Mail bag: Somehow almost halfway home!

How do you solve a problem like Berríos? Plus: Yusei Kikuchi, Tanner Roark, Pete Walker, Nate Pearson, Bradley Zimmer, Gabriel Moreno, pitching development, the TV industry, & more!

The 2022 Blue Jays season hits the halfway mark on Monday — though not until they’re through a daunting long weekend series with the Rays — and yet I discovered this week that I somehow haven’t dipped into the ol’ mail bag since early April!

Well that needs to be corrected post-haste. And in that spirit, why waste time with any more preamble than we need, amiright? On to the questions!

But first, I’d like to say that, as usual, I couldn’t get in everyone’s questions in before running into Substack’s post length limit. So thank you so much to everybody who submitted one, and my apologies for not being able to get to them all. And, most importantly, thank you once again to all of those who subscribe.

⚾ Speaking of which, before we get going, please indulge me while I attempt to make a living. Because if you’ve been sent here by a friend, or you are an existing subscriber who would like to move to a paid membership so you can comment, ask questions the next time I open up the ol’ mail bag, or just plain old support what I do, click below to upgrade or become a subscriber — paid or otherwise. I will be eternally grateful if you do! ⚾

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As always, I have not read any of Griff’s answers…

Somewhat concealed behind the flames from the Ryu and Kikuchi wreckage is an increasingly inoperable looking Berrios. Do the Jays just kind of have to stagger along as best they can with this starting situation and try (again) to fix the rotation in the offseason, or does their relatively all-in posture mean they're more or less obliged to make a deal for a starter (and maybe a long guy for the pen) during the season? — Evan

Thanks for the question and the support, man, I truly appreciate it. But oh boy. Look, it’s obviously a frustrating situation with Berríos, and there’s never an opportune moment for a skid like this, but “inoperable”? Let’s maybe slow our roll just a little bit here, please.

I'm not going to quote all the unbelievably consistent numbers that Berríos has put up year after year after year over the course of his career here, because I know we all know those, but what I think a lot of people seem to be much-too-easily forgetting is that this is a guy that went seven innings and struck out eight with no walks three starts ago. He pitched eight innings of one-run ball the start before that. And he struck out 13 over seven innings in the start before that!

I'm not going to tell you that his next start is going to be perfect, or even good. Short-term we have no idea what we're going to get from start to start with him right now, and that's a huge problem. His 5.86 ERA on the season is what it is, and he's had some absolutely horrid starts that, I think, have helped make the memory of his disastrous opening day very difficult to shake. But long-term there is nothing to worry about.

Like, if someone were to ask if "this" is just who he is now — suddenly, inexplicably, at age 28 — I'd ask what "this" they're talking about. He's had three awful starts in his last eight. There was a bad run before that, too. It's been an ugly season. But in the five good starts of those last eight he's thrown 35 1/3 innings and allowed just nine runs (2.29 ERA).

Now, obviously if you only count the good stuff it’s going to make anyone look much better than they have been. We could arbitrary endpoint this the other way and say that Berríos has had just five good starts in his last 10, and produced a 6.63 ERA over that span. The thing is, neither of those statements pass for serious analysis — yet both do make the point that there has been quite a bit more good mixed in with the bad than a lot of people seem inclined to remember.

There needs to be more good, yes. Much more good. But being incredibly consistent and good year-to-year is not the same as being that month-to-month, or start-to-start. There needs to be room for some hiccups without everybody rushing to imply someone is a disaster — especially when that person's track record of success is so incredibly well established.

Over 11 starts from May 5th to July 12th, 2007, when at the peak of his powers, Roy Halladay allowed 47 earned runs in 66 2/3 innings (6.35 ERA) on 92 hits and 16 walks, with just 37 strikeouts. Granted, he had an appendectomy two starts into that run — and he was Roy Halladay — so it's never going to be a fair comparison to Berríos. But people got squirrely about that too. It's a funny game sometimes.

Hey Stoeten, long time reader! Thanks for your top notch writing.

My question is about the Berrios trade and hindsight. While trades can take years to play out, there have been multiple surprises less than one year into the Berrios trade. Berrios signed early (to surprise of the Twins) and has wobbled considerably through ‘22. Austin Martin seems to be a singles hitter at best; the Jays likely sold early and high there. SWR looks to have progressed solidly at AAA. What is your assessment of this trade now? How much does the Berrios signing and ‘22 wobble change your view of it?

