s going to be quite tricky.
Obviously Cohen could make things easier for his club by allowing Alderson to spend beyond the CBT threshold.
Here’s what Alderson told Heyman when asked about that very possibility.
“Well, it's a decision we'll have to make. We're not close enough yet that it has had a significant impact on us. Getting Lindor and his salary, together with Carlos Carrasco, definitely moves the number up significantly. Look, the luxury tax is the luxury tax. We're aware of where that line is drawn. We haven't determined at this point whether we're going to be below it or under it. But just because we're a big market club doesn't mean that we don't have to make choices. It's as important to have discipline with a big market club as it is with a small market club. In fact, it's more so. Because with a big market club you have lots more options. There are thing that, with respect to a small market club, you don't even consider because they're just not possible. Here we have a larger menu of possibilities. But that doesn't mean that you don't need to be disciplined, and it doesn't mean that you don't have to make choices. So, we'll see where the off-season takes us. But obviously the luxury tax is in the back of our minds.”
If the choices are, as Alderson says, between being either “below” or “under” the threshold, that’s some pretty great news for the Blue Jays. But I don’t think anybody should go off celebrating just yet. Even with Robinson Canó's $24 million coming back onto the books next year, and Francisco Lindor potentially taking up a big chunk of payroll, the Mets have Marcus Stroman, Jeurys Familia, and Noah Syndergaard all reaching free agency at the end of the season, and right now have just $84 million committed for 2022. They make it all work somehow. Thing is, they'd probably like to have some money left to pay someone to pitch for them in 2022 -- be it those guys or someone else -- so it's won’t be easy. (Note: An earlier version of this post suggested backloading Springer’s deal, but because the CBT uses average annual values that would not work and the comment has been removed.)
Also interesting in that quote, I thought, was the bit about having “a larger menu of possibilities” when you’re a big market club. The Jays are definitely reading that same menu this winter, which is unquestionably a good thing. Some might say that they’re taking way too long to figure out what to eat though.
On the Lindor trade
The Jays were reportedly the team that finished second in the Lindor sweepstakes. But unlike the Mets, it seems as though Lindor had been on the Blue Jays’ radar for quite some time. He had, at the very least, been on Jays fans’ radar. And when a team — possibly the Jays — stepped up their offer last week, that’s when the Mets’ offer really came together.
Who does this information comfort, exactly? No one. But it’s interesting to hear Alderson’s side of the deal.
“We started talking to Cleveland back, really, in November. The initial conversations were about players other than Lindor and Carrasco. Just, you know, kind of an opening conversation to talk about who might be available there and who might be available from us. At the time, I don't recall us even talking about Lindor or Carrasco. And then, over time, it became clearer to us, just reading the media reports and so forth, that Lindor might be available. There were some conversations about, you know, just a one-off with Lindor. There were conversations about a one-off with Carrasco. I mean, shortstop wasn't our most glaring weakness. But we definitely needed some pitching. Then we came back and ask about both, and it really came to a head at this time last week -- like Monday of last week -- and it got serious. I think that was because some other clubs had also stepped up and they (Cleveland) felt like they needed to make a decision.
“You know, what's interesting is the trade market has worked at a little different pace than the free agent market, and I think that in some cases clubs are afraid that a team like ours might go a free agent route, and so before that happens they engage. And unfortunately, the free agent market is pretty much paralyzed right now. So from our standpoint this worked out pretty well, but there's this trade-off -- this tension between free agent market and player market, particularly in an environment where some clubs are looking to offload salary. It's essentially a supplement to the free agent market. Anyway, those things work different, at different paces. This came together at the right time for us. So, you know, we're pleased with it.”
Oh we’re all very sure you’re quite pleased, Sandy. A top five player in baseball and a very good pitcher with three years of reasonably priced control for a decent big-league-ready infielder, an uninspiring infielder, and a pair of lottery tickets? You better be pleased, my man.
