Atkins speaks! (To Ben and Arden)
On preparations for the offseason, Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien, wooing free agents, player development, the CBA, the Rogers mess, areas of need, and a whole lot more.
Jays GM Ross Atkins sat down with Ben Nicholson-Smith and Arden Zwelling for this week’s episode of Sportsnet’s At The Letters podcast. So let’s talk about it!
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With a busy off-season just about to get underway, Ross Atkins sat down with Ben and Arden earlier this week to talk about his preparations for the offseason, Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien, wooing free agents, player development, the CBA, the Rogers mess, areas of need, and a whole lot more.
Now, lately when Ross has spoken to the media I’ve been providing full transcriptions, but as this is from a podcast, and I don’t want to discourage anyone from listening, I’m just going to pick out several of highlights. There’s a whole lot more in there to listen to, and it’s definitely worth doing so, as Ross tends to open up a bit more in this format than in a presser, and Ben and Arden are both excellent at choosing the right questions to ask.
On surveying baseball operations staff members on how to make the team better
This one comes out of something Atkins said in his end-of-season Zoom call with reporters. When he was asked about potential targets to acquire and whether the team already had anyone in mind, he explained that they were still in the process of developing their lists.
“We actually spend a lot of time thinking individually before we come together as a group,” he continued. “We've asked well over 30 very detailed, specific questions to our entire baseball operations group, for them to think individually about how we can improve the team. And then we'll bring those thoughts and ideas together, and discuss them. And come up with those lists and those targets that we feel make the most sense for everyone.”
In his conversation on ATL, he elaborated on the concept.
I heard that idea probably 10 or 12 years ago, that another organization was doing it. Probably during the process of interviewing someone from another organization and just thought, wow, that makes so much sense to get a lot of individual thoughts before we start having group discussion. And it's across a very large group. It's not just Joe Sheehan, Charlie Montoyo, Mike Murov, and I having that discussion and dialogue. I think the survey goes to over 35 people, I just don't know the exact number off the top of my head. And then after reading Thinking, Fast and Slow, continued education, the more you read about decision making, the more you read about groupthink, the more sense it made to me to ensure that we were thinking about all of the little things before we start making a very big decision, because things speed up. As we know, maybe not all would agree with this but I think the research is pretty strong, that humans aren't the best at judgment, and having a process for that, to gather information just makes a lot of sense.
A couple interesting things here. First, I think it’s quite interesting that Charlie Montoyo is listed here along with some of the club’s top baseball operations leaders. I don’t want to read too much into what could just be a random jumble of names — I certainly wouldn’t think anything of the fact that Ross didn’t mention Mark Shapiro, Tony LaCava, or Andrew Tinnish — but it reminds me of the way that when the Jays were searching for a manger they wanted someone (as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet put it at the time) “to fill an expanded vision for the manager role, which will include co-ordinating with multiple facets of the organization rather than focusing solely on the 25-man big-league roster.”
Charlie has a much bigger role than just the few things fans see on the field and get angry about, is what I’m saying.
The other interesting thing about this quote is the reading material, which I always find insightful. Thinking, Fast and Slow is a 2011 book by psychologist Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences for his work in behavioural economics. The book's Wikipedia page explains that its "main thesis is that of a dichotomy between two modes of thought: 'System 1' is fast, instinctive and emotional; 'System 2' is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The book delineates rational and non-rational motivations or triggers associated with each type of thinking process, and how they complement each other, starting with Kahneman's own research on loss aversion. From framing choices to people's tendency to replace a difficult question with one which is easy to answer, the book summarizes several decades of research to suggest that people have too much confidence in human judgement."
Should have read it before signing Tanner Roark, my dude!
On why the team felt confident they could help Robbie Ray improve
I think it was the combination of him changing his arm action before the 2020 season and then getting back to the end of the 2020 season and into the playoffs, where we saw closer to the consistency that he had in years prior. Not quite the 2017-18 version of himself, but definitely seeing the consistency and the tunnelling of the fastball and slider occurring where the effectiveness was better, and the reasons to believe that it would continue to improve were in front of us because of that trajectory that we saw occurring. And then things that we heard him talking about, and adjustments that he — and small adjustments that he and Pete were making. Pete's been great and we're very grateful for his contributions. Matt Buschmann's been incredible in complementing Pete Walker, and I think the three of them really had good synergy and we could see a trajectory that made sense to make what was not a very risky bet.
