Jays sign infielder Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18 million deal!

As first reported by former All-Star Carlos Baerga on his Instagram page Tuesday night, the Blue Jays have agreed to sign free agent infielder Marcus Semien to a one-year deal worth $18 million. The money, Baerga says, is a little higher than it would have been because Semien has agreed to play second base for the Blue Jays.

And, according to both Jon Heyman and Jeff Passan, Baerga is absolutely correct. The Jays have themselves a new, uh, second baseman!

I’m not sure what to make of the positional aspect of this move, or of the fact that the Jays have added yet another right-handed bat. What I am sure about, however, is that Marcus Semien is going to be an outstanding addition to a lineup that is going to be very, very fun indeed.

Now, some fans will look at the numbers that Semien put up in 2020 with the A’s, see how similar they are to what he did in the seasons prior to his big breakout in 2019, and conclude that 2019 was just a fluke and the Jays (if this is really a thing) are making a mistake. Ho ho ho, not so fast, little man.

“A slow start had an oversized effect on (his) overall numbers (in 2020). After 14 games, Semien had a 24 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR. Over his next 46 games, he put up a 133 wRC+ and 2.0 WAR — nearly identical to his great 2019 performance,” wrote Craig Edwards of FanGraphs back in November, in a piece detailing how Semien was a potential free agent bargain this winter.

“His Statcast numbers back that up, with a .347 xwOBA after his first two weeks,” he adds. “In a normal season, maybe Semien has a rough couple weeks but gets hot in the middle of June and, with 100 games to go, is looking at a 4–5 WAR season heading to free agency instead of reaching it as the three-win player the market might treat him as.”

Edwards also notes that the free agent with the most fWAR over the last three seasons is not J.T. Realmuto, not D.J. LeMahieu, not Trevor Bauer, and not even George Springer. It was Marcus Semien.

And while, yes, he’ll lose some value by being moved off of shortstop, and yes, his total number over the last three years is inflated by his ridiculous 7.6 WAR in 2019, the flip side of that is that he had a 7.6 WAR in 2019. Semien is going to be an incredibly valuable player no matter where he plays and — holy shit! — in 2021 it’s going to be for the Toronto Blue Jays.

He’s also only just 30 years old, which will not put him in the greatest shape to re-enter free agency again next year with a ton of younger shortstop talent set to hit the open market — bad news for him (though showing his ability to play elsewhere could help), but possibly good news for a Blue Jays team that may want to get him extended at some point if things go well. Or who may want to give him a qualifying offer next winter — something they’ll be able to do because the A’s chose not to back in November.

But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves just yet.

The fact that Semien can play shortstop — and offered elite defence there in 2018 and 2019 according to UZR and DRS — is also a huge plus. Just think of the list of guys who the Jays were using to backup Bo Bichette in 2020: Jonathan Villar, Santiago Espinal, Joe Panik. Had they added someone like Kris Bryant, for example, that would have necessitated carrying a proper backup shortstop. Now the Jays have cover for shortstop playing (supposedly) at second base.

I also wouldn’t necessarily rule out the addition of someone like Bryant just yet either. Or, perhaps, someone a little cheaper, like the left-handed hitting Tommy La Stella, who could be an interesting platoon-mate for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at third. (UPDATE: It won’t be La Stella, who has signed with the Giants. It won’t be Andrelton Simmons either, as he’s agreed to join the Twins.)

What would that mean for current second baseman Cavan Biggio? Well, even with another infielder still to come, Biggio could get close to everyday at-bats by spelling players at a variety of positions. I have no reason to doubt that the Jays don’t really like a whole lot about Biggio’s game — I don’t think making an addition like that would be in any way forcing him out — but there are some red flags in his ability to hit high velocity, the fact that teams can have success shifting on him, and some of the grim Statcast numbers he produced in 2020. He’s made his unorthodox toolkit work incredibly well so far, but if ever it starts to slip, and there’s reason to wonder if it might, the ability to deploy him a little more selectively will be a huge asset for the Jays. (For now, though, the Jays are evidently saying they’re comfortable with him as their primary third baseman.)

But enough about Biggio. The Jays just signed Marcus Semien! Their lineup looks fantastic! They’re spending to be contending! We’re having a real off-season! (And if this is finally the year where young Vladdy truly unlocks his potential, look the hell out.) Good times, good times.

I mean, the last time the Jays added an infielder from Oakland it worked out pretty well, amiright?