Atkins Speaks!: Trade Dudline!

On an underwhelming deadline, the impact of Bo's injury, Paul DeJong, Vlad, Bisons IFs, RISP, DFA'd "sluggers," turning the corner, Jordan Hicks, Génesis Cabrera, Chad Green, Hyun Jin Ryu, and more!

I listened to almost three hours of Blair & Barker for this? Ugh. Less than 15 minutes after the trade deadline passed at 6 PM ET, Spotsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweeted the words nobody was waiting to hear: the Blue Jays didn’t have any late moves to announce.

Their deadline involved acquiring three players from the St. Louis Cardinals, one of whom is really good. Jordan Hicks is a genuine impact addition to an already very good bullpen, and that’s not nothing. Génesis Cabrera has started his Blue Jays career well and fills a role as a second bullpen lefty. Paul DeJong will be a very good defensive shortstop for however long Bo Bichette ends up being out, and can occasionally contribute with the bat.

Taken individually, there’s really nothing to dislike here. Taken as a whole, however, and it’s an underwhelming haul for a club that has struggled to convert baserunners into runs, struggled against left-handed pitching, and struggled to produce the kinds of big innings needed to give themselves a few more laughers.

Every game seems to rest on the thinnest of margins for this team, and even though there is certainly enough offensive talent here to avoid that much more often that they have so far, it’s yet to materialize for guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (119 wRC+), George Springer (96), Alejandro Kirk (98), and Daulton Varsho (75). On this date one year ago, Bo Bichette had a 105 wRC+, and he finished at 129, so it's not like it's impossible for guys turn things around in a big way over a couple of short months. But Jays fans have been left scratching their heads as to why GM Ross Atkins has left it entirely up to his existing roster to right things, rather than giving them a little additional external help. Especially after signalling with the Hicks move that they might be willing to really go for it in a strong way, leveraging a modest bit of future to help them in the present — and also after some big statements about their deadline aims less than two weeks ago.

Not so. And, unfortunately, it kind of makes you wonder if part of the reason was that the injury to Bo Bichette is a bigger deal than they’re initially letting on.

Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet made mention of this on Tuesday’s telecast when speaking DeJong’s expected role:

“I do think you’re going to see quite a bit of him at short going forward for the Blue Jays. Spoke to someone today who said that Bo Bichette could be out for a matter of weeks with that patella issue, that inflammation in his right knee. The Blue Jays still working through that. But the fact that they moved to get DeJong early in the day today suggests that they have some playing time for him going forward.”

Atkins, when he spoke to reporters earlier in the day, was not quite as forthcoming. (Shocking, I know!)

What, exactly, did the GM say about his injured shortstop? About his new one? And about the rest of his underwhelming deadline? I’ll tell you! Sportsnet 590 broadcast Atkins’ comments live and in full starting around 6:45 PM ET, and I’ve transcribed them below.

It’s time for Atkins Speaks!

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Before we get started, you don’t have to take my word about any of what Atkins said. You can simply listen for yourself. Here is the nearly seven minute scrum:

Bo Bichette/Paul DeJong

On the Bo injury in general…

Obviously any time one of your best players has an injury it's a disappointment. We are encouraged by the news after the fact. When you see someone in pain there's obviously concern on many levels, and then the more you learn, the more at peace we've become. But it is a big hit to us, hence the [DeJong] acquisition. Very optimistic that he'll be helping our team again.

If it wasn’t clear from the start that DeJong’s addition was related to Bo’s injury — and, based on what I wrote at the time, it wasn’t — Atkins made it absolutely undeniable here. But what I found most concerning in this statement was the next sentence. They’re merely “optimistic” that Bo will be back with the club before the end of the season? Not… I don’t know… certain???

Maybe this is just Ross being Ross and not being willing to speak in any sort of absolute. But the earlier stuff we’d heard about the MRI results being a “best case scenario,” and the fact that Bo hasn’t been placed on the IL, doesn’t seem to jibe with what feels both from Atkins and from Arden as a longer-term prognosis. Not ideal.

Were you looking at DeJong before?

He's an interesting fit for us without the injury. I think he's hit left-handers relatively well. Very good defender that complements our organization and depth, has great experiences. And I think it heightened the need with Bo's injury.

Well now it’s even clearer. DeJong was a response to Bo’s injury. Would the Jays have only added Hicks and Cabrera otherwise? Did they rein in their plans to add more because their don’t project their playoff odds to be as nearly as sturdy with their best player set to be out for a while?

