Mail bag: On bullpen woes, extension talk, Manoah vs. SWR, prospect trades, Thomas Hatch, Vlad celebrations, and more!
Alek Manoah is about to make his major league debut. But you know what’s even more exciting than that? The fact that it’s mail bag time!
OK, maybe not. But still!
As usual, I could barely get all of your questions in before running into Substack’s post length limit, so thank you so much everybody. And thank you especially to those who subscribe, and those have been able to pay to do so.
Speaking of which, before we get going, please indulge me while I attempt to make a living. Because if you’ve been sent here by a friend, or you are an existing subscriber who would like to move to a paid membership so you can comment, ask questions the next time I open up the ol’ mail bag, or just plain old support what I do, click below to upgrade or become a subscriber. I will be eternally grateful if you do!
Now on to the questions! As always, I have not read any of Griff's answers.
My memory of Trent Thornton from 2019 are that he was a pretty solid starter most of the time, consistently got through innings and a couple of bad outings inflated his numbers a bit. Seems strange to me he’s not in the rotation at this point — Anthony Kay and potentially Ross Striping seem better suited to the bulk reliever role for now. Does the Jays approach with Thornton seem a bit strange to you? — Simon F.
Not really, to be perfectly honest. Your memory about Thornton’s 2019 is correct — he allowed two earned runs or fewer in 15 of his 29 appearances, and lasted at least five innings in all but one of those (in which he exited after 4 2/3), but had his overall numbers blown up be a handful of starts that went horribly awry — but there are other pieces to the puzzle here. Thornton missed pretty much all of 2020 due to injury, and his arm’s ability to hold up to the rigors of being a big league starter has always been in question somewhat. In 2018, before the Blue Jays acquired him, the Astros had him in the minors pitching routinely on extra rest. That’s one problem.
He also seems to have taken well to working out of the bullpen. Pitching coach Pete Walker discussed Thornton's role about a month ago, and while he didn't close the door on trying to have him start again, he was clearly enamored of what he saw from Thornton the reliever.
"He looks good out of the 'pen. His makeup actually fits the 'pen. When you look at him he kind of comes at you with arms and legs, a lot of moving parts to his delivery. In a short stint he's got some weapons to get you out. You can't really sit on one particular pitch. He throws strikes. He has the aggressive mindset of a reliever," Walker explained. "But I still think he has the stuff to start, so we're not going to move away from that at this point."
So, maybe we’ll see some sort of a change to the way he’s used in the near future? But with the Jays having turned to Alek Manoah in the rotation, with Thomas Hatch and Nate Pearson becoming options again soon, I think they figure Thornton is plenty useful where he is.
Why did we sign Semien? Or more specifically, did we sign him fully expecting him to play for us for one season only or was the plan to try and get sign him to a multi-year deal after the season. Given how well he's performing, I suspect that will be difficult (even more so if we need to play in Dunedin again next year). If it was always going to be a one year signing... why? Leadership? Waiting for younger prospects to develop? To send a message to other free agents? Just because he's a good player? — OzRob
No signing is ever about one thing, but he’s an excellent player with intangibles the team values and was willing to sign a contract that made sense for the Jays. I don’t think there was any grand plan beyond that. His play in 2021 was always going to determine what happens next for him more than anything else. So far he’s been great and worthy of an extension, and maybe the Jays will end up pursuing that — which would be great, and which they could definitely pull off if they want to (which is to say: there’s no need to worry about the Dunedin thing).
But maybe they won’t. Maybe they’re determined to go into next winter’s free agent market with as many dollars available to spend as possible, and every option open to them. That certainly seemed the case based on the way they played the pitching market.
We’ll just have to wait and see. In the meantime it’s great that they do have him. Is that not enough?
Should the Jays consider trading Semien at the deadline if we're in the same or a similar spot in the standings? — Thomas
Above .500, within striking distance of a wild card spot, and sitting on the fifth best run differential in the American League? Absolutely not. Take your chance and be happy to make him a qualifying offer in the winter.
Of course, that’s easy for me to say because I believe that by getting Springer back, getting out of Dunedin, (eventually) getting a break from their tough schedule, getting Manoah/Pearson/Hatch to the big leagues, and getting a few bodies off of the injured list, the Jays are poised to be quite a bit better over the season’s second two months than they have been over the first two.
