Dear John... (Plus: JBJ???)
In which I revive a one-note conceit from 2007 for some reason, then talk about a minor move.
John! Johnny! John Boy! Johnno! J. Johnny Johnson! Jan! Jahhhhn! What’s up you old fucking so-and-so! Great to see you back where you belong, managing the Blue Jays, John! It’s me — it’s Stoeten!
You know! Stoeten!?!
That Mets trip to Montreal in ‘86? The night in Ybor City when your weird ex-roommate lost his wallet? Whisky shots with Ted Lilly when you almost socked him again? Getting blasted on Adderall and bad tequila at Opryland during the winter meetings? Being tossed from that afterhours joint in Kansas City, 2015, because T2 was on the TV behind the bar and I kept shouting “Come on, man, you can’t leave the desk like that!” every time you got up to rip a piss????
No? Nothing?
Well, it’s good to see you back anyway. You look good, John! Years younger than I remember. So at least you’ve got that going for you, even if your memory sucks worse than the service at the Underground Garage.
I kid, John. I kid. Did you get some work done though, really? I couldn’t blame you if you forget. Memories are funny. We all forget things from time to time. We all get a little confused. It even happens to me.
What’s worrying me though, John, if we can push past the pleasantries here — ho ho ho — is that you’re being weirdly selective about what sticks in your mind lately.
What do I mean by that, you ask? OK, let me explain…
Yusei Kiku— now, now, John! Calm down, big fella! I’ve seen that look in a man’s eye before, and nothing good ever comes of it. It’s a bit of an incendiary name at the moment, I know. I know. I’m sorry for bringing it up, but just listen. Breathe, John. I’m about to praise you here.
The other night you said something about how he’s “grinding” and how his latest tire fire of an outing “was a couple of bad pitches” but “he’s going to get his opportunities” going forward to “hopefully string a few good ones together.” Probably wished you were back home in your kitchen in ol’ San Antone when you had to smilingly spit that out that load, eh John? But you weren’t wrong.
Or, well, you’d know the bit about grinding better than I would, but there wasn’t really anything else you could say there, John. You did well! You remembered. That other guy — uh… what’s his name? — you know who I mean, you were his bench coach! Well, that guy found himself in a world of shit with the players when he got weirdly critical of Kikuchi earlier this year. It’s part of the reason you’re back, even.
And sure, a bunch those types who think saying the most negative thing that comes into their heads is a reasonable substitute for a having a personality will piss and moan about it — bloo bloo how will a team with a 95% chance of making the playoffs survive two weeks without Max “Joel Payamps 2.0” Castillo bloo!!! — but the fact that the options are Kikuchi and no one else isn’t on you. It’s a problem, but it ain’t yours, John. Take the temporary hit and it’ll sort itself out. Smart.
But there was something else you did in this one that’s inspired me to write to you here today, John. A couple things, actually. Because you see, another part of the reason you’re back on that hot seat is because a lot of games really slipped away on that other guy. And you seem to be forgetting two of the most important lessons learned from the first half of this season. And those are that Trevor Richards and Trent Thornton suck.
I know! I know, John. Hear me out here! This is me, John. This is Stoeten. Remember??
Yes, context matters. The bullpen has had a lot of work lately. Sunday’s game went into extras. And you’ve got those damned red, yellow, and green cards you’ve got to follow. I know! But I almost spit out my drink when your guys pulled back a run in the top of the sixth on Monday, then fuckin’ Butters comes bounding out of the ‘pen, John. I almost went Full Baldelli when you got two more in the eighth and then out comes Richards!
Maybe I'm being irrational here. Maybe I’m wrong. I’ve been wrong before. You know that, John. But it feels like this kind of thing happens too much!
Relievers for the Jays in low leverage situations from the fourth through the seventh inning this year have allowed 50 runs — the ninth highest total in the league. The Yankees have allowed 14! The Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Twins are also in the top six (plus the Rangers for some reason)! Sure, this might not be a "real stat" and might not "say anything very meaningful" and could, in fact, be "complete bullshit," but you have a lineup that’s capable of coming back in games — even from some of Kikuchi’s biggest clusterfucks. Hell, your team is 16-6 when José Berríos starts.
I know Richards is exactly the kind of guy the team would look to pick up if he was made available by another club. I know there’s someone over there who clearly, if inex-fucking-plicably, likes Thornton. I know they’re both probably not long for this roster if the likes of Nate Pearson or Julian Merryweather ever get healthy — hah! — or if someone like Yosver Zulueta ever stops walking guys at Double-A. I know you don’t have much to work with right now. I know I just said the team is so on course for the playoffs that it’s probably not worth sweating this kind of stuff too much.
But when Kikuchi gets sent into the game he’s not sitting next to a bunch of guys who could do the job better that day!! None of Adam Cimber, Zach Pop, or David Phelps had pitched on Sunday! No, they’re not perfect, and no you can’t just completely bury Thornton and Richards, and I suppose by my standards they could basically never pitch. But, uh, HOW ABOUT WE TRY THAT?
It’s been the whole damn year.
I honestly wasn’t sure how much of this kind of stuff would change, John. I know the front office has a ton of “collaborative” “input” here. But you’ve still got that “interim” tag on you, my man — rude, frankly, given you previous two stints managing here! You owe it to yourself to give this team a chance to grind out some damn wins like they might have done Monday night, and the combination of being forced to get as much as possible out of Kikuchi then going to the gruesome twosome is a lot to overcome. And seriously demoralizing when it goes exactly — exactly — as expected.
