Atkins Speaks!: The Mid-2025 Update!
On deadline plans, opportunities for improvement, maintaining defensive integrity, the cost of doing business, Trey Yesavage, Alek Manoah, Anthony Santander, and a whole lot more!
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Good lord, there is an absolute load of algorithm-humping dogshit Blue Jays coverage out there these days, eh?
Forgive me if I sound like too much of an old man here—guilty!—because I honestly am well aware that clickbait, content mills, and cynical SEO abuse have been around for as long as I have in these parts. I also understand that it’s practically a prerequisite for up-and-comers to gain any traction for their work. You can’t just start making dick jokes about a baseball team for an audience of four and wind up written about in the Globe and Mail six months later anymore, it seems. But I’ve just spent some time plumbing the depths of Google, searching for anything close to a complete version of Jays GM Ross Atkins’ meeting with the media earlier this week and, boy oh boy, it’s grim out there.
I don’t want to belabour this—and I certainly don’t want to act like there isn’t also a ton of genuinely interesting, informed, intelligent, human-made Blue Jays content out there these days either—but yeesh. If you know, you know.
Anyway! For some reason TSN, of all outlets, posted eight minutes worth of the scrum across two clips—perhaps in some sort of an effort to get people to stop asking where the hell Scott Mitchell has gone? I was also able to hear some additional audio by way of a recent Blair and Barker episode, albeit with the two of them yammering on about god knows what for minutes at a time in between. Add in a quick check of some of the other pieces to have emerged in the days since, and I think what I’ve got is just about complete. Or, at least, complete enough that Christmas in July is saved! We can have ourselves an good, ol’ fashioned Atkins Speaks! after all!
YOU KNOW THE DRILL!
Atkins Speaks!
What do you like about how you're playing and has that changed your deadline outlook?
Yeah, I mean, it's been a really, really solid year for us in many ways, to have overcome some of the injuries that we've had, and not having some key contributions. To be in a strong position is definitely a good outcome. We obviously can be better, and we'll focus on that on a daily basis—certainly not resting on the fact that we're in a decent position. But we feel very good about the work that's been done.
There are a lot of fans who always huff and puff about Ross never actually saying anything of substance and how love to tune him out, except when they can glom on to some out-of-context quote and craft the most lemon-suckingly negative response to it imaginable as some kind of a substitute for their total lack of a personality, and I think they do themselves a disservice in that way.
Not here, though. He’s really not giving us much here.
Yet he’s not wrong, either. For the Jays to be where they are—and this was all spoken before the Yankees series even began—while getting practically nothing from Anthony Santander, Daulton Varsho, and Max Scherzer is pretty wacky.
Where do you feel you need improvement with respect to the deadline?
The good news is that there's nothing glaring—for us, from our perspective. We have some key contributions from different areas, and some good balance to our 40-man and our 26-man. So I think we'll be more focused on—as we have been focused on—how we can improve the 40-man roster, how we can incrementally improve the 26-man roster. We've played incredible defence, so if you're adding to your offence you want to be cognizant of not chipping away at that run-prevention.
And on the pitching side, we've had really good stories out of our bullpen. Our starting pitching is coming into form now. And we have some other guys getting healthy. But we'll continue to work on how we can improve upon the deployment, individually and from a team standpoint. And then, obviously, as we have been, think about any way that we can improve our depth.
This response right here is exactly the kind of thing I mean when I say that a certain type of fan is missing out by not wanting to hear anything Atkins ever says. Yes, the second half of the quote gets a bit mealy-mouthed in the way that only Ross can, but the distinction between the 40-man and the 26-man stuff is sort of interesting, no? As is the suggestion that he’d want to “incrementally” improve the active roster.
Now, the latter bit may just be Ross being careful not to say anything that makes anyone in the clubhouse think his job isn’t secure, or that what they’ve done so far isn’t appreciated. Surely he also knows other organizations will be listening and maybe doesn’t want to tip his hand. He could also be trying to avoid signaling to the fan base that bigger deals are coming than they might be able to pull off, Or it could be a sign that his thinking is more grounded in the fact that they shouldn’t need a whole lot more offensively if Varsho and Santander come back and simply play to expectations—and that they may not have a ton of room to add on the offensive side of the ball anyway. Expectation management is surely part of his job on both fronts, and we’ll see that throughout his comments, I think.