Hey Andrew, great job speaking the truth and keep doing what you do, best Jays beat IMO. Let me start covering what we talked at great length last season that has spilled over to this season...over used Pen!!! Charlie and Shatkins got away with it in 20 as obviously it what a 60 game season; the same issue has taken its toll already and we're not in June. I mean the pen was tasked to mop up underwhelming starting pitching, it's unsustainable and this week it has exposed the Achilles of this team big time!! You will not and cannot win in the bigs with 3 starters, this ain't the post season. AAA is a place usually to keep depth players in tune, and lower ranks for pure development. We have reached the point, we need adequate starters, the chicken strips experiment, we need help!! — Matt Leger
Thanks so much for the kind words Matt, I hope my response here doesn’t change how you feel there. I’ll start off by saying that you’re obviously right that the bullpen has become an issue, and that it’s definitely connected to the fact that only three starters have been in any way reliable for the Jays so far this season. Where you lose me, other than the use of “Shatkins,” is with the presumption that any of this is by design.
Yes, there was an increased use of relivers last year, but that’s not a Charlie thing or a Blue Jays thing. That was because teams were allowed extra players on their active rosters. This year? Not sure if you’ve noticed but a lot of the Jays’ pitchers have been hurt so far.
Jays relievers have logged more innings as a group than most teams, but its far from the most taxed bullpen. The team has done a decent job, I think, of churning guys through Triple-A and the injured list, and being careful about workloads, considering the circumstances. The bigger problem right now is that they’re lacking quality options there, too. Romano and Chatwood can’t pitch all the innings, no matter how much fans want them to.
The roster is what it is. Yes, the Rays added a couple of bullpen arms via the trade market last week, but they did so by giving up a big league shortstop. It would be more difficult for the Jays to do that right now as they don’t really have have the luxury of moving a big league piece at the moment. You need two teams to make a trade happen, and most aren’t willing to start giving up talent for prospects at this stage of the season. The Jays can’t just snap their fingers and have healthy, big league-calibre pitchers materialize.
They also couldn’t sign a bunch of extra starters in the winter and tell them that they’d only play if seven guys ahead of them got hurt. I think it’s valid to say that they could have used signing one more starter, especially if they know they were going to bail at the first sign of trouble from Tanner Roark (though I don’t think anybody disagrees with the their decision to do so), but protecting opportunities for guys like Manoah, Pearson, and Hatch was surely in their mind as well. Roster construction really wasn’t the issue.
Their options beyond Ryu, Ray, and Matz this spring were plentiful. Roark, Pearson, Thornton, Stripling, Kay, Hatch, T.J. Zeuch. Maybe Julian Merryweather and Patrick Murphy, if they didn’t end up in the ‘pen. Maybe Tommy Milone if they got desperate.
Clearly right now none of those guys is the answer. But that’s just right now. Manoah is getting a shot this week and is an incredibly exciting prospect. Pearson and Hatch will get their chances soon. Kay will get a chance to get more work in with Buffalo. Stripling will soon be bumped back into a more suitable role. Relievers like Ryan Borucki, Merryweather, and Murphy will rejoin the mix. The season is 162 games long. Soon a stronger, deeper rotation that can pitch longer into games will settle into place. If it doesn’t do so through their internal options, in a month or so they’ll start looking to the trade market, and if by that point they’re not in close enough playoff contention to warrant making a big splash, well then the season just isn’t going to be as successful as we all hoped. That’s just sort of… how the sport works?
Hey Stoeten - still loving the blog and the podcast. Keep up the good work. What's your take on re-signing Marcus Semien? Do you think the Jays are interested, and can they get it done? Also, what's the deal with Schneider? When he was first promoted to the Jays, there was some guessing that he was the manager-in-waiting, with Montoyo as the bridge from Gibby to Schneider. Is he still a manager-in-waiting? — CrazyCatTim
Thanks for your kind words man! I think I covered your Semien question above. As for Schneider, if Montoyo were ever to get fired mid-season — keep dreaming! — I could imagine that Schneider would get real consideration to be the interim manager, and maybe would even end up with the job permanently. But I don’t think they’re sitting around waiting to flip the switch, if that’s what you mean. Maybe I’m wrong on that, because I’m just entirely guessing, but I’d very much hesitate to put the “manager in waiting” tag on him.
