Atkins Speaks: On culture, the trade deadline, Pearson, catching, and more!
The Blue Jays bid adieu to Buffalo on Wednesday night with a loss to the Red Sox in front of a half hostile “home” crowd. Buffalo is a gem, and the city has been an incredibly gracious host, but let’s hope to hell the Jays never, ever have to play there again.
As for the game itself, I think you’ve just gotta tip your hat to the Red Sox. This is basically the same team that finished below the Orioles last year, and yet now they seem to have an uncanny ability to mash absolutely everything that’s thrown their way. I’d sure love to know Alex Cora’s secret! Ho ho ho.
But OK, let’s say no more about that. Because today we’re going to take a look at something that I thought was much more interesting than last night’s game — Jays GM Ross Atkins’ pre-game interview on Sportsnet’s Tim and Friends (the Atkins segment begins at the 20 minute mark).
But first, please indulge me while I attempt to make a living. Because if you’ve been sent here by a friend, or are an existing subscriber who would like to move to a paid membership so you can comment, ask questions the next time I open up the ol’ mail bag, or just plain old support what I do, click below to upgrade or become a subscriber. You’ll be helping keep all posts free for everyone, and I will be eternally grateful, too!
On the move back to Toronto coinciding with the trade deadline
It's insanely busy and insanely exciting. Thinking about this being the last game we're playing in Buffalo tonight, it's amazing. I can't say enough about our players. They have not done anything but control what they can control and focus on trying to win ballgames. And you can see their passion for one another and how much joy they have in competition. Wherever we've been they've stayed together, they've stayed united, and this has been an interesting story thus far and hopefully we can continue to make it a better one. But exceptionally busy with the trade deadline and just getting out of the draft, and now moving back to Toronto, and feel very fortunate. Feel very fortunate to have those things going on.
A nice, easy one to start with, and Atkins managed to stay on message in a way that I’m sure we’re all very familiar with. He can’t say enough about his players, he feels very fortunate, etc. These aren’t unreasonable things for him to say or think, but his and Mark Shapiro’s Blue Jays — especially in public, and perhaps especially in a TV setting, where the lights are brighter than a Zoom call with reporters or a radio hit — clearly value positivity. Always the default position. A theme! (At least for the first part of the interview.)
On how hard all the moving has been, and Ross Stripling's comments
Though I do find the positivity stuff a bit forced at times, there is no doubt that the Jays can and should be proud of the way that they’ve played so far this season, given all the upheaval and living out of suitcases behind the scenes. They’re keeping their heads above water while dealing with shit that literally no other team in baseball has had to, and even turning it into — yes — a positive. It’s been an achievement all on its own, I think.
But, as Ross Stripling pointed out after he was roughed up by the Red Sox this week, it takes its toll. Saying that he was in “a weird mental space” on the hill after the game on Monday, Stripling admitted, “On Wednesday, I'm going to have to say bye to my family for two months, which is actually weighing on me much harder than I want it to be.”
Now, fully vaccinated Americans can travel to Canada starting on August 9th, so maybe consider my eyebrow a little bit raised there, but there are all kinds of reasons the Striplings may be making this particular choice, none of which are any of my business. The main point I’m trying to make about it here is that it definitely must suck.
Here’s how Atkins responded to being asked about the toll, and about the way that Stripling put a human face on the downside of what has been a celebratory issue for Jays fans this month.
I think that's exactly what that was, it was just being human. Every GM that I talk to, every executive that I talk to, it is usually met with a sigh, and a lot of 'Man, you guys have really had a tough run,' and 'How are you doing? How are you hanging in there?' We just haven't thought of it that way. We've just really focussed on the good, focussed on how we can improve — are there little things, incrementally, we can do to improve our situation? Whether that be resource, facility, changes to the roster, the team, communication — you know, how can we get better in the environment that we're in? And our players have had that mindset as well. But I really do — I feel incredibly fortunate to have been through it because of what it's meant for our group. I've seen this team come together — and it's not just the 26 man roster, it's the organization coming together in a very special way that I don't think any other organization can experience. Because, whether it's business to baseball operations, or minor league to major leaguer, or player development to amateur, we've had to be all hands on deck in a unique way and feel fortunate for that.
