Atkins speaks!: On Pearson's setback, Montoyo's extension, Merryweather's role, McGuire v. Kirk, and more!
We’re going with a bit of a different format for this one, because — gasp! — there is actually quite a bit of news to go through. Here are today’s spring notes!
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Pearson our illusions…
Jays GM Ross Atkins had a session with reporters prior to the Jays-Phillies game in Clearwater, and there’s a lot to unpack from it, but the biggest piece of news is that Nate Pearson — the young starting pitcher that so much of the Blue Jays’ 2021 success could rely on — has had a setback in his recovery from the groin strain that had shut him down earlier in camp. Calling it a “mild reaggravation” of the injury, which occurred today during a bullpen session. Atkins announced that Pearson has once again been backed off and that the timetable for his return is undetermined at this point.
On one hand, we knew that the team was obviously going to be extremely careful with him as he deals with this. He’s not going to be able to pitch a full workload in 2021, so his innings are going to need to be managed somehow. Not that they want to be in this situation, there’s not doubt that shaving off a bit of time at the start of his season is a better way to help do that than having to shut him down early.
On the other hand.
You definitely do not like to see how often Pearson is getting hurt. This is a guy whose body is dealing with extreme forces, compared to even your average MLB pitcher, let alone a regular person, and staying healthy can be tricky for those types — especially when they’re young. That part can’t be avoided sometimes.
What could have been avoided, however, is the Blue Jays’ extreme reliance on a guy like Pearson, who was allowed to remain the club’s second-best starter this winter, despite the opportunity to bring in someone that could slot in behind Hyun Jin Ryu.
The Jays opted not to do that, and while it may work out for them — the early returns on guys like Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, and Ross Stripling have at least been encouraging — I can’t help but think of how a team like the Padres approached the off-season, bringing in Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, and Yu Darvish. All three of those guys were acquired via trade, not massive free agent expenditures. And they were brought in despite the fact that the Padres already had some excellent young pitching talent of their own, including a prospect as highly regarded as Pearson in lefty MacKenzie Gore, who spent 2019 in Double-A and 2020 at the club’s alternate site.
Julian not-so-Merryweather
The Pearson news — while hardly catastrophic — was perhaps made a touch worse thanks to another of Atkins’ announcements on Tuesday, which was the fact that the plan for right-hander Julian Merryweather this year is to use him the same way as he was used last year.
Or, if you’d prefer Atkins’ own words: “The way he was used last year is how we're thinking about him this year.”
That they’re “thinking about him” in last year’s role leaves the door open a bit for a change, I suppose, but that’s more a rhetorical strategy than it is anything for fans to really cling to. So, yeah, I fully expect Merryweather to return to that multi-innings relief/opener role.
That’s not the worst thing in the world, but it sure would have been nice if Merryweather could have simply been bumped up into the rotation in Pearson’s absence. He certainly has the “stuff” to be a quality starting pitcher, but, of course, he too is a poster boy for the idea that health is a skill. (He’s dealing with back tightness currently and there’s no word as yet on when he’ll get into game action.)
Merryweather — who, you probably remember, was acquired in exchange for Josh Donaldson at the very end of August 2018 — was supposed to be “out of options” this year, meaning that the Jays couldn’t send him to Buffalo without first placing him on waivers and allowing any other club the chance to claim him. But because he has been hurt so often in his career to date, over the winter an additional minor league option year was imposed on him. The Jays could have made use of that situation to keep him as a starter, in Buffalo if necessary. Instead he’ll go back to being a reliever, perhaps forever.
If you watched him in those early outings in 2020 it should be easy to understand why the Jays would want him pitching big league innings for them this season (and the fact that the minor league season is being delayed at least a month is likely also a reason why they probably don’t want him there). He’s certainly capable of being a weapon, and the fact that he can be optioned should help the Jays as they churn through relievers over the course of the season. But there’s no question that having him as a starter, in the long run, would be better. Hopefully he gets healthy and stays healthy enough so that we can revisit this debate next spring.
Montoyo extended
Speaking of next spring, though there was never any reason to doubt that Charlie Montoyo would be back as the Jays’ manager when the club returns to Dunedin in the spring of 2022, in his Tuesday session Atkins made it all but official that he will, announcing that the club has exercised the 2022 option on Montoyo’s contract.
“He’s very steady in-game. His instincts are incredible. His collaboration with his staff has continued to be a strength,” Atkins told reporters. “The character, the ability to create a very positive, constructive environment, is very encouraging. I couldn’t be happier working alongside him.”
I think it would have taken something pretty monumental for Montoyo not to be back in 2022 — and, technically, that could still happen — but this is clearly news nonetheless. BREAKING: The Jays still like their own hand-picked manager who has been every bit the upbeat guy and malleable strategist that they were looking for in the first place.
Speed is king
Here’s what I thought was a small but rather interesting aside from Atkins’ media session:
I’m not sure that I would categorize T.J. Zeuch — pronounced “Zook” if you’re a member of the Pirates’ TV crew, apparently — throwing a bit harder while continuing to barely strike anybody out as “great” news for the Blue Jays organization. Like Merryweather, he can be optioned to the minors, and so should be a part of this season’s great reliever churn, but great as his sink might be, one strikeout over seven spring innings from a guy who last year managed just three strikeouts in 11 1/3 big league innings, is a bit of a concern. Not every reliever needs to be vintage Craig Kimbrel, but it’s kind of important to at least strike somebody out.