A guy that the organization obviously values a lot? For sure. He was the manager of some of their core pieces at multiple stops up the chain and has since graduated to the big leagues with them. They definitely like him. They might even have a tough decision to make some day, if another team were to offer Schneider their own top job. I just don’t see any evidence why we should put him in a special category above all that.
You receive a call at 12:22AM that you’ll be 3B umpire for tomorrow’s Jays matinee. How does that go? — AB
Abysmally. I’ve never umpired before, and that shit is hard! There are a lot of rules, and there’s a lot that has to be learned to be in the right position at the right time to make the right call. Can I use Google??? Even if so, it would be a disaster.
Andrew, your blog and podcast have understandably focussed to some extent on Manoah and his excellent recent performance. However, all the prospect lists have SWR rated significantly better than Manoah. Is his potential that much higher than Manoah’s? — Paul
A couple important things about the lists you’re talking about here. First, I don’t think anybody has Woods Richardson as significantly better than Manoah, to be honest. Not all top prospect lists discuss this, or make it obvious, but you really need to think about prospects on them in tiers, and remember that the lower the tier, the less rare the talent is. So, the farther down the list you go, the bigger each tier gets, meaning that the difference between the number one ranked player and the 50th ranked player is much, much bigger than the difference between the guy at number 50 and the one at number 100.
FanGraphs' 2021 list illustrates this well regarding Manoah and Woods Richardson specifically, I think. Of the various Blue Jays lists I’ve seen, they have one of the bigger discrepancies between the two players, with SWR being their number three Jays prospect and Manoah being way back at number eight. But they also put a Future Value grade on each player, giving Woods Richardson a 50 (on the 20-80 scale) and Manoah a 45+. So they’re actually quite close — much closer than Woods Richardson is to their number one Jays prospect, Nate Pearson. Pearson is one of only 21 prospects in baseball that FanGraphs gives a 60 FV grade to (the only two above that group are the Orioles' Adley Rutschman at 65, and the Rays' Wander Franco at 80). There are 25 guys with a 55 FV, among them Austin Martin. FG has 83 players with a 50 FV.
The second important thing to keep in mind with these lists is that they represent a snapshot in time. Things change. They can change especially quickly in the case of pitching prospects — like if someone’s command or their stuff takes a big step forward. The FanGraphs list was published in January and, like all of the lists this year, had big limitations when it came to gathering information. Teams’ best prospects were doing their work behind closed doors at their alt sites last summer. Getting good information was even more difficult for Manoah, in particular, because — as I noted in a piece last week — Ross Atkins revealed that he had dealt with COVID-19 last summer and “wasn’t able to participate as much.”
So, when the various mid-season updates to these list arrive, I’d expect Manoah to take a pretty serious jump.
Does that mean he’ll necessarily leap over Woods Richardson on all of them? No. Woods Richardson is still a really impressive prospect having a very good year so far in his own right, and at a young age for his level. I think it’s entirely fair if some evaluators still see reliever potential or just mid-rotation upside on Manoah, or don’t want to make big changes based on small samples, which may lead some to still have SWR ahead. But Manoah is getting written about so much, here and elsewhere, because he looks like he could potentially bring real big league value right now in an area where the Blue Jays have a very obvious need. It’s not all just that. What he did in spring training, and what he’s done in Triple-A so far, is simply not something prospects of any stature do. If the back end of the Jays’ rotation wasn’t in shambles I do think the conversation around him would be a little different — a little more grounded in the usual realities of prospectdom — and the contrast between him and the team’s next best pitching prospect wouldn’t be coming off quite so stark.
Do you think it is worth it to trade a couple of the top 100 prospects for a rental or two? Or do you see them trading a couple of pieces from 40 man and a Biggio/Tellez/Gurriel/Grichuk and some lower level prospects instead? Weird year, a lot of injuries, with potential of a lot of pitchers tiring in back half of year based on minimal innings pitched last year. Just wondering how they strike a balance of staying sustainable without mortgaging too early? — Seth
I definitely don’t think they move any of their top 100 type prospects for a rental. If it’s someone like Max Scherzer? That’s maybe different. For someone with term that makes sense for them? Sure, it could happen.
