Blue Jays prospect stock watch — 2023 edition!

Looking back at the season that was for 15 of the Blue Jays' most important pieces of trade bait. Er... I mean prospects! Plus brief notes on 14 others!

The World Series ended on Saturday night with a 4-1 Houston victory over Philadelphia. Congratulations to Dusty Baker and literally no one else who is a part of the 2022 World Series champion Astros!

Now, officially, the offseason is upon us. And you know what that means: transactions!

The floodgates haven’t opened just yet, but before long we’ll all be hanging off every rumour, every hollow Jon Morosi tweet, every fake account claiming to have inside information. And while the Blue Jays are not necessarily going to be out there actively looking to deal away prospects, the reality of the trade market — which is the avenue the Blue Jays may look to most in order to improve their big league roster, especially if they’re concerned about going over the competitive balance tax threshold — means that some of the club’s most valuable youngsters may be on their way out.

Which prospects are too good to deal? Which ones can play a part in Toronto sooner rather than later? Which need to be moved before their value collapses?

To answer these questions, we need to take stock of where the various players in the system are at. And while I’m certainly not qualified to do that, I did it anyway!

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Before we take our look at which of the Jays’ best prospects saw their stock rise in 2022, which ones held steady, and which saw their stock as prospects drop, a few notes on the concept here.

• I’m not a scout and I’m not a prospect insider. I don’t talk to Gil Kim, Joe Sclafani, or others on the player development side of the Jays organization. So what I’m talking about here is really just my perception of the direction a player’s stock is trending based on his numbers and whatever publicly available reports on him are out there. Really it’s just a way to reflect on their seasons without making this an alphabetical list, or one where I try to rank anybody — something I’d be even less qualified to do!

• Further to that, particularly when it comes to players I have on the “stock down” list, it’s important to keep in mind that there are developmental things guys at these levels are often working on — swing mechanics, specific pitches, etc. — which may lead to rough looking numbers on the page but a season the club would deem a success regardless.

• The players discussed below are more or less the guys who appear on the Jays’ top 30 list at MLB Pipeline, plus a few notable others, and minus most 2022 draftees, recent international signings with little data to consider, and the odd one where the thought of writing a couple paragraphs about him made my eyes glaze over. All told we’ll be looking at 29 players.

• The ages I’ve listed are as of today’s date. The positions listed are the primary ones they played in 2022 (or their most recent healthy season). And the teams listed represent the highest level of the minors they have reached.

Now, on to the prospects…

Stock Up

Ricky Tiedemann (20), LHP, Double-A New Hampshire
We’ll start with an easy one, as Ricky Tiedemann didn’t just have the biggest breakout in the Jays system in 2022, his breakout was one of the biggest in the minors.

It's really a more remarkable story than I think people realize.

Tiedemann went undrafted as a high-schooler in the five-round 2020 draft, changed his plans to go to San Diego State and instead too the JuCo route. He re-entered the draft in 2021 after a year at Golden West College and was taken in the third round by the Jays as a starter who, per MLB Pipeline's 2021 list, sat "in the low-90s and will bump 93-94 at times."

There was projection there, but not even the Jays themselves could have seen just how much improvement would come or how quickly — if they did, they wouldn't have waited to take him in the third round.

Tiedemann didn't pitch competitively as a pro in his draft year, but clearly he’d been working on things. He began 2022 sitting 95-96 from the left side, with the ability to touch higher, and ended up dominating across three levels and rising all the way to Double-A:

Dunedin: 49 Ks to 13 BBs in 30 IP with a 1.80 ERA

Vancouver: 54 Ks to 12 BBs in 37 2/3 IP with a 2.39 ERA

New Hampshire: 14 Ks to 4 BBs in 11 IP with a 2.45 ERA

Across the three levels combined, his ERA was 2.17, his WHIP was 0.864, and he struck out 13.4 batters per nine innings. Yes, the innings total he reached (78 2/3) was low, and means he's not going to be allowed to jump into a big league rotation and pitch five or more innings every fifth day just yet, and the 38 innings he logged at Golden West in 2021 don't help much in that regard. This isn't a situation like with Alek Manoah, who had throw 125 innings between West Virginia and Vancouver in 2019, plus whatever he was able to accomplish at the alt-site in 2020, which allowed him to be essentially set loose last season. Tiedemann's 2023 is still going to be a very important development year for him. But he's as exciting as they come.

