Kansas City / Hey-Hey-Hey-Hey!
On Ross Stripling, Rob Manfred's balls, Bo, Vladdy, Nate Pearson, Trevor Rosenthal, Alejandro Kirk, Gausman's location problem, Mark Shapiro, prospects, Matt Gage, and more!
After a long delay the Blue Jays hitters kept the good times rolling in pitcher-friendly Kansas City on Monday night, and this time got some help on the pitching side, too. The Jays rolled the Royals by an 8-0 score, mercifully giving those who waited a real laugher to enjoy.
So let’s talk about it!
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Up: Ross Stripling
The Jays were probably hoping to get four innings out of Stripling in this one, but he was efficient enough that they were able to get five — and letting him go back out one more time was likely not a difficult decision for Charlie Montoyo and Pete Walker. On the night Stripling allowed no runs on just one hit and no walks. He mixed up five pitches — a four-seamer (32%), slider (27%), changeup (20%), knuckle curve (11%), and sinker (11%) — to good effect throughout the game, putting his defence and the spacious park to good use.
Sure, he only managed two strikeouts, and the Royals have a team wRC+ of just 88, but there are still dangerous hitters in that lineup and Stripling kept them at bay for more than half the game. Then in the top of the sixth, just after his exit, his teammates broke the game open, allowing the bullpen to ease the game on home. Nice work!
Despite not being an overpowering guy, Stripling has actually been quite good as a starter when pressed into action this season, allowing just 10 runs over 26 innings (3.46 ERA), while limiting opponents to 24 hits and two walks (1.00 WHIP — I did the math myself!). Opposing batters have slashed just .235/.250/.353 against him when he starts this year, a noticeable uptick compared to his work out of the 'pen.
This is especially good, I think, because the sense I get from how anyone around the team has reported on Hyun Jin Ryu's status is that they feel that the fact that he needs a second opinion is rather ominous. That's just my interpretation, of course. I obviously have no inside information on this. But that's the sort of thing one does when you really don't like the first opinion, isn't it?
Hope I'm wrong! But the rather sombre media scrum that followed Ryu’s latest exit back on Wednesday didn’t exactly fill me with hope either. He’s still due to miss “multiple weeks,” so this is Stripling’s job for now, and this was a good first outing for him.
Up: Rob Manfred’s balls
Oh baby, Bobby Manfred’s balls are juiced again!
Sure, sure, the weather is getting warmer, and that usually helps. But as I noted in this week’s Weekend Up! piece, the folks at Ballpark Pal have noticed an uptick in the rate of home runs vs. expected home runs starting in mid-May that we don’t see reflected in either the 2019 or 2021 data. Plus, it sure as hell felt as though the balls were juicier on Monday night, as Bo Bichette stayed back on an 0-1 changeup on the outer half of the plate and smashed it 411 feet into Amish Alley in right-centre field…
… Santiago Espinal blasted a two-run shot to left field (his fifth of the season) in the sixth, and right before that, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had absolutely demolished a baseball with a 111 mph line drive smash that also ended up in right-centre.
Since the second game of the Jays' series in St. Louis, back on May 24th, Vlad has homered six times in 12 games, posting a 182 wRC+. In June so far he's slashing .292/.370/.833 (235 wRC+) which feels like a nice little correction after his rather pedestrian 97 wRC+ May. The sample is small — just 24 plate appearances so far — but we all know a breakout is going to happen at some point. Might as well be now!
And as for Bo, he hasn't entirely put his miserable April in the rear view, as his wRC+ for the season is still just 107. But since May 1st, in 143 PA he's posted a wRC+ of 146. That puts him among the top 30 hitters in baseball over that span, and third among shortstops, trailing only Tim Anderson and Trea Turner.
Plenty of things will have to go right for the Jays to be successful this season, but first and foremost their stars have to be their stars. It's very encouraging to see both these guys hitting their stride at the same time.
Up?: A two hour rain delay with no rain
A two hour rain delay with no rain. A two hour rain delay with no rain.
