Everything's coming up Vladdy; The Springer situation; Minor league baseball returns; Gil Kim speaks; and more!
Late night baseball continues for those of us out east. So let’s talk about it!
But first, please indulge me while I attempt to make a living. Because if you’ve been sent here by a friend, or are an existing subscriber who would like to move to a paid membership so you can comment, ask questions the next time I open up the ol’ mail bag, or just plain old support what I do, click below to upgrade or become a subscriber. I will be eternally grateful if you do!
The Jays managed to make Monday’s opener in Oakland close, but they couldn’t quite get there in the end. As I write this they’re already underway in Oakland for game two, but we can still cover some bigger picture stuff in an ostensible look back at last night, so let’s do that with a little game of three up, three down…
▲ Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Ho hum, Vladdy continues to be ridiculously good.
Speaking with reporters via Zoom back on Sunday, Gil Kim, the Jays’ director of player development, discussed what he’s seen from Guerrero so far this season, and heaped more of the kind of praise we’re starting to get accustomed to onto our slightly-less-large adult son.
“It's extremely fulfilling for a lot of our staff. As a group our goal is to help these guys be the best players and people they can possibly be. When you spend so much time — not just myself, obviously, a lot of our staff — thinking about Vladdy's development, thinking about how we can best help him. Seeing that progress from 2016 on to the performance now on the field impacting our major league club, it's definitely fulfilling. It's the reason we do our jobs. And it's something that we're excited to see continue.”
Asked about what, specifically, has changed to bring Vlad back closer to where he was in the minors in 2018, Kim elaborated.
“That question has come up a lot these days. Vladdy is an explosive, athletic, and dynamic athlete. He's always been able to operate and move around with an athleticism that I think we maybe didn't see in the last year or so. And in 2018, he was obviously playing third base, and I still think that there are a lot of similarities between that version and this version.
Offensively he's extremely talented, good plate discipline, ability to do damage and ability to make contact have always been elite. I think that year he hit close to .400 across a couple levels, and had about as many walks as strikeouts. I think the version this year, believe it or not, he's probably a little bit more disciplined with his swing decisions.
He's extremely aggressive in his zone, and he's not budging outside of that zone. So I think it's all the positive and the impact talent, offensively, that was saw in 2018, with probably a better command of the strike zone right now.
And then defensively he's obviously playing a different position, but if you ask John Schneider, if you ask our development staff, there's an explosive athlete in there who controls his body well, and we saw some of that probably in 2018 that we're seeing a little bit more now, that we haven't seen in the last couple years. But he's definitely an exciting player. He was an exciting player to watch back then, and he's exciting to watch right now. And really, he's another guy that you're just really pumped and fired up for him because of what he's done himself, and through the years. And how he's matured, and thought about his development, how he attacked it on his own, with our support, but really driven by himself this offseason.
The physical development, it's not just about the weight, it's about the athlete that he was able to unlock this off-season that we're seeing now.
The idea that Vlad could actually be better now than what he showed in that minor league season is terrifying and beautiful, and I totally believe it. I also think Kim’s last point is an especially important one. Last year it seemed like Vlad, with the weight he was carrying, wasn’t as balanced as before, and presumably was having trouble repeating his swing.
As Ross Atkins put it back in February, “If you think about the reps that it takes and how many swings they'll take before they get into a batter's box to understand what's going to happen with a bat path at the right time to create the right trajectory of their swing, which creates the right trajectory on the ball, so much of it is about the athleticism that you can repeat.”
“The better shape that you're in, the more repeatable things are going to be, because you're able to repeat them more in your practice,” he added.
A lot was made last year about Vlad’s launch angle, and for good reason. This year his average launch angle sits at 10°, up from a sub-par 4.5° in 2020, but the change doesn’t appear to have come from him altering his swing to chase launch angle. That tracks with the physical transformation and with what Dante Bichette said in a Zoom session last September that I find myself frequently going back to.