Yosver Zulueta (24), RHP, Triple-A Buffalo
Zulueta wasn't exactly off the radar at this time a year ago — I remember TSN's Scott Mitchell writing about the Jays' mysterious Cuban prospect with the big arm as far back as early 2021 — but he’d been on the mound so little that it was hard to know what to make of him. The Jays had acquired him just before the end of the 2019 international signing period, using extra bonus pool money acquired from the trades of Kendrys Morales and Dwight Smith Jr., knowing that he would need Tommy John surgery. His recovery lasted into the pandemic season of 2020, which limited the amount anyone was able to see him. Then, three pitches into his 2021 season, he tore a ligament in his knee that cost him the entire year.

He was finally able to begin his ascent through the minors in 2022, and did a great job of making up for lost time. Across four levels, he struck out 84 batters in 55 2/3 innings, pitching to a 3.72 ERA and putting himself in position to potentially help the Jays’ big league bullpen down the stretch. He missed a month with knee and shoulder soreness beginning in early August, which basically put an end to that idea, but he did ultimately reach Triple-A and is clearly highly valued by the Jays.

It wasn’t a perfect year for Zulueta, who walked 18 batters in 20 innings at Double- and Triple-A, but the velocity was there, the swing-and-miss was there, he kept the ball in the ballpark (just two home runs allowed all season), he’ll start 2023 just a step or two away from the majors, and the team still sees him as a potential starter. You can’t ask for much more from a guy who basically hadn’t pitched for three years.

Sem Robberse (21), RHP, Double-A New Hampshire
The Jays’ young Dutchman doesn't have eye-popping velocity or strikeout numbers, but makes up for it with great, repeatable mechanics, the ability to locate, and a very promising arsenal of secondary pitches. It's an impressive profile, particularly for a kid from Europe.

Robberse was signed around the same time as Zulueta, at the end of the 2019 period, using the same extra bonus pool money obtained from the Morales and Smith Jr. deals. He's been less injured, however, meaning that he's been able to build a much stronger foundation of innings, reaching 111 1/3 this year, the final 24 2/3 of which were with Double-A New Hampshire. That made him one of just six players in their age-20 season or younger to reach the 20 inning mark in the Eastern League — another impressive feat for kid out of Europe.

Robberse's Double-A experience wasn't without bumps. For example, his strikeout rate dipped to 18.3% (6.9 K/9) once he made the jump, and he allowed four home runs in those 24 2/3 innings, leading to a 5.44 FIP during the spell. But his ERA was tidy, and he's given himself a great platform to build off of in the coming years. He'll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft a year from now, and with a season ahead of him that will likely begin at Double-A, then ideally take him to Buffalo eventually, he's on track to be a guy the Jays could potentially use at some point in 2024.

Once more of a project, he’s now a real prospect.

Hayden Juenger (22), RHP, Triple-A Buffalo
Juenger wasn't among the Jays' top 30 prospects according to MLB Pipeline's final 2021 iteration of their list. Today he sits at number seven. In farm director Joe Sclafani's recent three-part interview with D.M. Fox, he called Juenger a "bulldog," adding that the Jays "really see him as an option for the big club going into the next season."

That's impressive stuff for a sixth-round pick from 2021 who entered this season with just 20 High-A innings on his minor league resume. Granted, there's a difference between being an option for the big league club and being a key prospect, but it’s been an impressive ascent regardless.

Juenger has a really interesting arm, throwing a mid-90s fastball with a good slider and a work-in-progress changeup, but he's a smaller pitcher, and not a guy the Jays seem comfortable letting pitch terribly deep into games just yet. He reached four innings in a game four times this season, the last of which was in June — though, according to Pipeline, keeping him to lower pitch counts helped his stuff play up. He was a reliever at Missouri State and may ultimately just continue in that sort of a hybrid role in the majors. Though relievers aren’t the most exciting of prospects, anyone who has watched the Blue Jays’ bullpen over the last couple years knows that good ones, especially of the multi-inning variety that they haven’t really had, can certainly be valuable.

Juenger’s stats don't exactly jump off the page the way they did in Vancouver in 2021. In that stint he struck out 34 on 20 innings, while walking only four and posting a WHIP of 0.750. Across two levels this year he had “only” a 3.76 ERA with 100 Ks to 37 BBs in 88 2/3 innings. But the arrows on him are definitely pointing up.