As for the the 40-man versus 26-man thing, I think it probably makes more sense than it appears to on the surface. I can’t imagine that the aim is actually for mere incremental improvements at the big league level—though, I suppose, an “increment” could be literally anything. But I certainly can imagine that a GM would be thinking more in terms of the 40-man than just the 26-man roster here.
The Jays are pretty tight to their 40 at the moment, and they’re going to need room to manoeuvre as they bring in deadline additions, bring back 60-day IL guys like Ryan Burr or Alek Manoah, and consider bringing up prospects not yet on the 40-man—like potentially a Ricky Tiedeman or Trey Yesavage—to help with their stretch drive.
Players who’ll potentially need to be added to the 40-man this winter need to be considered as well. So it’s actually kind of imperative that Atkins consolidate some of the talent there that isn’t currently in the big leagues and turn it into upgrades. Otherwise guys will ultimately get squeezed out and leave for nothing—a fate that may have ultimately befallen Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein had they not been traded for Jordan Hicks a couple of years ago.
Orelvis Martinez and Jonatan Clase will both be out of options next spring, for example. And as important as it is that the Jays get better in the majors, it’s very important for him to be thinking about those kinds of things, too.
Do you see more opportunities in run creation or run prevention?
Probably on the run-prevention side, more just from a depth standpoint. If we can score more, we'll look to do that. Adding a right-handed hitter to our team is something we've been trying to do internally, and considered external alternatives as well. But on the run-prevention side it's probably going to come from pitching, as good as our defence has been.
I didn’t address Atkins’ “chipping away” comment in the section above above, partly because I was already in the middle of writing a novel of an answer, and partly because I knew this would be just as good a place to do so. He basically gives away the game here, telling us that run prevention seems to be where the opportunities will ultimately lie once the trade market develops, and that he doesn’t really want to mess much with his defence anyway.
Translation: They’re going after pitching.
I mean, he can’t exactly say that, and he isn’t precisely saying that, but he’s clearly uncomfortable with the idea of messing with the defence.
Fair enough, seeing as the Jays, at +36, are currently 15 runs better than the second best team according to Statcast’s all-encompassing Fielding Run Value metric (and there are only six teams in the entire sport above +10). But the thing about that is, Ross is already going to have his hands full trying not to mess too much with the defence when Anthony Santander returns, because at this point in their careers it certainly feels as though he and George Springer both belong at DH.
That doesn’t mean things can’t change, of course. Someone could get hurt, or an unexpectedly soft market for a guy they really like could develop. But my reading of the tea leaves—especially since he simply said a a right-handed hitter and didn’t specify an “impact” one, and because he seems to feel there could be serviceable ones already in house (Davis Schneider had a pretty impressive June)—is that fans expecting another bat-first slugger are probably going to wind up disappointed.
You know… as usual.
How do you add depth with out making redundant or diminishing the contributions from guys like Barger, Clement, and Straw?
You only have so many opportunities to add. So when you do, you need to, when you're a healthy, winning organization. And know that you're going to need to rely on contributions from many fronts.
So, we do believe that those contributions are real, from the names that you've mentioned—they've really been incredible. Alejandro Kirk's year, and George Springer's year as well. And obviously Vladdy and Bo have been so consistent for us this year.
So, we're planning on having those contributions be a big part of our solution, but it's not going to keep us from adding to the group. But, as I mentioned before, it is something where you need to make sure that you're factoring in that we're not going to chip away too much defence from taking someone's playing time that makes contributions on both sides of the ball in a significant way.
OK, this answer makes me a little more bullish on the idea that a bigger bat could be coming—“when you do, you need to, when you're a healthy, winning organization” is some boss shit—but really only just a little. Annoying as it is when GMs say stuff like this, Varsho and Santander are some very real offensive additions that we already know are coming. (And that’s especially so if you’re Ross Atkins and you believe in their bats—something I suspect a lot of Jays fans probably wouldn’t say they quite do at this point.)
