José Berríos to the Blue Jays!
Uh... with Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson going the other way!
The big boy pants appear to have been put on, as Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic is reporting that the Toronto Blue Jays have made a trade for José Berríos of the Minnesota Twins!
The first prospect we’ve heard to be heading the other way is Simeon Woods Richardson.
And the second one we’ve heard is… Austin Martin.
Well that’s a lot to process, because that’s a whole lot of prospect capital. Woods Richardson has lost a bit of shine this year — he dropped off Baseball America’s top 100 according to their mid-season update — as has seen his walk rate oddly balloon in his first taste of Double-A. I don’t think anybody would have balked at him being in this deal. Martin, though he has also slipped in BA’s estimation, is another story.
The number five pick in last year’s draft, Martin fell into the lap of a Jays organization that was already loaded with middle infield talent. Billed as possibly the best player in the draft, he fell to their spot, giving them little choice but to take him. But maybe he just wasn’t really the guy they ever wanted. Or perhaps they’re concerned about what they’ve seen this year with his swing and his lack of power. Keith Law, who has always been high on Martin and ranked him number 12 in his mid-season top 50 for the Athletic, wrote then that “Martin’s swing has become a bit more inside-out this year than it was in college, possibly because of a hand injury he sustained on a slide in mid-May.”
Law was unconcerned about all that. Maybe the Jays were. Or maybe they agree and just really felt the need to go out and get a game-changing pitcher. Because they’ve absolutely done that, and paid a staggeringly steep price for it.
But that’s the story here. The Jays going for it. The Jays adding a huge, cost-controlled piece for the rotation next year too, as Berríos is arbitration-eligible one last time and should make something in the $10 million range for next year. The Jays front office showing that they’re not the prospect huggers so many fans always believed they were. This is a signal of intent for the Blue Jays organization, and that’s tremendous news. They’re playing with the big boys.
And they should be. Martin’s name has huge sizzle, and the Twins and their fans are absolutely going to feel like they’ve done very well in this deal. But the Jays have a big boy-like collection of talent that they may like even better — Orelvis Martinez and Jordan Groshans in particular (though don’t discount Kevin Smith’s emergence as a factor either). And now they have Berríos. A dependable starter who is not quite an ace, but who doesn’t have to be.
Over 184 2/3 innings since the start of 2020, Berríos has produced 3.4 fWAR — the same number Marcus Stroman did for the Blue Jays in 2017. Berríos has a 3.48 ERA this season, with 126 strikeouts and just 32 walks in 121 2/3 innings. He's also made 20 starts so far, after making 12 last season and 32 each in the previous two years. He's 27 years old, a hard thrower (94.1 mph on his fastball this year), who comes at hitters with a fastball/curve/change mix.
Berríos has an fWAR this season of 2.3. Robbie Ray and Hyun Jin Ryu are both at 1.7. (The Baseball-Reference version likes Ray best, then Ryu, then Berrios, but all are still highly valued.)
Now, did I write yesterday that the Jays shouldn’t be paying “ace” prices for a guy who isn’t one? Yes I did. So while I think this is definitely an overpay, and am as wary of it backfiring as anybody, it’s the kind of move that you make when you have a loaded farm system, a player development pipeline you believe in, and the fourth best run differential in the American League. You don’t have to love it — though if you liked the deadline trades of 2015, I’m not sure how you couldn’t — but it makes the 2021 Jays better, and it makes the 2022 Jays better. It also hurts the future far less than those deals, given how much else is left in the system.
I know Jays fans have this idea a dynasty will eventually get here if they just wait for all their prospects to grow into big league roles, but that’s not a realistic timeline. If Martin and Groshans arrived late next year, we’re talking about 2024 before they’re at the stage of their careers where Guerrero and Bichette are now (the current year is 2021, Ryu is off the books after 2023). It’s also not a fun timeline. We’ve rebuilt enough here already, man. And the Jays are already very good! Their record could be better, but the talent is clearly there — now much more so than yesterday. They’re going to get a huge boost from returning to Toronto. They’re going to get a boost from this. They’re going for it this year and next. Enjoy it! That’s the point of this whole sports thing, isn’t it?
Top image via the Minnesota Twins/@Twins
The Front Office totally proved me wrong and I'm happy about this. But I can't help feeling uneasy for some reason....I hope we don't use up too many of our best positional player prospects to fill the gaps in our starting rotation. I still think our lack of starting pitching depth is our major obstacle for becoming a long-term playoff team.
Years of Jays baseball had me wince when I saw the name Martin. But don’t listen to my wincing! That’s defeatist talk. Let’s go get some flags instead!