I don’t think I want to know the answer to either of these questions.

Will Bo require more testing before an IL stint?

I think time is critical with any injury. The fact that we're taking it, I think, is a good sign for him. It's not just a clear cut case. There is inflammation in the patellar tendon, where we've had experiences with that with other players. Learning more today was exceptionally important to us before we just jumped to an IL.

I mean, I suppose it’s nice to think that an IL stint isn’t such an obvious conclusion, but at this point I’d be kind of surprised if he avoided it.

Keep in mind, I'm in no way qualified to speculate on a medical issue like that, so take my view for what incredibly little it's worth. But there's still inflammation? They traded for another shortstop? Arden heard it could be weeks?

Not feeling great here.

When Vladimir Guerrero Jr. strained his patellar tendon as Double-A prospect back in June 2018 — possibly the "other players" Ross was referring to — he left a game on 6th of that month and didn't return to action until July 13th. Now, different people can have different timetables, and we haven't heard the word "strain" in relation to Bo yet. It's also worth noting that Vlad waited until the other side of the All-Star break to return, as he wasn't being rushed into a playoff race. But the Jays' behaviour on deadline day would make some sense if this was more of the kind of scenario Bo was looking at than the rosier things they were saying prior to the deadline.

Were the club options in DeJong’s contract part of the appeal?

Any time the flexibility is there in our hands is attractive.

I mean… as a generalization that’s probably true. But come on.

The Jays can keep DeJong next season for $12.5 million ($2 million buyout), and for the year after that for $15 million ($1 million buyout). He may currently sit more than a win better than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on FanGraphs’ WAR leaderboard (note: ooooof), but this is a backup shortstop on a good team. I have to believe that a bunch of the cash the Cardinals sent the Jays’ way as part of this deal is already earmarked for the buyout.

How will DeJong fit in with respect to playing time/platoons?

We'll see. We'll let our staff make that decision, and obviously we'll do our part to support them in any way we can to help them make those decisions. I think there's different ways to think about platoons in today's game, whether they be starting pitcher-based, right-handed swing plane-based, and different opportunities that aren't as straightforward and a little bit more nuanced.

Sure. Whatever. Ugh!

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The deadline

How do you feel about what you've accomplished?

Obviously feel like we made our team better. Just met a day ago with the acquisitions that have occurred, and then adding to them today. Feel like we've continued to add depth and talent to the organization, and excited about where we are.

Well, obviously he’s going to say a thing like that. And Hicks really is an impact talent, no matter how poorly his Blue Jays debut went on Tuesday!

Were there many other opportunities as the afternoon unfolded?

Smaller. Not really a lot of significant ones. Obviously there weren't a ton of players traded, with a lot more (teams) in it. A lot of the teams that speculated on potentially moving players didn't. Some of the players that were rumoured to be coming our way, or even available, didn't seem to be as available to us. So, most of the deals today that were available to us were smaller in nature and more roster management.

Now this is interesting, I think. It’s impossible to say the degree to which it’s true, but the Jays were hardly the only team whose fan base felt like they hadn’t done enough on deadline day. And it’s not like there were a ton of hitters moving elsewhere that you feel the Jays had to have tried better to get. Tommy Pham? Sure. Jake Burger? Maybe??? Other than that there wasn’t a ton of players of interest. Tim Anderson, Teoscar Hernández, Cody Bellinger, Lane Thomas — a bunch of guys we thought were targets didn’t move anywhere.

This isn’t to absolve Atkins entirely. It shouldn’t have been impossible to make a deal that one of those players’ teams would have taken. But it’s worth noting — and perhaps a sad commentary on MLB teams’ willingness to simply hug their prospects and occupy the mushy middle here in the expanded-playoff era — that nobody else went out and got those guys either. Even some of the teams that did “go for it” didn’t go exceptionally hard. Was the Orioles’ acquisition of Jack Flaherty that much more impactful than the Jays getting Hicks?

In other words, what Ross is saying might not be all that inaccurate a depiction of the market.

Was that surprising or disappointing?

