We have a trade! And though it’s certainly not of the blockbuster variety, it’s one that improves the Blue Jays in an area that requires improvement while costing them little of significance — a player from an area of strong depth — and helps clear some of their upcoming 40-man log jam (which I discussed earlier in the week) as well.
So let’s talk about it!
• But first let me take a second to try to earn a living. Because if you’d like to receive an immediate email every single time I post something on the site, or would like to upgrade to a paid membership in order to support what I do and help keep these posts free for everybody, you can do all that with just a couple of clicks and I would be eternally grateful to you if you do! •
Very interesting that the Jays have now acquired two pitchers picked up by Cleveland during their 2018 run. Great minds or something, eh?
So what do we make of all of it? Other than a great opportunity to make puns and/or Reese McGuire jokes, I think we have a pretty good trade.
Heading to Washington is catching prospect Riley Adams. We saw Adams in the majors briefly this summer, when both Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk were on the injured list. Other than in batting practice he wasn’t able to display the prodigious power that he had shown throughout his minor league career, however he was able to show off his suspect contact skills. Reasonably competent behind the plate, Adams is still a work in progress and profiles eventually as a bat-first backup who can hit you a good number of home runs and take an average number of walks while not doing a whole lot else.
His fit in the Blue Jays’ organization always made him feel like a potential trade chip, as he was, up until this move, the fifth man on the depth chart behind McGuire, Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and top prospect Gabriel Moreno (not necessarily in that order). He was probably a little too valuable to simply lose his spot for nothing in the 40-man crunch the Jays are currently/about to be dealing with — which I wrote about earlier in the week — but there really wasn’t a path here for him. Nor should there have been at this stage. There’s a bit of promise there, but nothing about him says “future everyday player” to me. Plus there’s the issue of playing time. Moreno showed during his stint in Double-A before breaking his thumb that he’s just about ready for the next challenge. So if Adams had stuck around, he’d have ended up splitting time with him, and then eventually splitting time with whoever gets demoted when Moreno ascends to the bigs. In other words, it was getting to the point where he was sort of just in the way. A fresh start in a new organization makes a bunch of sense for all involved.
What have the Jays spun years of control of Adams into? A couple months of Brad Hand, a lefty reliever on a one-year deal who is having his worst season in terms of strikeout and walk rate since things first really clicked for him with the Padres in 2016. That makes it sound worse than it really is, because Hand has set the bar very high for himself, averaging 1.4 fWAR over the previous five seasons. That's an impressive number for a reliever and, in fact, his 7.1 fWAR from 2016 through 2020 ranks seventh among all relievers over that span.
With only two months left on his contract, we are, of course, less interested in the past than the present. Hand's fastball velocity is up this year, though his slider remains a couple ticks below where it was when he was at his best (albeit above where it was last season). Perhaps that's why he's thrown more fastballs and fewer sliders than he has since 2017. And perhaps that has something to do with his drop in swinging strike rate — and strikeout rate overall.
Likely related is the fact that he’s seen some noticeable slippage in his spin rates since the “sticky stuff” crackdown in mid-June — though not nearly as alarming as in the case of the Pirates’ Richard Rodríguez, about whom I wrote on Wednesday.
The result is a season that very much does not look like the Brad Hand of the past.
The Jays are making a bet that the guy on the left is still in there, or that Pete Walker, Matt Buschmann and company can help coax him back out. They also seem to be making a bet that a run of recent struggles — Hand has blown saves in three of his last six appearances and allowed eight runs (seven earned) in 5 2/3 innings over that span — could end up turning him into a real bargain. Prior to the All-Star break, Hand had a much tidier 2.43 ERA than the 3.59 mark he sports today and probably would have cost teams a bit more. If he simply goes back to being the guy he was a couple of weeks ago, there could end up being a Grilli-esque quality to this deal for the Jays’ front office.
Even taking into account the recent troubles, there are things to like about the 2021 version of Hand. He's held left-handed batters to a .216/.310/.324 line and has been just as good against right-handers, at .198/.299/.362. For a bullpen like the Blue Jays have, that will play. As will the fact that he’s saved 21 games for the Nats this year, blowing save opportunities only five time. Not perfect stuff, but for a Blue Jays bullpen that obviously needed help, it’s a win. Even if they didn’t manage to pull the Yankees’ trick of getting the team giving them a good player to also pay his salary. Sigh.
The Jays liked Hand enough to chase him as a free agent last winter, eventually backing off of making the two-year commitment he was seeking (and did not get) and made the ill-fated decision to go with Kirby Yates. What a difference that might have made!
Even still, it might be too little too late for these Jays without more moves to come. It’s a show of faith in their team, yes. But a mild one. It’s bargain hunting, not team transforming. But Hand, along with Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards, is a pretty good start. Now go do more.
Top image via the Toronto Blue Jays/@BlueJays