Mad for Max?
The Jays have a signed an eighth starter to be their fifth starter!
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Nobody ever questions it when the Dodgers go into a season with a massive surplus of viable starting pitchers. They’ll all get used. They’ll figure it out. They’re the Dodgers.
So why wouldn’t the same be true of the Blue Jays?
That was not exactly my first thought when rumblings began intensifying that talks about a reunion between the club and Max Scherzer were getting serious—you can hear those less-formed thoughts, and a whole lot more, on this week’s edition of Blue Jays Happy Hour, which as always is available ad-free with a Patreon subscription and free for all on your podcast app of choice, such as Apple Podcasts or Spotify—but it’s basically where I’ve landed now that the deal is complete. The Jays aren’t thinking about their Opening Day roster here, they’re thinking about October. And what it’s going to take to get back there along the way.
Scherzer can be a part of that.
They’re thinking about Easton Lucas and Paxton Schultz, who combined to make seven starts for the club last year. They’re thinking about Spencer Turnbull and José Ureña, who together made three additional starts and cost about half, or two-thirds, of Scherzer’s meagre—in MLB terms—$3 million base salary.
That’s 10 starts, or just over six percent of the season. Not a ton, per se, but more than enough to be significant considering the Jays finished with the same record as the Yankees, and only won the AL East on a tiebreak. And because the margins as we enter this season look to be just as unbelievably tight.
Now, you might say that Eric Lauer could just as easily take those starts and probably step in and do a better job than a guy who looked basically cooked by the end of September—Scherzer posted a 9.00 ERA over his final six regular season starts—and is really only here based on 14 1/3 gutsy-but-not-great (3.77 ERA/5.58 FIP) playoff innings and a reputation as massive as his mound presence. I’m sure Eric Lauer himself is saying something similar this morning, probably along with a few other choice words.
Lauer, of course, is upset at losing his recent arbitration case, upset that his move to the bullpen late in the year likely cost him money, undoubtedly upset to be staring at another year as mostly a relief option, and has been publicly vocal—though not as aggressively as all that may make it sound—about the whole situation. He had a tremendous comeback season in 2025, but will only make $4.4 million in 2026, which is less than the $5.1 million he made when he avoided arbitration with the Brewers heading into 2023, before his sojourn to the Far East. And his earning power—limited already by his age and his up-and-down track record—would genuinely be bolstered by being able to showcase his ability to start here in his walk year.
Nobody should cry poor for these guys, but the vast majority of them have very short careers, especially when we’re talking about years where they earn more than the minimum. The difference between what Lauer’s career earnings will look like if he spends another year in the ‘pen versus going and being a starter somewhere could be pretty stark. So it’s a real concern for him. He must be frustrated. He must feel like he’s got to climb that mountain all over again.
The thing is, so do the Blue Jays. This winter seemed like such an incredible opportunity for the organization to take a real leap forward in terms of becoming one of the league’s true marquee franchises, and while they obviously have done some tremendous work on that front, and spent a ton of money on some guys we all ought to be really high on, the fact that at the end they didn’t keep Bo Bichette or land Kyle Tucker means that—for however understandable the reasons were that those things didn’t happen—they’re not in cruise control the way the Dodgers maybe are. Or at least appear to be sometimes, even if it that really isn’t true.
The Jays are in a division that’s going to be an absolute dog fight. They need every bit of marginal value they can find. In that context, signing Scherzer makes sense. And so does deploying Lauer in a way that best serves the team’s interests rather than his own.
Other Jays’ pitchers are likely to be affected by the Scherzer news as well, though maybe none quite as negatively.
Kevin Gausman is 35 and just threw more pitches between the regular and postseason than anyone since 2023, and he ranks second in baseball for most pitches thrown by anyone since the start of 2021. Dylan Cease is a mid-career workhorse, but is the only player to rank ahead of Gausman on that list. Shane Bieber is already being eased into the season due to arm fatigue in the wake of his 2024 Tommy John surgery. Last year Cody Ponce—who, according to John Schneider, is unequivocally in the rotation—pitched 180 2/3 innings in Korea, making it the first time since 2017 that he’d topped even the 100-inning mark. José Berríos revealed last week that he pitched with arm problems throughout 2025 (we could tell, José!). And Trey Yesavage went from 93 1/3 innings at East Carolina in 2024 to 139 2/3 between the minors, majors, and playoffs last year and is already being treated gingerly enough by the club to have “set off” one of the most phony, cynical, performative, rage-baiting, 1994-mindset, hot-take radio-call-in dullards on earth. *COUGH*
All of those guys are going to be really well served by breathers here and there, or even strategic IL stints, shortened starts, six-man-rotation spells, piggybacking, moves in and out of the bullpen, etc.
Obviously not all of those solutions will be on the table for each one of those pitchers—like, I don’t think we’re going to see Cease or Gausman drop into the bullpen, for example—but there will be levers to pull if, by some miracle of nature, these guys all spend all of May through September fully healthy and the best versions of themselves. And it’s going to be fun watching John Schneider and his crew, who were so effective last year at strategically deploying guys on the offensive side, try to make it all work—beyond the way that the log jam will simply, to some degree, undoubtedly, sort itself out as we go regardless.
Also fun? The return of Max fucking goddamn fucking Scherzer! I’ll be honest and say (again) that I don’t exactly have high hopes about what he’ll be able to give the Jays on the days that he pitches, but it will nonetheless be tremendous seeing him in that uniform again, incredible having him there for the celebration on Opening Day, and just a straight-up blast watching him get so worked up about... well... everything.