This all brought to mind a good thread the other day from Jarrett Seidler of Baseball Prospectus, who — though he was talking about prospect evaluation — had some good thoughts on worries about pitchers like Ray who only have two offerings.
I’m certainly guilty of occasionally raising an eyebrow about giving a big contract to a “two-pitch pitcher” like Ray, so maybe this is only interesting to me. But I think this stuff, along with some of Atkins’ comments here, gives a good little snapshot of where the pitching side of the industry is at right now.
On selling players on Toronto and the team
I think that this is an attractive place to play. From the very beginning we've said we want to be the best place to work and play in baseball. We're not there yet, but we're a lot closer. You can never know for certain, but I do believe — I have a great deal of confidence — that we're not going to have to sell our situation.
Follow up: if you’re not there yet, how do get there?
I think the biggest thing is winning. Being the year in and year out contender that everyone is not wanting to play. And we definitely took that step this year, but now we need to get deep into the playoffs and do it year in and year out. And then we'll continue to do things to the stadium, we'll continue to do things to facilities, we'll continue to think about resources and make sure that's always cutting edge — because I don't think we'll arrive there and say we're there, you're always pushing to be at another level. But I think we've made big strides.
This is all good, and I’m sure true. And it had better be! The Jays may have a lot of money coming off the books — something I wrote about extensively in a piece last month — but it’s going to be a pretty competitive market this winter, I think.
There’s San Francisco, there’s Detroit, there’s Seattle. There’s all the usual suspects — especially if the luxury tax number goes up (though, seeing as it functions as a de facto salary cap, I’m sure MLB will be fighting not to allow that). Fortunately there is also a lot of free agent talent available this winter, because the hot stove could go really go nuclear over some guys. (You know… eventually.)
On Marcus Semien
I think that there is nothing more powerful than preparing and recovering and making sure that's a part of your routine every day. They're still getting better at it, Bo and Vladdy. Marcus is very good at thinking about his day. He doesn't waver from his routine ever. And if something has to take him off of it, because life happens, he finds a way to get that piece of his routine that was disrupted back into his day somehow. That's another level of discipline. He has a remarkable level.
This comment came from a bigger answer to a question that wasn’t specifically about Semien, but I wanted to highlight it because of how clear Atkins’ respect for him comes through. Reading words on the page doesn’t do it justice either. The meaning of the shift in his tone of voice when he said “Marcus is very good” was unmistakable.
Bring him back!
On routines and players making the leap to the big leagues
Continuing from what he was saying about Semien, Atkins added some interesting thoughts on how players become big leaguers.
He's driven. He is clearly driven and exceptionally disciplined. And, you know, most really good players that I've been around are exceptionally disciplined to their routines — that they have to have it. They have to have that. And I think it's a big part of why you hear about, when young players come to the major leagues, to make sure they're respectful of not disrupting the timing of how the more veteran players prepare and are getting ready. And I think the pendulum has shifted to allow for a younger player to transition better because now younger players have better routines before they get there, and the more veteran players realize the only way to win at this game is to have also your younger prospects transitioning well.
So that integration of players into new environments and cultures is more welcoming. The understanding of routines and the importance of them, and trying to learn from the veteran players, is something that is always talked about. And I think it's a big reason why younger players are transitioning better is that they're being embraced.
This comment brought to you by the taxpayers of Pinellas County, Florida!
On how the Jays stack up on the pitching development front
We've made huge strides. Early on we had an emphasis to thinking through, from a delivery standpoint, what was going to allow pitchers to be on the field and continue to grow and learn. Then we went through, after we felt like we got a handle on that, a wave of thinking about just arm strength and adding velocity where appropriate, and adding, potentially, spin rate where appropriate. And now to refining the command. Starting with a foundation, from a philosophical standpoint, then thinking about how we could increase power, and without compromising command. The Rays and the [Guardians] have just been a cohesive collective group that has been together for so long, using certain tools and resources for a while, that they're seeing they've aligned the acquisition and the development, and now you're seeing the results of that. And I think we're closing the gap on that, for sure, as an organization.