The more fascinating thing about these comments, I think, has to be the fact that Alderson admits it was partly because of media reports that the Mets even aware of the fact that Lindor might be available. Good job, media! I mean, the Mets probably should have been able to look at — *checks notes* — literally everything Cleveland has done with respect to payroll over the last several years and figured this out themselves, but my praise of all those speculative early-December media reports stands!
On the third base market
Alderson agreed with Heyman’s assertion that adding a shortstop wasn’t necessarily the Mets’ priority coming into the winter, and so talked a little about the third base market — potentially another place his team could use improvement. Are they still looking there?
“Well, to answer the question a little bit indirectly, I think right now we realize that we need to fill out our 25-man roster in terms of the bench. So if we work from the bench up we'll see where it takes us. But we're going to need some additional players, even if they're not starters. Right now our starter at third base is going to be J.D. Davis. Yes, there are other players available. We have to measure those other players against a guy like J.D., not only in terms of ability, but also in terms of control and cost. So, I don't know where we'll end up, but if we end up with J.D. at third base I think we'll be fine with that.”
Heyman had mentioned some of the more high-end possibilities at third, like Kris Bryant of the Cubs (another potential Jays target), and the fact that Alderson didn’t entirely rule out an addition like that could be a bad sign for the Jays in their chase of Springer. However, the fact that he’s still worried about bench pieces, given the club’s status regarding the CBT threshold, will likely make Jays fans feel a little bit better about that, not worse. Alderson seems to be leaning against the stars-and-scrubs philosophy of roster construction here.
On George Springer
Finally, the money question. It was at this point that Heyman asked about situation in centre and whether Springer is still a possibility.
Alderson’s response:
“Well, if you look at our roster right now, in terms of starters -- guys that we'd like to put in the outfield -- we really only have two. We need three -- at least three. We need four, probably five. So, you know, without commenting on any specific free agent, we definitely have some work to do there. And, you know, we want to make sure that we're not overly left-handed. There are other considerations as well. So, we're still working on that. As far as a big time free agent is concerned, we'll just have to see where the market goes and what's available to us as we begin to address not only our needs, but also manage our payroll as it gets larger and larger.”
This sounds good for the Jays, right? It is, at the very least, not an emphatic “yes we are still very much in on Springer.” It’s quite a ways from it, actually.
On the other hand, those concerns about being too left-handed make Springer very much a fit. And maybe throw into question whether Jackie Bradley Jr., a free agent CF who hits from the left side, is going to be viewed as an adequate fallback option in New York. Hmm.
The Springer conversation went on from here, with Heyman asking if Alderson had gotten a sense that he wants to play in New York. He’s from Connecticut, after all!
“Well, look, he's from Connecticut. I think, you know, given the level of excitement and enthusiasm surrounding the Mets, I don't think we've been crossed off his list. I don't know what his preferences are. But it seems to me that, with respect to a lot of free agents, they want to make sure we're still on the list. And that's for tactical reasons as well as other reasons. So, I would say that we're still engaged in a loose sense with Springer, as I would assume other clubs are as well.”
Now this is interesting. Jays fans know well by now that there is definitely a tactical element of the free agent dance. If there’s a team that looks like it has money to burn, you want people to think they’re in on you — even if you really have no intention of signing with them.
Speaking of this phenomenon, a lot of fans seem to have become convinced that free agents simply don’t want to take the Blue Jays’ money. And while there have definitely been cases in the past where that may have been the case — last year Zack Wheeler seemed rather intent on going to Philadelphia and not anywhere else, and D.J. LeMahieu very much seems to want to stay with the Yankees, as far as any of us can tell — that almost certainly has not been the case this winter. The very small number of free agents they’ve missed out on so far seem much more likely to have spurned them because the Jays wouldn’t budge from their valuations. So it’s best not to make this into something that it isn’t and to remember that if the Jays aren’t signing guys, it’s almost always because they are choosing to not make better offers to them.