“Too much, I think, has been made with getting the ball in the air with him,” Bichette explained at the time. “He's played on most of Bo's teams, so I saw him through the minor leagues, and to me he's a line drive guy. He's a guy who could maybe one day win a batting title — and, oh by the way, hit a ton for power, just because he's so strong. When he's hitting the ball out the other way like he did (two weeks ago), and pulling the ball at 150 mph, and I tell you a good sign with Vladdy, when he punched out on the real slow pitch last night and he smiled — that's a good sign when he's laughing. He's having fun, he feels confident, he's ready to go.”
I’m sure I’ve used that quote before, but there’s more from that session that I think also gives us some real insight into the Vlad we’re seeing now. For example, this passage.
“I've tried to get him away from trying to lift the ball, because when he lifts the ball, if you understand swing path, you've got to catch it out front on the way up. So we back the ball up a little bit and just try to get him on path earlier, so he's more on path with the ball and is more consistent. When you (try to) lift the ball, sometimes when you're early you'll roll over it and you'll actually make it worse, and you'll actually hit more ground balls. So, just a simple drill — and I made it simple with Vladdy — 'let's do this simple drill, we'll pound it inside, catch the ball deep.' And, you know, it kind of cleared his mind of all the 'hey, I'm trying to get the ball in the air,' and it just made him hit line drives back through the middle in batting practice, and then be the hitter he can be.”
Let’s break that one down a little bit. “I’ve tried to get him away from trying to lift the ball” implies that he had been doing that a little bit. And rolling over the ball was something that he had definitely been doing prior to this year.
Then you look at that sentence at the end, about batting practice. I can’t remember if it was Pat Tabler, or Dan Shulman, or Joe Siddall who spoke on Monday night’s broadcast about the work Vlad puts in during BP, hitting it to all fields, but I definitely feel this quote when I hear things like that, or when I see the way he’s been able to do damage this season.
Bichette spoke a lot that day about swing path and letting the ball get deep, not just for Vlad, but for other players on the Jays as well. He elaborated a little bit in response to a question from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
“You're making me give away secrets I don't want to give away now, Shi. I don't want the whole league knowing what we're doing over here. But otherwise, no, we're talking about letting the ball get deep, no going out — you don't want to jump at the ball — but we're talking about letting the ball get deep. And if you think of the ball as a rope, the path of it as a rope, guys — we've got these launch angle guys that come under and we've got these down — they're not on path. So it's very tough to be consistent that way. Nobody would ever would swing down on a ball or up on a ball deep, so what letting the ball get deep helps you do is get your bat in the zone immediately, right off the bat. Then, say, if you're fooled you're still on the path. If you're beat, you can still jam the ball to right. To me it's a path thing, and it's a must to be a great hitter. So we work on it a lot.”
I was also reminded of yet another quote from Bichette’s session last night, when Vlad hit a ball so hard that it ate up a really good defender in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman.
“One of the great hitters I ever played with was a guy named Dave Winfield. Dave Winfield would hit the ball so hard, I've actually seen shortstops get out of the way. You saw it in Tampa, when Vladdy hit that ball through Lowe, I think it was. You don't want to be in front of 115 mph baseball, it can hurt. So, yes, I've seen one guy hit the ball that hard on the line, and he was a pretty good player.”
That’s a pretty good name to be compared to! Especially for a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.
So what does this all mean?
Well, there has been work done by people much smarter than I am in recent years, as technology has allowed, which has revealed to us the correlation between exit velocity, home run rate, and a hitter’s point of contact. Eno Sarris wrote about this for FanGraphs back in 2017, in a piece titled Power Hitters Should Make Contact Out Front.
Indeed, when you plot out contact point and home run rate on a graph, you see that most home runs are generated on contact well out in front of the plate. And if you plot exit velocity on the same graph — as Andrew Perpetua did in another 2017 piece on the subject, this one at RotoGraphs — you see that it peaks a few inches deeper in.
