Anatomy of a Seventh Inning
The 2025 Blue Jays have now truly entered the AL East title race, as underlined by a magnificently wild inning in their showpiece Canada Day game.
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It hasn’t been a very long time, but it feels like a whole lot has happened since I checked in with a batch of stray thoughts, late last week. Or even just since Nick and I last recorded a podcast back on Friday.
There was an entire extra day of annoying discourse about throwing at guys. A blowout win. A blowout loss. A big series victory at Fenway. Max Scherzer looking like precisely the guy the Jays had always hoped he could be for them—then exiting another start because of his wonky thumb. There was victory over Carlos Rodón regardless, with help from Mark Leiter Jr. and, of course, Vlad. There was Jeff Hoffman, looking ever more like his April self, picking up the save for a second day in a row. And then Max maybe actually being OK?!?
There was Canada Day pageantry that turned into some kind of nauseating commercial for the armed forces, as it too often does. Red jerseys that I will never not hate, personally—but if you don’t… whatever, that’s fine too. There was Kevin Gausman labouring through five innings—with help from old fiend Doug Eddings—and racking up just three strikeouts with a little less velocity than average, but using the sheer force of guile, luck, and the defence behind him to escape mostly unscathed. There was Andrés Giménez taking Max Fried deep to straightaway centre (!!!) to give the Jays a wholly unexpected lead. And a hell of a lot more that this brief summary hasn’t even touched on.
There was Ross Atkins giving fans the green light to dream on a big deadline day acquisition, too—which we’ll get into, among a number of other things, in a follow-up post later here on Wednesday.
But, really, there was only one thing. One inning. And, specifically, one moment.
There was the Blue Jays once again having the juice. Victory beginning to slip away by the tightest and most frustrating of margins, then being restored with first a dribble, then a thunderous stroke. The agony, the ecstasy, and the stupid Yankees falling apart—their lead over the Jays in the AL East reduced to just a single game—and the Blue Jays, once again, not. And on Canada Day, no less.
It was a fun ballgame of the kind we’ve started getting a little bit used to lately. But more than that it was a meaningful ballgame on a truly national stage. And it was an inning—a moment—that, more than any of the numerous surprising success stories that, added up, have brought the team to this point, might kickstart some real belief in this group from a fan base that’s spent too much of these last few years defaulting understandably into “wait-and-see” mode.
One moment can only mean so much, and nothing in this sport is ever as good or as bad as it seems, but it simply—and appropriately—felt like… game on.
Let’s relive it a little bit…
Screengrabs via Sportsnet, YES, MLB and Baseball Savant…
A 4-2 lead over the Yankees with just three innings left to play is never a bad scenario to be in—especially at home, and especially in a game that had been started by Max Fried—but with a tired bullpen and New York’s two-three-four hitters due up, it was hardly a comfortable one for the Jays when entering the top of the seventh on Tuesday…
This fact was underlined by John Schneider and Pete Walker’s choice to turn the ball over to Justin Bruihl. A minor league free agent who didn’t sign until mid-March, despite being outrighted by the Pirates way back in October, Bruihl is little more than lefty depth. He’s put up some decent numbers in the minor leagues and probably has some backers in the pitching lab or on the coaching staff who think a tweak here or there could unlock something. However, to this point in his career, his strong Triple-A strikeout rates have never translated to the majors. And yet here he was being tasked with retiring Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Or, more accurately, he was being asked to retire Bellinger and Chisholm—the lefties. By the time he entered the fray the Jays had already made it clear that they don’t want any part of Aaron Judge right now, and that seemed especially so with Bruihl on the hill, giving up the platoon advange. The All-World slugger has been steered clear of all series, including by way of an intentional walk with the bases empty on Monday night, which the Jays seemed to be hoping would be their move again in this one.
Unfortunately, Bruihl wasn’t quite up to the task—though he was hardly disastrous, and could feel a little bit aggrieved that his first pitch of the day, to Bellinger, wasn’t called a strike.
