Ahoy hoy! Before we get to opening the mail bag, I just wanted to thank everyone who has been reading, who has signed up for the mailing list, and who has become a paid subscriber to the site for what has been such a great and heartwarming response to my first week here at the new site. My subscription goals for the year are still a good distance off (please subscribe if you can! *COUGH*), but they seem very much in sight and I can’t tell you how great that feels.
I can, however, tell you that it feels better than being a Jays fan this last week. Oof.
I think Shi Davidi put it perfectly in his Thursday piece for Sportsnet, saying that while watching Lindor and Sugano and Carrasco and Darvish and Kim go elsewhere is hardly the end of the world, the time has come for the Jays to make something happen. "Plenty of good players remain and some of them will eventually take their money," he wrote, "but they should go get who they really want, rather than allow others to decide the path forward for them."
To that I'll add that "We didn't sign any of the free agents that we really wanted but at least we didn't budge on our valuations" is not a message Jays fans are going to take well at the end of a disappointing winter where opportunity was there to be seized. Seize it, ya weirdos.
Now on to the questions. As always, I have not read any of Griff's answers.
"Hey Andrew, thank you for starting this site, I have missed reading your thoughts on all things Blue Jays!! My question for your mailbag is: If you could pick one of the players the Jays have been linked to this off season, which one would you most like to see them acquire?" — Ron
Hey Ron, thanks for the kind words. As to your question, I honestly don't think they can go wrong if they're getting any of the elite guys. At least in on-field terms (I'll spare you another rant about Trevor Bauer’s off-field tendencies). You can definitely make a strong case for J.T. Realmuto, a durable catcher with an elite bat and glove who is heading into his age-30 season. Adding a top backstop on a long-term deal would free the Jays to trade some of their youngsters there — and they certainly would have more trade value than, say, Randal Grichuk.
But for me the answer is Springer.
There are some significant concerns on him, to be sure. He’s not the most durable player, having played just 82% of his team’s games over the last four years. He’s also not quite an elite defender in centre, though he’s improved in that regard over the last two seasons, which may be related to his history of leg issues. Springer’s average sprint speed to first base dipped to a career low of 27.7 feet-per-second in 2018 before rebounding to 28.4 and 28.2 in 2019 and 2020.
Of course, the Rogers Centre turf may not help him, and that’s concerning, but Austin Martin might end up in centre in a couple years anyway, and I still like Springer out there better than Grichuk. As a part-time centre fielder in 2019 and 2020 Springer was +13 runs by DRS compared to Grichuk's -6. He was +3.5 by UZR compared to Grichuk's -3.2. And he was +4 by OAA compared to Grichuk's +1.
Really, though, the bat is the selling point. You know how Teoscar Hernández had a spectacular breakout in 2020 that made it seem as though, if he can sustain that kind of production over a full season, he might be a genuine star? Well, his 146 wRC+ was identical to Springer's. And Springer was better than that in 2019, posting a 156 wRC+ and 6.5 fWAR in 122 games.
As for the guy he would be replacing, Grichuk had a nice few weeks in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season that helped him run his wRC+ up to 112 for the year, but his last four seasons by wRC+ have seen him produce marks of 95, 115, 90, and 112. Until things actually click for him — and at 29 the clock is ticking loudly on that front — he’s about an average hitter and a slightly below average defender in centre. Springer’s last four seasons by wRC+? 140, 118, 156, and 146. It’s a seriously significant difference — according to Steamer’s WAR projections, a bigger one than between Danny Jansen and Realmuto — and would go a long way toward helping vault the Jays ahead of some of their AL Wild Card competition.
"Given the choice of improving pitching with a 1a starter (maybe not Bauer) or the lineup, which would you do first?" — Dave
I know I just wrote a lot of words about why George Springer is my preferred fit, but I think I have to go with the pitcher.
I tend to agree with Mark Shapiro that the Jays’ biggest need is in terms of run prevention. The 2020 Jays ranked seventh in baseball and third in the AL in terms of runs scored, and 25th in terms of runs allowed. Change that to earned runs and they move up to 14th, so there was definitely defensive component to their woes — as attested to by the fact that were -39 runs by DRS as a team, the second worst mark in the majors. But a top starter would be a bigger win for this team than more offensive reinforcements.
Of course, if there was an elite defensive player who was also great with the bat on offer, perhaps packaged together with a really good starter on a multi-year contract, that would really be ideal. But how could you possibly find a trade like that? *COUGH*
"Thanks Richard, how do you think this front office can reconcile jettisoning Stroman for off-field aspects, then begin courting Bauer?" — Chris
Please, please. Call me Griff.
