And Then There Was One...

November baseball in Canada? Hell yeah, let's get weird.

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So that was certainly one that could haunt our dreams for generations, huh? Kevin Gausman’s splitter dancing save for one long wobble in the third. The Jays doing their thing, pressing on the Dodgers’ bullpen after sending Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the showers after six strong innings. Jays relievers bending not breaking. Momentum building. Bottom of the ninth. A hit-by-pitch. A double that could have been a triple if it hadn’t been one of probably 0.00000001% of the balls hit at Rogers Centre ever to have stuck where the wall and the warning track meet. Second and third, nobody out. New pitcher coming in. Thoughts of a second Game Six World Series walk-off in the building starting to grow. Top of the order achingly close to coming around. And then, in a flash, darkness.

The most up-to-date run expectancy tables we have say that you should get slightly more than two runs from that situation. The Jays got zero. The data says that comparable balls, in terms of exit velocity and launch angle, to the one Andrés Giménez hit have an expected batting average of .710, and Tom Tango notes in a tweet that the catch probability there was just 40%. It was a double play.

We have come a long way with how we can quantify the game over the last two decades, but she will always be a funky-ass, fluky-ass, fickle mistress. The power of Shit Happens is bigger than anything else in the sport, and I’m sure you don’t need me to tell you that last night shit happened.

I mean, OK, yes, expected batting average—which not only doesn’t account for fielder positioning or ability, but doesn’t even account for the direction the ball was hit—isn’t the world’s greatest stat. And Addison Barger absolutely should not have been doubled off on that play. Fuck! But that, for me, was just One Of Those Games.

Nice play by Kiké Hernández to end it. Can’t be getting doubled off like that, but sometimes guys get doubled off like that. Can’t be a heartbreaker if you never held the lead. Should have scored more runs sooner. Now flush it and go win the next one.

That’s probably easier said than done for most, but if John Schneider’s post-game attitude is shared by his players the Jays are at least going to be starting Game Seven in a good place.

And what else can be said, really?

Game Sevens are unbelievably cruel by their nature. The Jays could make it considerably less cruel by jumping out to an early lead and never looking back, but nothing about any of this has been easy, why would that change now? So yeah, just take it in stride and try to enjoy the fact that we only get to do this one more time for real until we’re on the other side of a long, cold winter.

This team knows how to play a ballgame—most of the time, at least. They know now how to live inside the pressure cooker of playoff baseball. And they’ve felt like the better team enough times in this series that you have to feel good that the right result is going to come, even if it might take an agonizing journey to get there.

It’s definitely going to be some kind of a journey. Out by out, batter by batter, pitch by pitch, grinding to the very last. Max Scherzer will take the ball first for the Jays, but his leash will undoubtedly be very short. The old gunslinger trying to bring it one last time for the big prize is a great story and all, but even in these playoffs Scherzer has been a better story than a pitcher.

In October so far, Scherzer has allowed five earned runs through 10 innings, walking five and striking out only eight. And the problems that plagued him in-season have proven difficult to shake. His 63% flyball rate and 17.6% HR/FB have kept on conspiring to make him uncomfortably homer prone. The Jays are going to be ready to pull him at the first sign of real trouble, unfortunately trouble for him has typically meant the ball leaving the yard.

But there isn’t a more fun guy to watch with the ball in his hand on this roster—other than maybe Trey Yesavage, who Schneider says “will definitely be part of” Game 7—and certainly no one with even half of Scherzer’s outward intensity. It’s a huge moment, and I’m sure he’ll be up for it. Whether his arm will be is another story.

Then we’ll be off into the madness. Into the weird.

John Schneider likes to say that Chris Bassitt does weird well, and the 36-year-old veteran-starter-turned-lights-out-reliever has certainly proven his manager right on that count in these playoffs. But Schneider—and, by extension, Pete Walker and everybody else who has a say in how the game is managed—has a bit of a penchant for it himself, especially on the pitching side. His choices haven’t always been the right ones this month, but the way he pulled the strings as the Jays clinched the ALDS with a Game Four victory on a bullpen day was masterful.

Can he do it again? We’ll just have to wait and see. But I do expect we’re in for a ride more like that one than any sort of traditional Scherzer start.

That’s probably true on the other side of the ball as well, to a lesser extent. Shohei Ohtani will take the ball for the Dodgers, and—weirdly enough—if there’s anything for an optimism-inclined Jays fan to cling to as we head into this one, it may be that.

Ohtani would likely have been in line for a relief role if not for the rule that would take away the Dodgers’ DH spot if they brought him in from the bullpen then and took him out of the game. Because he starts, he can exit as a pitcher yet still continue on as the DH. That’s less than ideal for the Jays in the grand scheme, but it’s not like anyone was unware of the “Ohtani Rule.” What it also means, though, is that the Dodgers have got to put him out there. And early.

Will he be ready for it? You’ll read a lot about his nature, his desire, his competitiveness, and how much he wants to be in the moment. But, much like with Scherzer, willpower and determination may only go so far.

Ohtani put in a real shift in the marathon Game Three, going 4-for-4 with two homers, two doubles, five walks, three RBIs, and three runs scored. On the mound the next day, though, he was merely good, giving up four runs on six hits, along with a bunch of hard contact. His velocity was also down. Not significantly so, but noticeably down on just about everything.

The easy presumption is that the velo drop was related to the effort of the previous night’s game, but that’s not necessarily true. And even if it were true, it doesn’t preclude there from being a different reason why the same thing could happen tonight.

The last time Ohtani pitched with fewer that six days of rest was in June. Now Dave Roberts has him pitching on short rest—just three days’ worth—for only the second time in his career. Though, really, it’s the first. A long rain delay at Fenway Park back in April of 2023 cut an Ohtani start short after just two innings, and then he was fine when pitching on three days rest a few days later against the Royals.

Not quite the same situation as tonight. And if the velo makes him even a shade more human than usual he could be vulnerable. Then, once Ohtani leaves the game, Roberts may have to get a bit weird himself.

Tyler Glasnow only threw three pitches last night, but still had to get warmed up an into the game, so how much length he’ll be able to give the Dodgers out of the bullpen behind Ohtani is a bit up in the air. He also exited after just 4 2/3 having given up four runs (two earned) as the starter back in that ridiculous Game Three. Roki Sasaki has left both of his appearances this series unscathed, but looked vulnerable in giving up three hits, three walks, and an HBP over just 2 2/3 innings. And now he’ll be pitching on a back-to-back. Blake Snell could make an appearance, but he’ll only be on two days rest, so the Jays might even consider themselves lucky—*WINK*—if they get to see him. And if any other Dodgers pitcher is in the game, it will probably mean good things are happening for the good guys.

Yes, it could go swimmingly for the Dodgers, because those are certainly some high-calibre arms in play. But it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if Ohtani doesn’t have it, the Jays get to him early, Roberts struggles to find answers in his ‘pen, and we all avoid so much of the heartache and anxiety we’re currently steeling ourselves for.

Genuinely, I think this could happen. And it would be a truly just result based on what I’ve seen in this series so far, if you want my completely biased opinion on the subject.

But, as I was saying above, baseball rarely follows the script.

And November baseball? In Canada? Shit, there’s no way that’s not getting weird.

So let’s embrace it. Let’s revel in it. But, most importantly, let’s fucking DO IT. There’s only one of these left either way. Let’s win it. Let’s weird it.

I mean, after all, what could possibly be a weirder outcome here—to this game, to this series, to this season, to this lifetime—than the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays becoming World Series champions?

LET’S FUCKIN’ GOOOO!!! PLAYOFFS!!!!!!!1!!!

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