Mail bag: The boys are back!
Haven't changed, had much to say. But man, I still think them cats are crazy.
⚾ Welcome to the Batflip, a free, independent, reader-supported site providing coverage of Toronto Blue Jays baseball. If you enjoy what you see, please subscribe to have every post emailed to you as soon as it goes up.
Please also consider upgrading to paid. Not only does a paid subscription unlock access to post comments and submit questions when I do a mail bag, it allows me to avoid using a paywall and keeps all my work free for everybody else. ⚾
Pitchers and catchers have reported! Players are in the best shape of their lives! Televised baseball will be beamed into our homes this very weekend! The Jays’ top prospect is already hurt! The pants are see-through for some reason! Spring has sprung! Baseball is back!
And so am I!
Yeah, sorry for the delay in getting to all of these excellent mail bag questions, but while the Jays have made a couple of mildly interesting additions in the past several weeks—I even wrote about the Justin Turner one—not a whole hell of a lot has changed since… well, since Shohei Ohtani (who?) was supposedly on that stupid plane. Nor did it ever really feel like it was going to change. And, as such, spending precious time and brain cells thinking about this team just didn’t seem particularly urgent considering we’ve got all of the next seven or eight months for that. Perhaps you noticed.
But I can avoid it no longer. The 2024 Toronto Blue Jays season is coming at us fast, whether we bloody like it or not. CAN YOU FEEL THE EXCITEMENT? My regular coverage resumes now.
As always, I have not read any of Griff’s answers…
The Giants gave $44 million to a guy whose career WAR through age 26 is worse than Kevin Gausman's age-26 season alone. My question is: CAN WE LEAVE ROSS ALONE?
Thanks I'll hang up and listen. — Conrad Bidet
Thanks for the question and the long-time support, Conrad! I guess we’ll start here.
To refresh everyone’s memory, the contract in question is the one that Jordan Hicks received from San Francisco. To pitch as a starter!
But while that’s definitely a bit of a weird one, considering that the Blue Jays have since inked Yariel Rodríguez to a deal that could go as high as $47.5 million over five years—not to mention the still-baffling decision to guarantee two years to Isiah Kiner-Falefa—I’m not sure the Hicks deal on its own is reason for fans to stop giving Atkins grief.
But should fans be easier on Ross in general? Oh, absolutely yes. Definitely yes. At least for as long as guys like Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain on the board.
If he hasn’t been slow-playing the market? If for some reason the front office is genuinely satisfied with the current projections and their surrounding error bars? If they don’t land one more significant piece? Worse yet, if one of the other AL contenders ends up with Chapman, Bellinger, Blake Snell, or J.D. Martinez? Well, then I think all bets are off. Or, at the very least, I think anyone’s dissatisfaction with this winter would be entirely justified.
Of course, those guys are still on the board. And in a piece for Sportsnet last weekend, highlighting the recent additions of infielder Eduardo Escobar and lefty bench bat Dan Vogelbach on minor league deals, Shi Davidi suggested that the Jays “look like a team poised to make a trade before Opening Day.”
And that’s sort of the thing. Players may now be in camp down in Dunedin, but the offseason isn’t over—for the Jays or any number teams. Ross doesn’t operate in a vacuum, and I think a lot of frustrated fans would be have been happier these last few months—or at least could have spared themselves a whole lot of wasted energy—if they took just a little more time to consider that.
The market has been slow this winter for a number of fairly well-understood reasons.
• The TV deals that underpin payroll for practically half the teams in the league are in some form of limbo.
• Trades at this time of the year seem to be tougher to make than ever because of a) how similarly teams value players, b) because in the expanded playoff era there are fewer and fewer teams willing to punt on their season before it begins, and c) because the value placed on top prospects is extraordinarily high.
• The group of players the Jays appeared to have spent their winter focused on were fairly interchangeable, meaning there was really no need to identify one and go pay over the odds for him just for the sake of it. (I think you could make fairly similar cases for Justin Turner at one year and $13 million plus bonuses, as for Rhys Hoskins at two and $34 million (with an opt-out that could make it one year and $16 million), or Jorge Soler at three and $42 million.)
• And, of course, Scott Boras.
It may be unlikely, but it’s certainly not impossible that, in the next week or so, Bellinger or Chapman get worried about not being in camp yet and direct Boras to drop their prices. That would be a coup for the Jays, if they’re actually willing to pounce. And to have missed that opportunity just to have given anxious fans a little dopamine rush in January doesn’t seem like very smart business to me.
