Deadline Day: Afternoon Snack
On Raisel Iglesias and Noah Syndergaard, Yusei Kikuchi, Ian Happ, Mychal Givens, Carlos Rodón, Josh Staumont, Scott Barlow, Tyler Mahle, Nate Eovaldi, Brandon Drury, Tarik Skubal, and more!
The transactions aren’t exactly flying fast and furious just yet, but there sure is a whole lot being talked about here with less than two hours left to go before the deadline. The Jays have already made their first move, but they don’t appear to be finished.
Here’s what’s out there as of about 5 PM ET here on deadline day…
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Iglesias and Syndergaard
I wrote about this pair of Angels in my lunchtime update, and though nothing concrete has happened with them yet, it certainly does seem like the Jays have interest in both.
I mean, I don’t know how else to take that but to believe that the Jays have been talking to the Angels about Syndergaard and Iglesias.
We talked in the previous post about where Syndergaard is at as a pitcher here in 2022, so let's focus here a bit on Iglesias. Statcast says his second best comp based on velocity and movement this year is 2015 A.J. Burnett, so already I am very much on board.
Interestingly, this year he's almost doubled his sinker usage over the previous three years, up to 18%. Earlier in his career the sinker had been his primary fastball, but since 2019 he's relied much more on his four-seamer. Its usage has steadily decreased as the sinker's usage has come up. Both of the fastballs, which average 95 mph, are getting hit somewhat hard this year, with the four-seamer having a rougher go with a 52% hard hit rate to the sinker's 36%. However, the sinker gets almost no swing-and-miss, so perhaps it evens out a bit. The slider and changeup are the stars of the show, as far as Statcast is concerned, inducing less hard contact and generating much more swing-and-miss.
Those hard hit rates don't look great, nor does the fact that he's in the bottom of the league when it comes to getting barreled, but don't let that make you think this isn't an elite reliever still.
We’re not seeing 90th percentiles across the board there, but by K-BB% — which may be my personal favourite metric for measuring relief success — Iglesias is the 13th best in the league at 26.7%. The Blue Jays’ top performer in this regard is Yimi Garcia at 19.7%.
He’d be a great addition here. Syndergaard would work very nicely as the kind of mid-tier innings-eater the Jays need (and could maybe be useful in the bullpen in October, too). But I do still wonder about the financials.
Mark Shapiro reportedly hinted during his media availability last week when the Rogers Centre renovations were announced about having money to help the club at the deadline, and this sure would be one way to do it. Taking on money would help the Jays preserve some of their better regarded prospects, too. Frankly, Rogers owes us all this. It’s the least they could do.
Hell, maybe they could do us one better:
OK, that’s too perfect (the Jays can get a depth starter elsewhere), so it will never happen. Let’s just move on…
What’s Happ-ening
Could Happ puns be returning to the Blue Jays universe? Possibly, because the Cubs still haven’t moved outfielder Ian Happ just yet. There are, however, some changes to this situation since last I checked in.
The Dodgers appeared for a moment as they might be spoilers here, as they turned their attention to lefty bats after the Juan Soto/Josh Bell deal between the Nationals and Padres was finally made official. (Eric Hosmer has ended up in Boston somehow. WHO CARES?)
L.A. was reportedly checking in on Happ, but just as quickly as we heard that it was reported that they’ve given Joey Gallo a desperately-needed lifeline out of the Bronx. Glad to see him out of that mess, and I wish him well (next year). I don’t know if the addition of Gallo necessarily takes the Dodgers out of the Happ market, but I’d have to think it makes it less likely.
So the Happ dream remains alive. And with George Springer once again due to start a game from the bench for the Jays tonight in Tampa, maybe there’s even more urgency to add a guy like that.
If they do, David Robertson won’t be coming with him, unfortunately. The top rental relief arm was swooped up by the Phillies this afternoon, meaning that if the Jays go for Happ and a reliever, it’s probably going to be Mychal Givens.
A rental in all but name, Givens has a mutual option (the dollars don’t appear to be public) with a $1.5 million buyout for next season, but likely won’t exercise it because of the strong season he’s had. In 40 2/3 innings the right-hander has struck out 51, and though his 19 walks issued look a little high, it's worth noting that three of those were intentional walks. Plus, even with the free passes, he's been effective enough to pitch to a 2.66 ERA with a 3.83 FIP. Not bad at all. (His K-BB%, for the sake of completeness, is 18.6%).
This could work!
I don’t think the Jays could land Happ and Givens and Syndergaard and Iglesias, but… well… we don’t have a whole lot of time left in which to dream, so let’s just go ahead and dream.
Quickly
The clock’s a-tickin’ so I’ll make this short for now. Here are a few other brief notes, all of which come from the always invaluable MLB Trade Rumors...
• Carlos Rodón, who I also wrote about earlier, is being discussed by the Giants, apparently. Man, he’d be a great add for somebody. However, the Giants are supposedly going to entertain offers for "full value," whatever that means. And, as I've been saying, the vesting option is making things very tricky. I wouldn't be surprised to see him dealt, I guess. But I'd be impressed if a team and the Giants managed to actually agree on how to value him.
• Apparently the market for some of the Royals’ veterans is “heating up.” Reliever Josh Staumont seemed like a great fit at one point, but his season has really gone sideways. Since the start of June he's walked 12 and only struck out eight over 12 innings of work. Not sure I'm into paying very much for that. And with him only due to reach arbitration for the first time this coming winter, I'm not sure I'm selling low if I'm the Royals. But hey, maybe!
• Scott Barlow's strikeouts are down this year, as is his velocity (from 95.4 in 2021 to 93.5), but he's still doing a pretty nice job and his percentile rankings sure do look tasty.
Plus, he'll be heading into Arb2 this winter, so maybe this is a good time for the Royals to cash in before he starts to get a little more expensive. His 17 saves this year aren't a ton, but they'll help drive his price up.
• Tyler Mahle is going to the Twins. He’d have made a nice depth add for the Jays if he’d been vaccinated!
• Boston is apparently listening on Nate Eovaldi, and while I’m not sure the likelihood of a deal between AL East clubs is very strong, the Steve Pearce-Santiago Espinal one worked out rather well for all parties involved once. There are definitely worse ways to help the rotation.
• The stupid Orioles are also selling off pieces, to at least some degree. This sucks for the players left over and the fans, but if they want to decimate their roster before the Jays play them a ton of times over the last two months of the year, I’m very OK with that. The Twins acquired All-Star reliever Jorge López earlier in the day. Very nice move for them. As López is not set to be a free agent until after 2024, I suspect it would have been more difficult for the O’s to justify sending him to the Jays.
• Jake Odorizzi was theoretically a guy the Jays might have had some interest, as the odd man out in Houston’s rotation. Instead he’s gone to Atlanta in exchange for lefty reliever Will Smith. Meh.
• The party is already over in San Diego, I guess. They’ve acquired Brandon Drury from the Reds.
• Lastly, while there are still Tigers bullpen pieces to be had, apparently starter Tarik Skubal is not for sale. Could have been a nice addition. One of those non-Derek Law relievers sure would look good as a consolation prize though. I’m saying.
• We’re down to about an hour left. Stay tuned!!
Don’t forget that Nick and I will be coming your way live at 6:30 PM ET on Callin for our post-deadline edition of Blue Jays Happy Hour!
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