Slipping in “changes to the roster” as though that’s on the same level as “resource” or “facility” is very funny to me. But let’s not dwell on that just yet and go back to our theme. I forget which ex-player we had on a DJF podcast way back in the early days who derided hitting coaches as “atta boy coaches,” but it seems now that hitting coaches do a whole hell of a lot more than only that, and that the Blue Jays have made sure good vibes are also a big part of the GM’s and manager’s portfolio. Which, again, isn’t to say that Ross is saying anything wrong here, it’s just interesting to me — mostly because I have to believe that this is the same sort of face Blue Jays’ management probably tries to put on for their players. Focus on the good, control what you can control, be better every day, everyone pulling in the same direction to make this special.
It makes me wonder if part of the culture-building that they do is to weed out cynical types like myself who hear that kind of stuff and think, “Are these guys fucking serious?”
But it also makes sense.
I was struck while writing about this by two things that I read today. One was a quote from a Jason Parks essay at Baseball Prospectus, which was used in an excellent piece from Future Blue Jays on why and when teams choose to promote their prospects.
“You can’t teach a baseball player to play baseball (your brand of baseball) with a chorus of voices singing different songs at different times for different reasons,” Parks wrote. “The developmental hierarchy has to communicate in order to develop the best possible plan for the player in question. It’s a team effort and when it loses that consensus, the player suffers.”
The other thing all this reminded me came from David Roth’s incredible Defector piece on Michael Irvin’s questioning the will to win of Dallas Cowboys players who refuse to get vaccinated for COVID-19 — a rumination on not just that specific subject, but more broadly on American culture and the nature of work.
In it he writes:
Practically speaking, it is harder for a collective to reach its shared goal if everyone is not pulling in the same direction; the more ennobling part is how that understanding tends to manifest through big and little acts of helpfulness and support and assistance. Those actions reflect and honor, in a way that those broader goals would and necessarily could not, the fact that everyone involved is a person. It is a practical fact that people tend to pull most effectively in the desired direction if they feel supported and valued by the people around them, but also and more importantly that is just what people deserve.
(In workplaces that don’t work, the calculation isn’t much more complicated: The work isn’t that important, and the people are even less important than that, and at some point the decision is reached that it’s easier to just get new people to replace those who break or leave or die than it is to care for the ones you have.)
The Blue Jays say they think about this kind of stuff a lot, and it definitely shows in the way Atkins and Montoyo speak when a microphone is in front of them.
One also might assume that some of their general hesitancy to divest themselves of “their guys” — a point rather relevant as the trade deadline approaches — has roots in this kind of stuff as well. Everybody knows they need better corner outfield defence, but watching their All-Stars FaceTiming with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on the field in Denver last week underscores how tough that might be for this team.
Not to belabour the point, but…
It was at this point during their chat that Tim mentioned praise that his colleague Buck Martinez has had for the organization and the way that they’ve handled everything thrown at them. For the sake of completeness, here’s the response:
Really, we just focus on the thing that I've mentioned. I have ton of respect for Buck, so hearing you say that is certainly a positive. And we do, we do have a good group of people here that love baseball, love working for this organization, love this team, and love working together. So hopefully the organization will continue to benefit from that.
Atta boy!
On Charlie (Sorta)
Tim made a great pivot here, seemingly trying to catch Atkins off guard on the subject of his manager. He asked: “Charlie Montoyo's taken some heat for his decision making at times. How tough in all this has been the balance of manager of games and manager of human beings?”
Sadly, Ross didn’t offer him much in return on the in-game stuff.