I ask because the Jays may want to pull off other similar trades (top flight talent that can be had for more than one year), and yet some of their pitching reads (Roark, Kikuchi, Ryu and maybe Berrios) haven’t been slam dunks. — Jonathan

Thanks for the question, man. I suppose I made my position on whether or not to worry about Berríos long-term fairly clear in the answer above, so no, I’m not reassessing that one in the slightest. I mean, I’m a hell of a lot closer to considering reassessing than I was back in March, or than I ever thought I would be! But his performance in way too many games in the first half of this season can have been extremely frustrating without anybody needing to pick up pitch forks and torches, you know?

And you’re absolutely right that it seems the Jays made some good calls on Martin and Woods-Richardson, so I’m still pretty positive about the whole thing.

As for the their other recent free agent pitching reads, I completely agree that the Ryu and Roark deals were not good in terms of on-field value provided over the life of those contracts. It would be pretty hard to argue otherwise. Kikuchi’s deal may well be on its way there too, though it’s obviously easier to feel significantly negative about that one after his recent run than it was even a month ago. But I think, at least in some aspects, those deals become more defensible when you zoom out and look at things like the Jays’ budget, their needs, the pool of available players to fit those needs, their place on the win curve, etc.

Were they really bad reads?

I didn’t ever love the Roark deal, and I wasn’t surprised when it went sour, but I’d be lying if I said I instantly despised it. There were completely valid questions about his performance, especially in the second half of his walk year, and about how his stuff would age. Was the first half of 2019 more the mirage and the second half more indicative of his true talent? Hard to say! But the cost was reasonable enough and even league-average innings, as long as they were in bulk, were desperately needed by the Blue Jays at that point. Without question they could have spent that money better on someone else, but I understand how the thinking at the time was that this was the best of a limited number of options.

Here’s how MLB Trade Rumors described Roark when ranking him as the number 20 free agent in a class that, looking back, was pretty ugly outside of Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler — two guys we’ve heard that the Jays pushed for, but weren’t in position to realistically land.

Roark, a veteran of seven MLB seasons, has never landed on the injured list. He’s made at least 30 starts in five of the past six seasons, with the exception being 2015 when he was bumped to the bullpen upon the Nationals’ signing of Max Scherzer. His strikeout rate has ticked up over the years, though his lone positive Statcast data point is the excellent spin rate on his curveball.  Roark is a hittable 33-year-old righty with a 92 mile per hour fastball whose main attribute is his ability to take the ball every fifth day. It’s not a particularly sexy profile, but durable, league-average innings have value. Some of the less-appealing free agent destinations might be able to lure him with a two-year deal.

Looking at that same list, here are the other starters who I’d say were in Roark's tier or thereabouts: Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel, Cole Hamels, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson, Julio Teheran, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello.

Odorizzi is the guy the Jays would have targeted there, except he took a qualifying offer from the Twins before hitting the market. Keuchel would have been a great move for 2020, but fell off a cliff after and cost much more (three years, $55 million) than Roark's two-year, $24 million deal. Hamels wasn't coming to Toronto, and at that stage in his career that was a bullet dodged. Pineda would have been a good choice long-term, but he was in the middle of a PED suspension and only made five starts in the Covid-shortened 2020 season. Gibson required a three-year deal and was bad in 2020, but has since rebounded. Teheran signed with the Angels so, naturally, was a disaster. Miley only pitched 14 1/3 innings in 2020 but has been weirdly decent since. Porcello had a good FIP in 2020 but a 5.64 ERA and has been out of baseball since.

That change anything for you? Because it does for me.

I guess what I’m saying is that there’s a difference between how we should assess signing Roark over literally anybody else — which would have been monumentally terrible — versus how we should assess signing him over that particular uninspiring group of guys specifically for the 2020 season. It’s still bad! But maybe not “I worry that this front office doesn’t know what its doing” bad.

Ryu I’ve written about, and I’ll always defend that deal for several reasons: what it meant to the team and the fans, what it signaled to agents and other players, and what he did in 2020. Kikuchi the jury is still out on, obviously, but as I’ve also written recently, he’s still much earlier in the process of being “fixed” than Robbie Ray and Steven Matz were last year when they started to seriously make gains. It feels incredibly stupid to say this at this particular moment (or it did before I watched the first couple innings of his start against the Rays!), but there’s still hope.

