Mail bag: Lockout schmockout
On the catching log jam, José Ramírez, other trade talk, new Guerreros, front office leaks, Cavan Biggio, CBA stuff, Robinson Canó (?), my stupid knee, and more!
With MLB’s lockout in full effect it seems as though it’s going to be a long, cold, lonely winter. It also seems like years since we’ve been here, about to open up the ol’ mail bag. But, in fact, it’s actually only been two months since we last did one of these. And while I suspect that a few months from now that interval is going to seem absurdly large — expect more mail bags in the coming months, because… what the hell else is there going to be to do around here? — for now it simply means that there’s a whole lot of fresh-ish offseason meat to still gnaw into. So let’s get a-gnawin’!
But first, I’d like to say that , as usual, I could barely get all of your questions in before running into Substack’s post length limit, so thank you so much to everybody who submitted one and my apologies for not being able to get to them all. And thank you especially to those who subscribe, and those have been able to pay to do so.
⚾ Speaking of which, before we get going, please indulge me while I attempt to make a living. Because if you’ve been sent here by a friend, or you are an existing subscriber who would like to move to a paid membership so you can comment, ask questions the next time I open up the ol’ mail bag, or just plain old support what I do, click below to upgrade or become a subscriber — paid or otherwise. I will be eternally grateful if you do! ⚾
Hi Andrew, if the Jays don’t ultimately trade a catcher, how do you think they will allocate playing time among Jansen, Kirk, McGuire and Moreno (including at Buffalo)? — Winnipeg Jays Fan
Thanks for the question man. We’ll start here because it’s a tough one. Clearly there isn’t going to be room for all three of Jansen, Kirk, and McGuire on the big league roster. But I think last spring we were given a pretty good indication of how the Jays will handle such a situation should it rise again.
A year ago the club chose Kirk over McGuire to start the season, despite the fact that McGuire was out of options and needed to go through waivers to be sent to Buffalo. Ultimately he cleared, wound up back in the big leagues by the start of May, and ended up carving out a nice little role for himself (with the help of long-term injuries to Kirk and Jansen) that kept him in the big leagues the rest of the year.
But the thing is, to paraphrase Dennis Green, it turns out that McGuire pretty much is who we thought he was. He rode a .417 BABIP and a surprising seven extra-base hits to a 138 wRC+ in June, then followed that up with a 40 mark in July, 84 in August, and -55 in September (though he only managed 15 plate appearances that month). McGuire did show a bit of pop in his first two big league stints, in 2018 (.581 SLG in 33 PA) and 2019 (.526 SLG in 104 PA), and if anybody in the front office believes that was real the Jays might have a difficult decision on their hands. But I doubt they do.
McGuire’s 2020 and 2022 were a reality check, dropping his career big league slash line to .248/.297/.390 over 399 plate appearances, which is actually probably still generous for a guy who has slashed just .239/.314/.350 over 646 PA in Triple-A.
I still like McGuire's glove and could absolutely see the Jays holding onto him all spring and trying to squeeze him through waivers again. But I still think he's the odd man out. I just don't see much separation between him and the Caleb Josephs and Juan Graterols of the world, who you can pick up for nothing at virtually any point on the calendar. (Graterol, by the way, slashed .293/.355/.359 for Buffalo in 2021).
So I think they’ll start the year with Jansen and Kirk in the majors, and Moreno and McGuire (or someone similar) in Buffalo. And how they eventually get Moreno to the big leagues without an injury to the other two I think has been answered by the fact that they were experimenting with him at third base in the Arizona Fall League last month.
The idea there isn’t to ultimately make him a third baseman — though I think fans can be forgiven for seeing the hype about his bat and thinking that maybe he’s too good to risk at a high-attrition position like catcher — but to add some versatility to his game that will allow the Jays to get him into the lineup in more creative ways. For example, maybe an outfielder gets hurt, and instead of making a like-for-like call-up, they bring up Moreno and shift whoever is at third over to second and have Biggio or Espinal play in the outfield, which is something we’ve seen them both do before.