It’s kind of fascinating to hear just how much of a long-term process this was and how defined the steps were. Obviously when Shapiro and Atkins arrived they weren’t going to be able to overhaul the development system in a day, or even a year, but it’s a bit surprising that they don’t even feel like they’re there yet, six years in. That’s not a criticism — there have definitely been some good stories out of the organization lately, like Ricky Tiedemann, who I mentioned in my most recent piece, and Zach Logue, who I wrote about in my prospect stock watch piece the other week — it’s just… I didn’t realize that.
On the impact of the expiring CBA on offseason plans
For us it's business as usual. Hasn't impacted us thus far. The areas where we have uncertainty we don't feel will implicate us long-term. If there are rule changes that come from it, if things that are subtly different about compensation, whether that be in the draft or just how players are compensated. We don't feel as though, based on the direction and the guidance that we've been given, that we need to do anything differently, and we're operating business as usual. I suppose there could be a time where have to make a decision with a little less certainty about a certain aspect of what it means long-term — could be in a contract, where we may have to have just a really candid conversation with the agent, and obviously collaboration with Major League Baseball and the union on (being) unsure what this means for a potential extension based on the current rules and what could lie forward. So, we may have to make a decision without certainty and clarity, but I think we'll be able to do that with the collaboration of Major League Baseball and the union.
This doesn’t differ much from the optimism we heard from Mark Shapiro at his end-of-season presser last month, and I suppose it’s good that teams appear to be getting told that they don’t need to do anything differently, but that feeling of optimism is certainly not being shared throughout the game. Benny Fresh had a great piece about that this week at Sportsnet, reporting that “various agents are privately expecting MLB owners to lock players out on Dec. 1, when the current collective bargaining agreement expires,” and quoting one as saying that it “seems inevitable.”
That’s the bad news. The good news, however, is that he adds that “no one I’ve spoken to expects a work stoppage to significantly shorten or erase the 2022 season.” We just might end up getting a condensed off-season sometime in the new year. Woof.
On the Rogers mess
We've had ongoing dialogue, whether that be Mark directly, our group interactions— there's different touch points that... it's been going now for six years, where we have the ongoing exchange of information, ideas. Our vision has been clearly stated and we've felt nothing but support.
A fairly standard answer here, but I thought worth noting. (A decision on the validity of Edward Rogers’ attempt to remake the board of directors at the company is expected to be handed down by a B.C. judge on Friday.)
On offseason strategy
Last year we felt as though, partially — maybe you can read between the lines here by what I just offered — is that I feel like we're in a stronger position than we were a year ago. Last year we talked about 'if possible it would be ideal' if we could add a player of significant impact, consolidated into one player. Didn't have to, but in an ideal world that would have been a good outcome for us, and fortunately we were able to do that. And in an ideal world we'd like to do that again, but we don't have to.
I think we're in a position where it could go either way for us, where maybe there is another high impact player or two that we potentially add, and maybe not. Maybe we're in a scenario where it's four or five players that are complementing our roster. Maybe some of them aren't even everyday regular pieces. I don't want to just roll out exactly what our first move is going to be and how we're going to approach that, but I feel that we're in a position where we have a much stronger foundation, so we have more agility at this point.
We love agility, don’t we?
I have an idea. How about getting a couple impact players and a bunch of complementary ones too. Huh? Huh?
On “diversifying the lineup”
I mean, listen, we're fine offensively. Somebody asked me the question, would you ideally like to have more balance? Sure. It's like, I think you asked me in 2016, would you like to be more athletic and younger? Yes! Right? But how do you do that?