And those big league guys you mentioned? Definitely interesting, but I don’t see it either. They’ll want to be adding talent to the roster, not getting rid of it — not if it means selling low, and certainly not if they’re playing well. So that makes it tough.
Honestly, if the Jays are really in it as the trade deadline approaches I think we’ll see an approach similar to what they did last year, mostly. Perhaps they’ll get a little more adventurous if the circumstances really dictate that they go for it, or a player available makes sense for multiple years. Otherwise they’ll probably be more more inclined to move guys from the second half of their top 30, or below that, as well as ones who might getting squeezed off the 40-man relatively soon anyway, or who they may not feel they’ll be able to protect from exposure to December’s Rule 5 draft.
I say this not because I doubt that the Jays will be major players on the trade market. I say it because I think teams value their young talent too highly for anyone better than that to really be in play, unless the return is incredibly special. As in: the kind of player that teams just don’t often trade.
I don't know about you but it's great to be excited about Manoah but everybody should calm down a little bit and realize that he would get his tits lit with the hanging breaking balls up in the zone that he's been offering at AAA.
With my super cheap Milb.tv subscription, I've watched his last 3 starts and although the WooSox were chasing his stuff, the Bosox would punish it. Manoah is going to be good but maybe give him some direction to work on the things that will get him crushed in the majors before crowning him the savior. Fans can be knee jerk, still not the best for his development. A couple more Stripling outings might change my aggressiveness with him though. — David
You mean the TV broadcast where the camera angle looked like this?
Yeah, I’m not sure that’s the best vantage to scout from. But I don’t want to drag you too hard here, because it’s entirely fair to be concerned about how a very inexperienced pitcher is going to react to being thrown into a major role on a potentially contending team.
I also don’t want to drag you too hard here because I stole much of my original answer to your question for big parts of Tuesday’s piece on Manoah’s call-up. In particular, I stole the parts where I was saying that, no, the slider is actually really good, the assessment that he’s been hanging them a lot is, in my view, inaccurate, and it’s the changeup that needs work.
I guess we’ll find out soon!
Hey Andrew, with the current state of the bullpen, do you think the Jays will consider trying to piggyback starters to try and get through a game only using two pitchers? Splitting a game between Hatch (when he’s available) and Kay? Or some other combinations of pitchers? — Ron
I don’t. The opener is one thing, because you’re using a guy from your bullpen the same way you would in any other game, just in a different inning. Piggybacking, on the other hand, requires abandoning the a bunch of advantages of modern bullpen construction. It’s important to be able to play the matchups late in games, and to be able to throw different looks at your opponents late in games. It’s also important to not clog up your bullpen with guys who can only pitch once every five days, and only after a specific starter goes ahead of him. That limits what you can do with the rest of your ‘pen — and it assumes that managers would be able to resist the urge to not end up using relievers in those “piggyback” games anyway.
The idea has come up a lot since the Jays piggybacked the “Lansing Three” a decade ago, and it’s definitely an interesting one. But back then that was being used as a developmental tool at a level where winning games was less important. There’s a reason major league teams don’t do it.
It is a sad thing when your DH is one of the poorest hitters on your team. Are left-handed hitters, who don't need to be able field well at all, but can *really* *really* hit so rare that we can't go off and get one? — Laura Creighton
I guess it depends on what you mean by “can *really* *really* hit.” There are talented left-handed hitters in the league, for sure. If we’re not setting the bar too high, I’d say the issue in finding one isn’t so much scarcity as it is availability. As discussed above, trades just aren’t easy to make at this time of year.
Another complicating factor for the Jays right now is that the player you’re talking about replacing, Rowdy Tellez, really looked like he might have turned into something special last year. I know he’s mostly looked awful lately, and I know last “year” was hardly a real year, but it wasn’t your average BABIP-powered hot streak he went on. He cut his strikeout rate by nearly half without any significant loss of power. That’s pretty intriguing to me still, even with the awful start to this year.
If nothing has changed by the time the trade deadline starts approaching, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Jays look for exactly the kind of bat you describe. I don’t think they’re there yet though. Plus, when George Springer comes back — which better be soon! — they’re going to have a tough time finding DH at-bats for Tellez anyway. That could give him a chance to go back to Buffalo again and get some work in down there for a bit, and when he comes back we can see from there. You’re right that it can’t continue the way it’s been going though.