Of course, these things tend to work themselves out, and if the Jays need to find a way to force Moreno into the lineup that will be a very good problem to have. More likely someone gets hurt or someone underperforms and that opens the door. (I’d suggest here that it could be Kirk who fits the latter bill, because he does have minor league options remaining, but, interestingly, Steamer's projections have him as posting a 125 wRC+ in 2022, which ranks 35th out of the 3,052 big league hitters, and is one point ahead of both George Springer and Bo Bichette — and five ahead of Marcus Semien. I might take the under on that one, Steamer! But what it means is that more objective measures than I possess clearly like Kirk's bat a whole lot still. Hey, and maybe that’s a selling point on the trade market!)
Hi Stoeten, here’s a random one for you. It strikes me as a little odd that both of the Springer and Berríos signings were broken on Twitter by somewhat lesser known baseball writers (no disrespect to BKuh, who, since that signing is much less, uh, lesser known).
Do you think Shapiro/Atkins/someone else in the organization choose to intentionally leak big news to up and coming baseball writers for…some reason? Maybe to develop relationships with the next generation of baseball writers/reporters and hopefully curry favour from them and get more positive coverage? Am I going crazy thinking of things like this in the absence of actual baseball news? (Don’t answer that last one).
Also, not a question but a sincere thank you from me for never letting people forget that as great as the Jays’ new Spring Training facility is, it was still largely paid for by taxpayers and not the multi-billion dollar corporation that owns them. I understand that’s how these things typically work, but it doesn’t mean it should be.
Cheers — Josh
Hey man, thanks so much for the kind words and the questions. I especially appreciate that you’ve noticed how I mention the way that fancy new player development complex came about, because I think it’s definitely important to remember. Specifically, Tampa’s ABC Action News reported in February 2020 that “about $41.7 million came from Pinellas County's tourist development taxes, another $13.7 million came from the state of Florida and more than $6 million came from Dunedin's city budget. The Blue Jays chipped in $40 million.”
As for the stuff about leaks, you’re not crazy for having your mind wander to such things at this point. (I know you asked me not to answer that, but I had to!) Beyond that, first I should be clear that I don’t know where those are coming from and haven’t talked to Brendon or anyone else about their sources. That said, I definitely don’t suspect it’s from the baseball side of things, or that they are strategic in any way.
I say that because it seems to me — though I’d have to do some research to be sure — that those leaks tend to only come about on big financial moves, like Berríos and Springer, and less so when it comes to trades. There have also been leaks to @bluejayhotstove about the Jays’ return to Canada and their increase in capacity last fall. Hot Stove also had some information on the Jays’ potential budget for next season, which I wrote about back in October, and found potentially credible — which certainly seems to have been the case, given the money the Jays have already handed out (and are reported to have been offering) so far this winter.
Those are all things that likely have to be run through Rogers, and so combined with the quiet on moves that are more easily kept in-house by the Jays, I’d guess that these leaks are more likely to be coming out of 1 Mount Pleasant than 1 Blue Jays Way. Why someone there would be sharing this stuff, I have no idea. But I also think that it maybe would be harder for the Jays to nip it in the bud if it’s someone not under their direct purview. So that kind of tracks, too.
That doesn’t mean anyone claiming to have inside information should be treated as credible, obviously. Personally, I still recommend waiting until Passan confirms something before believing it. But I can’t deny there’s a thrill to knowing stuff before it’s out there more concretely, so I get why this happens — a big part of which is the fact that hot stove season is great! And while I assume this is low priority, I hope they do something in the new CBA to incentivize creating a flurry of transactions every year, much like the one we saw two weeks ago with the lockout deadline looming. Having the the world abuzz about splashy baseball deals is certainly a whole lot better than them coming out in dribs and drabs over the course of a months long grind for every last possible dollar saved.