I’m not trying to get you down, John. But damn. You get a miracle win on Sunday after that Merrifield play — you knew then to keep pushing with Romano for two innings in that one, even though he clearly didn’t have his best stuff! — and then we get a white flag like that??
I don’t know whether the same kind of malaise for the other guy ultimately infected the clubhouse the way it already had done for large parts of the fan base, but if those two things were in any way similar, I think it, uh, probably behooves you to push back some more on the load management stuff that probably led to this.
You did well getting Bichette moved back in the lineup. Gausman’s percentage of pitches thrown with the outfield in some kind of a shift was a season-low 4.9% in his last start, and it was at a season second-low of 13.6% in his previous one. Progress!
Well, progress away from progress, but you know what I mean, John! I don’t expect you to run things with an iron fist, but somebody needs to rein in the front office’s impulse to get to cute. And since obviously that’s not possible when it comes to making trade deadline deals for pitching or signing long-term pitcher contracts — Jesus Christ! — it sure as hell would be nice to maybe see a little more of it on the field sometimes.
You’re in a tough place, John. I know. You can’t please everybody. And I guess this isn’t much of a welcome back. Sorry for that, buddy. The team is good. It’ll be fine. It’s just… the whole damn year, man. Seriously.
Anyway, we’ll have to go get some drinks like old times. You get yourself ejected yet? Call me when you do.
Drunkenly yours,
Stoeten
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Jackie… Bradley… Jr.?
The trade deadline may have passed last week, but that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays are done making underwhelming acquisitions, as they announced on Tuesday afternoon that they’ve signed outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr., who was recently released by the Boston Red Sox.
To make room on the 40-man they have designated reliever Matt Peacock for assignment, and to make room on the active roster they’ve optioned Otto Lopez back to the minors.
The last bit is notable, because Bradley arrives at a time in his career where he doesn’t appear to offer a whole lot more than Bradley Zimmer. At least, not in the role that you’d hope he’ll be functioning in.
Bradley has fallen off a cliff, offensively, since an outstanding 55 game run in 2020 that saw him produce a 119 wRC+. Granted, it wasn't a particularly high cliff to begin with. Bradley had been about 10% below league average at the plate from 2017 through 2019, and marks of 35 last season, and 58 this year have now taken his career total down to 85. With speed and defence, that's tolerable. But he stole just seven bases in 2021, and has only two this year — and he's been caught three times.
Statcast's Outs Above Average likes his glove better than Zimmer's this year, in a similar number of innings, but the sample is very small, and DRS and UZR lean more toward Zimmer.
Zimmer has only stolen two bases himself, but his sprint speed at least registers in the 96th percentile. Bradley's is in the 45th.
There's an art to stealing a base that goes beyond pure speed, of course, and Bradley's elite ability to get a jump on balls in the outfield (93rd percentile) suggests an ability to accelerate quickly that masks a surprising lack of top-end speed (at 27.0 ft/s this year, he's behind the likes of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Matt Chapman, and Cavan Biggio). But JBJ is at -1.3 base running runs this year, per FanGraphs. Zimmer is at +0.6. Whit Merrifield is at 2.3. I don't think it's particularly difficult to decide which guy you want in a pinch running spot.
So if the defence is a wash, the base running tilts to Zimmer, and the hitting shouldn't matter, why is he here?
Well, one thought is that it's because hitting might matter. It could matter in a very scary way — i.e. the team is more concerned about George Springer that they let on. Or it could matter in a much less terrifying, and more marginal way. If Merrifield or Raimel Tapia are needed elsewhere on the diamond, or need a day off themselves, and Springer isn't yet healthy, you'd prefer JBJ's bat over Zimmer's. And it's not particularly close.
Bradley is bad at the plate, yes, but he's not Zimmer-level atrocious. JBJ has been struck out in just 20% of his plate appearances this year; for Zimmer that number is nearly double (38.4%). If nothing else, a ball in play can be more useful than a strikeout, particularly in certain situations.
Is the potential gain in a handful of very specific opportunities where Bradley would do better worth what you lose in Zimmer? I mean, you don't lose much in Zimmer, so who really cares? But, I don't know. Maybe?
I just mostly hope that really is the calculation, and that nobody over there is thinking that two years removed from his dead cat bounce, after having been two wins below replacement since the start of 2021, this is a guy who should be anywhere near the lineup.
And the thing about that is, we already know that the Jays liked JBJ enough to try to trade for him last winter, before the lockout. Ken Rosenthal reported as much for the Athletic back in December, saying that a one-for-one deal that would have sent Randal Grichuk to the Brewers for Bradley was discussed before Milwaukee instead fleeced the Red Sox and got Hunter Renfroe instead.
The Jays also looked at Bradley as a free agent option going into 2021, but instead managed to pull off the Springer deal.
Clearly they've seen how inept Bradley has been this season — though he does have three doubles and a pair of home runs in eight games since the All-Star break — but these things concern me. At least somewhat slightly.
Hey, but I suppose it could be worse. They did check in on Brett Gardner at some point.
Lastly…
We’ve got some busy schedules this week when it comes to Blue Jays Happy Hour, so Nick and I won’t be doing a post-game show, and instead will be coming to you lived at 11 AM ET on Wednesday morning!
Be sure to get the Callin app and follow us on there so you can tune in, drop us a question in the chat, or give us a call. See you then!
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