I’m not trying to be too downbeat here, because pitching additions would absolutely be exciting for this group. Especially—though they maybe don’t need it with some of the prospects on their way—if they can make a move for a starter with term who could help them in 2026 and beyond, with the likes of Scherzer, Bassitt, and Gausman soon to be off the books.
That, however, might not be so easy…
Historically the price for leverage relievers and top starters both tend to be very high this time of year. Do you think you have the chance to add both?
I mean, it's so hard to execute a trade. Is it possible? Sure. I think we're one of five to 10 teams that are in positions to make significant moves of impact, and we've shown that over the past five to six years. And if there's ways to do something of significant impact like that we'll certainly work to it, but just executing half of what you talked about is extremely hard to do.
This question came from Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, and we can see it now as foreshadowing the must-read piece he published here on Wednesday, in which he combed through all 68 trades made at last years deadline, looking at real-world examples of the cost of various types of players: platoon bats, everyday players, low-velo relievers, rental and controllable leverage relievers, back-end starters, and guys you’d trust with the ball for a playoff start.
There’s a ton of value in breaking things down that way, and it adds up to some exorbitant costs for the Jays if they are really are going to try to transform themselves into a 2025-focused powerhouse, rather than hold back a little more and simply roll the playoff dice.
On one hand, it’s great that Atkins is talking about being a position to do the former. And if there’s a deal out there where they can flex their financial muscles instead of shedding prospect capital? Well, the best year to have done that was literally every other year before this one, but the next-best year to do it is now.
Seriously, though, wouldn’t it be sort of nice to keep all those sparkling pitching prospects until there’s a real surplus there to go out and make moves with (while keeping the best ones, obviously)?
Why do you consider yourselves one of those five to 10? Financial? Because of how the farm system has progressed? And how would you compare it to where you were this winter?
I think it's similar. We've had such good support—where our payroll is—and we've had the ability to add to our team in different ways. Not every team can say that year in and year out.
The bad old days are certainly behind us, aren’t they? At least for the time being.
Where do you think your farm system is at and what do you think may be the strengths of it with respect to the deadline deals you're looking to make?
A lot of it has come here in the last couple of years, and some of it has come and gone. We have an incredible amount of outfield depth in the Major Leagues and Triple-A, so the position player group is stronger at this point. We do have some really young, impressive pitching, and a couple of really young impressive prospects in our system. So there's some balance to it, but the upper-level position player group is where we've had a lot of teams reach out to us.
Accumulating as many position players at the upper levels as the Jays did at last summer’s trade deadline always seemed to be by design, and dealing some of them at this year’s deadline was very likely part of that design. Something’s got to give sooner or later, so there’s no sense in Ross being coy about it. Which, I suppose, he wasn’t.
I don’t imagine there’s enough there to really supercharge this roster with big name acquisitions, but they should be able to be pretty aggressive on some smaller things—and sometimes that can be nearly as good.
How is the trade market shaping up?
Certainly going to move slow at this point. Like, the market hasn't taken shape. There's a lot of teams that are undecided on what they're doing and will be for some time. So, I think that's a little more significant than in years past, but that could change in 10 days.
This just feels like the new reality, with six playoff teams in each league now. It feels like the playoff teams are coming into focus, especially having watched what the Jays have done over the last couple of months, but right now there are fully 10 teams that sit within five games of a wild card spot—and that doesn’t include the 12 that are already in playoff position.
On Trey Yesavage becoming a factor in 2025
I think 15 years ago I probably would have said "probably not." You know, that's a lot to ask. And I think in today's game, because of how strong the amateur game has become, and how much they have improved at development, that it is more realistic for these guys to transition to the major leagues at a very rapid rate. Having said that, that's not our focus. Our focus is for him to build a foundation for him to be a major league starting pitcher for 10 to whatever years—which is so hard to do. So that will be what is the backdrop of our focus, but we're not closing doors on contributions from significant impact players in our system.