Andrew, again, thanks for all your insights this past year. Hands down my favourite sports writer. I have a two part question about needs. Firstly, in your eyes, where do you think the Jays biggest need currently is? Secondly, I’m curious to know your thoughts on what it would take to acquire either Jose Ramirez or Ketel Marte? And is it worth it? Thanks again. I hope you had some restful downtime with your friends. — Steve D.
Hey Steve, thanks so much for the question and the kind words. My time down south was great, though it would have been better if not for my having dislocated my kneecap on the second damn night! Lol.
As for your question, I think an infielder is now clearly the Jays’ biggest need. Sure, they could use another starter, but Berríos, Gausman, Ryu, Manoah, and Stripling/Pearson/etc. is a pretty good base to build from. They could also use more relief help, but I think Arden Zwelling’s recent piece on Yimi Garcia is pretty reassuring about the state of the bullpen, which right now includes Garcia (a potential weapon in Arden’s view — or at least his view of the Jays’ view), Jordan Romano, Tim Mayza, Adam Cimber, Trevor Richards, plus David Phelps on a minor league deal, and a bunch of intriguing younger options. But if the season started today they’d have Cavan Biggio at second and Santiago Espinal at third, and that just really is not good enough.
The Jays need help at either second or third, and ideally it would be help that can hit from the left side. That limits the possibilities somewhat, which is why you and several others mentioned both the Guardians’ José Ramírez and the Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte.
What would it take to land those guys? Well, first of all, desire from their teams to actually trade them. Unfortunately, that may not exist until at least the trade deadline — or potentially longer in Marte’s case, as he has team-friendly club options for both 2023 and 2024.
Cleveland went 80-82 in 2021 despite Shane Bieber making just 16 starts, Aaron Civale making only 21, and Zach Pleasac having a bit of a lost year after what looked like a breakout in the shortened 2020 season. In the AL Central, with those guys back and a superstar like Ramírez in the fold, they may just be in “if things break right we can be in it” territory. Plus, in the first year of a long overdue rebrand the Guardians may not be so inclined to punch their fan base in the gut before the season even starts — though that would mean taking a risk that Ramírez is still healthy at the trade deadline, which their former colleagues in the Jays’ front office could tell them a thing or two about re: Josh Donaldson.
With the emergence of the Giants to go along with the powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West, the Diamondbacks definitely seem farther away from contention than the Guardians are. But that doesn’t mean they’re necessarily going to be inclined to tear it all down either.
“This isn’t a situation, for me, where we are relying on a series of top-five draft picks to get us back into a position where we should be,” GM Mike Hazen told reporters back in October. MLBTR’s recent Offseason Outlook piece on the D-Backs included quotes to that effect from other executives as well. And with Marte still under club control for three seasons, it’s not like they’re going to be in a rush to move him.
But OK, let’s say they are willing to make a deal. What would a trade potentially look like? The best way to figure that out, I think, is to think of some similar deals. One that doesn’t quite fit the bill but jumps immediately to mind is a transaction Jays fans will be very familiar with: Oakland trading four years of Josh Donaldson for three years of Brett Lawrie, plus Franklin Barreto, Sean Nolin, and Kendall Graveman.
Now, Jays fans would obviously do that trade again in a heartbeat. Even if we forget how poorly the players they traded away would fare in Oakland, Donaldson was so good and so important to such great teams that it doesn’t really matter. But if we focus on the shape of the deal, rather than the specific players, it’s probably not as much of a slam dunk as it immediately feels. Lawrie was a post-hype prospect with a lot of questions about his ability to hit and to stay healthy — and lay off the Red Bull — but this was a legit big leaguer heading into his age-25 season who some thought at the time would provide far more value on a dollars-per-WAR basis than Donaldson. It didn't quite work out that way, obviously. But Oakland liked Lawrie as a cheap replacement for Donaldson with theoretical upside, and also landed an MLB-ready starter (Graveman), an interesting Triple-A arm (Nolin), and a top 100 prospect (Barreto).