As for your question, it’s tricky. It would be easy to say that there’s no way to reconcile those things if the Jays were to pursue Bauer after their refusal to extend and subsequent trade of Stroman, but I honestly don’t think that’s quite fair.
My sense has always been that the Jays didn’t particularly want to make Stroman their highest paid player and the focal point in the clubhouse, but that’s an easier choice to make with a veteran player when you’re an extremely young team in the middle of turning your roster over almost entirely. A Stroman trade was always going to be there to be made, and that fit well with what they were trying to do. There may have been concerns about “off-field aspects,” but that’s only part of the picture. So we can’t really say that they got rid of him for that specifically. Nor can we say that Bauer, despite being who he is, would necessarily engender the same concerns. For one thing, we know next to nothing about what these guys are actually like behind closed doors.
For another, the situation with the team has changed quite a bit since July 2019. Younger players are more established now. Ryu is there. Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling are there. A Bauer deal — which, believe me, I’m not endorsing — wouldn’t make him the long-term face of the franchise in nearly the same way.
The optics of it wouldn’t be great, obviously. On one hand you’d have a Black pitcher who is loud and online being shown the door, and on the other a loud and online white pitcher being welcomed with a nine-figure contract. The Jays would, and should, have to answer questions about this. But it’s just not quite that simple, I don’t think.
"The more I think about how the Jays can improve across all areas, the more I am selling myself on Realmulto as a free agent priority. My reasoning is that with our cache of catchers at both the major and minor league levels, we open up better trades by being able to part with someone like Kirk, who appears to be a guy a lot of teams are interested in. In a theoretical world where Kirk is a valid trade chip for us, do you think Cleveland would go for a Kirk/Groshans package for Lindor, or would a Lindor trade need someone with more major league experience?" -- Mike MacDougall
Well, I guess we know now that the package for Lindor (who I wrote about yesterday) wouldn’t take nearly that kind of quality in terms of prospects! Ugh. But as to the first part of your question, I was selling myself on Realmuto a bit when I was writing about Springer earlier, to be honest!
"I haven't seen his name come up at all and I know he's out for this season but any chance they try and bring Giles back on a two year deal like they did with Phelps a couple years ago? Give him a chance to rehab with the org and then see what happens." -- pistolpetestar
Giles certainly seemed to enjoy his time in Toronto, and he’s obviously a great pitcher when healthy, so I could see how there could be mutual interest in a deal like that. Thing is, I’m not sure it would be in his best financial interest to take it, especially given the state of the market this winter. The Jays would obviously want a pretty steep discount, and Giles would probably do better by betting on himself getting healthy and then throwing for teams next winter to show that the velocity is still there.
"Would you be ok signing Bauer if we also got cup holders?" -- Chill
Hahahaha. No, but maybe if they actually make it so all the seats face the damn infield.
"I had a weird dream that Charlie announced that Cavan Biggio will be the Jays version of Ben Zobrist. How do you see Cavan's role in 2021?" -- CaptainLatte
I think that would be the ideal plan, both for him and ultimately for the roster, but they’re going to need to find some more infielders before they can make it happen. Right now the Jays have Rowdy Tellez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base, Bo Bichette at short, and then Biggio for either second or third. Unless they’re planning on a preposterously early call-up for Jordan Groshans or Austin Martin — which I have absolutely no reason to believe they are — they’ll need to add at least a couple guys before Biggio could be shifted into more of a super-utility role.
Hey, Jonathan Villar is still out there. Anyone? Anyone?
"With a lot of SP guys like Kay, Hatch, Thornton, Borucki, etc., kicking around the roster, who do you think ends up in the ‘pen and who's likely to spend 2021 filling out the AAA rotation?" -- Player to Named Later
It’s a great question, because the Jays are certainly going to try to keep guys as starters for as long as they possibly can, which means they have a glut of Triple-A types. Based on the way Ross Atkins was talking at the end of last season, Borucki is basically a reliever already. I think Sean Reid-Foley has finally probably pitched his way out of a rotation spot and into the bullpen. I always thought there was a decent chance that Trent Thornton ended up a multi-inning reliever, and with the elbow trouble he experience last year, I wonder if the Jays take the same route with him as they seem to be with Borucki and move him to the ‘pen a little earlier than others.
Really, for me the wild card is Julian Merryweather. I'd love to see him be able to stay healthy and get a real chance as a starter, and while I think he'll at least get spring training to give it a shot, I think he may fall into the same category as Borucki and possibly Thornton. Either way, he'll be in the big leagues, because he's out of minor league options.
I'm totally guessing here, and there are definitely people out there who give these particular things more thought than I do, but I'd think Buffalo's rotation coming out of camp will likely include Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, and Patrick Murphy. Beyond that, probably Jacob Waguespack and T.J. Zeuch.