All of which is to say… go make some trades, Ross! This is unequivocally a win-now team, and those only come around so often. It’s no time to get gun shy.

What would you do with Yusei Kikuchi? Keep running him out there or bullpen him? Or IL with some "neck problems"? — Steve

As I edit this previously-written answer Kikuchi is keeping it together against the Rays. Prior to this I’d have rather seen him in the bullpen, or on the IL, but I understand why he wasn’t, and I think the first few innings against the Rays here have shown that (fingers crossed he doesn’t make me look like an idiot the second I hit publish on this post!). Five games in four days against the Rays — even the banged up 2022 version — is quite the gamut to run, so it’s going to be all-hands-on-deck over the weekend. They needed to do this. *deep sigh*

Afterwards I think you’ve got to keep all options on the table — though Kikuchi says he feels fine, and without him consenting to go hang out in Dunedin for a bit and then ride the Thruway for a few rehab outings he’s going to be in the majors. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that, but I suspect that after his previous outing it might have had the Jays not been facing such a forbidding slate of games.

Nothing in this sport is ever as good or as bad as it seems. Where have I heard that before?

I'd like to take a different tack on Yusei Kikuchi. No doubt people will like to pile on, but let's take a more civil approach shall we? What happened here?

At the start of the season there were high hopes for the Jays starting rotation. We were actually talking about the good problem of too many good starters to choose from. Then the spectre of Pete Walker's DUI shrouded the beginning of the season and a shortened spring training meant much of the team simply wasn't fully tuned up to go on Opening Day. Then Ryu's gone. Pearson is now injured again. Thomas Hatch has a 4.99 ERA, and there is no clear replacement if Kikuchi is bounced. Perennial bullpen unreliability is also back. The question is, what is behind seemingly constant pitching woes for the Jays? Pete Walker enjoys a sterling reputation. Is it still deserved? Are there other management and organizational issues causing the problems, or are the Jays just living forever under an unlucky star that says all our dreams of a consistently good staff will always be dashed? — Fazmasherley

Haha. It honestly might be the last bit!

But seriously, thanks for the question and the support, man. I really appreciate it. On Walker, though, I’ll say this: While obviously a DUI goes beyond just a stupid mistake, especially considering some of the other alleged details of this particular one, and it’s actually kind of fucked up how quick some people are to excuse a thing like that, I can’t get behind drawing a line between that disruption and anything that has happened with the Jays’ pitching staff this season. I think you’re right that the shortened spring training was an issue — though that’s been one for every team, not just the Jays. I think the injuries to Ryu and Pearson have obviously hurt — both in the rotation and in the bullpen, which is where Pearson was most likely to make his mark this year. Julian Merryweather once again being Julian Merryweather hasn’t helped either, nor has Romano occasionally looking a little more human, Mayza being in a bit of a rut, Richards not being the same guy, or Garcia and Phelps arriving without the ability to strike guys out that they’ve shown in the past.

I honestly don’t know how much of any of this we can ascribe to structural issues or how much is simply dumb luck. Ultimately I think it’s got to be a little bit of both. But what exactly is structural and how to fix it is above my pay grade — or at the very least too opaque to really have a firm take on. They need to further hone how they identify players they think they can help, and how they help those players. What that entails only they can know.

As for Walker, among Jays fans his reputation as some kind of pitching whisperer is obviously absurd — and I think the majority of the fans who riff on it know that. Within the game, though, it’s safe to say he’s incredibly respected. This guy was a player under J.P. Ricciardi, became New Hampshire’s pitching coach when Alex Anthopoulos was in charge, was promoted to bullpen coach for John Farrell’s last year as manager, stayed through the John Gibbons years, into the Shapiro-Atkins years, and is now a crucial part of Charlie Montoyo’s staff. That doesn’t happen by accident in a sport where so many people have “their guys.” You have to be good with your players, good with your colleagues, good with your bosses, good with the media, good at your job, and willing to adapt not just to frequently changing organizational philosophies, but to the ever-evolving state of the sport. Some of the Walker love from the fan base may come from an awfully reductive place, but his is a pretty remarkable story in the context of this industry — which is why the DUI thing was so disappointing.