I mean, OK, sure, there appeared to have been a thunderstorm warning in the Kansas City area on Monday night, and nobody wants to see anyone struck by lightning or scores of fans and players having to sprint for cover. Around here I think we may have a slightly healthier appreciation for severe summer weather these days, given the events of the other week. But come on. Come onnnnnnn!
On the other hand… I don’t think there’s anything about this game that I could say I’d want to see changed, so maybe this was actually good? Sure, we’ll go with that.
Plus it gave me time to put together a ton of “Other notes” for this one…
Other notes
• This is very good, because that was a scary moment!
• Nate Pearson was moved to the 60-day IL on Monday, but it was only a procedural move, as the Jays needed a 40-man spot after optioning Jeremy Beasley to Buffalo and calling up Matt Gage. More on those two below. As for Pearson, since he has officially been on the IL since April 4th, his 60-day status doesn’t change anything about when he’s eligible to be activated — he’s already been out for more than 60 days.
What this does mean is that when the time comes for Pearson to be recalled — assuming he pitches well enough to earn it, though given some of the characters we’ve seen in the Jays’ bullpen this year that shouldn’t be much of an issue — the Jays will need to find a spot on the 40-man for him. One option could be moving Tayler Saucedo to the 60-day IL. Saucedo has been out with a hip injury since April 30th and is currently building up his arm in Dunedin, with a rehab stint in Buffalo not expected until later on in the month.
• Shi Davidi had a piece up Monday ostensibly about Cavan Biggio, and the small-sample success at the plate he's been having of late — something that could be very valuable to the Jays if he's able to keep it up, especially given his versatility. In it he also notes that Tim Mayza is likely to rejoin the team in Detroit on the weekend, and that he "feels great." (We also get some nice words from Danny Jansen for Ryan Borucki, who was moved to the Mariners over the weekend, and a catch-up with former Jays reliever Joe Smith, who barely recognizes anyone with the team now from when he was here back in 2017).
• Trevor Rosenthal struck out 38 batters in 23 2/3 innings in 2020 while posting a 1.90 ERA for the Royals and Padres. Those were numbers in line with what he had done in his career, prior to a tumultuous 2019 that saw him suffer a viral infection, lose his job, and bounce around to multiple teams. That 2020 season was good enough that the A's signed him to a one-year, $11 million contract for 2021, though he was unable to make a single appearance for the A's that year due to thoracic outlet surgery and then a torn labrum in his hip. What he will be here in 2022 is yet to be determined, but he's a free agent and, according to Jon Heyman, will be showcasing for teams on Tuesday in the Miami area.
If he looks at all like the guy he was before — a high-90s strikeout machine (in 2020 he ranked in the 99th percentile for: K%, velocity, xERA, and xwOBA, among others) — he would be an absolutely perfect fit for a Blue Jays bullpen that sorely lacks swing-and-miss stuff. Provided, as Joshua Howsam points out, he's vaccinated. (Of course, the 2020 version of Rosenthal would be of use to literally any team in baseball, so this may simply be a pipe dream anyway).
• The red hot Alejandro Kirk was merely 1-for-4 with a walk in this one, giving him just two total bases (correction: one total base — walks don’t count, Stoeten!) for the night (though he very nearly hit a three-run home run off of former teammate Joel Payamps in the 7th). That’s below the 3.2 average total bases he’d put up over his 10 games heading into this one, as we can see in the chart below from Props.cash — player prop research made easy! It also marks another positive contribution from a guy who continues to open eyes with his performance at the plate.
The remarkable thing about Kirk, which everybody seemed to forget for a minute earlier in the season, is that he’s been a significantly better than average hitter everywhere he’s played.
Sure, his minor league career was short, but the numbers are all still very impressive, especially considering his age. At 19 in the Appalachian League (1.3 years younger than average) he slashed .354/.443/.558 (160 wRC+) over 244 PA. At 20 in the Midwest League (1.3 years younger than average) he slashed .299/.427/.520 (173 wRC+) over 96 PA, then moved up to the Florida State League (2.4 years younger than average) and slashed .288/.395/.446 (153 wRC+) over 276 PA. He produced a 165 wRC+ as a big leaguer in his 25 PA cameo in 2020. Then last year, at age 22 (4.5 years younger than average), he slashed .347/.393/.531 (144 wRC+) over 56 PA in Buffalo. He entered Monday's game with a 147 wRC+ over 162 PA this season.