A more instructive trade to look at, I think, even though it involves a player of another position, is the Phillies’ acquisition of J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins in February 2019. At the time Realmuto was coming off of back-to-back years of about 4.5 WAR — less than what Ramírez has done, but at a position where elite talent is more scarce, and on a cheaper salary. Like Ramírez, he had two years of control left, but those were arbitration years that ended up paying him about $16 million in total. Ramírez will make $24 million over the next two seasons. Those will be his age-29 and age-30 seasons, making him slightly older than Realmuto, who was heading into his age-28 year at the time of the trade. Still, if you squint hard enough I think you can see some general similarities.
So, what did the Marlins get? Well, first of all they got a Lawrie-esque like-for-like piece, catcher Jorge Alfaro. A post-hype prospect (he’d ranked as high as number 31 on the top 101 at Baseball Prospectus earlier in his career), Alfaro struggled as a 25-year-old in 2018 after a rather loud 29 game cameo at the end of the 2017 season. As with Lawrie, there was upside, and there there was much less salary due to him. (Also like Lawrie, though less spectacularly, it really hasn't worked out since.)
The bigger piece, however, was very highly rated young pitcher Sixto Sánchez, who was a consensus top 25 prospect heading into 2019, and as high as number 13 according to Baseball America. Sánchez had clear upside at the time, and until his 2021 was derailed by a shoulder injury he delivered on that, getting as high as the number 6 prospect for BA and number 4 for BP heading into 2021. (TINSTAAPP, friends!)
If we’re talking about current Jays equivalents that’s maybe something like Cavan Biggio, Nate Pearson, and Naswell Paulino — though I’d certainly say that feels awfully light.
For whatever it’s worth, the trade simulator at Baseball Trade Values would require adding both Alejandro Kirk and one of Orelvis Martinez or Jordan Groshans to that package for the Jays to maybe land Ramírez. For Marte, however, who despite being younger and having an extra year of control is viewed as less valuable than Ramírez presumably because of his less stellar track record and the fact that he only played 90 games in 2021, adding Kevin Smith and Reese McGuire gets you the green light.
Does that mean the Jays could do either of those deals right now? Absolutely not! For one thing, that’s four players who would need 40-man spots on their new teams, which would mean subtracting even more value from Cleveland or Arizona’s point of view. For another, I wouldn’t imagine the gulf between Marte and Ramírez is really quite that big. Plus, the market is going to obviously have the ultimate say if these teams actually start shopping either of these guys. Other teams would have the opportunity to make better offers.
I’m obviously guessing, but I’d tend to think that you’re not getting either without including someone like Martinez or Groshans, especially since these don’t appear to be especially motivated sellers. If I’m Cleveland, I’d have to have a good think about a Martinez/Pearson/Smith offer, and I think the Jays could maybe live with that, too.
Hell, I could even throw in Kirk, but that’s just because I’m thinking like a fan and believe Ramírez would be an exceptional fit here.
In reality these types of deals usually include more lottery ticket guys from the low minors. In the ones I’m spitballing there would be a lot of big-league-ready talent being shed by the Jays. That’s probably unlikely. But in terms of value, it’s probably something near what they would be looking at having to give up.
And yeah, I’d do it.
I would love if the Jays could score a trade for Jose Ramirez or Matt Chapman, but do you think a package with Kirk and Gurriel Jr as the headliners (that seems to be the package I hear the most talked about — along with picks and/or a lower prospect or two) would really be enough to get it done? — Christ on a Bike
I guess I answered this already, but no, I definitely do not. Yet there are still a couple things worth addressing from your question, and thanks for asking it man!
First of all, while Gurriel’s name has definitely been out there, I think the fact that we learned this fall that he will not be arbitration eligible once his initial contract expires completely changes the way we have to think about him as a trade piece. Previously it was believed that he had three years of club control left, but it turns out it’s only two. Not a huge difference superficially, but for a team that’s trading away a star player and looking toward the future, years of control matter a whole lot. Maybe if we’re talking about the A’s here, who could use help in the outfield and seem to always try to stay competitive even after trading star players, he could make some sense. But a team in full tear-down mode won’t see as much value in a guy who is going to be gone just as they are (hopefully) starting to turn the corner.