That being the case, I guess at this point I'd have Thornton and Merryweather in the big leagues as relievers, along with Borucki, Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Shun Yamaguchi and Ross Stripling. And the starters, of course, would be Hyun Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Tanner Roark, Nate Pearson, and someone not currently in the organization.
Obviously that could — and should — change somewhat by the time camp opens, and I certainly might be forgetting someone too!
"Given the injury and/or inconsistency concerns with all of the team's current projected starting pitchers, are you comfortable with the team rolling the dice and signing multiple rebound candidates (Quintana, Paxton, Kluber) and trying to get full-ish seasons out of 3 starters combined with partial seasons from 4? Is this a viable fallback plan in the event they can't sign Bauer or Sugano, or complete a trade for starting pitcher?" -- noopi
I think that’s pretty unlikely. They just don’t really have the rotation opportunities that those guys are going to be looking for. They basically already have four starters locked in, and while they could maybe try to convince someone that Nate Pearson will be starting the year in Buffalo or that Robbie Ray is slated for the bullpen, I don’t think they’d get very far with that. So whoever they add had better be good, or they’d better feel confident in his health.
Also, they already have a bounce back candidate in Tanner Roark, and that’s plenty for my taste.
"If Springer accepts the offer that the Jays have extended him, what do you think happens with the rest of the outfield? I'm a big fan of both Teo and Gurriel (Lourdes in particular!) and I'd love for the Jays to find a way to keep them both, but it's hard to deny that they could be the key to acquiring some pitching. Any chance that Grichuk and his 10M a year are on the move instead, or would the return for that just not be good enough?" -- jimboknows
“Hey! So nice having you back! Question: You sign Springer (sure, maybe, whatever...it’s a hypothetical) but you can’t unload Grichuk (for the obvious reason that no one wants him). What’s your preferred strategy with Grich, Lourdes and Teo? Who stays, goes, plays?” — Dunedin Dave
These two are basically the same question, so I’ll put them both together here. For me, and I think for most teams with championship aspirations, Grichuk’s best role would be as a fourth outfielder. I’m sure that’s not how he sees it though. But I think that with Springer’s need for maintenance days, the injury histories of both Gurriel Jr. and Hernández, and the club’s tendency to rotate players in and out of the lineup based on match-ups, there would probably be a reasonable number of at-bats there for him if they went that route.
That said, spending $10 million (technically $9,333,333 plus a $1 million bonus he’s due April 1) on a fourth outfielder wouldn’t be the greatest use of resources. I think you’re right that he wouldn’t fetch much on the trade market, because that contract has negative value at this point. The most likely scenario would be that Gurriel — who is owed just $13.4 million over the next three years total, and is therefore a very attractive player to other teams — gets moved and Grichuk shifts to left field. But I’m with you, jimboknows, in a perfect world they find a way to not have to do that.
"I expect all of the top FAs to tell the Jays to FO. So my question is a two-parter: 1. Why am I so pessimistic? 2. Not that he's THE answer, but why haven't we resigned a known-ish commodity in Taijuan?
PS. So stoked to have you in my inbox (or as I like to call it, my love cubby)" -- Christ on a Bike
Happy to be in your, uh, cubby my man. As to your questions, first of all, I’d imagine you’re pessimistic because in order to be a Jays fan one must dance with virtually unceasing disappointment. Second of all, I’d imagine Walker hasn’t signed anywhere yet because the pitching market hasn’t really been set yet. Once Trevor Bauer lands somewhere the teams that missed on him will turn their attention to the next tier of available starters, and then we’ll see some movement there. Right now the offers probably just aren’t there for him. But I agree that it would be great to see him return to the Blue Jays.
“So, assuming the FAs don't want our money, for whatever reason, how good is this team?” — Beau
Hi Beau! They wouldn’t be bad, but they’d be in tough to make the playoffs unless MLB does them a favour and expands the field to 16 teams again. I used the tweet below in yesterday’s post about the Mets adding Lindor, but I think it’s worth looking at again.
The Jays are eighth in the American League by projected WAR, which is good enough for now to put them in the Wild Card mix along with Anaheim, Chicago, Cleveland, Oakland, and the Rays. But it’s a pretty precarious spot, because those teams are mostly still looking to add, too. (Except maybe the dogshit organization in Cleveland.)
It could still be a pretty fun year if they somehow strike out this winter, but adding another projected 10 wins or so — which seems like it’s doable — would make a world of difference.