What are your genuine thoughts on Nate Pearson as a prospect as we find ourselves years removed from his MLB debut? I heard a very interesting point that Pearson is accumulating service time despite his complete lack of contribution to the big league staff. Is his makeup and 'stuff' still something that will translate to the big league level? Or are we waiting around for nothing? To add to that, will we ever see the level of dominance Pearson flashed in the TB wild card game? — Brad

Thanks for the question, man! I’ve got to say, though, it feels pretty hockey-ish to bring up his makeup, which is something I don’t ever recall being questioned. Was he not gutsy enough to avoid mono? Should his lat have had more heart? More grit?

Not to go all TINSTAPP — look it up, kids — but this is just sort of the thing with pitching prospects. The difference is that most of them don’t get so tantalizingly close to big league dominance as to have us learn their names. Brandon Morrow? Dustin McGowan? Aaron Sanchez? We remember those names. But for every Alek Manoah there are a ton of guys like that you’ve never heard of. And while I’m not saying Pearson’s career — or even Julian Merryweather’s, for that matter — is on that track yet, I think it would be foolish to say that it doesn’t feel like he’s potentially on his way.

I say potentially, though, because there are guys — A.J. Burnett and Chris Carpenter spring immediately to mind — who look forever like they’ll never be healthy and then suddenly are. Bodies are a strange thing at the best of times, and maturing bodies repeatedly dealing with the stresses of throwing baseballs at 100 mph are not all equipped to deal with it the same way.

It might never happen for Pearson because of all this injury bullshit. It might have to happen for him elsewhere because, as you point out, the service clock is ticking. But the stuff is there, and I don’t think anyone has reason to believe the makeup isn’t there too.

Here's a question I'm sure no one else would ask or maybe even care about...cuz it's about Bradley Zimmer. He is clearly a horrible hitter. I know every body and its mechanics are different, but have you ever noticed his totally awkward looking batting stance? Maybe if he stood at the plate like a human and not an emu about to lay an egg, he may be able to put bat to ball and hit .200. Isn't that something Guillermo can work on with him? — BobTV

Lmao. Thanks for the question, man. It’s almost a bit of a Jeff Bagwell thing he’s doing, isn’t it? And, I mean, it is something they could theoretically work on with him, but it’s not like he’s just doing that at random!

This is a guy who has been a pro since 2014. He had real success as a hitter in the minors, too! In his second crack at Double-A, back in 2016, he slashed .253/.371/.471 over 93 games. I'm sure he's tinkered all along the way to try to get back to that kind of success, and I'm sure he stands this way at the moment for a reason that works for him. (“Works,” as you say, being a relative term.)

Besides, as long as your limbs and your bat are where they need to be when you're ready to attack the baseball, it doesn't matter a whole lot what your stance looks like before then. Personally, I miss the days when you'd see really bizarre and unique stances at the plate. Give me Julio Franco! Give me Tony Batista! Give me Mickey Tettleton!

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Obviously the brain trust of the Jays knows a hell of a lot more about baseball than I do. However, I can’t help but think that the team is not effectively utilizing a roster spot with Bradley Zimmer.  The man can field and he can run. He hits left handed but to no avail. As I write this he is 7 for 63 with an average of .111. Several of his ‘hits’ have been bunts and he often doesn’t even put the ball in play having struck out 48% of the time (30 strike outs in those 63 at bats).

Meanwhile, down on the farm I notice than Nathan Lukes is hitting .300 and is playing some CF. I can’t help but think that his presence on the team would be more beneficial than having Zimmer sitting on the bench. In a related item, I noticed Jordan Groshans got a start in right field a few days ago. What do you make of that?  Trade bait or grooming someone to take the place of a soon to be free agent corner outfielder? — Paul

I’m not super sold on Zimmer being worth a roster spot myself, Paul, and thanks for the question! I will say this, though. While Nathan Lukes can play “some” centre field, Zimmer is fantastic with the glove. If there’s a catch out there that he can’t make, there’s a good chance that nobody in the league could have made it — or at least very few. He also has genuine value as a pinch runner — something we saw in that epic ninth inning comeback on Tuesday night — despite not necessarily being huge threat to steal.

Is that the kind of player you need to have taking up a valuable roster spot for the entire season? I’m not so sure. The Jays pulled both Jarrod Dyson and Mallex Smith off the scrap heap late last season as options for a similar role.

That said, with the limits on the number of pitchers a team can carry now finally in place for 2022, we probably have to think about how a team’s bench is constructed a little differently. Teams can only carry 13 pitchers, which means they need to carry at least 13 position players. With the Jays’ “A” lineup on the field that currently means that one of Zimmer, Gabriel Moreno, Zack Collins, Cavan Biggio, or Raimel Tapia at DH, and the rest of them on the bench.