Offence is not our problem. We do not have to score more runs. I will say this, however: we were fantastic at putting runs on the board early in games, and against really high leverage relievers late in games we didn't fare quite as well as the league did. I think we were 18th or 19th against really high leverage relievers when they were matching up against us late in games. And I would just, if possible, like to have more opportunities to not be matched up quite as well. But in the end, right-handed or left-handed, that's not our problem. We obviously did not struggle to score, it's more about having different scenarios to combat the way we're being attacked if possible.
In 2021 the Diamondbacks sent a left-handed hitter (or a switch hitter hitting from the left side) up to the plate to face a right-handed pitcher 3,078 times. That was the highest number in baseball. The New York Yankees did so 1,284 times. That was the 29th highest number in baseball. The only team lower was the Blue Jays at 915.
Now, the fact that the Yankees and the Jays — two excellent offensive teams — are at the bottom of this list maybe means that Atkins is right that handedness doesn't really matter if you just have a bunch of great hitters. The Astros ranked 28th, too. But, I dunno, they could probably use another lefty!
Atkins continued:
There's really strong bullpens that are built, especially in the AL East. You look at the Yankees' and the Rays' bullpens and the way that they were able to attack our very good right-handed lineup was less than ideal. That's OK. That's not our problem. But someone asked me the question, if possible could you have more balance or maybe potentially another left-handed hitter — I'm excited about Cavan Biggio, and I know he's going to be back closer to the '19 and '20 version of himself; he didn’t with the injuries and the setbacks this year. I'm really excited about his complement. He's the solution. He's a huge part of the solution for us. It's not just the handedness — I think I talked about that as well — it's, we're fine with aggression, I love to see players that are extremely aggressive. Also love it when players have 10 pitch at-bats. And Vladdy's able to do both of those things. And Cavan's someone that would really complement some of our lineup, sometimes based on who we're facing, because of the ability to really hone in and be patient.
“Sometimes based on who we’re facing” is doing a lot of work there. Not sure the guy who can’t hit high velocity is the late inning solution!
On Nate Pearson
Excited about how he finished the year, excited about him building up again, and we'll see. We'll see how spring training goes, and we'll see how the start of the year goes, but hopefully he's someone that is in extended outings and giving — whether that be Triple-A or the major leagues — us the impact of someone that can punch people out and pitch deeper and deeper into games.
Arden reported on this earlier in the week for Sportsnet, but it’s worth going over because, uh… sorry?… Triple-A?
I mean, obviously teams generally don’t like publicly handing jobs to anybody, and I suppose there’s a chance that they’ll feel good enough about Pearson as a starter at the end of spring that they want to keep him doing that even though they don’t have a rotation spot for him, but it really feels like big league starter or hybrid bullpen weapon really seem like the two likeliest outcomes here by far.
Then again, I suppose assuming Pearson will show up throwing strikes is maybe a bit of a leap.
Lastly, on Gunnar Hoglund
We were so excited that he got to us. As you learned after the fact he almost didn't. We learned that a great deal, that there was a very good chance he wasn't going to get there. The ball bounced the right way for us and very excited to have added him to the organization. I think his progress has been great. He's been extremely diligent coming off the UCL procedure. He's been in our facility almost around the clock, he lives nearby, so that's a huge benefit for us and for him. Love the person, the intelligence, his passion for pitching. Really, really phenomenal athlete that, after he gets healthy it'll be interesting. Someone who has the ability to move quickly.
Atkins went on to add that Hoglund will “have a pretty regular season this upcoming year,” which is interesting because his Tommy John surgery wasn’t until May of last year, and recovery usually takes a year or more. But it’s at least good to hear that he seems to be doing well.
As for how quickly Atkins’ notion of quickly might be, Alek Manoah got to the big leagues as a starter about as quickly as possible for a prospect, and he had just one season between his draft year (2019) and his big league debut (2021). I wouldn't want to put that kind of a timeline on anyone, but if Hoglund stays healthy he could become an option at some point in 2023.
Something incredible about the fact that he's still maybe two years away in the best case scenario: for three months from this December 17th until March 16th, 2022, both Hoglund and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be 22-year-olds. Vlad, man. That’s a franchise player right there.
To me the agents saying there will be a lockout is pure spin doctoring on their part. Naturally it suits the position of an agent to put pressure on the bargaining process.