The only time he's ever really faltered as a hitter was last year in the majors, when over 189 PA he slashed .242/.328/.436 thanks largely to a .234 BABIP. His xBA last year was .288, and his xSLG was .515, so he seriously underperformed what was expected. And yet his 106 wRC+ was still good for 13th among the 58 MLB catchers with at least 150 PA.
He might be good!
And people have certainly taken notice. Early Tuesday afternoon I noticed that Kirk was the top trending player on Baseball Savant — something I noted on Twitter. I also noted his hilarious Statcast rankings, xwOBA trends, and spray chart. Lmao.
Kirk’s five most similar hitters currently, according to Statcast? Jesse Winkler (2021), Josh Naylor (2022), Josh Bell (2022), Manny Machado (2021), and Matt Olson (2021).
My man is a 5'8" catcher!
• I spent a good deal of Monday thinking more about Kevin Gausman’s Sunday outing and the tipping situation, as well as reading some good tweets (particularly from @jasonfin88, @stephen_burtch, and @DrewGROF) and doing some research into it. And honestly? The more I looked at it the more I’m not sure there’s anything to it.
Gausman is maybe just a little bit predictable, shying away from putting his fastball low, and relying on hitters to swing over top of a splitter that almost always ends up a ball.
Only rarely do either of these pitches end up in the lower third of the zone, and at the risk of oversimplifying, it may simply be that Twins hitters on Sunday decided that they simply weren’t going to offer at anything below belt-high, knowing that the four-seamer wasn’t going to wind up there, and that the splitter would miss. (Or, as @every5thday put it, they perhaps applied the knuckleball theory of “if it’s high let it fly, if it’s low let it go.”)
This comparison of Gausman’s total pitches and the ones that the Twins swung at certainly seems to bear that out rather strikingly.
Want to bet we’ll see some four-seamers to the lower third the next time Gausman pitches?
• Matt Elliott’s outstanding Substack City Hall Watcher featured a familiar face on Monday, in his latest Lobbyist Watch feature: Mark Shapiro!
"Rogers has opened a new lobbying file to talk to City Hall about 'improvements at the Rogers Centre,' with Toronto Blue Jays President & CEO Mark Shapiro taking an active role," he reports. He then wonders if this could simply be because, though the Jays' plans for stadium renovations will focus on the interior of the building, "there could be a need for construction staging areas outside the stadium."
Still, something to keep an eye on. And Matt's newsletter is an outstanding and comprehensive resource for anyone looking to keep tabs on what's happening at City Hall. I don't even live there anymore and I'm a subscriber!
• You have likely heard that the Jays have some pretty interesting things going on down on the farm on the pitching front these days. Well, seeing it laid out like this really drives that home, I think.
That tweet was from a few days ago, too. Since then, Ricky Tiedemann has added a five-inning three-hit shutout with six strikeouts and no walks, taking his ERA down to 1.41. Adrian Hernandez has pitched another perfect inning with one strikeout, taking his ERA down to 0.95 (and 0.60 since his promotion to Buffalo). Dahian Santos pitched four shutout innings, allowing one hit and two walks while striking out seven and taking his ERA down to 1.34. And Nick Frasso has added 3 2/3 shutout innings with one hit, one walk, and six strikeouts, taking his ERA down to 1.32. (Palmer and Juenger also have pitched since, and were fine, but not as notable).
• The Jays have other prospects going well, too! Addison Barger has just been named the Northwest League's player of the week. The lefty-hitting infielder is slashing .297/.341/.547 this year with nine homers so far this year and, according to SI's Ethan Diamandas, "also hit a nuke of Kevin Gausman in spring training."
• Ethan’s SI teammate Mitch Bannon also tells us that Casey Lawrence, who is on the Jays' 40-man and was briefly with the club early last month, has been named the International League pitcher of the week. Lawrence only has 44 strikeouts in 54 innings, but he's walked just 10, allowed just 34 hits, and has posted an ERA of just 2.00 over nine starts — two of which have been complete games, including one shutout!