A li— I mean, I wouldn't call it either of those two things. Every market's different, and we learned a great deal about this one in the last 48 hours. Really, maybe a little bit more than that, hence our moving sooner on Hicks. And then the opportunity today with DeJong. Excited about Génesis Cabrera as well. Obviously, with Chad Green coming, Hyun Jin Ryu starting today, feel like our depth is really good. Really excited about Triple-A, and some of the talent and stories that we've had down there, and guys that will be able to support, near-term and long-term.

I'd like to be excited enough about some of those Triple-A bats to think it's no big deal that a bat from outside the organization wasn't brought in to augment the lineup. I certainly do enjoy looking at RHB Davis Schneider's .280/.424/.567 line for Buffalo. I certainly recall that the rationale for someone like him not getting a call-up sooner — like when Jordan Luplow or Nathan Lukes have been on the roster — was that the Jays liked his potential enough to have wanted him to continue getting everyday at-bats in Buffalo rather than sitting on the big league bench. But if the front office really thought he was ready to be a big league difference-maker right now, I'm pretty sure he'd already be here. That makes it hard to see this as anything but post hoc tire-pumping to deflect from the underwhelming deadline — exactly like bringing up Green and Ryu.

(Nice to see Ryu back on the hill again here on Tuesday, though. Now let’s never talk about that game again.)

A couple weeks ago you said you wanted a big, right-handed bat. Do you feel like you got everything you needed?

I do. I don't think I used the word "big," because I don't know how readily available those were. And they ended up not being. Some Role 4 types, guys that are nearing everyday potential, were available. But the guys that would be the quote-unquote "bigger bats" weren't necessarily available, or as readily available as many assumed or implied.

Ross is correct that he didn’t say “big” when talking about offensive additions with reporters two weeks ago. He said, “Right now, as things stand today there might be a slight lean towards a really accomplished right-handed bat.”

Now, to be far, he made it clear that he felt there were other ways to improve the team, and that he was hopeful of being able to do it without subtracting anyone (presumably excluding Jordan Luplow). But I think at the time seemed more or less aligned with the opinion most fans held, and had probably held since before spring training: this team is short at least one right-handed bat.

Are you looking at those Triple-A guys you mentioned as injury replacements, or can they play their way into big league roles?

Don't want to go in, player-by-player, down there and talk about them specifically, but I do feel like, A) to answer the first question on replacement, absolutely. And there are a couple that we could think about different alignments here and need to do some more work on that with our major league staff.

Call them up!

Have you seen enough in the offence to think runs will start coming more?

I do. I think there's been, since the All-Star break, really good at-bats. I think we've been pushing starters — stressing them sooner in games. We've put ourselves in every game that we've been in, and just like like [Monday] night, that ball doesn't fall into [Austin Hays’] glove and kicks elsewhere we would have been in a better spot to win that game.

But I do feel good about our offence. I feel like there's still some upside in it, which is a good feeling to have. There's also a really good track record that suggests that upside is coming.

On one hand my view is that it’s absolutely ridiculous to think that certain guys who otherwise hit well just can’t hit with RISP or, worse yet, just can’t hit with RISP this year. And I sure as hell don’t need to hear someone banging on about it all afternoon on the radio *COUGH*. But on the other hand, I’d also like to start seeing some more evidence to the contrary from this team!

The Jays’ RISP woes have been maddeningly durable since the season’s second month. By monthly wRC+ with RISP the Jays season has looked like this:

March/April: 105
May: 87
June: 77
July: 81

It’s kind of a reason why changing up the lineup by adding another strong, right-handed bat seemed so appealing!

Do you have any interest in recently DFA’d veteran power bats? (Meaning: Trey Mancini and Nelson Cruz)

I think we like our internal options more than some of the DFA'd options that we've looked at, because we were talking about them before they were designated. But we'll obviously be open-minded and continue to do our work.

Oh, so you were looking at big, right-handed bats before???

What does it take for an offence to turn the corner?

It's interesting. We have a really good projected offence, and we have good performing offence, I think it's just not closed the gap on what its overall potential is. And I'm confident that it will. I feel so good about the opportunities for Vladdy and George to be just frontline offensive players, that they have been for most of their careers. And if you look at them closely they still are. A lot of it is just run-scoring. We've talked a lot about runners in scoring position, and there is something to that, it's not just luck, but I feel so good about the preparation, I feel so good about the work, and I feel so good about where these players have been and know that they're going to continue to do what they've been doing, and that will result in more runs scored.

Well it looks like we don’t have much of a choice but hope for better from this group, do we? Fingers crossed!

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