On the other hand, it’s not impossible to worry that the Jays could be walking into a trap with this strategy. Perhaps some team will solidify its TV situation or have a regular player go down to injury, another may see enough of an opportunity to get aggressive and jump back into the market. Getting one of the remaining free agents to blink may not be as easy as they’re banking on. There’s gamesmanship to all of it, absolutely.
Of course, it’s also not impossible that this isn’t the strategy at all—that they really are just going to go into the season with this roster.
Whichever way it shakes out, it’s not unfair to have expected the Jays to have done more by now. But there’s a difference between “I expected the Jays to have done more by now,” and the tenor of a lot of what I’ve been hearing and reading out there these last couple of months.
To a large extent I get it. So far it doesn’t look like they’ve done enough to improve a roster that wasn’t good enough last year—at least in terms of results, which is sort of the whole point. Atkins’ tenure has hardly been perfect; he always seems to leave some kind of annoying minor roster hole, it sure would be nice if they could win the damn division for once, and they obviously haven’t had success in the crapshoot that is the playoffs. Yet it’s wild to me that so many people seem to have convinced themselves that not only have they not been mostly pretty successful, they’ve been unacceptably bad. Even if most of those people are really only doing so to blow off steam.
This is sort of why it drives me up the wall that there’s so much sentiment out there that it’s actually natural and fine for fans to be overly irrational about their team because they’re just so dang emotionally invested. No, man, it’s fucking exhausting to turn your fandom into a contest of one-upmanship about who can best make being deliberately angry and obtuse into a personality. I don’t think expecting people to control their emotions enough to not say embarrassingly wrong things all the time is too much to ask. (Ironic for me to say if you read the DJF comments in 2007!) But maybe that’s just me.
There are plenty of things to not like about this team and the people who run it—I’m sure we’ll get into that below!—and plenty of times when it makes sense to be down about them. But, much like all of last summer, I feel many Jays fans are getting themselves worked into a lather about failures—what if they don’t add anyone else! what if they don’t make the playoffs!—that simply haven’t happened yet.
In short: I agree with the premise of the question.
Thanks for your amazing writing. I've been a dedicated reader since your early start. Wishing you the best here in 2024.
Reflecting on this ‘23 Blue Jays team and then looking at the Philadelphia Phillies, I am struck by their similarities and differences. They’re big-market teams. Teams in the middle of their competitive “windows”. Similar payrolls. They profile with star-power players, both with the bats and pitching. Strong catching, shortstops, talented rosters—and owners committed to their rosters with similar payrolls. And yet, their past two seasons have played out so different. The Blue Jays have, in a way, shrunk in the big moments, with core players that have regressed and left postseasons very disappointingly. The Phillies, quite the opposite. I am struck by the the boldness—the willingness to make moves based on best player available (evidenced by Phillies' willingness to get the bats) vs. best fit to the team (Jays being too cute by half).
These organizations seem to be polar philosophical opposites. Shapiro and the front office are a calculated bunch trying to avoid the bad contract and balance for long-term success. Dombrowski’s always been seen as hitting—and making it big for his owners. These two execs are at similar points in their career and yet very different arcs (Dombrowski with five orgs and two rings, Shapiro with two orgs and no rings). Common perceptions may be that Dombrowski has played the scouting game and gambled on FAs harder, Shapiro has honed player development orgs, is/has been the smart one. Yet the results over and over have shown that Dombrowski’s blueprint for success has worked. Teams with deep or celebratory playoff runs. Is there a lesson here, an antidote to this Shapiro/Atkins way of building? — Jonathan R.
Wow, great question man. Thank you for it, and for the support.
I guess what I’d say to start is that we really need to be careful not to read too much into playoff games. Particularly, four Blue Jays playoff games.
I know it goes against all of our instincts, and every sense in which the game is described, but the Blue Jays losing four of four playoff games over the last two years doesn’t tell you anything about their character, their talent, their preparation, their coaching, or even their ability to win when it counts. It just tells us that they lost those four specific games.
That’s maybe a particularly cold, and not especially fun, way to look at things. I would prefer that it wasn’t the case, or that at least fewer teams made the playoffs so that it was a little less apparent. But, like, the Diamondbacks won 84 games in 2023—they were 32-39 in the second half!—and ended up taking down the Brewers (92), Dodgers (100), and Phillies (90) on their way to the World Series. The Phillies beat the 104-win Braves.