Gabriel Martinez (20), RF, High-A Vancouver
The Jays' other Gabby — and other Martinez — had a breakout season in 2022, taking a step forward in terms of power while maintaining solid strikeout and walk rates and reaching High-A Vancouver. His 132 wRC+ was the best among any player age-21 or younger with at least 250 plate appearances in the Florida State League this year, despite the fact that he was 19 until the end of July. He eventually moved up to High-A Vancouver, where he was one of just three age-19 players to reach 100 PA, and was even better, slashing .324/.381/.490 and ranking in the league's overall top 10 with a 142 wRC+.

He looks like he'll be a corner outfielder in the future, and won't provide much value with his legs, but if the bat continues to impress as he moves up the ladder, that's not going to matter. Pipeline notes that he maxed out at an exit velocity 108.8 this season, which was higher already than the max EVs produced this season by Blue Jays big leaguers like Cavan Biggio, Whit Merrifield, and Santiago Espinal.

Pipeline also has him as the Jays' number eight prospect currently, despite not being among the top 30 a year ago.

He'll be Rule-5-eligible this winter if he's not added to the 40-man, and while there's a chance the Jays could leave him off and hope that he's simply too far away from the majors for another team to bite, that might too much of a risk. Martinez should reach Double-A in 2023, if he doesn't just straight-up start there, which could make him an interesting option in 2024 when corner OFs Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will potentially be gone. Development isn't always linear like that, of course, but he's definitely one to watch.

Addison Barger (22), 3B, Triple-A Buffalo
For a long time, the assumption among Jays fans — and maybe even the front office — was that the club’s third baseman of the future was going to be either Orelvis Martinez or Jordan Groshans. The addition of Matt Chapman last winter, who will be a free agent at the end of 2023, did little to dissuade anyone from that being the case. And yet here’s Barger, who still mostly plays short, but should eventually be a third baseman thanks to his great arm, and who went from High-A to Triple-A this season.

Barger's bat was the reason for his ascent, slashing .308/.378/.555 across three levels, and not missing a beat as he advanced. His Triple-A sample is small, as he had just 36 plate appearances in Buffalo, but he blasted three homers there, going 11-for-31 with five walks (.355/.444/.677). All that happened as he dropped his strikeout rate from 32.8% at Single-A in 2021, when he was more of a three true outcomes hitter, to 24.4% this season. Maybe even more impressively, his K-rate went down at each stop.

A 2018 sixth-round pick out of high school in the Tampa area, Barger actually grew up in Washington state, drawing inspiration from Ichiro as a kid, particularly when it came to the pronounced leg kick the future Hall-of-Famer employed earlier in his career. Barger is a far different hitter though, as he explained to David Laurila in a recent feature at FanGraphs.

“My goal is to hit the ball over the wall. I want to do damage," he explained. "If it’s to right field, it’s to right field, and if it’s to left field, it’s to left field. But when I’m having success, I’m usually pulling a lot of balls.”

A power-hitting left-handed batter could be just what the doctor ordered for these Blue Jays, and though Barger is at least a half-year away, he'll likely get a chance in Buffalo this spring to show its a job he can make his own — and he's a strong candidate to be the prospect Jays fans are most adamant about bringing north at the end of spring training. Not bad for a guy who hit just .249 with a .334 on-base for Dunedin in 2021.

Spencer Horwitz (24), LF, Triple-A Buffalo
Suckers they be sayin' they can strike out Spencer Horwitz.

Or, OK, truth be told, Horwitz has merely been good when it comes to avoiding strikeouts at the upper levels of the minors, not elite. Still, the former 24th round pick out of something called Radford University, has put himself on the prospect map better than the vast majority of the 716 players selected ahead of him back in 2019. Horwitz wasn't among Pipeline's top 30 Jays prospects a year ago, nor Eric Longenhagen's Jays top 34 at FanGraphs, but now checks in at number 13, and was described by Longenhagen in late July as "a flush lefty-hitting in-house replacement for (Raimel) Tapia."

Granted, Horwitz's production dropped off a little bit after he moved up to Buffalo for his final 44 games of the year (.246/.361/.363), but it was still a successful season for him, slashing .275/.391/.452 across Double- and Triple-A. He'll get more run in Buffalo, and as another of the Jays' Rule-5-eligible guys, he will — provided he isn't part of a trade — surely be added this winter, putting him just a step away from the majors.