The other thing is the idea of trading picks, which is something that MLB teams can’t do. Which is dumb! They should be allowed to do that! Every other league on this continent manages to do it just fine. And while I’m sure it’s a low priority issue in the ongoing CBA negotiations, I think it would be a good move for the league if teams came out of the other side of this thing with the ability to do so!
J-Ram AND Bieber from the Guardians. What would it take to get this done? — Joe N.
Several executives’ first born children. (And yeah, I’d do it.)
Loving the Vladdy Jr sibling content I'm seeing. What does the International signing process look like and how quickly can Shapiro and Atkins get more large adult sons into the Blue Jays org? — Rob
Thanks for the question Rob. I know you also had one about the Ramírez/Marte stuff, which I hope I’ve answered satisfactorily above. As for the new Guerreros that just dropped, for those who missed it we’re talking about 15-year-old Pablo…
… and 15-year-old Vladi Miguel.
These are obviously a couple of very talented, very intriguing, uh… children. And one of the many unseemly things about MLB’s talent procurement system in Latin America is that the fact that these kids are already 15 means it’s very likely they have handshake agreements in place with big league clubs already.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported back in May of 2019 that “at least four players from the 2021-22 signing period struck deals with teams as 13-year-olds, according to sources familiar with the agreements, and the majority of elite players are committed to teams at 14.”
While I’m reluctant to give clicks to Zombie Deadspin, back before the staff of that site resigned en masse, Marc Normandin wrote an excellent piece on the troubles with MLB’s current system and why the league’s insistence that an international draft would fix things is (surprise surprise!) completely disingenuous. It’s worth a read.
How would Trevor Story look at 3rd? Could he pull a Semien? Nice to have a backup for Bo with pedigree. Not left-handed, but power and defence. How about 1 year, $25 million show me contract? Save the prospects! — Jay M.
Hmm. Well, seeing as MLBTR ranked Story the eighth best free agent out there this winter — ahead of Scherzer, Stroman, Castellanos, Báez, Marte, etc. — and predicted a six-year, $126 million contract for him, I don’t think your contract proposal there is going to come close to getting it done.
The thing about Story is that his defensive value at short is so high that he was worth 3.5 WAR in 2021 according to FanGraphs despite being just a league average hitter (100 wRC+). So, if he doesn’t bounce back — though there’s reason to believe he will, given (as MLBTR points out) he ended the season strongly after being dogged for much of the year by trade rumours and elbow inflammation (plus he had an absurdly low .235 BABIP away from Coors Field) — you also lose a ton of his value by moving him off of short. Not a great situation! And when you add in the fact that he hits from the right side, as you noted, I just don’t think it’s an ideal fit.
That said, if his market craters and later in the offseason he starts looking around for that one-year show me contract you’re talking about, like Semien last winter, I’d absolutely think the Jays should be interested. He’s just not a guy I’d really want to see them go out and pursue for third base at the expected market price.
Do you think a healthy Cavan Biggio is a lock for the opening day roster this season? Or has he become a fringe player that may get pushed aside by someone like Otto Lopez? — John M.
I think there’s a chance that Biggio is more of a fringe player by the end of the season, depending on his performance obviously, but I think the Jays are going to give him all kinds of opportunity to prove that 2021 was an aberration. And there’s reason to believe that it really was, because Biggio was banged up from the start, and repeatedly over the course of the year.
I’ve written about some of the concerns in his profile before, but there were things about his 2021, even though it was an unsuccessful season for him, that maybe bode well going forward. His average exit velocity was the highest of his career, as was his maximum exit velocity. He did a much better job of using the whole field — important, I think, because of how susceptible he is to the shift — bringing his percentage of opposite field batted balls up from 20.8% in 2020 to 30.5%. Against fastballs he produced a better expected slugging percentage and about the same expected wOBA as in 2020 — though that's perhaps indicative of some flukiness in his 2020 season, as that year he produced a .453 SLG on an xSLG of .358, and a .360 wOBA on a .319 xwOBA.
