Another FJMing, as a treat

I said at the end of the latest edition of Deranged Factor—my new video series exclusively for paid subscribers—that I was tickled by Cathal Kelly’s recent piece on Rogers’ purchase of MLSE. Honestly, that was somewhat of a new feeling for me when it comes to his Shapiro-era work, and I think you can guess what the usual feeling is.

I don’t know Cathal, but we’ve spoken years ago. He was kind enough to be the first ever guest on the Drunk Jays Fans Podcast, back when I was just starting out on this strange journey of a career, and for that he’ll always have a place in my heart—so much as one exists for a soulless ghoul like yours truly. He’s given me plenty of things to write about over the years too, albeit unintentionally. And, frankly, I really don’t want to be overly mean… you know… anymore. But we’ve got to talk about his latest.

I think that’s mostly because—like I say—whereas his odd takes on the Jays once just made me angry, I find myself getting a real kick lately out of the fact that he’s still out here lobbing stink bombs at the team, its owners, and their fans. I’ve been tickled again, I suppose you could say.

Don’t get me wrong, the fact that he’s doing this from behind the granite façade of “Canada’s newspaper of record,” via one of the better sportswriting gigs in the country, doesn’t make me feel particularly good. There’s not no anger. But I’d be lying if I said that there isn’t a certain whimsy to the ever deepening self-parody going on here. Maybe I only ever see the bad ones, I don’t know. But it seems to me like he’s always on brand. And what a brand!

I think it’s well encapsulated, at least as far as the local nine go, by just the title of his latest: The Blue Jays are seven years into their rebuild and their prospects look grim.

Brilliant. Let’s take a look at some highlights…

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We have no choice but to start with that title, because it’s absolutely pitch perfect.

We could debate whether the Blue Jays’ prospects for the future actually do look grim, but that’s a perfectly valid opinion for someone to hold. What comes before it, however, gave me a chuckle.

The Blue Jays are seven years into their rebuild? Count back seven years and you arrive at the end of the 2017 season. Is it reasonable to say that the rebuild began then?

My initial instinct was to say yes. José Bautista left after that season, as did Ryan Goins. And they’d been sellers at the ‘17 trade deadline, bringing in Teoscar Hernández, Thomas Pannone, and Samad Taylor. It feels like a reasonable enough demarcation point for the next era. It certainly felt like it was definitely over at that point.

But while nobody would say that the Jays were wholeheartedly trying to put together a championship-calibre roster that winter, they did move prospects for Aledmys Díaz, Yangervis Solarte, and Randal Grichuk. They picked up Curtis Granderson in free agency. They still had Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, and Josh Donaldson.

So, it's maybe not the point I'd choose for the start of the rebuild, personally. For me, the rebuild was either on from Day One, or it didn't really begin in full until the following year, after Donaldson and Happ had been dealt, when John Gibbons made way for Charlie Montoyo, Russell Martin was traded, Estrada was gone, Stroman, Sanchez, and Steve Pearce were on their way out, the team spent virtually nothing in free agency, and then turned as much as possible over to the kids.

If I'm being overly pedantic here it's at least with a purpose. That the rebuild has been going on for seven years is confidently stated in both the title and the piece itself with no evidence or acknowledgement of any of that nuance. And while it might not make for particularly snappy writing to walk the reader through a bunch of long ago transactions (*COUGH*) to illustrate that it's actually hard to pin down a starting point for it, that feels kind of important when your entire point is “Do you believe how long this has been going on for??!”

And that's not even the most wrong thing about the title! Because I'm pretty sure a rebuild is considered over when a team spends three years as legit World Series contenders. Rebuilding teams don't have multi-year runs as a top five or ten team based on preseason projections. Yeah, the Jays should have won more games in those seasons, and should have made the playoffs one or two more times, but that doesn't mean the rebuild was ongoing. Like, what are we doing here?

Or… well… I mean, I suspect we all know exactly what we’re doing here. We’re reading a hit piece that’s juking the stats to make it look like things have been worse for longer in order to make the author’s argument appear stronger.

And you know how we might have known that the “rebuild” we’re talking about hasn’t been the kind of traditional, cut and dried one that’s being implied? By looking about 140 words into this very piece, where Cathal writes this:

The Jays will end the year at the bottom of the American League East. It’s been a while since it’s looked that grim.

The last time it happened (2013), the Jays had a nearly identical record, but they were still a ways from being the worst team in the league. That dishonour belonged to the Houston Astros (51-111).

Houston has since appeared in four World Series. Meanwhile, the Jays can vaguely remember the last time they won a playoff game. Fair to say that however renovations should be done, the Jays are not doing it that way.