When Springer gets back into the lineup I assume he gets slotted back into the lead off spot. If it were you writing out the lineup would you keep Semien at 2 and drop Bo down to 5 or move Semien into the 5 spot? Given how the two have been hitting in recent weeks I’m tempted to drop Bo down. I know they are hesitant to make Bo uncomfortable but it’s hard to drop Semien given how he’s been playing. — Scott
At this point I’d also drop Bo in the lineup, and I suspect that’s what the Jays would do too. Bichette started the year hitting third for eight games — behind Semien and (mostly) Biggio — before getting moved up to the two spot. Vlad started hitting out fifth, too. So lineup spots aren’t etched in stone, even for the core pieces of this team. A spell hitting lower might be just the thing Bo needs, and I don’t think he’d have much of an argument to stay higher anyway.
Hi Stoeten, my wife and I were at Sunday's debacle, and it was remarkably painful to be there and watch it, especially among the Rays fans that seemed to outnumber the Blue Jays fans. The less said the better, though I couldn't figure out what happened to Jordan Romano. Anyway, here's something lighter: After Vladdy hits a homer, he does sort of a "shhh" thing when passing the third base coach, usually Luis Rivera. Do you know what this means, or why he does it? Mr. Fairservice, originator of an entire newsletter about Vladdy, did not know and I was hoping you might. — Nik
Oh no, I’m sorry to hear that you had to witness one of those awful weekend games! Thanks so much for the question, unfortunately I don’t have much of an answer for you. I saw that someone responded to your question suggesting Vlad’s “shh” was aimed at the visitors’ dugout, and it’s surely not that. He and third base coach Luis Rivera both definitely exchange the gesture.
Honestly, my guess was that it was maybe something borne out of COVID protocols about avoiding high fives, because that’s around the time I thought he started doing it. My memory usually sucks for stuff like that, so imagine my surprise when I checked out the archive of Vlad’s home runs at MLB Film Room and found that the theory sort of lined up. On the 2019 home runs I looked at, including his last one, he gave Rivera a high five or a fist bump as he passed. The same was true of his last home run in spring 2020, before the shut down. Only after “summer camp” did it turn to pointing or the “shh” gesture.
Like a lot of players, he’s got post-hit rituals, and personalized handshakes and high fives for various teammates, so maybe it’s just that, maybe it’s something more. Maybe it’s personal. Only Vlad or Rivera could say for sure.
Do you think we'll upgrade at third base this season? Or is Cavan Biggio an acceptable option? - Jayman
If the Jays are buyers by the time the trade deadline comes, I think they’ll definitely look to upgrade third base. I know they like Biggio, but he can be used in a lot of different ways, and the front office wouldn’t be doing its job otherwise. It’s a clear position of need.
Hey Stoeten - Lots of negative energy this week, so probably a good time to celebrate how much Hyun-Jin Ryu fucking rules. He is incredibly fun to watch and try to guess along with. Besides being nails, what’s your favourite thing about his play? If you were to construct an all-century Jays rotation where would you slot him in ( I have him at #3 behind Doc and rental David Price)? I for one am already counting down to his next start! — Old Dolio
Amen to all of this. Ryu is an absolute treasure. I’m not sure I could pick one specific thing I like the best about him, though, because he just does so much so well. There’s nothing like watching him carve good hitters up while topping out at 91.
As for that all-century Jays rotation of yours, I might split up the lefties and have Stroman follow Price, then Ryu, then Marco Estrada. Of course, I haven’t given this much thought until just this second. If Price is in for a half season, I suppose I’d have to give some thought to David Wells (whose only year with the Jays this century was 2000). And, as much as it pains me to say, A.J. Burnett over Estrada would make some sense. So how about Doc, Price, Stroman, Ryu, Burnett? I don’t know! Good question!
Hey Stoeten, long time reader/listener, first time question asker. What can we expect to get out of Thomas Hatch when he returns in June? I can’t help but be intrigued by the guy, even if he’s less heralded than the other arms. What’s your take? — Chad
Thanks so much for reading such a long time, man. And for asking! I know that there are people out there who think about pitching more often and more knowledgeably than I do who have been pretty impressed by Hatch. I haven’t necessarily been unimpressed, but he certainly doesn’t have the same kind of raw, overpowering stuff as Manoah or Pearson, even though he’s throws 95. Or, at least, he did out of the bullpen last year — the TV gun in his most recent start for Buffalo had him at 93-94 mostly. I suppose few are, so that’s fine, but the strikeout numbers have never been eye-popping, and he walked nearly a batter every other inning last year. Still, he had a lot of good outings for the Jays last year, in a lot of different situations (including two shutout innings against the Rays in the postseason), and I think it’s very possible he can still take steps forward, and maybe beat the back-end-starter projection that has sort of stuck with him since he stagnated at Double-A in the Cubs system.