Still, while I don’t think anybody should be putting him in the same breath as Vlad or Bo anymore, he can still potentially be a very useful player and maybe more than that. The fact that he has elite plate discipline and hits from the left side will help him get chances in this lineup, and hopefully that’s all it takes to get him back on track — provided he’s back to full health. It won’t hurt to get him back to a position like second base where he’s likely more comfortable, too.
I may not exactly be betting on him becoming the guy a lot of Jays fans thought a couple years ago that he was going to become, but I wouldn’t bet against him, either.
As for opening day, I definitely assume for now that he and Santiago Espinal will be sharing either second or third base — which could work! Espinal seems a rather good platoon-mate for Biggio because of his right-handedness, strong defence, and the fact that he did as decent a job of hitting 96+ mph velocity in 2021 (.389 wOBA) as Biggio did a poor one (.131 wOBA). If they’re not used as a strict left-right platoon, and if Espinal gets some additional action against harder-throwing starters and as a late-inning defensive replacement, I think their spot could end up being a net positive for the club.
Hey Andrew. Really appreciate the work you and Nick have done over the last year. This might be a completely bird-brained idea, but I've been fixated on it all offseason. I want Robinson Canó to be a Blue Jay, so bad.
Sure his contract looks terrible, with 2 years/roughly $48 mil remaining. But getting rid of Grich somewhere could offset that. So what if Canó is a middle infielder pushing 40? And who cares if just a couple weeks ago he was pulled from a winter league game for back discomfort? Maybe that that just means the Mets will retain some salary (though for some reason I can't imagine Cohen operating like that). The Jays, for vibes alone, need an old man who can mash.
Of course this will never happen, but at least asking this question puts the idea out into the ether. Who knows what internal Blue Jays people are mining your Substack for fresh ideas. Do you have any interest in pushing this idea along? — Pat
Thanks so much for the kind words. I just wish my next words were going to be kinder to the idea of the Jays going after Canó!
Canó had his worst season since 2008 in 2019 (94 wRC+, highest strikeout rate of his career, lowest batting average, just a 5.9% walk rate, just 13 HR in 107 games) then "bounced back" over 49 games in 2020 after which he tested positive for Stanozolol and was suspended for a year. He turned 39 in October. He makes $24 million in each of the next two seasons.
The 142 wRC+ Canó produced in the shortened 2020 season was the fourth highest of his 16 year big league career, and his best since 2013. So… is that encouraging or suspicious?
It’s impossible to gauge just how much Canó was helped by the PEDs, but honestly even without that little wrinkle I’d probably want nothing to do with that contract at this point, especially after a full year off. With it? Definitely not.
Plus, with the signing of Starling Marte and Mark Canha to play the Mets outfield alongside Brandon Nimmo, I don’t think they have a need for Grichuk — whereas they could much more easily find a way to see if Canó has got something left at second base or DH (which will almost certainly be coming to the National League in 2022). So, yeah. Not seeing it, unfortunately. Not that you were seeing it either. I just don’t want to see it. I do get the appeal, though. He was a great, fun player for a long time.
If you were GM, how important would you consider the need to get the lineup to be more left-handed ? And if you considered it a priority, how would you do it? — Player to be Named Later
I think simply having good hitters is the most important thing, really. The three teams that had the fewest LHB vs. RHP plate appearances in baseball last year were the Jays, Yankees, and Astros. The three teams that scored the most runs in baseball last year were the Astros, Rays, and Jays. If your right-handed hitters are good enough, you don't necessarily need lefty hitters to balance things out.
But obviously adding an elite left-handed bat couldn't hurt! Especially since the Jays themselves have acknowledged that some of the team's struggles in "late and close" situations — in high leverage situations the Jays' wRC+ dropped to 102 (ranked 11th) from a mark of 113 (ranked 2nd) overall — were due to the fact that they had too many similar hitters that made it easier for opponents to match up with and attack them.