Behind now and wanting to be sure to throw a strike, his next offering caught too much of the plate, and the former MVP ripped it into right field for a single.
Something something best laid plans.
Judge was then issued his free pass, Chisholm made his way to the plate, and immediately Sportsnet’s broadcast started acting up.
This necessitated a brief switch to the YES feed, which fortunately allowed Canadian viewers to continue watching this pivotal inning. (Personally I think it would have been nice if the feed had stopped during the giant military wank-off earlier, but I digress!)
After seven pitches, Chisholm dribbled one to first base. Vladdy’s only play was at second. He made the toss, got the out, and just like that Bruihl’s day was done. John Schneider made his way up out of the dugout to call in Braydon Fisher to face Giancarlo Stanton. Runners on the corners, just one out.
Fisher, who was acquired from the Dodgers last summer for the corpse of Cavan Biggio—currently hitting well at Triple-A Omaha in the Royals system after being demoted in late May after producing just a 56 wRC+ in 37 big league games—is one of those success stories I was referring to earlier.
The sample size for Fisher has now grown to 23 2/3 innings over 22 appearances at the big league level, and so far he’s done just about everything right. He’s keeping runs off the board, keeping the ball in the ballpark, striking out guys at an elite rate, and limiting walks. Currently his 31.5% K-BB rate (literally just his strikeout rate minus his walk rate) ranks an incredible fifth out of 403 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitch—right behind Aroldis Chapman. His 2.03 FIP ranks ninth, directly behind Tarik Skubal.
Those are both guys with a hell of a lot more proof of concept, of course. And Skubal is doing it as a starter, amazingly. But that’s some elite company regardless. Another Atkins masterclass!
It wouldn’t be Fisher’s day here either, though. Albeit through no fault of his own.
With the Sportsnet feed working again, it was back to Dan and Joe for the call as Stanton chopped an 0-1 curveball down to third base somewhat harmlessly. Or so it seemed…
But a weird hop ate up Ernie Clement, who, despite being a well-deserved second in baseball by Fielding Run Value at third base so far this season, let the ball get by him and was charged with an uncharacteristic error. Bellinger scored easily, and now the Yankees were back within a run, with two on and just one out.
On the very next pitch, Jasson Domínguez chopped another relatively easy ball to make a play on, only this time it was down toward first base. Vladdy, clearly thinking about the slow-footed Stanton on his way to the plate from third and preparing himself to unleash a rocket of a throw, straight-up booted it.
Everybody’s safe! Run scores! Tie game! And still just one out with two runners on!
Ugly, frustrating, “here we go again…” type of stuff.
Except this year’s Blue Jays haven’t had nearly as much of that “here we go again…” in them, have they? They’ve let leads slip away only to, over and over again, claw them back. It’s a bit of a cliché that they’re never out of a game, and playing that way is maybe not sustainable. But it’s a hell of a ride compared to the ones we were on in 2023 and ‘24—and it fosters genuine belief, not only in the fans but presumably among the players, too.
Fisher still had two outs to get and, fortunately for the Jays, he was able to complete the job—though not without at least one nervy moment. With fans still grumbling about the back-to-back errors letting the club’s precious lead slip away, Anthony Volpe hammered a high, 0-1 slider into right-centre, only to watch helplessly as Myles Straw tracked it down deep in the gap, and then had the presence of mind to get the ball back in quickly enough to prevent the runners from advancing.
Fisher was then, finally, able to help himself, dispatching catcher J.C. Escarra with relative ease, getting him to swing over a 1-2 slider to end the top half of the frame.
It was a whole new ballgame as we entered the bottom of the seventh. The bullpen was running on fumes, and so the comeback kids would have to do their thing once again—and quickly. And this time without Bo Bichette, who was missing his second game in a row because of knee discomfo… hold on. Wait a second here. Did you ever notice that the red in the Rogers Communications logo is an awfully similar shade to the one the gets gratuitously splayed around the ballpark every Canada Day despite red only barely being a colour in the Jays’ palette and it looking utterly ridiculous for them to be wearing it? Odd!