Now that I think about it, the Jays could call up someone to take Zimmer’s place, but that would actually cause a few issues.

One, Tapia would then be the backup in centre. This is, understandably, not the Jays’ preference. They seemed to show us as much earlier this month when they faced the White Sox in Chicago. Moreno pinch hit for Zimmer in the top of the 12th inning of the second game of that series, and when it was time for them to take the field for the bottom half of the frame, instead of moving Tapia from right field into centre, infielder Otto Lopez was sent out to take Zimmer’s place and Tapia stayed put. Not exactly a vote of confidence!

Two, the team's best runner would become Teoscar Hernández (28.6 ft/s), with their next best being George Springer (28.4) and then Cavan Biggio (28.3). It's not a fast team! Tapia's sprint speed is below Matt Chapman's and just barely ahead of Moreno's. Zimmer, at 29.4 ft/s, is considerably faster than the lot of them — and also happens to be unlikely to already be on the field when a pinch running opportunity arises.

Three, Zimmer is out of options, so you likely lose him on waivers if you try to replace him on the active roster. Or you at least might lose him. Giving up on him in order to give someone who can really hit an opportunity would certainly make some sense, but losing him just to have Lukes sit there as the fifth outfielder, with somehow even fewer opportunities to provide value, really doesn't.

And four, opportunity is the key word here. Groshans needs everyday at-bats. This isn't a Moreno situation where there is at least some theoretical value in having him in the majors getting to know the staff and the way the game works at the highest level. If you're going to bring Groshans up — and his numbers suggest that isn't warranted anyway, particularly his lack of power and his dismal month of June — he's going to have to play. But who is he going to play in front of?

I do think it's interesting that they've had Groshans spend some time in the outfield, and if he's competent there it could become a better path for him to get to the majors initially (which is all I think that is — nothing about a showcase). But on a team like this, with so many established non-platoon players all over the diamond, the third and fourth guys on your bench need to be ones it makes sense to have sit a whole lot. That's Zimmer. And the fact that he's got a skillset that shines only in particular situations, and that nobody else on the team really possesses, makes him a good fit for that role.

Oh, damn, I think I just talked myself into Bradley Zimmer.

I feel like Moreno could play outfield as well as Teoscar. Honestly I have no idea really but he’s fast, has a great arm. Then we can play all three catchers. What say you? — Julie

Royals MJ Melendez is splitting time as C and RF. Should the Jays do the same with Moreno, and can his other position be RP? 😉 — CaptainLatte

First, thank you both so much for your support and the questions. Second, great minds think alike!

I do like the idea of finding other ways to get Moreno into the lineup, and that certainly could be one of them. As I noted above, he’s only just a little bit slower than Raimel Tapia, and while speed alone doesn’t a good outfielder make (and I disagree with the bit about him instantly being better than Teoscar, who has come a long way since he was acquired back in 2017!), I say go for it!

The Jays already showed a willingness to move him elsewhere on the diamond occasionally by giving him some reps at third base in last year’s Arizona Fall League, but with the durable Matt Chapman fully ensconced there, a bit of run in the outfield certainly makes a lot sense.

The only thing I’d say about that is that I think he’s probably better served catching as often as possible instead of working on becoming some kind of utility guy. And, actually, a lot of what I just wrote about Zimmer and Groshans applies here too. Which brings us to our next question(s)…

What would you do with the catcher situation when Danny is back? Seems untenable to keep all three on right? — Steve

So one team, three catchers. Captain Kirk, Danny “Bautista” Jansen, and some prospect nobody is talking about. Great problem to have. If you are the Yankees and have no apparent weakness, really no problem at all. You don’t have to move anybody. But if you are chasing the Yankees, and also you are a very good team but with maybe a couple glaring weaknesses that a few people have brought up a few times over the past couple years, do you consider dealing from a position of strength to address a position of weakness? If so, who are you looking to deal and what kind of return do you need to break up the holy trinity? And can you (or do you want to) get it done before the trade deadline? — Gibby

Thank you both so much for the questions and the support. First of all, a couple quibbles with your question, Gibby. For one, let’s not go coronating the Yankees just yet, eh? They have a lot of guys playing really well, but no weaknesses? Is 29-year-old never-hit-in-hit-life catcher Jose Trevino a non-weakness? Is strangely-awful Joey Gallo, or they-wanted-to-run-him-out-of-town-last-year Gleyber Torres, or league-average-in-2021 LeMahieu, league-average-in-2022 Donaldson, or Marwin, or Hicks, or Higashioka, or Kiner-Falefa not a weakness?