I think the fact that Corey Seager hits from the left side was certainly one of the reasons the Jays reportedly made a big push for him, but I think the bigger factor is simply that he’s an incredibly talented player hitting free agency despite not turning 28 until April. I’d say something similar about Freddie Freeman, who we’ve also heard the Jays have interest in.
But beyond the good Seager, who obviously has already signed with Texas, there really aren’t a lot of high-end lefty free agents who make much sense for the Jays, honestly. Freeman? Anthony Rizzo? Kyle Schwarber? They’d have to move some pieces to make moves for those guys work, and that would still leave them with Biggio and Espinal starting on the infield.
Seager’s older brother Kyle hits from the left side too, plays third, and is a free agent, but I kind of want nothing to do with him. There are some real Randal Grichuk vibes there, in that he has a good glove and will he’ll hit some mistakes out but that’s about all you get. Like Grichuk, there are years when it works better than others, but overall it’s not great. He’s got a 101 wRC+ over 2,641 PA since the start of 2017, with a slash line of .231/.304/.436. Grichuk over that same span has a 97 wRC+ over 2,308 PA, slashing .242/.289/.463.
I think the Jays need to aim higher, even if it means adding another right-handed hitter in an everyday role and looking to find a lefty to come of the bench instead.
Hiya Andrew, what does the future hold for Espinal? Sounds like the Jays may be trying to upgrade but he’s young, “controllable,” has decent numbers and a solid glove. — Mikey
I really like Espinal and thought last year was very encouraging. However, the .353 BABIP definitely is noticeable, and though maybe a little more power will eventually come, I tend to think what we saw in 2021 was probably just about his ceiling. Which isn't a bad thing! He was worth 2.2 WAR in just 246 plate appearances and has shown pretty clearly that he can be a useful big leaguer for a long time. There's something there. I just don't really envision it in an everyday role on a club with championship aspirations. I think he's an excellent guy to have on your bench or in a smaller role (like a platoon with Biggio), and if I was a rebuilding club the Jays were trying to trade with he is certainly a guy I'd look at as someone I could plug into my lineup every day right away, and possibly even coax more out of. But I think the Jays absolutely have to aim higher in terms of an everyday player at either second or third in 2022 and beyond.
What are your best 'out of left-field predictions'? I don't mean the position of course. Plenty of talk about the big FAs and the possible trades with Oakland, Cleveland, or even Miami.
Have you some sweet off-the-radar moves? Who might be a secret unlikely trade partner? Which FAs are people neglecting to talk about? — Fazmasherley
Thanks so much for the question, man. Thing is, your guess is pretty much as good as mine on this stuff. They wouldn’t be very under-the-radar if I had a ready answer here! There are a few intriguing ones that are out there that maybe haven’t been talked about enough — Schwarber, Seager, Seiya Suzuki, a trade with the Reds for Sonny Gray. It’s always interesting to think of teams that the Jays seem to make a habit of trading with, too. Of course, some of those are obvious ones, like the Reds, the Marlins, Guardians, and the Diamondbacks. Conversely, I’m not sure how they’d line up with the Brewers, Nationals, Astros, or Dodgers. But, honestly, I just don’t spend a lot of time thinking about the fantastical when it comes to this subject. The Freddie Freeman thing would be absolutely wild — and awesome — but I guess we all know about that now!
Hi Andrew, what's the best Christmas present the Blue Jays could give you once free agency and trading starts up again? Also, treat yourself to 'The Wax Pack' by Brad Balukjian - one of the best baseball books I've read. — OzRob
Thanks for the question man. And, oh wow, that book sounds as awesome as the cover art! I’ll definitely check it out. And for those who don’t know it, here’s part of the synopsis:
Balukjian followed this wildly absurd but fun-as-hell premise: he took a single pack of baseball cards from 1986 (the first year he collected cards), opened it, chewed the nearly thirty-year-old gum inside, gagged, and then embarked on a quest to find all the players in the pack.