I'm not betting any of this would translate into big league success, but it may not matter to him at this point. Lawrence is just sort of doing his thing. He’s 34 now, and got his first taste of Triple-A way back in 2013, during his first run with the Jays. Fun facts: On the day Lawrence first signed with the Jays — June 15, 2010 — the big league club lost 8-2 in San Diego to a Padres team that had David Eckstein leading off ahead of Chase Headley and Adrián González. Cito Gaston managed for the Jays. Álex "Sea-bass" González and Jerry Hairston, who both debuted in 1998, were the starting shortstops. Brett Cecil and Mat Latos were the starting pitchers.
It's, uh, been a while, is what I'm saying.
• Speaking of Mitch and Ethan, they each had good ones in recent days, with Mitch talking to Jeremy Beasley for SI about his road back to (briefly be in) the majors with the Jays, and the mechanical tweaks that have helped him get here. Meanwhile Ethan spoke to Matt Chapman for Yahoo Sports, discussing how he approaches coach-less mound visits — something not every position player can get away with.
• Similar to the Beasley piece, Mike Ganter of the Sun spoke to the Jays’ latest call-up, Matt Gage, who apparently looked to the White Sox’ Lucas Giolito (and his short arm action) for inspiration during the COVID shut-down in 2020, and seems to have really found something there. Not only is Gage, who made his big league debut on Monday, now throwing harder than before, he's struck out 21 batters in 16 2/3 innings in Buffalo, walking just five, and has put up a 1.08 ERA. The lefty has done well against both left- and right-handed batters, too.
In his debut we saw him throwing a 93 mph fastball and a cutter at 88 that generated three whiffs on five swings and an additional two called strikes on eight pitches (63% CSW%). Sure, it was just the Royals, but that's somewhat promising.
Plus, his story is a great one. Gage was a 10th-round pick of the Giants in 2012, couldn't get himself out of Triple-A, ended up with the Mets, then independent ball (with the Sugar Land Skeeters!), Mexico, the Diamondbacks org., then back to Mexico before finally landing with the Jays this season. It would be a huge credit to him, to the Jays' pro scouting staff, and their pitching coaches and lab, if he can actually find some real success. But even just making his big league debut after following that unlikely path is plenty impressive in its own right!
• I’m not going to rant about the shameful group of Tampa Bay Rays players, including former Jays reliever Jason Adam, who refused to wear the pride logo on their uniforms this weekend and then cowered behind their religion as an excuse. Or the team’s willingness to let them do so. Or the predictable onslaught of concern-trolling right-wing dumbshits who took to Twitter to ask in bad faith how one can talk about inclusivity while calling others’ views hateful and unacceptable (as if those types give a single shit about inclusivity and aren’t just co-opting compassionate language so they can jump into people’s mentions specifically to defend bigotry).
I do think this tweet was very good, though.
• Lastly, in case you missed it after Sunday’s game, Nick and I hosted a live episode of Blue Jays Happy Hour, which you can have a listen to on Callin (and hopefully in your podcast app of choice, though there’s a known RSS issue at the moment across the Callin network, and I’m not sure when that will be fixed!).
And speaking of the show, we’ve got our schedule set for this week, and it’s a bit different than usual. First up, we’ll be going live at the conclusion of Tuesday game between the Jays and Royals (8:10 PM ET first pitch). Then we’ll be going again on Thursday at 11:30 AM ET with special guest the Zubes!!
Be sure to get the app to listen in live, drop us a Q, or give us a call!
Next up: Tuesday, 8:10 PM ET: Jays @ Royals (Alek Manoah vs. Brad Keller), TV: Sportsnet One, Radio: Sportsnet 590
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UGH re: Danny, but at least Alejandro Kirk remains incredible.
The bombs obscure it, but Danny is hitting .184 with a 102wRC+ since coming off the IL, and is 2 for his last 18.
Over the same period, Kirk's wRC+ is 232.