That’s a real success story for a guy who came into the year with just four games of experience above High-A.

Dasan Brown (21), CF, High-A Vancouver
It was clear from the day that the Jays drafted the Oakville native in the third round of the 2019 draft that Brown was going to be a project, and he showed why in 2021. Over 226 plate appearances in Single-A, Brown slashed just .212/.310/.323 while striking out 32.7% of the time last year.

Things took a turn for the better this year, as he cut his K-rate, continued to have value on the bases (22 SB) and to play above average centre field, and slashed .283/.383/.420 across two levels, finishing the year at High-A.

Brown’s success over 40 games after being moved up to Vancouver really stands out, as he slashed .298/.392/.411. Of 77 batters to reach 150 plate appearances in the Northwest League, Brown's 130 wRC+ ranked 13th, and was tops among players at age-21 or below (Brown was in his age-20 season). And the age-20 player ranked just behind him? Shortstop Noelvi Marte, who produced a 129 wRC+ over 349 PA before he was sent from the Mariners to the Reds in the Luis Castillo deal.

Now, let's be careful not to overstate this here. For one thing, minor league wRC+ is league-adjusted, not park adjusted, so it's not quite as reliable as major league data. For two, and more importantly, Marte did it for longer, has a better track record, is much more highly regarded, and was 22 points better by OPS. Let’s also keep in mind that the Northwest League only has six teams in it, so certain rankings may not be as impressive as they seem.

But still, for us to even have to think about any of that stuff indicates how far Brown has come. If the bat continues to play, he could be a fun one.

Others of note…
Tanner Morris, 25, is a bat-first left-hitting prospect who didn't do much after a move up to Triple-A (though he somehow managed 30 walks to 30 strikeouts in 31 games), but early in the season was noticeably better over 43 games in New Hampshire (152 wRC+) than he had been the previous year at a lower level in Vancouver (115). • Damiano Palmegiani, 22, went to high school in Vauxhall, Alberta, and was a 14th round pick of the Jays out of Southern Nevada in the 2021 draft. A bat-first right-hander, he moved beyond the complex league this year, smacking 24 home runs across two levels and ending up in High-A Vancouver, where his production was less than it had been in Dunedin, though he held his own. • Rainer Nunez, 21, is a corner infield prospect, so his bat will likely have to carry him, and after taking some time to get going — he made his pro debut way back in 2018 in the Dominican Summer League, but didn't get out of complex ball for the first time until a six-game stint last season — it might. This year he started at Dunedin, where he won the Florida State League batting title (.299) then moved up for 27 games at Vancouver where he was even better: .321/.379/.491. • Davis Schneider, 23, was a 28th round pick way back in 2017 who finally got out of short-season ball last season, then this year hit well enough to rise from Vancouver up to Buffalo, maintaining high walk rates while cutting his strikeout rates in the process. Double-A was his most successful level, where he slashed .283/.368/.476 while primarily playing second base (though he also saw time in left field). • Another multi-level riser, Jimmy Robbins, 24, struck out 26 in 17 1/3 innings for Dunedin, then 46 in 35 1/3 innings for Vancouver. As an encore, the 2019 20th-rounder finished up with 26 Ks in 23 2/3 innings for New Hampshire, where he pitched to a 1.52 ERA and walked only six while working mostly as a starter. He's put himself on the radar, and very possibly soon on the Jays' 40-man. • Brandon Eisert, 24, was an 18th-round pick in 2019 out of Oregon State, but didn't make his pro debut until last year, when he struck out 82 in 63 1/3 innings across three levels. This year was spent entirely in Buffalo, where, working mostly as a multi-inning reliever, he struck out 77 over 60 2/3 innings while walking only 15 and putting up a 3.41 ERA.

Stock Holding Steady

Gabriel Moreno (22), C, Toronto Blue Jays
Moreno has probably seen the last of the minor leagues at this point, or he at least should have. And though he didn’t have nearly as loud a season at the plate in 2022 as he did the year before, he didn't have to. Moreno fits into the "stock holding steady" group, for me, for the simple reason that his stock didn't go down, and there was really no way for it to go up.