It is a very, very fair question, and that's always the case. I think sometimes even executives can be guilty of thinking that professional athletes are superhuman and that they're tougher than any other individual. But the reality of it is is that we're all obviously human, and we're all in need of feeling connected, in need of feeling a part of something bigger than ourselves, and Charlie's focused on that. On keeping people united, and keeping people feeling like they're part of something special. He's done a great job, he really has, and again, not to focus on the challenges, but ours certainly have been unique.
Once again it’s our theme. And once again I’m left wondering if the Jays really do believe that the big picture value of The Charlie Mindset outstrips whatever tactical deficiencies he may have. It would explain a lot!
Has the last 15 months changed the team’s approach, or view of things like windows of opportunity?
This was a pandemic-related question, but what I want to know is whether the seasons being had by pending free agents Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray have changed the window of opportunity. Because they should have! It’s now. You’re not going to get that kind of value next year out of Nate Pearson and some stopgap signed to be pushed aside by Austin Martin or Jordan Groshans!
Alas, Atkins declined to get that specific about it.
I don't think it's changed our approach, but I feel like we've gotten better. I feel like our relationships and our bonds have strengthened. And, like I mentioned, that's not just me to Charlie, it's throughout the organization. Our players are even more united than we've been, and those are the things that we're seeing improve, which then turns to us feeling very good about where this organization is and wanting to make this 26 man roster better if we can. And there are a lot of things that we've adapted and learned from that we'll take away from this unique challenge as we move forward in decision-making, as we move forward in roster building and thinking about how we create a good environment for players.
We get it! Things are good!
How much do you want to get done at the trade deadline?
OK. Now we’re talking! Here we go!
Well, we will get an incredible amount of work done.
Hell yeah! Let’s make some deals!
We already have.
Huh?
I think the preparation to get to this point, to understand where opportunities might be, and then really digging further, as things crystalize, to learn how it would impact our team if a change is made, if a trade is made.
Ohhh. No, not that kind of work!
So the work will be at an exceptional level, and the results — which we can't always control — we hope that we are able to add another good player. Whether that's a position player or reliever or starting pitcher we'll see. And maybe even beyond that.
One good player would certainly be good, but I can spot more than just one hole on this roster, so I’m not sure “maybe even beyond that” is quite good enough here. The Rays, as we learned on Thursday evening, are loading up, having added slugger Nelson Cruz from the Twins for a pair of prospects (near MLB-ready starters Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman, who FanGraphs suggested were 45 FV prospects when compiling their top Rays prospects list this past winter, which would put them in maybe the same league as Thomas Hatch and Anthony Kay — though Kay was only 40+ FV the last time he was ranked for the Jays, and both likely have bigger red flags now).
That’s easier to do, of course, when you’re the Rays and you a) had 40 prospects at 40 FV or better, compared to the Jays’ 25, and b) are currently 18 games over .500 compared to the Blue Jays’ four.
But hey, under-promise and over deliver. Don’t let them know you’re desperate. I’m happy to write off Atkins’ somewhat underwhelming expectations here as being due to gamesmanship. (Though I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if Atkins failed to pull off a blockbuster either.)
Speaking of gamesmanship, he went on:
But the organization is in a good place to do that because of the depth of our farm system. We're excited about some the pieces that could help from within as well, with Nate Pearson getting healthy again, with the emergence of Kevin Smith in the minor leagues. A lot of good things happening in Buffalo with some of our pitchers there really starting to step up — and we have guys getting healthy now. So, I think between the deadline and opportunities we'll have there, and then some of the guys getting that are getting healthy and — really excited about Corey Dickerson that should be, whether it's right at the deadline or just after, maybe shortly after that, on a major league field with us. So, excited about the days ahead for sure, Tim.
Not having to figure a way to squeeze Dickerson onto the roster until after the deadline would be quite convenient! But I think the more interesting thing here — and the reason I mentioned gamesmanship ahead of the quote — is the mention of Kevin Smith.
Nate Pearson we know, or at least can be fairly sure, isn’t going anywhere. Smith, however, is one of the team’s better trade chips — as I mentioned at various points in my latest mail bag.