I can’t imagine the Jays are going into this with anything but their eyes fully open about how muich Scherzer may be able to meaningfully contribute to this team on the field, but obviously they truly love the intangibles—the experience and that infectious competitive spirit—that he brings. And I’m sure it doesn’t hurt it says a whole hell of a lot about their organization that this surefire Hall of Famer wants to be here, wants to do it here. And seemingly didn’t have eyes for anybody else.
Nor did his daughter!
So, while you can—and should!—listen to me on a podcast being unsure about how exactly this move makes sense, don’t mistake that for me not loving the idea of Scherzer riding again. I mean, the Dodgers found 112 2/3 innings for Clayton Kershaw last year—one hundred twelve and two-thirds!—and I’m pretty sure that turned out OK for them. Let’s goooooo!!!
Quickly…
• We obviously don’t know precisely what the knock-on effects of this Scherzer signing will be, but one thing that I think it pretty clearly signals is that the optionable guys on the Jays’ roster may have even less job security than they might have expected.
If you’re a Brayden Fisher or one of the lefties (Mason Fluharty and Brendon Little), there’s really nowhere to go but Buffalo once guys like Scherzer, Bieber, and Yimi García get up to speed. Well, unless someone else gets hurt or you’re taking Tommy Nance’s spot. And that’s not even factoring in the Rule 5 guys the Jays may choose to carry. There are going to be some fascinating decisions in a month or so as camp winds down and things have to get locked-in. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a trade, either.
• Where that line of thinking on the position player side may extend is toward Nathan Lukes, who in a lot of ways resembles Lauer. He’s a nice guy to have on your bench, but not exactly someone you want having a massive role in an ideal world. He’s also an older guy who is in a tough spot with respect to the sport’s economic system. Lukes can still be optioned.
It would feel cruel considering how long it’s taken for him to establish himself as a big leaguer—2025 was the first season since 2019 in which he didn’t play the bulk of his games in Triple-A—and how well he acquitted himself last year, but Myles Straw is going to be around to cover centre, and Jesús Sánchez is now the better option to play in left against right-handers. Is having Lukes on the team really the best use of a roster spot when he can be stashed in Buffalo as depth? Considering his poor offensive second half (89 wRC+), which carried into the playoffs (90 wRC+), plus the fact that he’s a very-good-but-not-great defender and not much to write home about on the bases?
Feels weird to say about a guy the team had hitting second in the lineup throughout the playoffs, all the way to game seven of the World Series, but he just feels a little bit like he could—or should—be on the outside looking in.
• One reason I say all that is my way, way, way too early thoughts—which I assume a whole lot of Jays fans have as well—that it might be foolish for the team to let go of non-roster invitee Eloy Jiménez at the end of camp. Obviously we can’t really be taking a few February piss-rockets too seriously, but Eloy really looks the part, he tells Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling that he feels like his old self again, his swing looks great, he had a great Dominican Winter League campaign, he seems to be in a great place with a Jays organization that he feels believes in him, and it’s not even so difficult to see a fit for him. Or, at least, a version of him that’s better than we’ve seen the last two or three years of his career.
That’s where we really start getting ahead of ourselves, especially because even at his best Eloy wasn’t a pure lefty-masher (99 career wRC+ in the split compared to 116 versus right-handers). But right now the Jays’ right-handed bench options are Davis Schneider and Myles Straw.
That’s one guy who is basically just there to stand on the right side of the plate and hope for the best, and another who is really useful again certain pitchers but needs to be shielded from velocity—Schneider ranked 363rd out of 366 batters with at least 100 PA in which a fastball was thrown in terms of average fastball velocity, suggesting the Jays simply didn’t let him see guys who threw harder—especially up in the zone, which is why we hardly saw him in the playoffs.
A proper right-handed bat that can produce some heavy exit velocities and could spell a Sánchez or a Barger late in games or against lefties? We’ve still got a long way to go on this one, but it’s maybe not as crazy an idea as it felt when Eloy first signed on.
• I mean, the Jays are going to see a lot of lefties this season—and Josh pointed out in a subsequent tweet to the one below that the Orioles also have Trevor Rogers. It’s a lot!
• Oh. Yes. Hi. Hello. Hi. Sorry. Yes. Hi.
• According to the latest from down in Dunedin, Scherzer still has to pass a physical, but that it’s not expected to be a problem, as he’s been throwing bullpens already. That also potentially moves up the timeline on his availability.
• Interesting contract! This isn’t the J.P. Ricciardi era, Scherzer isn’t Frank Thomas, and we’re not talking about a reduction in playing time wiping out a $10 million vesting option here. But is there a world where Scherzer gets upset over losing a million dollars by having a start bumped back or getting pulled from a game early? Theoretically, I suppose!
• A lot can change in a month, obviously, but I’d say this seems like the right way to plan things out to begin with.
• I’ve already mentioned the possibility of trades, but I’ve gotta say, while they obviously can happen, the more we hear about this and get used to it, the more it seems like they’re really are just going to hoard rotation depth. I’d still be listening on Lauer and Berríos, mind you.
• OK, I think that’s it for now! Many more words to come as this whole Spring Training thing continues to progress. Plus I’ve got some other fun stuff I’m toying with for the new season too—probably in the video realm.
Thank you for your bearing with me, friends!
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Mad Max is back! I personally love this "hoarding starters" approach, especially with the age and miles on a lot of those guys. Pitchers get hurt. Guys will need random days off. That list of Dodgers starters really says it all. They'll figure it out.
I do feel for Lukas, I agree that he's likely the guy getting squeezed off the roster. Baseball can be cruel. When/if Santander comes back later int he season, things will get really interesting. If he's healthy and productive (big ifs, I know) that's a pretty tasty bat to add to the mix.
Side note: good to see you winding up the content mill, buddy.
fuckin love it.