After acquiring him the Jays (and Vince Horsman, who was let go not long after) got him back to throwing his changeup, which gave him a useful weapon against lefties last year — he was basically fastball/change to lefties and held them to a .200/.289/.350 line. His high-spin fastball is something the Jays covet. And he’s got a couple versions of his slider he uses; one that sweeps and another that’s tighter, like a cutter, according to a piece from Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling last September.
So, there are definitely weapons there. It’s a starter’s arsenal. But I’m just not there yet when it comes to believing he can get big leaguers out consistently the way I do with the more heralded prospects. I’m happy to see him get a chance to try, though!
If Springer does not return to the active roster before June 21st, should he consider changing his name to George Summer? Also, should they try Lourdes at 3B more? He's got a real strong arm and can play infield (was SS at his start in MLB). — Rod B.
LOL. I like “George Summer,” though it’s a bit derisive, isn’t it? Kind of like Steinbrenner calling Dave Winfield “Mr. May.” Plus, so far in his career he’s kinda been “George October.” I think I prefer that one.
As for Gurriel, the Jays did have him taking some reps at third this spring, which caused a bit of a stir until they made it clear that it was only in case of emergency. I definitely thought that was a good idea at the time. Writing about it back in February, I concluded, like you, that he “has the tools to play at third, and maybe even to thrive there.”
Making a move like that in mid-season, though? I think it would be pretty tough. I’d be interested to see them try it, in theory. In practice it could get ugly, at least based on the last time he was asked to play on the infield in the major leagues, and I think it’s completely understandable if they decide to leave well enough alone.
Hello Andrew, I have really enjoyed your musings on the Blue Jays this year and in the past. My question is beyond the young players who it would clearly suit the front office to extend, who do you think may be in line for an extension this year or in the offseason? A personal favourite of mine, Teoscarnandez, is an interesting case, but also one I think it is becoming increasingly clear would be prudent to extend. — Noah
Thanks so much for the kind words, man! I'm with you that Teoscar is somebody that the Jays ought to be considering for an extension at this point. I don't think there's necessarily an urgency to do it at this point, because he won't reach free agency until after the 2023 season, and you still don't quite know who he is yet. But considering he's a late bloomer — he's 28 now and will be 31 in his first free agent season — it probably won't require a massively expensive or long deal. And it may behoove the Jays to get him locked up before he has some kind of a monster season next year, too.
Strange as this may sound to anyone who remembers where the fan base was at with Teoscar a couple years ago, he's definitely a guy who I wouldn't mind seeing the club make a big bet on.
Beyond him, though he's not a young core piece, I would definitely be OK with the Jays bringing back Tyler Chatwood for longer. Marcus Semien would be a great addition to the team long-term, I think. Matz and Ray I wouldn't hate to see extended. And, of course, ultra-long-term extensions for Vlad and Bo can come at any time — though there's still no urgency on those.
The complicating factor to all this right now, as I said above regarding Semien, is that the Jays clearly played the end of this year’s free agent market as though they really want to have financial flexibility next winter. The closer the end of this season gets the clearer that picture will become, so I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of extensions over the next few months, but my best guess would be that we’re more likely to see something like that happen in early 2022. (But what do I know?)
The Jays need starting pitching in a year where teams are probably going to be more loath than ever to part with it, and with fans south of the border coming back to the stands more and more, the Jays' potential willingness to take on money is perhaps not quite as big an advantage as before.
Even if Dan Shulman is as correct as he usually is (great interview, btw) that this may still be a bridge 'wait and see what you have' year as much as a competitive year, the Jays need starting pitching for both this year and beyond. So the Jays are going to have to give up something to get something.