Smith is slashing .288/.381/.595 (152 wRC+) for Buffalo/Trenton this year, with 16 homers in just 61 games and a walk rate of 12.7%. He's a capable fielder, too, meaning that Atkins isn't necessarily wrong that he could help the Jays this year. But bringing him onto the 40-man, at least as currently constructed, would make for a weird fit — he hits from the right side and would be taking reps away from Santiago Espinal, who has been really helpful in his own right. He'd also need to be added to the 40-man — and if not now, over the winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft — which could pose a problem depending on who all gets moved out before the end of the month.
Because Smith has had success as a prospect before, during his breakout 2018, I'd be willing consider betting on him long-term ahead of Espinal. But probably not enough to disrupt the run that Espinal is currently on — and maybe not enough to want to commit a long-term 40-man spot to, given that Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans are likely going to force their way into the MLB picture sometime in about the next year.
In other words: I think he’s trade bait and Atkins is probably pumping his tires a bit here.
How tough is the starting pitching market right now?
It does feel sparse. I think that's in part because of injury, in part because of just the evolution of the game. We're actually in a decent spot with the rotation that we have right now, and some of the names that I mentioned getting healthy again, some of the performances we've had in Triple-A. We could be better. And we will look to see if there are opportunities there, but it doesn't feel like that is an area where you can be opportunistic. (Laughs)
Could this be gamesmanship, too? I’m not so sure.
Berríos would be a great addition for the Jays, but I can’t see Minnesota moving him without getting some kind of a stud pitching prospect who is relatively close back, and since we’ve established that I truly don’t believe Pearson would be on the table, I’m not sure who that might be. Does Simeon Woods Richardson move the needle for the Twins? My guess would be no.
Speaking of Pearson…
Asked a follow-up about why he thinks the pitching market is so tough, Atkins explained:
I think part of it is the way teams are built, and the usage of pitchers — of starting pitchers and relievers. And part of it is injury, and part of it, really, is how hard it is to be a starting pitcher and the importance of identifying it and developing it.
If you read that and immediately thought of Pearson you’re not alone. Though Atkins announced, with great relief, on a Zoom call with reporters this week that the cause of Pearson’s recurring groin issues (a sports hernia) had finally been identified and that he could be a bullpen option for the club in the near term, he certainly isn’t closing the door on him as a starter.
Asked whether there would be a reset for Pearson in the off-season and another attempt at making him into a starter Atkins explained: “I think that is the most likely scenario. That’s what our hope would be.”
Maybe not as emphatic as one would expect, but don’t forget that Atkins has never met a door he could leave fully closed. And the point is: a healthy Pearson sure still looks like a frontline starter, and don’t expect the Jays to give up on that hope very easily.
Later on he was asked if Pearson was part of the decision-making process on all this.
Yeah, absolutely. And ideally it's always a mutual decision. Sometimes we have to ultimately make a decision that a player may or may not be 100% happy about, but Nate is on board with that, was a part of that process. And, really, it's more medical than circumstantial. Just because of wanting to make sure we get through the season while he gets continued development opportunities, and managing his workload — game to game, not necessarily over the course of the year. And then we'll reset next year. So, excited about where he is. He is fired up and in a good place and obviously has weapons to help.
He does indeed have those! Pearson the reliever is not a horrible outcome for the Jays here, long-term, even if you completely understand why they’re going to do whatever they can to avoid it.
How careful do you need to be, human being wise, into "a young and developing clubhouse”?
Back to our theme!
Exceptionally careful. I do think that we have an environment that can handle all walks, and any — we're not looking for a clone, we're not looking for one type of human. But it's really important that who we bring into the clubhouse loves the game, respects the people in it — and not just the players in the clubhouse but all walks. That is exceptionally important to us. We also feel like our players can help others think that way and become better teammates. Because of — you're looking at it right now, the joy that those two (note: presumably two Blue Jays on the screen — could be anybody!) bring into the clubhouse, it's every single day. And that's natural leadership. That impacts other players, that decreases stress — to watch the smiles on those faces. It does it for me. I'm sure it does it for fans — well, I hope it does it for fans. And I'm sure it does it for other players.