In other words, letting the ball get in a little bit deeper may not maximize a hitter’s ability to put the ball over the fence, but will do so for exit velocity. Clearly that’s not the only thing Bichette was trying to help Guerrero accomplish with this approach, but as a guy who can hit the ball incredibly hard at the worst of times, and who is a “line drive guy,” it has certainly played into one of his major strengths as a hitter.
Add in the physical improvements, which have allowed him to stay better balanced in his swing, to practice better and repeat his best swing more often, to control the bat through the zone better, to avoid fatigue, and you start to see how it’s all coming together. You start to see why he’s not expanding the zone to force the issue, and why pitchers are now forced to tiptoe around him, allowing him to make use of his excellent eye for balls and strikes, which adds to his productivity at the plate as well.
It is all snowballing for Vlad in the best possible way. And rather than being about simply trying to hit the ball in the air more, I think it’s been about trying to bring out the best in what was already there: a line drive swing that, as we sort of thought all along, will lead to a lot of home runs, but is more about smashing the ball through defenders and cracking piss rockets to the wall.
You love to see it.
▲ The bullpen
Ho hum, the bullpen was really good again.
Travis Bergen and Tim Mayza took over for Steven Matz and threw three innings of two-hit ball, striking out a pair while walking three. Bergen's outing was especially interesting, if not flat out impressive. Once again, he almost exclusively threw fastballs. So far this season 57 of the 59 pitches he's thrown have been four-seamers, with just two curveballs mixed in for good measure.
That, uh, doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for success, but it’s delightfully unusual, and he's been relatively unscathed thus far, so let’s see where this goes!
▲ The A’s Marcus Semien tribute
Sure, I could take a moment here to say nice things about Teoscar Hernández, who has looked surprisingly locked-in since coming back from the COVID list, but I also would like to give a hat tip to the A’s, who really hit all the right notes in their tribute to Semien (who, of course, the team’s owners refused to pay up for last winter, allowing him to be plucked out of free agency by the Blue Jays).
The Athletic’s Alex Coffey has a piece on Semien’s return to the Bay Area that’s also worth checking out.
(Semien himself, it’s worth noting, is starting to come around at the plate somewhat. He’s slashed .316/.409/.500 and posted a 160 wRC+ over his last 44 plate appearances. Small sample, yes, but definitely moving in the right direction.)
▼ Steven Matz
It's completely understandable why Steven Matz was frustrated by his performance on Monday night. Not only did the Jays badly need more innings out of him, as one of their rotation stalwarts, they needed him to be just a little bit better when it counted. Jed Lowrie hit a full count double to score a run in the bottom of the second, and the next batter, Stephen Piscotty, fell behind 1-2 but nonetheless homered on the fourth pitch of his at-bat. Then in the fifth he walked number nine hitter Tony Kemp to start the inning, then two batters later threw a meatball of a changeup to Ramón Laureano, who blasted it for a two-run home run.
The Matz Bandwagon is feeling a little light these days. I definitely thought there was some good to go with the bad, like the six strikeouts over five innings, just one walk. If he had just done a little better job in those four at-bats the story of the game could have been entirely different. But these are the big leagues, and the margin for error ain't thick.
▼ The George Springer situation
Ah, yes. George Springer. The team’s best player (maybe!). The most expensive player in franchise history. The player too healthy to go on the injured list, but to injured to DH or even pinch hit in Monday night’s game.
Springer left Sunday's game in Dunedin with what the team called "fatigue," then manager Charlie Montoyo claimed on Monday that it was "planned.”
“It had nothing to do with yesterday,” he said. “It was already planned that he was going to play two days and off today due to the travel day."
"He's fine,” Montoyo said. “He'll be fine. I haven't talked to him yet, because we haven't hit yet, but after we hit I'll ask him how he feels and everything. But it was a planned off day, for sure, from the beginning."
We were essentially being told that our eyes were deceiving us. Then the Jays went out there and proved that our eyes were correct. Montoyo had said in his pre-game presser that he was unsure if Springer would be available to pinch hit, and when a perfect the situation for him to stride to the plate arose in the ninth inning, to the surprise of absolutely no one, he stayed seated on the bench.