“How much is the lack of clarity on where the Jays will play this year impacting the ability to bring in key free agents?” — Andrew
That’s hard to say, because virtually none of the top free agents have signed so far. But I think they’re in a better spot with Dunedin as their most likely non-Toronto destination that they would be if they were going back to Buffalo. If they have to spend a good chunk of their season at their spring training site, players will at least be in more familiar environs, it will be an area where a free agent addition may want to buy a home anyway, and the club’s fancy new state-of-the-art training complex is right there. Hopefully it’s more when you bring a third city into the mix that players will start to balk at the idea, so it might not be as much of an issue as we fear.
“How big a concern is Springer's already declining defense in CF? Obviously he's still a no brainer but does it factor in to a theoretical offer? Do the Jays still have interest in a guy like JBJ even if they land him? Where else can they improve on defense?” — Dan Grant
As I mentioned above, Springer’s defence has actually ticked back upwards over the last couple seasons. Long-term it’s still definitely a concern, but as I also said, they may only want him to be out there for a season or two anyway. I think Jackie Bradley Jr. is a fallback option they may look at if they don’t sign Springer (though they certainly wouldn’t pay him as though they expect him to continue to hit at the 119 wRC+ pace he did in 2020), but I’d have a hard time seeing them add both with Grichuk, Hernández, Gurriel Jr., and Jonathan Davis already on the roster.
The other places they can upgrade defensively are at second and third base. Bringing in someone like Kolten Wong to play second would be game-changing on the defensive side of the ball, and wouldn’t kill them from an offensive standpoint. That would likely make Cavan Biggio the primary third baseman, which is not his greatest position (he was -2 DRS and -1 UZR there in just 81 innings in 2020), but maybe they find a third baseman as well and really turn Biggio into the Ben Zobrist type we were talking about earlier. I’d be all for it, personally.
“Why has James Paxton not been mentioned as one of the potential candidates for the Blue Jays? And what about Chris Archer? Or Cory Kluber? As far as Sugano goes, I'd rather go with these guys along with someone like Taijuan Walker.” — Marshall Auerback
The issue with Paxton is, unfortunately, that injuries really seem to be catching up to him. According to a Jon Morosi tweet, there were 20 teams in attendance at a showcase he put on in December, but during it he only “reached” 94 mph on his fastball. That’s better than the 92.1 mph he averaged during his rough 20 1/3 innings of work in 2020, but still about where he was maxing out. He used to throw harder, having hit 100 mph at least once in 2019, and regularly topping out in the 97 or 98 mph range.
He and Archer (who was awful in 2019 and then didn’t pitch in 2020 because of surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome) are better candidates for rebuilding teams than one that actually expects to challenge for a playoff spot. Unless, of course, they aren’t able to find a way to add anybody else.
Kluber intrigues me, though, and we learned recently that the Jays tried to acquire him a year ago but refused to part with Alejandro Kirk to make it happen. There’s probably interest there again. Though, as I said above, I have a hard time seeing them find a way to add both him and someone like Walker with four rotation spots pretty much already locked up. It would likely have to be one or the other.
“The Jays hate to give up a draft pick. Is it possible that signing two or three FA's attached to draft pick compensation this year would be the way to go?” — Jay M
The Jays are hardly the only team that thinks that way, but yes, it could be a strategy to load up on free agents in one big go. But don’t forget that the penalties for signing free agents aren’t as bad as they used to be. As a team that doesn’t receive revenue sharing and isn’t over the luxury tax, they’d have to give up their second pick in the draft plus $500,000 of international bonus pool money if they signed someone who rejected his former club’s qualifying offer. They’d give up their third round pick as well if they signed more than one of those guys. It’s a big hit, but definitely not as bad as the days when teams had to kiss their top draft pick goodbye.
“First time caller long time listener. Q: If the Jays do go out and do something crazy like signing Trevor Bauer, where's that leave us as Jays fans who aren't fans of all the MAGA horseshit baggage he brings? Do we begrudgingly learn to like him? In that introductory press conference is there any chance he turns a new leaf and talks about how he's a different man? Or do we just sit on our hands making a sour face every 5 days for however many years when our ace pitches?” — Matt E
It’s a great question, but one that I can’t really answer for anyone. Or even for myself, really. Covering the team is my job, so I can’t exactly turn the TV off no matter who is pitching. But if that weren’t the case I’d possibly be thinking about doing just that.
So yeah. I don’t know. Let’s maybe just cross that bridge when we get there and hope in the meantime that we steer clear of it.
Hi Andrew. I missed this week’s mailbag but I’m now a paid subscriber! Please look to address where the heck the front office is on potentially extending some of the young core. Other teams have done it well. I know it takes two to tango but for a group that loves cost certainty, shouldn’t that be an objective of the front office each off season?