They're playing exceptionally well, to their credit. Their pitching has been especially ridiculous, and they've banked so many wins they may not be catchable. But let's not go conceding to the stupid Yankees just yet.

As for the Jays and their catchers, um… unpopular opinion, but I don’t think you trade any of them at least until the offseason. I mean, how can you? Kirk is a legit MVP candidate, Jansen is the guy who knows the staff, who the organization loves, and when healthy is “Mr. Right Now.” Moreno is so exceptionally highly regarded that he has to be the future. You can’t move any of those guys.

Which brings me to my second unpopular opinion…

I think you send Moreno to Buffalo when Jansen is back. He needs to play every day. Yes, he’s got obvious big league calibre skills, yes he’s been very impressive, but is he really helping this team win every day? No. Could he benefit from taking what he’s learned against big league pitching, going down to Buffalo, and trying to tap into that power a little bit more? Probably. Could he benefit from playing every day? Absolutely. Will he get close to that in the majors? Not a chance.

I hate to say it, because it’s not the fun answer by a long shot, but if the choice is Moreno sitting on the bench in Toronto and Zack Collins playing every day in Buffalo, or the other way around, I think you let the kid go play every day for a couple months and the bring him back in September.

*ducks*

For several years we have had to rely on external sources for our starting pitching (Ryu, Ray, Gausman, Kikuchi, Berrios, Stripling and probably more going back). Manoah is the only home-grown starter of note and there is a lack of starting pitching depth in the minors that's potentially ready to help out. Sure there's some young guys down there, but they are likely years away. I remember that early comment from Mark Shapiro (2017?) about the starters in Buffalo being 'five guys named blank' so it was a situation that needed fixing, and still kind of needs fixing. Signing pitchers to long-term contracts is always a risk and relying on trades is not easy. Is it time to seriously critique the front office’s ability to develop pitching? I'm not a hater at all, but they've been in charge for 6 years. — OzRob

Thanks for the question and your support of the site, man. I think it’s entirely fair to wonder what’s going on with this, because you’re absolutely right that the fruits of their pitching development pipeline haven’t exactly seemed bountiful yet. However, I don’t think the answer is necessarily that they’re doing anything wrong.

That isn’t to say that they can’t be doing anything wrong, I just think that it’s still too soon to tell, that their ability to find depth guys hasn’t been as bad as your question suggests, and that there are some other factors to be considered before we rip them too much just yet.

Manoah arrived absurdly shortly after being drafted, but he was also an eleventh overall pick. College guys that project to get to the big leagues very quickly are understandably very popular in the draft, and Manoah is proving himself to be quite a unicorn even among that group. You can’t fairly judge this kind of stuff with a Manoah-like timeline in mind.

For me, then, that means looking at it like this: their 2019 draft was a home run on the pitching front because of Manoah alone; it’s too soon to judge the truncated, five-round 2020 draft, though the selections of Nick Frasso, CJ Van Eyk, Trent Palmer, and the primary piece in the Berríos trade (Austin Martin) look very positive; and their 2021 draft has a chance to be genuinely spectacular, with Gunnar Hoglund already traded for Matt Chapman, Ricky Tiedemann racing up top 100 lists, Hayden Juenger holding his own in Double-A just a year after pitching for Missouri State, and others (Irv Carter, Chad Dallas).

The criticism here, then, seems to be more about the three previous drafts. (We’ll focus on the draft because international amateurs are eligible to sign at 16 and a lot of the groundwork on those deals — particularly the big money ones — is done years before that.)

So what happened in 2016, 2017, and 2018?

Well, in 2016 the Jays went safe with their first-rounder, T.J. Zeuch, with an eye to going over slot later in the draft, which is how the ended up with Bo Bichette. Not going to fault them for that! Zeuch has been a depth guy for them. The first of their two second-rounders, J.B. Woodman, was turned into Aledmys Díaz, who was turned into Trent Thornton. They also got Kirby Snead and Josh Winckowski out of that draft. Not exactly homegrown starters, but guys who did help them acquire Matt Chapman and Steven Matz.