Now, here on Tuesday, Springer still isn’t available to play. Shocking, no?
According to Montoyo, the issue "is not like it was before, or he'd be on the IL again. He's getting better, we just want to make sure he's comfortable. Again, he's day to day, he doesn't need to go on the IL right now, that's for sure."
Here’s the thing. It would not be fun to hear that Springer had to go back on the injured list, and there would be some tough questions for the Jays to answer about why the chose to activate him as quickly as they did. But everyone saw him grab his quad running to first base against Atlanta over the weekend, and the team could plausibly say that he simply, unfortunately, aggravated the injury a little bit.
That would make for more tough questions about why they allowed him to continue playing after that point — particularly tough ones given that we all saw Hyun Jin Ryu seemingly struggling with something during his warm-up last week in Tampa, only to be allowed pitch anyway (then exiting the game early and landing on the IL as well) — but it would at least make sense.
This bullshit where they piss in our mouths and tell us its raining? It does not make sense. And it makes people more cynical about what the team is telling them every time it happens — which is a lot. Believe me, I’ve seen the sarcastic tweets every time the Blue Jays announce that an injury is mild and there’s nothing to be concerned about.
Maybe there’s some great benefit to doing things this way that I’m unable to see here. But it would also seem to me that there’s an art to lying.
I don’t think fans want to be lied to, but I think most understand sometimes the nature of the business necessitates it. Abusing that trust, and especially doing so for utterly pointless reasons like this, creates doubt and hostility. It hardly seems worth it.
▼ The umpiring
Was the umpiring especially poor on Monday? Who can even remember at this point? But a down arrow it is!
Mr. Rogers’ Neighbourhood
Hey, and here we have another hilariously bad attempt at damage control. On Monday afternoon, Edward Rogers’ wife, Suzanne, released a statement regarding the photo she and her family posed for with Donald Trump, which went for a bit of a viral ride over the weekend.
LOL. You were at the place famously owned by Trump, with Trump in the house, and posed for a picture with Trump. A lot of chances for you to not come off like someone who doesn’t have a problem with a wannabe dictator, yet you waited until after people rightly called you on it to feign innocence? Good luck with that.
Extremely funny that he’s so toxic to the brand that the PR people had to get involved, though.
Quickly
• Sportsnet’s Ben Wagner tweeted on Monday that catcher Alejandro Kirk’s hip injury could keep him out for as long as six weeks. Not good news, obviously, and one that seems to have instantly changed the Blue Jays’ catching plans. Riley Adams is currently the backup, but Wagner tweeted on Tuesday that Reese McGuire has also entered the picture, joining up with the Jays’ taxi squad.
My guess is that it’s going to be a short stay on the taxi squad for McGuire. They’d need to find a spot on the 40-man for him, but given his experience catching most of the Jays’ pitching staff, and the fact that Adams would be better served playing every day in Buffalo, I can’t help but think the Jays will make a move there at some point soon.
Former star of the taxi squad, catcher Caleb Joseph, was recently released by the Mets. Does he get picked up to return to the taxi squad in case of emergency, perhaps?
• Speaking of guys that have been officially released, Tanner Roark, everybody!
• Nate Pearson was back on the mound in a competitive game here on Tuesday night, making his season debut for the Buffalo Bisons in Triple-A, and pitching extremely well, it turns out.
The fact that he pitched well is, obviously, good news. The fact that he got through the start healthy is even better. Because, as we’ve heard a little bit over the last couple of weeks, Pearson has been working on some slight changes to his mechanics to make them less violent. Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet spoke to him, and elaborates.
What they found was a tendency to tense up just as he was about to release the ball, born from Pearson’s desire to throw with as much velocity as possible. Rather than staying smooth and efficient through his pitching motion, he was introducing an unnecessary amount of tension at a point in his delivery when he’s already transferring a great amount of force through his body.
It was, as Pearson put it, “not necessarily in the best interest for me.” So, he went to work smoothing out that final action, focusing on staying relaxed and trusting the natural velocity his six-foot-six, 250-pound frame produces, rather than stressing himself to push through the ball with so much force.