While it's true that his power production took a bit of a dip in 2022, I don't think there's any reason to consider that a worry. For one, the eight home runs he hit over just 145 Double-A plate appearances in 2021 were a bit of an outlier to begin with, as he's a guy who is expected to use his elite bat-to-ball skills to hit it with authority, but by no means projects as a slugger. For two, the thumb fracture that cost him three months in mid-2021 may have had lingering effects, which can certainly show up in the form of a dip in power.

Either way, he had an incredibly solid year — .315/.386/.420 at Buffalo while also holding his own in limited action in Toronto — that shouldn’t have made anyone think his breakout 2021 was a fluke. He’s legit.

Adrian Pinto (20), SS/CF, Single-A Dunedin
Pinto is maybe a weird choice for a piece like this, because he didn't even join the organization until last spring, when he was part of the trade that sent Raimel Tapia to the Jays for Randal Grichuk. But while he was somewhat unheralded at the time of his arrival, except among those who really pay attention to this stuff, he was coming off a year where he’d put up some very impressive Dominican Summer League numbers in the Rockies organization, where he was the named MVP.

It’s sometimes hard to know what to make of a player’s DSL stats, but what Pinto had done was pretty impressive on the surface: a slash line of .360/.486/.543 with 41 stolen bases and nearly twice as many walks (38) as strikeouts (18).

In 2022 he was somewhat aggressively assigned to the Florida State League and ended up one of the toughest hitters there to strike out, while also producing a 12.4% walk rate and stealing 18 bases. He also reportedly held his own defensively at the higher level, continuing to see time at shortstop, though, as Pipeline tells us, "the Jays like his chances of being a really good defensive second baseman or even center fielder."

Pinto turned 20 in September, so he’s still a long way away, though, as a signing out of Venezuela back in 2019, he’ll be Rule-5-eligible a year from now. I can only guess about what’s next for him, but perhaps that means he won’t get pushed as aggressively, with the Jays aiming to keep him out of the upper minors in order to decrease the likelihood that another organization selects him. Or maybe they don’t need to think about this one quite so hard and can simply see where his bat takes him.

Whatever the case, though he didn’t repeat his DSL numbers, he didn’t take a step backwards either, and still has a chance to end up the most important player exchanged in the Tapia-Grichuk deal.

Otto López (24), SS/2B/CF, Toronto Blue Jays
López had another solid season at the plate in Triple-A, raising his wRC+ to 114 from the 102 mark he posted in 43 games after getting promoted to Buffalo from New Hampshire in 2021. His 10.5% walk rate, in particular, was impressive. He chipped in on the bases with 14 steals in 91 games. He also saw some time in the big leagues, managing to go 6-for-10 with a walk, though all of the hits were singles.

There are positives here, to be sure. Unfortunately, there are three things working against López and his status among the Jays' group of prospects. One, he's a good contact hitter who has done a good job of controlling the zone, but his bat simply isn't very special. Two, while he has defensive versatility, he lacks the arm strength to really play at shortstop or third base, which puts more of an onus on the bat to make him a viable big leaguer. And three, he's running out of time, as he will enter the 2023 season with just one minor league option year remaining.

López did well enough in 2022 that I couldn't list him as a stock down guy, but he spun his wheels a bit while someone like Barger — who not only can play 3B, but hits from the left side with power as well — likely leaped ahead of him on the long-term depth chart. In my view he fits the profile of a trade candidate at this point.

Others of note…
Dahian Santos, 19, got four late-season starts in Vancouver, making him one of just two age-19 players to reach 10 innings in the Northwest League (the other being Tiedemann). It wasn't exactly a successful spell — 15 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, albeit with 22 strikeouts — and on average he walked a batter every other inning across two levels this year. But the breaking ball and the strikeout totals are very impressive, and maybe I'm being too harsh on him because of the High-A stint. Had he only pitched in Dunedin, where he produced a 3.44 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and struck out 120 in 73.1 innings, I'd probably have him in the category above. • Switch-hitting infielder Estiven Machado, 20, was fairly highly regarded as an amateur, but lost a ton of reps to the pandemic in 2020 and injury in 2021. He managed to get into 90 games in 2022, which is great news. Unfortunately, the numbers he produced were pretty pedestrian. A line of .263/.342/.345 at High-A Dunedin, with walk and strikeout rates of 10.0% and 25.5% respectively. Meh. • Manuel Beltre, 18, only got into five games above the complex league, so it's hard to really judge his season. He did very well in 22 plate appearances at High-A, where he was one of of just ten 18-year-olds to reach even 10 PA, and is highly regarded for his approach and bat-to-ball skills, as well as his his makeup. But the FCL numbers don't leap off the page, and there's really not a lot to go on to call his stock up or down. He's one to watch in 2023, though. • Trent Palmer, 23, got the walk problems that looked like a real concern for him in 2021 under control this season, but statistically didn't do much to stand out — good or bad. He struck out 36 in 23 2/3 innings at Double-A, albeit as a 23-year-old, but was a bit homer prone there. When he moved up to Vancouver the homer problems subsided, but the strikeout rate went down and the walk rate went up. He also managed just 55 1/3 innings on the season. I don't know!