The 2017 draft was, of course, when they selected Nate Pearson. Swing-and-a-miss there, so far, and a pick one could criticize because there were concerns about his "violent" delivery at the time, though with how special his arm is and how high his prospect peak was (both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline had him as a top 10 prospect in the sport heading into 2020) it's hard to fault the Jays on that one very much — or for how his injury-plagued development path has gone. Zach Logue, another guy in the Chapman trade, also came from that draft, but otherwise it was fairly position player heavy: Logan Warmoth, Hagen Danner (a catcher at the time, though now on the 40-man as a reliever), Riley Adams, Kevin Smith, Cullen Large, etc.

Then we have 2018, which was the Jordan Groshans-Adam Kloffenstein draft. Kloffenstein has maybe not developed the way the team would have hoped, but he's still just 21 and reached Double-A last month. As a high school arm he was always going to be a project, and there have only been five high school pitchers from this draft to play in the big leagues as yet, so it's hard to call this one a failure either — especially since the Jays have already got some use out of Nick Allgeyer, and since Joey Murray remains intriguing as he tries to make it back after two years in the Covid-and-injury wilderness. Plus, this draft also tilted toward position players, including Groshans, Griffin Conine (traded for Jonathan Villar — whoops!), Cal Stevenson (in the Sanchez-Fisher trade that broke two-thirds of Jays Twitter's mind), and high schooler Addison Barger, who is just now really making noise at Vancouver.

It’s still really early to judge even that one, I’d say! And there are other factors at work here, too.

Yes, it’s been six years, but overhauling the entire way the organization operates has been no small project, and I doubt the Blue Jays would say it’s even finished. Rome wasn’t built in a day, nor was the Rays’ player development apparatus. We can use the Wayback Machine to see what the Jays’ front office directory looked like back in the spring of 2018, and some massive changes emerge when you compare it to today.

On the 2018 org. chart, I count about 40 employees who would fit under the current chart's headings for Baseball Operations, High Performance, and Player Development (excluding staff involved in scouting and travel, clubhouse employees, bullpen catchers, interpreters, doctors, consulting medical personnel, and admin).

Here in 2022 that number is more like 75.

The player development complex gifted to the team by the fine taxpayers of Florida didn’t fully open until the spring of 2021, and even then they were limited in how they could use it because of Covid protocols. And speaking of Covid, the year before that put a huge dent into the club’s development plans because anybody not invited to take one of the limited spots at the alternate site in Rochester was basically left on his own for a full season. There may have been a few more good stories to emerge from the 2016-18 group had that not been the case.

Today, with the PDC fully open and their development staff much more robust, they’re in much better position to make the kinds of gains we’ve seen with guys like Ricky Tiedemann and Nick Frasso than they were even just three years ago. But they’re so young that to see those gains in a big time way in the majors is going to take time. Yet even still there are small victories to report — Max Castillo looking intriguing so far in the majors, Yosver Zulueta forcing his way to Double-A, Adrian Hernandez looking like a potential bullpen weapon, etc.

Honestly, I think the urge to criticize all this stuff at this stage really boils down to two questions: “Why aren’t Pearson, Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, and Trent Thornton better?” and “Why are those the guys the Jays are so reliant upon as depth?”

Those are fair questions to ask, but they’re much narrower than “why can’t the Jays develop starting pitching?” They have simpler answers, too. The former has a lot to do with injuries in the cases of Pearson and Kay, and the latter has more to do asset management than anything else. (Managing options, 40-man spots, the Rule 5, etc.)

Lastly, I it’s important to remember that back when spring training started this year it was conceivable that Ross Stripling was the club’s number seven starter, with Hyun Jin Ryu as the five and Pearson as the six. Wishful thinking on Pearson? Clearly. But what it means is that the level of depth they built is actually serving them really well right now. The scary bit is what’s in behind Stripling, but the reality is that very few teams have great options eight to ten names down their starting pitching depth chart.

Plus, if Pearson, Hatch, Kay, and Thornton weren’t all simultaneously spinning their wheels this season you might even feel pretty good about where they stand. Sure, there is also a bit of a gap in terms of elite upper-level talent where guys like Hoglund, Simeon Woods-Richardson, or Kendall Williams might have fit, or where it was hoped Kloffenstein might more forcefully be right now. But the younger guys are coming fast, and I think that gap is worth enduring considering it also means having Berríos, Chapman, and Ross Stripling on the big league roster right now.

Let’s reassess in a year or two.