Anyway! The bottom of the frame began with Leiter taking over for Fried—a real vote of confidence from constantly beleaguered and aggrieved-looking Yankees manager Aaron Boone, considering that Leiter had blown a save opportunity and taken the loss in Monday’s opener of this four-game set. Yankee fans didn’t love this one.
Straw, who is, of course, another of the pleasant surprises that have been the real story of this Blue Jays season, took a first-pitch strike from Leiter, but worked his way back into a 2-1 count by taking a couple of awful curveballs in the dirt.
It didn’t matter, though, as he could only lift an easy fly ball to right field, where Judge comfortably settled under it for the first out.
Giménez was up next, looking for some kind of a repeat of his earlier heroics. Or to at least continue to keep his offensive numbers moving in the right direction.
Which he did, ripping a strong single into centre—much to Leiter’s Donal Logue-esque dismay.
Giménez is now up to a 75 wRC+ on the season, which is decidedly not good, but it was at 68 before this game started, and 62 less than a week ago. So… progress?
Tyler Heineman then got in on the action, though not necessarily in the way that you’d expect. Coming into this game, Heineman was second in the AL in BABIP (min. 80 PA), with a .414 mark that was sitting behind only Judge’s .432—fluky stuff, if you ask me! Expect regression from both of these frauds!
In this case, though, Heineman reached via a five-pitch walk—just his fifth of the season. Largely, this was down to Leiter, who didn’t exactly put in his best work in terms of zone-finding. Hey, but at least he kept it away from Heineman’s mighty barrel, eh Booney?
This set the stage for Addison Barger, who had been stalking around the dugout, ready to hit, since early on in Heineman’s at-bat.
He would enter the game to replace Leo Jiménez, freshly recalled from Buffalo as cover for Bichette (with Jonatan Clase going the other direction), once Heineman reached. But Barger wouldn’t face Leiter, as Boone had seen enough by this point and was bringing in Luke Weaver.
Once the pitching change, and the commercial break that comes with it, was complete, the game was ready to resume—though not before we were treated to yet another of the lovely drone shots of the ballpark Sportsnet had been using all day.
I may not like the red, but I’d be lying if I didn’t acknowledge that it makes for a striking image when there’s this much of it. And kudos to the Jays, Sportsnet, and their broadcast crew for tons of great shots throughout the game. Cinematic stuff…
It would now be up to Barger…
…but the assignment wouldn’t be easy.
Weaver’s velocity is down a tick this season, and he isn’t producing swing-and-miss like last year—or, especially, like his dominant run in last year’s playoffs—but he’s still been a tough nut for opposing hitters to crack, and was the first reliever called on to assume New York’s closer’s role when fancy new addition Devin Williams stumbled out of the gate. (Williams has since taken the role back, however.)
Nevertheless, Barger battled.
Fooled by a first-pitch changeup…
…before easily laying off one in the dirt—which had the runners thinking about taking 90 feet.
-Hey, this is fun!-
A great pitch from Weaver for a called strike…
…a somewhat easy-looking take on an inside change to make it 2-2…
…and then a fastball low and away taken to fill the count.
Barger then reached out to spoil a low changeup…
…and for the next one, Weaver executed a really good pitch—95, bottom rung.
Barger looked at first like he was again going to try to spoil it, then appeared to change his mind and checked his swing—or seemed to.
The pitch was called a strike regardless.
Almost immediately, though, Barger began to plead his case: catcher’s interference.
He and the umpire both looked to the Blue Jays’ dugout, and already the wheels were in motion. DeMarlo Hale, on the phone, almost immediately told John Schneider to challenge the call, and just as quickly it became very apparent that Escarra’s glove did indeed get in the way of Barger’s bat.