I think this sufficiently answers the question from the aforementioned mail bag about whether the Jays would entertain bringing Josh Donaldson back into the fold! *COUGH*
You can probably stop thinking about the potential of Marcus Stroman returning here via free agency next winter, too.
More interesting than that stuff, though, I think is the bit about positivity and decreasing stress. That’s certainly something that’s been studied a lot, and the way it connects to baseball is fairly obvious. Or at least seems like it to me. It, uh, doesn’t appear to be helping the 2021 Blue Jays late in games however.
Where does Corey Dickerson fit this team?
I think the handedness is key. Whether or not that is platooning with someone else out there; he's also been on the dirt before at first base. So we'll see where that takes us — we're focussed right now on him getting healthy — but I could see a scenario where he's playing on a semi-regular basis and, depending on the performance of others and himself, that that could take on a more regular playing time situation. But the power, the professionalism of his at-bats, and then having some versatility as a player is — we're excited to see him on the field.
Having a decent left-handed bat will definitely be good! And Dickerson’s presence at least gives Atkins the option to trade an outfielder — though, obviously, as we’ve been over and as Atkins’ own emphasis on chemistry makes clear, that may be more difficult in practice for this front office than it is in a vacuum.
On Alejandro Kirk and the catching situation
Lastly, on the Kirk vs. McGuire vs. Jansen question, the answer is pretty clear.
If he were to be here we would take a catcher off the roster most likely. I mean, we could consider carrying three catchers, but (he's) currently being optioned in Triple-A, and we want to make sure he's in a — not just he's in a great place, physically, he's 100% recovered from his injury. We want to make sure he's into a great rhythm — I believe he hit a home run and a couple of singles yesterday. And very glad to have him back into the fold.
Of course, after Jansen left Wednesday’s game against the Red Sox with tightness in his hamstring — the issue that sent him to the IL earlier this season — this all may, unfortunately, be moot.
Long-term, it seems like the question of who catches for the Blue Jays may already be moot as well. Keith Law of the Athletic released his mid-season top 50 prospects list on Thursday, and it turns out the Blue Jays have a real blue chipper in his eyes. Gabriel Moreno, who is currently out with a broken thumb but was tearing up New Hampshire for most of the summer, now ranks his number five prospect. In all of baseball. Number five.
Suggesting that the thumb injury "might be the only thing stopping his ascent to the majors right now," Law cites Moreno's huge offensive breakout and "plus defensive skills across the board" as the reason for this hugely impressive ranking. "His hand strength may not be all the way back until next year due to the injury but it’s not a factor for the long term. He’s a future star."
Giddy up!
Also worth noting from the piece:
• Law still believes in Austin Martin, who is getting on base like mad in Double-A but has lacked power "possibly because of a hand injury he sustained on a slide in mid-May." He ranks 12th.
• Nate Pearson remains on the list, and is even ahead of the top pitching prospect from last week’s draft, Jack Leiter, though he continues to slide a bit due to injury concerns.
• The incredibly impressive Orelvis Martinez is the fourth Blue Jay in Law’s top 50. Martinez has slashed .286/.372/.568 as a 19-year-old for Low-A Dunedin this season, but has exploded of late. In his last nine games, Martinez has hit nine home runs, six doubles, and 24 hits in 46 plate appearances. LOL!
Top image: Screengrab via Sportsnet
Charlie's positivity may be worth the strategic oddities. I keep thinking of the Chicago White Sox. They're winning baseball games, but from all reports are anything but happy doing this. Yermín Mercedes, apparantly, was so unhappy that he nearly quit baseball for good last week. Contrast this with Teoscar Hernández, who also was sent back to triple-AAA and came back motivated to be a better player. I just wonder if there is room to hire somebody as 'in game strategic advisor to Charlie' even if his job title says something different.
So Tampa is better than us now and has a better farm system. How do we compete with them?