Do you think Cavan Biggio could be a better hitter if he just went to the gym and bulked up a bit?

It seems like with more power and his disciplined approach, he could be more dangerous as a hitter. Maybe bigger muscles isn't the only key to power, but should help. — Jeffrey K

Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s quite so simple. Not everybody’s body type allows for that. Biggio’s dad, for example, had a bunch of teammates in the 90s who got awfully bulky, yet he really didn’t. Plus, not every guy with power has to be some hulking monster of a human. Think Alfonso Soriano. Or Bo Bichette.

Fortunately, at least for the time being, this isn’t really an issue. I’ve been on record about my skepticism regarding Biggio — many, many times — but he's been outstanding since his return from Buffalo near the end of May. It's only 91 plate appearances, but he's walking 18.7% of the time over that span, hitting for more power than ever before in the majors (.222 ISO), and is slashing .264/.411/.486 (157 wRC+). If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Dan Schulman has few peers in his profession around the league. It is so great to have him. I watch a number of games around the league. Much of the commentary is terrible. Many announcers go so far of the rails they aren't even paying attention to the game.

What has happened in the culture of the industry that has pulled announcers away from actually calling the game? Is it high time for some dudes to step aside to make room for a diversity of announcers and colour commentators that might be able to provide better input and attention to the game itself? — Fazmasherley

On the latter point I can unequivocally say yes. Just as teams have begun to recognize when it comes to hiring practices on the coaching and front office sides, I think broadcasters need to recognize that not only is it the right thing to do to hire more women, more people of colour, more people of different sexual orientation, etc., not doing so is a massive missed opportunity. The game — and all sports, and… well… everything — can only benefit from more voices and more perspectives that challenge the status quo.

That’s a process that seems to already be ongoing, but I think it’s one that’s going to take a long time to get to where it’s satisfactory — not only because of the obvious challenges faced breaking into the sports and sports broadcasting industries for anyone who isn’t a cishet white male, but because there are only so many of the kinds of jobs you’re talking about, and those who have them are often incredibly entrenched in those positions.

To take just two examples from the Jays universe, Mike Wilner was the third man in the Blue Jays radio booth for literal decades before he was given a shot in the big chair, and only then very briefly. Or how about Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, a terrific and enthusiastic broadcaster who many Jays fans will know as the voice of the Lansing Lugnuts — formerly the Jays’ Midwest League affiliate. Jesse got a chance to call a big league game between the A’s — the Lugnuts’ new MLB parent — and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park recently, as part of Oakland’s recent tradition of having broadcasters from their minor league family call games in the big leagues each year (something Melissa Lockard of the Athletic wrote about just this week). He has been with Lansing since 2009.

As for why certain broadcasts are not so great, I could only theorize. For one, TV is a different animal than radio, and not only does it maybe lend itself to broadcasters “going off the rails” more, because the audience can still see what’s going on, sometimes — though maybe not to the extent that we see this in hockey — in smaller markets and for certain people it’s treated as a stepping stone to bigger and better and more lucrative gigs, like the NFL. Personality sells, perhaps.

I also think that a lot of broadcasts unnecessarily force ex-players into the booth, which often has a negative effect on both aspects of your question.

That isn’t to say that ex-players can’t be excellent at calling games. This year I think the best of Pat Tabler’s folksy charm has really been on display in his work with Dan Shulman (who as you say is, of course, outstanding). Buck Martinez is obviously a legend who fans can’t wait to hear back behind the mic, and I one day look forward to hearing Santiago Espinal on a broadcast! Joe Siddall also does exceptional work when drafted into the broadcast booth, though I think the analyst role he serves in next to Jamie Campbell for Sportsnet is much more the thing that most ex-players should be doing. Those guys have invaluable insight into the mechanics of the game at a level so few people know, but often — though not in Joe’s case! — putting them behind the microphone for hours at a time is simply too much.

I don’t know, though, man. To each their own! It’s really hard to get anybody to agree on what makes a great booth, so there are ones that you and I might think are awful but many fans get something out of. Personally, I’m so focused on Jays coverage that I don’t really even think too much about other broadcasts, I just try to remember which ones I really like. Jery Remy and Don Orsillo calling Red Sox games were always great, for example. I really enjoy Tom Hamilton and Jim Rosenhaus on the Guardians radio broadcast. The Giants’ radio and TV broadcasts are both great. I’d listen to Bob Uecker read the phone book. That kind of thing.

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