There was, however, a bit of good news on the spring training velocity front on Monday. But before I get too deep into that, a little bit of context. With the proliferation of Hawk-Eye cameras and Statcast data at spring training parks throughout Florida and Arizona, spring velocities are no longer dubious because of "hot guns,” but they still only give us a picture of where a pitcher was at for a given moment in time. Someone might be working on something, or working his way up to full throttle, or doing any number of things. Nitpicking at this stage really isn't the greatest idea. However, if there's something positive to be gleaned from velocity readings, then that's a bit different.
That's what Hyun Jin Ryu provided on Monday against the Tigers in Lakeland, when he threw a pitch at 92.2 mph, another at 92.0 mph, and averaged 90.5 over 18 four-seam fastballs on the day.
Why is that significant? Well, for starters, Ryu only threw four pitches above 92.0 mph in 2020. And his average fastball velocity for the season was 89.8.
For another thing, he averaged just 88.2 in his only other outing so far this spring, maxing out at 89.8.
And for a third thing, Ryu seemed to fare better when he was throwing harder in 2020, producing a 1.57 ERA in the five starts in which he averaged better than 90 mph on his fastball, and a 3.52 ERA in the seven ones where his fastball average was under. (Though, before we go treating those small-sample numbers as gospel, it's worth noting that he struck out 23.6% of the batters he faced in those harder-throwing games, and 27.9% in the other ones.)
That doesn’t include his rough playoff start against the Rays, in which his four-seamer averaged just 88.2.
Ryu doesn’t necessarily need velocity, but I think it’s safe to say it was great to see him have it. Especially because, with Pearson even more of a doubt, the Jays are going to need the best of Ryu now more than ever.
Still thinking about that reliever churn…
Here’s a little bit of interesting news that’s not from Atkins’ media session:
Francisco Liriano hasn't exactly set the world on fire here this spring, but he's been fine. He got into a bit of a jam on Saturday against the Orioles, but got himself out of it. He's struck out four batters in the four innings he's worked so far (though he's also walked three). He's been healthy and his velocity has been where you want it to be so far, which, as a veteran, means he’s pretty much ticking all the boxes he needs to.
That’s a bit unfortunate for Mayza, given the contract status of both lefties. Mayza has been the better pitcher so far this spring, but the sensible play in terms of asset management seems to be to have him start the year in the minors or on the taxi squad.
As usual, I think Josh Howsam has it just about right here;
Yep. The Jays have quietly built themselves a pretty dangerous bullpen. It would be a shame for Trent Thornton to not make the team out of camp, I think, but I’m sure he’ll definitely get a good number of big league innings this year provided he can stay healthy.
O Captain! My Captain!
During his media session, Ross Atkins could only offer a “we’ll see” when asked about catcher Alejandro Kirk making the team out of spring training. That’s fair, I think, given that Reese McGuire is still battling for that job, and out of minor league options. But do the Jays give up on McGuire just ensure they have Kirk with them the whole year? Um, probably!
While it’s true that McGuire has the vague shape of a valuable piece, very good defensive catchers who can’t hit a lick aren’t exactly difficult to come by. Yes, McGuire has a higher career wRC+ than Danny Jansen at this stage, but we're talking about just 183 big league plate appearances from a guy who slashed .247/.316/.366 in Buffalo in 2019, and .233/.312/.339 there the year before that. He looked every bit that bad in his limited action in 2020 — which, of course, is why Kirk is in the conversation in the first place.
Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star has revised an earlier set of roster projections to now include Kirk as the club’s backup catcher. “Kirk has been behind the plate for each of Robbie Ray’s three spring starts, which appears to be laying the groundwork for a personal catcher situation during the regular season,” he notes.
I’ve seen some fans stumping for McGuire in the name of asset management, which I think is understandable given that we’re all sort of forced to think in those terms if we’re going to be informed fans of the sport at this point, but given what McGuire is — not what he looked like for 100 plate appearances or so back in 2019, but what he is — I’m not sure the Jays need to get all that cute about it. McGuire will, in all likelihood, have a long career bouncing around from place to place. Guy like him are useful. I don’t think they’re a reason to try to stop the oncoming train that is Locomotive Kirk, though.
Lastly…
And now something that may only be of interest to me, it’s Ajax midfielder Davy Klaassen decked out in a Jays shirt working on his fastball! WHAT?
Uh, maybe don’t quit your day job, Davy.
As to why the Blue Jays shirt, I could only guess, but I sure hope it has something to do with the fact that the Blue Jays now employ a couple of the brightest lights to have come out of the Honkbal Hoofdklasse, pitchers Sem Robberse and Jiorgeny Casimiri.
I wrote about the pair a little bit earlier this month, after the Jays’ VP of international scouting, Andrew Tinnish, discussed them on Keith Law’s podcast.
UPDATE: It’s not, it’s somehow even better (and now that Parkes mentions it, it does sort of ring a bell)…
Top image: Screengrab via the Toronto Blue Jays/@theHazelMae
I would like to see them get something for McGuire rather than cut him for nothing. Even if it means stashing Captain Kirk at Buffalo for two weeks. I mean, you'd be cashing in the value of the difference between McGuire and Kirk in a small number of games -- maybe 6-8 games ? -- for a depth org. piece. But maybe I've just been force-fed the asset-management-Kool-Aid for too long.