Stock Down

Nate Pearson (26), RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Pearson hasn’t been a prospect for a while now, but he still finds himself on this list because he certainly isn’t a major leaguer yet either. I don’t particularly like piling on, because it bugs me when fans treat a player’s proneness to injury, or inability to make good on massive early-career hype, like it’s some kind of a personal failing, but it can’t be denied that this was yet another lost season for Pearson.

Rather than listing off the litany of ailments that have befallen Pearson over the years, I think we can put it more succinctly:

Pearson made his pro debut as a 20-year-old back in 2017. In August he turned 26. To this point he's only thrown 33 innings in the majors, which is a low total. But what's absolutely mind-boggling is that he's only throw 169 1/3 innings in the minor leagues during that span. (Or 189 2/3, if you want to count his 2018 spell in the Arizona Fall League).

The fact that there was no minor league season in 2020 is a factor in that, as is the fact that his arm was fractured on a comebacker in the second inning of his first start of 2018, causing him to miss all of that year as well. But it's still jaw-dropping, especially when we're talking about a guy who hasn't had arm surgery since getting screws in his elbow back in high school.

That doesn’t mean his arm has been the picture of health. There was elbow tightness that turned out to be a flexor strain in 2020, a shoulder impingement as he also battled groin issues that turned out to be a hernia in 2021, and a lat strain that derailed his comeback from mononucleosis this year. It’s just, if not for all that other stuff his career arc wouldn’t be nearly so atypical.

Anyway, Pearson threw just 15 1/3 minor league innings this year. At the time of this writing he's added to his season total with five in LIDOM with Tigres del Licey. I can’t blame Jays fans for not wanting to hear it, but there’s a chance still that he puts all this behind him and his story ends up having a happy ending. But another lost year makes that outcome even harder to see.

Orelvis Martinez (20), 3B, Double-A New Hampshire
I was tempted to put Martinez in the category above, because the Jays were very aggressive in sending him to Double-A, and as an age-20 player, the youngest in the Double-A Eastern League with at least 300 plate appearances, he managed to hit 30 home runs — a feat accomplished by only one other player under age-22 across the entire minors. Unfortunately, he did so without ever seeming to make the much-needed adjustment to pitchers with better breaking balls, and ended up slashing just .203/.286/.446 for the entire season. Worse still, he didn't show improvement as the year wore on — at least not statistically. Wearing down a bit after passing the 100 game mark for the first time, in August and September he slashed just .184/.299/.344 over 36 games.

There was method to the Jays' madness in being so aggressive with him. Orelvis is a guy they seem to really like, and have for a long time. He was an exceptionally young addition to their alt-site roster in 2020, and he got a lot of run in big league camp this spring. Sclafani told D.M. Fox recently that, though the assignment to Double-A was "debated quite a bit" internally, ultimately "the professionalism and the jumps in maturity gave us the confidence that we (could) send him there, and it (wasn't) going to tank him if he comes out of the chute and struggles."

Sclafani goes on to highlight some positives, but acknowledges that "on paper, it's not ideal."

Thing is, it's not like these are new concerns for Martinez. We always knew that swing-and-miss and pitch recognition were issues. And, ultimately, I couldn't surgarcoat it and say that he held steady. I have a hard time believing his value on the trade market right now is as high as it would have been a year ago.

Alex De Jesus (20), SS, High-A Vancouver
I probably don't need to put De Jesus on this list, as he's a far off switch-hitting power hitter that the Blue Jays took a chance on as part of the Mitch White/Nick Frasso deal (prospect Moises Brito also went from the Jays to the Dodgers in that one). At the time of the trade, Justin Choi of FanGraphs described him thusly: "With his young age and lack of experience against advanced pitching, De Jesus is essentially a lottery ticket: he could one day hit enough home runs as a big leaguer to compensate for his swing-and-miss, or the absence of a tool besides raw power could be his demise. He’s a one-trick pony for now, but it’s a fun trick!"