On Balukjian’s trip in the summer of 2015, he spanned 11,341 miles through thirty states in forty-eight days. Actively engaging with his subjects, he took a hitting lesson from Rance Mulliniks, watched kung fu movies with Garry Templeton, and went to the zoo with Don Carman. In the process of finding all the players but one, he discovered an astonishing range of experiences and untold stories in their post-baseball lives. While crisscrossing the country, Balukjian retraced his own past, reconnecting with lost loves and coming to terms with his lifelong battle with obsessive-compulsive disorder.
Here’s a good list of independent bookstores in Canada if anybody wants to get themselves a copy.
As for your question, Rob, the answer is José Ramírez. Without a doubt, José Ramírez.
Andrew, let's forecast a bit on the lockout, potential outcomes and implications to the young Blue Jays core. Free agency is granted at six years playing time. The players are seeking a change to this that could result in a shorter window of player control. If shorter, this could be a hit for Jays contention window with Vlad, Bo, and others.
Not at all wanting to see an end to good times, but if this was potentially, say, shortened to four years of control, or five years, how does this play out for the Jays? Do they go in harder on opportunities now to open the window of contention? Do they simply accelerate and or pay more sign Vlad, Bo or Teo? And aside from strategy, how does this actually play out — would such a change have a graduated process, or would it be simply implemented, and applied to players in the middle of their service time/window?
Thanks for all your great writing. — Jonathan
Thanks so much for the questions and the kind words, man. I’m going to take your last question first, because I think that’s the one that’s hardest to answer, since it’s one of the many things the league and players can’t agree on at the moment. According to various reports, including one from the Associated Press on December 1, the league wants to either keep the existing free agent system “or change eligibility to age 29.5 rather than six years of major league service.” The players, on the other hand, are proposing to keep the existing system through next winter, then in offseasons of 2023-24 and 2024-25 would “make eligibility six years of service unless (a player has) five years of service and (is above) age 30.5, and then for (the) 2025-26 offseason and later, six years of service unless five years of service and age 29.5, whichever comes earlier.”
Vlad will have five years of service at the conclusion of the 2024 season, but he won’t be over 30.5 years of age by that point, so under the players’ proposal here nothing would change for him. He’s still be eligible for free agency after 2025. The same is true for Bo. And Teoscar, because he’s due to hit free agency after 2023 already, also wouldn’t be affected.
Thing is though, even if changes were to impact those players, and shorten the amount of control that the Jays have on them, I don’t think that would change much about how they approach this offseason. The window of contention is wide open, and they’re already going as hard as is practical after opportunities to succeed within it.
What happened to your leg? — Fazmasherley
Ugh. It was pretty innocuous, frankly. Just walking on some sand, turned to hear something someone behind me said, and my kneecap popped out. Happened to me when I was 18, too, so I at least kind of knew what to expect (i.e. severe pain until it gets popped back in, but immediate relief the moment it does). The ordeal came afterwards, really. It took forever for someone who knew what they were doing to come and pop it back in, then the hospital I ended up in claimed they didn’t work with the company I got insurance with, so they wanted me to pay for everything out of pocket, starting with an $800 USD x-ray. So I basically told them to fuck off and walked out. Spent the next day in a wheelchair, but was fortunately able to hobble around in a knee brace after that and enjoy some sun and the trip that my friend and whatever cryptocurrency he’s been doing well in had very generously paid for! Lol.
Thanks as always for your questions everyone! We’ll do this again soon, and I’ll try to provide as much content as I can during this stupid lockout, but I’m not going to pretend it’s going to be easy. If you have any suggestions for something you’d like me to tackle, please get in touch via email or leave a comment here! Thanks as always for your support.
⚾ Be sure to follow me on Twitter // Follow the Batflip on Facebook ⚾
Sorry about your knee man. I hope you are steadily on the mend. Maybe we'll see you around the clubhouse soon.
A trade with the Reds would be intriguing. I wonder who they'd want? If we go get another pitcher like Sonny Gray or Manaea I also wonder who gets bumped if Pearson joins the rotation? I can't see them trading him now that they have a chance to see what they have in him, but you never know.