The Jays are not hitting at all. Sound familiar? Well, it really isn't. And there are three big reasons—for it, and for obvious hope—at the top of their lineup.
This team is making me tired. I'm tired of all the excuses, I'm tried of hearing that it's early, that the game is hard, that things will revert to the mean. I'm tired of all the positive spins and underlying positive analytics. I'm sorry, but collectively our offence is shit. Or am I missing something and being misguided thinking that 20% of the season is actually meaningful? The game is hard for everyone, but other teams seem to manage much better than we do on a much more consistent basis. And we were supposed to be one of those teams. Ultimately what it really comes down to is the fact that we are just not as good as those other teams.
The hitting has been a problem, the team has faced some great pitching staff, we don't have a stretched-out 5th starter, some of our top bullpen arms have had health issues, and we are only two games below .500?
The sky is not falling. Winning in baseball is hard, and we are treading water while not playing well at all. I'll take it for now, but if this continues into June, at that point the doubt will be creeping in for me.
Despite the objectively decent wRC+, my subjective impression about Vlad’s season so far is that too many of his at bats have felt like a punch in the stomach. I’m not sure there’s a metric for that though.
The aging curve for swing speed is interesting, and might even be worse than it appears as it’s conceivable the later years are affected by survivorship bias I.e. only older players who falloff less tend to stay in the majors to have their swing speed recorded.
It's interesting that Springer, Bichette Guerrero and Kirk account for the 41% of Toronto's plate appearances. Their wRC+ is 80. Everyone else has a 107 wRC+. I think a positive turnaround is on the horizon.
Chris Black's comment regarding the high-quality pitchers faced by Toronto reminded me of Tim McCarver's quote concerning Bob Gibson.
"Bob Gibson was the luckiest pitcher I ever saw. Every time he pitched, the other team didn't score any runs."😉
Seriously, what is going on with Bo?
This team is making me tired. I'm tired of all the excuses, I'm tried of hearing that it's early, that the game is hard, that things will revert to the mean. I'm tired of all the positive spins and underlying positive analytics. I'm sorry, but collectively our offence is shit. Or am I missing something and being misguided thinking that 20% of the season is actually meaningful? The game is hard for everyone, but other teams seem to manage much better than we do on a much more consistent basis. And we were supposed to be one of those teams. Ultimately what it really comes down to is the fact that we are just not as good as those other teams.
The hitting has been a problem, the team has faced some great pitching staff, we don't have a stretched-out 5th starter, some of our top bullpen arms have had health issues, and we are only two games below .500?
The sky is not falling. Winning in baseball is hard, and we are treading water while not playing well at all. I'll take it for now, but if this continues into June, at that point the doubt will be creeping in for me.
Despite the objectively decent wRC+, my subjective impression about Vlad’s season so far is that too many of his at bats have felt like a punch in the stomach. I’m not sure there’s a metric for that though.
The aging curve for swing speed is interesting, and might even be worse than it appears as it’s conceivable the later years are affected by survivorship bias I.e. only older players who falloff less tend to stay in the majors to have their swing speed recorded.
Excellent article, well done.
It's interesting that Springer, Bichette Guerrero and Kirk account for the 41% of Toronto's plate appearances. Their wRC+ is 80. Everyone else has a 107 wRC+. I think a positive turnaround is on the horizon.
Chris Black's comment regarding the high-quality pitchers faced by Toronto reminded me of Tim McCarver's quote concerning Bob Gibson.
"Bob Gibson was the luckiest pitcher I ever saw. Every time he pitched, the other team didn't score any runs."😉
Thanks, Stoeten. I needed that.