So, obviously expectations aren’t exactly sky high here. But I think it’s worth noting — mostly because it’s kind of funny, since none of the other things about the White deal have worked out for the Jays so far — how much worse De Jesus was when you compare his pre-trade numbers to his post-trade ones: .282/.376/.421 in the Dodgers organization, .211/.298/.333 with the Jays.

Not ideal!

Leo Jimenez (21), SS, High-A Vancouver
It wasn't the breakout year some expected for Jimenez, who was added to the 40-man last winter despite being just 20 years old and spending the 2021 season in the complex league and with Dunedin. In their defence, it had been quite a season for him. Jimenez is a shortstop prospect who should be able to stick at the position, and last year slashed a ridiculous .315/.517/.381 over 54 High-A games. He walked 51 times to just 35 strikeouts, and while he didn't show much power — which will be the key to his long-term viability as a big league regular — Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs saw enough to rank him the third best Jays prospect heading into this season.

"Jimenez has a special ability to put the bat on the ball, and he's especially adept at getting on top of high fastballs," he wrote. Though he then added, "It is freakish bat-to-ball ability with very little impact."

Fast forward to 2022 and Jimenez doesn't seem all that much closer to the big leagues than he was a year ago. He was only able to get into 69 games for High-A Vancouver this year, and when he did play his numbers dropped precipitously — except, oddly, the power. Jimenez slashed .230/.340/.385 for the Canadians. While his 9.2% walk rate was decent, it was less than half of his 21.1% rate from the year before. Add in an uptick in strikeouts (from 14.5% to 19.7%) and the overall picture isn't great.

Still, there were positives to take from his season. Jimenez had just five plate appearances against pitchers younger than he is, so even just to be at that level is something of an achievement. He also had a BABIP of just .269, suggesting that there was maybe a little bit of bad luck in his outcomes. And his power production, though his slugging percentage was barely different than in 2021, actually took a step forward. He hit six home runs, up from just one, and three triples, up from zero. His ISO went from .065 to .156. Plus, he really seemed to hit his stride in July, when over 18 games he slashed .286/.380/.587, with four of those homers and two of the triples. Unfortunately, his season ended eight games into August.

A true breakout may still be in the cards for Jimenez, particularly if he's able to have a fully healthy season in 2023, but there's no denying that he won't be going into next season as highly touted. It's safe to say he won't be ranked nearly as high by FanGraphs on their next list, and he's already dropped from ninth to 16th at Pipeline.

Others of note…
Adam Kloffenstein, 22, the Jays' third-round pick from 2018, seemed to make progress after a tough 2021 season in Vancouver (6.22 ERA), as he went back to the level and over six starts dropped a 3.81 ERA with 30 Ks in 26 innings and a manageable number of walks. Unfortunately, he then went to New Hampshire and struggled again, with 45 walks in 86 innings and a 6.07 ERA. • Once a rising star in the Jays' system because of his "invisiball" and a great three-level run back in 2019, Joey Murray, 26, lost nearly two years of development because of the pandemic in 2020 and injury in 2021. He returned in 2022 to New Hampshire, where he'd pitched very well at the end of his 2019, and not only struggled (7.84 ERA), but was only able to pitch 20 2/3 innings. • Adrian Hernandez, 22, had a rapid rise through the Jays' system in 2021, and in early 2022 looked like a real option for the Jays' bullpen. He's not a high velocity guy, but thanks to a ridiculous changeup managed to strike out 28 batters in 20 innings to start his Triple-A career while pitching to a 1.80 ERA. Then he hit the IL with shoulder soreness for six weeks, and his performance after he returned raised eyebrows for very different reasons. He produced a 7.23 ERA over 18 2/3 post-injury innings, allowing 21 hits and 11 walks (though he managed 25 strikeouts). There's a case to have him in the category above, I suppose, but it really felt like the shine came off at the end there. • The Jays' second round pick in 2020, CJ Van Eyk, 24, was already somewhat polarizing before he went to Vancouver in 2021 and struggled with command and pitched to a 5.83 ERA despite being a 22-year-old with three years at Florida State already under his belt. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September of 2021 and didn't pitch at all in 2022.

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