With that in mind, which high level prospects do you think the Jays (not us as fans who get attached to everyone, and see only an array of oncoming superstars) are willing to part with a couple of for a quality, impact SP? I see Moreno, Woods Richardson and Martin as the most untouchable, with the others in play for the right deal. (A Scherzer short term, a Berrios longer term, etc.)
Is Manoah a sell high if they see his ceiling below Pearson or Woods Richardson? Are Pearson and Groshans hurt by their track record or would they still be highly valued?
I don't want to trade any of them, and Shapiro seems pretty keen on keeping the A-listers, but who could still go in the right deal? Or will the Jays simply not trade their best prospects for better SPs, hoping instead to develop 1-2-3s or get them in FA, and only trade mid-tier prospects for 4-5s? (Not that genuine 4s and 5s wouldn't look good right now...) — Mister MEH
Thanks so much for the question! The first thing I’ll say here, even though it’s a small thing, is that I think the first sentence of the last paragraph there should be “Atkins seems pretty keen on keeping the A-listers.” And the second thing I’ll say is, as I said above, I think that’s hardly just a Blue Jays thing.
It would be shocking if the Blue Jays traded any of the names you just mentioned because teams just don’t tend to trade players with the kind of value that would warrant giving up those types of prospects.
Earlier in the mail bag I mentioned FanGraphs and the Future Value grade they put on prospects. After the trade deadline last year FanGraphs ranked all the prospects who were dealt: only one — Taylor Trammell, who, perhaps tellingly, was in a deadline deal for the second year in a row — got a 50 FV. The best prospect the Cubs acquired in the Yu Darvish trade? FanGraphs had him as number 12 in the Padres system at the time, with a 40+ FV.
Manoah’s FV was 45+ back in January, and likely would be higher now. All the other Jays prospects you mention are at 50 or higher. Obviously the way FanGraphs ranks guys isn’t unassailable, but I think you get the idea.
My anecdotal sense from the first couple of months watching the Jays this year, is that hitters are hitting a lot more balls (or sometimes bunting in the case of LH hitters) to the opposite field through gaps in the shift. I think the broadcast has made mention of this too, for whatever that's worth. Do you know if the numbers bear this out (either for the Jays or league-wide) reflecting a conscious attempt by hitters? If so, do you think we are anywhere near a point where teams start going back to more traditional defences? If not, do you think hitters/teams should be doing more to counteract shifts? I understand simply hitting the ball the other way and bunting a ball where you want off 2021 MLB pitching is fucking hard, but it seems trying to smash a ball through a side of the infield with three MLB defenders is hard too. — Bryan
I don’t think this has been the case, no. I think some of the Jays individual hitters have done a better job than in recent years of using the whole field, but as a team they’re basically in the middle of the pack in terms of pulling the ball, going the other way, and hitting the ball up the middle.
As for whether we’ll see more traditional defensive alignments anytime soon, I don’t think so. Maybe in the long run? The Jays are definitely hearing from coaches like Dante Bichette and Guillermo Martínez about using the whole field and not necessarily having to have the same approach with every swing, but the mindset in general among hitters these days seems to still be more about repetition, and it’s been very, very clear over many years now that they don’t think trying to bunt or go the other way against shift is a net positive for them. Seeing as they’re the ones whose livelihoods depend on it, I have to believe there’s something to that.
Andrew. Always great to see you pop up in my email. It’s usually the best read of the day. Sports, news, or otherwise. I’m curious how you go about finding all the articles and links. You comment on so many of them. And also how you get the transcripts for Atkins and Shapiro’s Zoom calls? Mostly, I’m just interested in how your operation functions. Keep up the amazing work. — Steve D.
Hey Steve, thanks so much for the kind words man! I truly appreciate it. I’m not sure “functions” is the word I’d necessarily use to describe anything about workday, but I do know what you mean.
A big part of finding the links I include in posts is that I spend an unfathomable amount of my life on Twitter. And not just plain old Twitter on the web or on the app, either. I use Tweetdeck, which means I have a bunch of different constantly-moving columns for various things I’ve setup, like Jays news, national MLB writers, etc. To supplement that I used to be a Google Reader guy, then switched to Feedly when it got mothballed. But RSS is dying, and now when I need to cheat for a few extra links I use Blue Jays Aggregator, which does an outstanding job of keeping on top of just about everything written about the team.
As for the transcripts, I type them out myself using an outstanding site called oTranscribe and audio files provided by the team.