“It’s about throwing with a little bit less effort and feeling more whippy — just throwing more effortlessly. Not trying to chase velo or anything, just trying to pitch. It's definitely a little bit new. I'm adjusting to those mechanics. But I'm feeling really great with them and feeling healthy,” he says. “Before, I felt like I was nice and smooth and then at the last minute I would tense up and try to throw the ball as hard as I can. That's when my command would get sporadic. And I feel like right now I'm focused on staying one speed the whole time and just keeping the body quiet through the whole delivery.
“The modified mechanics, they're not crazy different or anything. You may not even really be able to tell. It's more just staying calm on the mound and being less violent.”
So far so good. In addition to pitching well with the tweaked mechanics, Pearson was reportedly up to 100 mph on the radar gun.
Gil Kim speaks!
Gil Kim, the aforementioned director of player development, spoke with the media during a lengthy Zoom session on Sunday. Here are some highlights.
• On Nate Pearson
Nate's in Triple-A right now, and he's competing for a spot in the starting rotation here. We have a ton of faith and confidence in Nate. He's obviously one of the most talented pitchers we have, stuff wise. He's one of the hardest workers we have. He's extremely driven. And the focus and priority right now is him being as healthy as possible, getting some innings under his belt, and continuing to develop. Because as talent as he is, there's development there that he's attacking, and we're excited to see him compete for a spot here and hopefully have him impact our team soon.
This was a really interesting one because of the fact that Kim made it clear that Pearson is going to have to earn his way back into the Blue Jays’ rotation.
I mean, they have, like, two healthy starters at the moment, so I don’t think it’s going to be difficult for him as long as he pitches the way he’s capable — which he has, obviously, already begun doing. But I get it. It’s probably not a great idea to announce that the team is handing him a spot just because of his prospect pedigree.
• On Alek Manoah
The thought process behind Triple-A was mainly driven for two reasons, one to challenge him at the highest level that we thought he was ready for, and two, to put him in the best sort of team environment — their combination of players and staff — where we felt very good about Alek's potential to develop with that group. So, obviously, Alek has not pitched a ton in full season ball, but we felt like the combination of stuff, ability, specifically of his competitiveness and his resiliency, would give him a really good chance to continue to develop at a level where he's challenged.
Kim wasn’t taking the bait when asked to try to put a timeline on Manoah just yet, which is fair. He also talked about the process of deciding minor league assignments, which he admitted factored spring training performance more than usual this year. That’s fairly understandable, given how little some of these guys have pitched in competitive environments over the last year. It’s also, well, obvious given where Manoah has ended up.
• On Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans
Both of those players are going to continue focusing on shortstop. Obviously you can't play shortstop — I mean, both of them can't play every day. So, Austin will be playing shortstop, and will be playing a little bit of centre field as well. Jordan will be playing shortstop, and will be playing a little of third base as well too. Both of those young men have put a ton of time and effort and work into developing as shortstops. But they're talented athletes who can play different positions as well. We do see value, developmentally and athletically, in bouncing around from spot to spot, as we've seen from some of the guys up here. So they'll be moving around a little bit, but the main focus is on them being the best shortstops they can be.
I’d like to maybe see Martin get more of a chance at third, simply because that’s a position of need for the Jays, and there’s a chance his bat may come quickly — as I wrote about back on Sunday.
Speaking of these two, they were also in action here on Tuesday in Double-A. Martin went 2-for-4 with a double and a walk. Groshans walked twice, hit a single, and scored a pair of runs. And catching prospect Gabriel Moreno (also on the 40-man!) was 3-for-5 with a double, a walk, a pair of RBIs, and three runs scored. The Fisher Cats won 11-2 over the WooSox.
Not that he was playing favourites or anything, but Kim was clearly particularly excited to see Groshans back in action.