That said, I don’t know! Maybe Springer always wanted to be a Met for some reason. It’s not that weird.
On J.T. Realmuto
Speaking of those kinds free agent market machinations, though the Mets are clearly not the team standing in the Jays’ way when it comes to catcher J.T. Realmuto, what Alderson said when asked what happened there and why the Mets chose instead to sign McCann instead hit on that very topic.
“Nothing really happened. I don't think Realmuto was ready to make a decision at the time we were ready to make a decision. And look, every choice has its consequences. Let's say hypothetically we had signed Realmuto instead of McCann, would we still have been actively been engaged with Lindor and Carrasco? I don't know. So, I think that you've got to look at the totality of the situation and the fact that we chose to go another direction behind the plate may have put us in the right posture to be able to do Lindor/Carrasco.
But, you know, this is not a continuum -- it's not a linear -- you've got to make decisions from time to time, and recognize the implications of those decisions. By signing McCann we got a very good player, and we maintained some flexibility, which allowed us to engage with Cleveland. Engaging with Cleveland and getting Lindor and Carrasco limits perhaps other options, but leaves other options available. From our standpoint one of the important things of the last three or four weeks of the off-season upcoming is to be in a position to take advantage of some opportunities -- again, like we have at the beginning in the off-season, in the middle of the off-season -- we want to be in a position to take advantage of some things at the end of the off-season as well. But we don't want to leave everything to the end. So anyway, this is how we've chosen to approach it and we're happy with the results so far.”
I can think of a team that does seem to be leaving everything to the end, and that probably isn’t quite as happy with their results so far. *COUGH*
The Jays are looking at the big ol’ menu and they just can’t decide what to eat. The Mets approach of having an appetizer at the start of the winter, a nice full meal, and then a little bit of dessert at the end seems like a better way to go about it, but maybe I just say that because the Jays haven’t signed anybody in two months. Of course, there are, as I will continue to point out, still 22 of MLBTR’s top 27 free agents out there waiting to be signed.
On the slow market
Speaking of the slow market, Alderson has some thoughts on why that’s the situation the league is in right now.
“Here's what I think's going on. I think there are two factors that are affecting things, one is industry economics. And look, we can argue about increases in franchise value versus profit or loss in a particular season, the bottom line is there was a significant impact on the game economically. And we're working through that right now. I think something that's just as important here is the uncertainty surrounding the 2021 season. Are we going to play all of our games? Are we going to have fans in the stands? What impact is that going to have on ongoing economics? I think we're all comfortable that it's going to be better than last year -- that we're probably not going to play 60 games -- but who knows what's going to happen. And I think this is hurting the players. Because, given the economics circumstances, there aren't a lot of clubs that are out there being aggressive in the marketplace. But its easy to be less aggressive if nothing's happening because of the uncertainty. So I think this uncertainty, and the fact that there has been no resolution between the players and MLB on exactly what will happen, is freezing the market. And so, I don't want to point fingers, but I don't think this is good for players. Maybe it's good for clubs. But I definitely don't think this situation is good for players. At some point the players association probably needs to recognize that.”
Look past the concern trolling of the union and his carrying water for cheap owners and that’s probably a reasonable way to look at the situation. Which means, sadly, that the hot stove likely isn’t about to start sizzling just yet.
Unless, perhaps, a team wants to be more like Alderson’s Mets and show some real initiative and aggressiveness in pursuing what they want. But I don’t see any teams like that around here, do you?
Top image: "Meeting Mr. Met" by Scott Smith (SRisonS) is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
I know this is obvious and naive and all the rest but god damn would it be fun to watch a team, that has money but not the roster it wants (but young pieces) decide that this offseason is a bargain bin and buy up the market.
What a truly weird off-season. It's not early at all, but there are so many players still available. With that being said, it would be nice for someone to just...do something.