These words would have surprised me even just a couple months ago, but everything Yesavage has done this season has put him on this track. I’d still be surprised if he actually makes it to the big leagues, but if he does manage to adjust to Double-A over his next few outings—it’s been a rocky beginning for him in New Hampshire, with an awfully high walk rate and an ERA of 5.79 over 14 innings across four starts—maybe I could see it. Count me as doubtful, for now.
I’d bet on him pitching in the majors before I bet on him getting traded though!
What are some of the things that he's done that have put him into that kind of a position for you?
Well, again, our focus isn't for him to come up here and be on our major league roster any time soon. I think just getting into the major league routine—or the professional routine—and pitching every five to six days has been the biggest one. His command has improved as he's made now two transitions—he's handled those exceptionally well. His arsenal is already something that projects to be very effective, so I think it's really the workload that's been the biggest stride he's made. And managing that very well.
I’d have wondered about the idea of pushing these guys so much back before I looked into the Jays’ new minor league pitching director, Justin Lehr, for a piece last week, and the changes the club made last winter in order to help stem the tide of pitching injuries that decimated their prospect pool last season. But, really, that stuff appears to have been much less about where and when a prospect pitches, and more about how—specifically, about building a strike-throwing foundation before chasing things like velo and pitch shape that may put undue strain on young arms.
This week Mitch Bannon of the Athletic had an excellent and much more in-depth piece on the changes, too.
Is there a comparison to his ascent and Alek Manoah's in 2021?
I haven't thought of those two, but off the top of my head... you know, sure. There is some similarities in their—I think Trey's workload on the amateur side was actually even better, off the top of my head. But I think from a competitive standpoint, yes. From a stuff standpoint, yes. Yeah, it's impressive what Alek did and what Trey is now doing.
“You know, sure.” Lol. Yeah, lets just go with that and move on.
On Manoah and relying on his return to add rotation depth…
Yeah, absolutely. We are expecting that. But similar to the question before, you can't bank on anything. You've got to make sure that you're covered and have different ways to attack potential gaps.
Relying is, of course, a bit of a loaded word here. How can you rely on a guy who was unplayable in 2023 and then managed only two good starts, really, before his elbow blew up in 2024?
I mean, I’d be lying if I didn’t say that I believe in Manoah more than I would just any old guy. And I’m certainly pulling for him to look like the best version of himself again. It would be downright magical, wouldn’t it?
But “rely” is a tough word. I’m not ready to go that far yet either.
Lastly, on Anthony Santander…
The thing that I know has been talked about, probably, a great deal over the time with Schneids is just how tough he is. He tried to play through some pain, and it got to the point where it seemed like it wasn't the best thing to do. So now, at this point, we want to make sure that he's absolutely symptom free before he returns to a hitting progression—and he's nearing that. We're feeling a lot better about where he is at this point. He's optimistic, he's in good spirits.
He did have a subluxation—which I'm not so sure that has been publicly said—when he slid into the wall. So, his shoulder popped in and out. And that can cause some strain, and we could see some inflammation from that. But that wasn't new to him arriving in Florida.
The injury being referred to here occurred in Anaheim, during a series between May 6th and 8th, apparently. To be honest, I kinda preferred it when I thought the shoulder issue had been affecting his performance all along.
I must also say that I kinda don’t love that Santander was sitting on a 64 wRC+ heading into that series, and that in the games that followed it his mark went down to… 63.
I’m certainly not as down on the guy as a lot of the fans I’ve seen, but woof.
Still, Atkins said, as noted in Sportsnet’s write-up of the scrum, that it hasn’t been ruled out that he could start swinging the bat again before the All-Star break. Tough as it can be to watch him when he’s going awfully—because good lord there’s not a lot he does except hit the ball out of the yard (supposedly)—I think it’s impossible not to be excited to be getting him back.
No, really! Sorry, not sorry!
Annnnnd… OK, that’s it! Now let’s beat those Yankees fucks another time, take hold of top spot in the AL East, and never look back!!!!
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