Odd that the team’s most recent low ebb in their division came four years before this seven-year rebuild even started! Strange that he’s talking about not winning playoff games instead of not making playoff appearances!

Except it’s not odd at all, is it? The brand, it is strong.

Ah, but then things take a fun turn…

The team is to blame. It picked the wrong philosophy, hired the wrong crew and laid a cracked foundation. But its failures have been abetted by their customers. The Jays stay bad because Toronto baseball fans like them that way.

I mean… yes? Fans did like it when the team was very good?

As for when the team has actually been bad, it has not remotely been a fun experience. Oh my god, it’s been incredibly annoying to participate in the discourse around this team this season. Hell, even last year’s playoff-bound team drove people up the wall.

Expectations among this fan base are very high, not very low. It’s hard to fathom that somebody writing in the newspaper about the team could have missed this.

On average this year, the Jays have attracted just a few hundred fewer people each night than they pulled during their last great season (2015).

What message does that send? Whatever it is, it isn’t ‘Change or else.’

One message it sends is that it’s really effective to give priority access for playoff tickets to fans who purchase season tickets for the following year. Speaking as a 2017 season ticket holder, I can strongly attest to that. Wanted to get in the door for any potential 2023 playoff games? You’d better have been ready to make a deposit for your 2024 seasons.

It also sends the message that the author doesn’t respect his audience enough to believe they might actually remember how the 2015 season—the most famous and best-remembered Jays season since the early 90s!—played out. There’s a reason we’re not talking about 2016 here. The Jays spent four listless months playing underwhelming baseball in 2015, and were coming off an 83-79 season in 2014 that had failed to inspire a fan base still scarred by the high-profile disaster of 2013—fans that, it should be noted, were savvy enough to know to start showing up in droves after the trade deadline despite the team’s then-middling record.

In 2016, when expectations were high all year and tons of season tickets had already been sold on the back of 2015’s wild excitement, the Jays averaged 41,878 fans per game. This season they've averaged 33,086. In September (through Friday) it's down to 28,536.

Again, I ask, what are we doing here?

We are motivated to make radical change only when the intolerable looms. For a baseball team, that means the stadium hollowing out, people getting fired and an atmosphere of rage and frustration settling around the team. The Jays have never experienced that in anything more than short, ineffectual bursts.

What? Not only is that pretty much exactly how I’d describe the last two years with this team, I know this guy was there in the J.P. Ricciardi era. The Jays have absolutely experienced that!

Toronto has … what may be the least reactive fan base in North America. Team’s good? People show up. Team’s bad? People show up.

WHAT?

Oh, sorry. I mean… what?!??

You might have a better time making this argument about the Leafs, though I’m not sure it would accurate about them either. But we’re not talking about the Leafs, we’re talking about the Jays. Or maybe we’re talking about all Toronto teams. Either way: WHAT?

When New York fans are angry, management is also reactive. Between 1982 and 1991 – the worst stretch in Yankees history – the club had 11 managers. It wasn’t good, but it was at least interesting.

Perhaps my memory is faulty, but it seems to me that was more about one particularly volatile fan who owned the team at the time. Also… is the suggestion here that the Jays should emulate the 1980s New York Yankees or not? You’re saying it was bad, but you also seem to be saying the Jays should do this anyway??? Could all the whiplash from the constant change not have actually been part of the problem for those Yankees teams? Like, exactly? Like, so well known it was parodied constantly on fucking Seinfeld? Lmao.

Toronto plays it differently. Nobody gets fired, and when they do, it’s a big deal.

“Nobody gets fired, and when they do.” Truly incredible stuff. Delightful. Ten stars!

But also, while I suppose it was a big deal when Charlie Montoyo got fired, what about Dave Hudgens? What about the coaches on the player development side losing their jobs literally this month? Other than the obvious implication that Shapiro and Atkins should have been turfed long ago—and noted baseball genius Edward Rogers allowed to blaze through executives at his whim—what does this even mean?

At some point, change becomes the risk. What if they do try very hard and are bad at it and people don’t like it? Better to do the thing you know they like – say you’re getting better, and don’t.

You’re talking about a team that literally pivoted hard toward pitching and defence, threw away the Home Run Jacket, and tore down the walls of the Barrio heading into last season! LOOOOOOOL

After years of this, the Toronto Blue Jays Inc. is any company staffed by people who are only working for the weekend. Nice enough guys, but you wouldn’t want to hire them to fix your house.

The house thing is a call back to those first 140-odd words in the piece, and it would be unfair of me, I think, to not provide that context. But to imply laziness or unseriousness about other people after writing this? Ah! Oh! Ooh! *CHEF'S KISS* 👌

For my previous FJMing, as a treat click here.

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