I mean very apparent.
The crowd in the ballpark saw the replay and cheers immediately erupted. Barger made his way down to first before even the strike call has officially been overturned in his favour.
This was the second time in two games that a Yankees catcher had been called for interference—among a number of other sloppy plays that couldn’t help but remind me of how their 2024 season eventually ended. Boone for life!
Now back at the top of the order, it was time for Ernie Clement to come to the plate, looking to atone for his earlier error and continue what’s been a dream season so far for the man who inexplicably sits 22nd among position players in fWAR currently.
Bases loaded. One out...
Weaver missed with his first pitch, a fastball, and Clement went quickly ahead.
The second one was better and evened the count…
…but the third pitch, a cutter at 91, ended up in low. This one was probably easy take for most pro hitters, but Clement is very much not most hitters, and so—despite struggling this season against right-handed pitching (65 wRC+)—he put his outstanding contact skills to work here, reached out, and managed to poke the ball to the left side.
Volpe, already something of a whipping boy for Yankees fans at the moment, looked like he had a play on it…
…but somehow managed to completely biff it.
The ball scooted into the outfield, Giménez easily scored, and the Jays once again took the lead—albeit something of a precarious one.
Barry Pepper was not pleased!
But he wouldn’t have much time to get his head straight, because the stage was now set for George Springer. A grand slam hero only just about a week ago in Cleveland, and a resurgent former superstar, Springer felt for the first time in ages like a guy you’d actually want to see step to the plate in this moment…
Weaver’s command issues continued as Springer looked at a heater that missed low and outside.
Springer then showed his intent, swinging out of his shoes at a fall-off-the-table changeup to make the count 1-1.
Of course, Springer’s newly rediscovered success isn’t entirely about swinging harder, but he is doing that. His bat speed this season is higher than in each of the previous two years (note: data is only available starting from mid-2023), and his percentage of swings above 75 mph (i.e. swings classified as “fast”) is way up: he’s currently at 34% compared to just 22% last season.
You can really see it in his bat speed distribution graph, which clearly shows he’s taking fewer low-end bat speed swings as compared to 2024, far fewer of his median swings than in either 2023 or ‘24, and that a good chunk of the difference is getting redistributed to the 75+ mph side of the chart, where outcomes are better.
To get there he’s sacrificed a little bit in terms of swing-and-miss, but actually not even all that much. His strikeout rate is up to just 20.3% from 18.7%. His eye is still very good. He’s also got a more pronounced uppercut to his swing, which can be seen in his increased tilt, attack angle, and launch angle. He has also seen his ideal attack angle rate jump from 52% to 57%.
All these pieces fit together, really, and—as we’re about to see—have returned Springer to his place among the game’s most dangerous hitters. (Here on Wednesday morning his 140 wRC+ sits among the top 20 in baseball.)
Weaver went back to the changeup with his 1-1 offering, and Springer did an outstanding job of laying off…
…which set things up, finally, for the mistake we’ve all been waiting for—none of us more than Springer himself. A middle-middle cookie of a heater that Springer was unbelievably ready to pounce on.
Absolutely destroyed it. There was never any doubt: not that he could take his time and admire it, not that it was launched into outer space, not that the game was now over, not that at least a series split had been clinched, and not that the Blue Jays have something genuinely special going on here—none of it.
The outfielders gave the ball a perfunctory follow…
…but there was nothing they could do.
The ball was gone. And Springer fucking knew it…
His teammates knew it…
And so did these off-duty cops.
Absolute scenes!
The inning would, of course, continue from there. But it’s not like it mattered by then. The Blue Jays had won. They’d done it again. The magic didn’t run out in the face of the evil Yankees. And the AL East race had truly begun.
Three months of white-knuckle baseball incoming.
Game on!
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“ off duty cops”
Lol!
You brought your screenshot game to a whole new level with this article. Appreciate it.