Jordan playing full season baseball again is one of the most exciting things for all of us. Just thinking about the amount of work he's put in just to get back to a health state a couple years ago, and how committed he's been really throughout the last year or so. Going to "summer camp," going through the alt-site, challenging himself at that level, working through some struggles and then coming out of it a better player last year, and having a camp here where he did really well. We're just excited about the progress he's made and the ability to see him get at-bats. Hats off to Guillermo, Hudge, Hunter Mense. Our hitting department have consistently challenged our hitters with competitive environments in their training — simulating at-bats, using different machines, spins, variable training — to help simulate some ABs for guys as much as possible, but obviously nothing's like the real thing. So we're definitely excited to see Jordan's progress here.
• On Simeon Woods Richardson
Similar to Jordan with Simeon. It was great to see him go to "summer camp," it was great to see him handle himself the way he did, with the maturity he did at the alt-site last year, and then coming into spring training here not missing a beat either. Simeon's got one of the best changeups we have in the organization, fastball plays well as well, and the breaking balls are coming along too. He has the stuff to be a very good starter. With the assignment to Double-A, he's probably following the progression that he would have followed coming off of a High-A season, and we fully expect him to do well there and continue to progress.
Double-A is pretty close to the big leagues. Alex Anthopoulos would like to remind you of that.
• On Eric Pardinho
Eric is still in his rehab progression right now. We do expect him to pitch in full season at some point this year. When that is, we're not sure yet. But he is progressing well. Eric, you're talking about a young man that basically since the pandemic has been here in Florida working out and training. He did not go home at all. And the level of commitment that Eric has shown, the level of maturity that he's shown, the strides he's made with his physical development, with his maturity, are unbelievable. So we're happy for where he is and we're excited for when he'll come back.
Imagine if Pardinho came back strong and resumed being yet another top prospect for the Jays? Works for me!
• On players getting fast tracked
I think it changes depending on each individual player and the resources available, and what we think is best for that player's development. So I wouldn't say necessarily it changes from year to year, more so it probably just changes from player to player. A lot of players on our big league club right now have progressed year to year, level to level, and had maybe more of a traditional path. And then, obviously, you hit it on the head, last year you see a pretty big jump in Kirk. I think it really is a combination of what will be the best for this player's long-term development, factoring in his current talent level, past performance. A lot of the mental aspect, as you know. How much can they handle failure at that next level and continue to focus on development? So yeah, a lot of factors go into that, and I wouldn't say it's one specific thing. But I do think examples like Kirk last year, and when we see the number of young players having success in the major leagues right now, it does open your mind. We always challenge ourselves to open our minds to different development tactics, different strategies in baseball. It opens your mind to thinking more about maybe you can be more aggressive in certain cases.
Free him. Freeeeeeeee himmmmmmmm.
Top image via @BlueJays
Everything's coming up Vladdy; The Springer situation; Minor league baseball returns; Gil Kim speaks; and more!
Re: A’s Semien Tribute
Oakland is very much my favourite place to see a game, anywhere. I’m really lucky to have been in that stadium for some famous and infamous baseball moments. (Bay-Bridge 2, Rickey’s number retirement…)
And, on a lesser scale, Donaldson’s return to Oakland. I wore a crisp new Jays/Donaldson t-shirt, expecting at least some well-deserved shit-talk from A’s fans in response. (Hey, I’ve been called a n****r twice at Fenway simply for the transgression of flying my team’s colours.) Instead I was accosted by fan after fan, with resoundingly similar concerns: they wanted to make sure I knew exactly how fucking good Donaldson was and how lucky Jays fans were to have him. More than one said “congratulations”, and genuinely at that. (I can tell you as a grad of the Expos’ talent-seeding of MLB, we were not blasé about beneficiary teams.)
Know this: Oakland Athletics fans are CLASS. They have put up with such shit – Davis & Davis, Mount Davis, etc, etc – and still show up (in smallish numbers) because they love the game. They devote exactly zero energy to hating on opposing fans. And the tailgate culture is strong and super chill.
Such an unlikely, amazing place to see a game. Put it at or near the top of your post-pandemic list.