Don’t get me wrong, I do actually think the playoffs are fun as hell. It’s fine by me if the playoff tournament doesn’t necessarily prove that one team was “the best” in any sort of meaningful way—could it ever? I doubt it—but that’s the reality. And I think we therefore need to acknowledge that the playoffs are great for narrative, but bad for analysis. Teams are telling us that pretty clearly—HELLO, MR. THOMPSON—by the way they build and the lack of urgency most exhibit when it comes to leaping beyond the mushy middle, I think. Just get in.
And if we remove all that, I see an 89-win 2023 Blue Jays team in an incredibly competitive AL East despite an absurd amount of bad batted ball luck (especially relative to the division winners), and a 90-win Phillies team in an NL East that was not nearly as strong. I don’t see much of a difference in terms of being willing to bet and spend big—you’re right that their reputations say otherwise, but neither is as one-size-fits-all as it may appear. And in Dombrowski and Shapiro, I see one executive who has almost always been able to run very high payrolls over the last 20 years, and another who really hasn’t outside of the past two or three. Counting the rings, then, doesn’t really make much sense to me.
I do think there are differences between the two organizations and execs, obviously. And I would absolutely be open to a guy like Dombrowski taking over the Jays for a while. But I don’t see the “Mark bad, Dave good” binary you seem to be implying, or any particular lessons to take here.
Thanks for all you do Stoeten, love the content.
I guess this is a two-part question:
1) Is banking on positive regression from the likes of Vladdy, and guys like Jansen and Springer staying healthy, maybe not as bad a bet as it feels like right now? Going from almost landing Ohtani to KK and IKF is obviously a letdown at this point in the offseason, but it's not like the Jays were dogshit in 2023. Frustrating to watch, undeniably yes, but, y'know, still pretty damn good. Get some better sequencing with the hitting and it's a very different story IMO.
2) I still think they add an OF/DH to round out the lineup, and the Jays cook in 2024. Any preferences for who that might be, given the current options? — steve-o
Well, we now know a big part of the answer to this question, and it’s Justin Turner.
Truth be told, he probably wouldn’t have been my first choice. Frankly, he still isn’t. But I do agree with what you’re saying here, mostly. Here’s what I tweeted in the aftermath of the Ohtani (who?) debacle, and I’m honestly basically still in the same place…
That said, even if they manage to get some positive regression from Vlad, Springer, Kirk, Jansen, Varsho, etc., and a nice season from Turner as a replacement for Brandon Belt, it’s unlikely that each one of those guys will have some kind of a massive turnaround. Plus, they still haven’t adequately replaced Chapman. Meanwhile, I think the health and production they got from their starting rotation in 2023 will be very tough to replicate.
So, I’m not exactly jumping for joy about the state of the roster at this very moment. Turner helps, but I think there’s work to be done. And while I do understand that it’s risky to take on a contract with Chapman or Bellinger that could become a problem down the road, I think it’s far more risky to go into the second-last year before Bo and Vlad hit free agency with a roster projected to be worse than the Twins’!
Hi Andrew! Happy New Year. Thank you for all the great content and detailed analysis. Long time supporter/reader/subscriber, but first time with a question. Miss the pods in the offseason…
January’s Atkins presser was very hard to take. We have had the Anthony Bass debacle, double speak nonsense that was universally panned, then we had the horrible end of year press conference where Ross threw his manager under the bus and was universally criticized for that. Now this presser, which was filled with more nonsense. A few months ago, he went on how we were so well positioned to attract/obtain a 5+ WAR player. Now he says (once again) he was “exceptionally excited” about the process. That failed to land any impact bat? Despite the Jays total power outage?
He called it a “blip” and blamed the team’s communication to its hitters?
Question: Is he serious? Is this his poker face? Or is our GM really unable to read a room/the fan base? They have increased ticket costs and yet are failing to improve the team, and he’s stating that he is “exceptionally excited about our team” that has failed to win a playoff game in the Vladdy era.
In most corporations you get fired for this kind of awful communication to your clients/customer base. What is your take? It seems his PR/prep is terrible for these press meetings or he is terrible at communicating in an honest manner or terrible at seeing what the team needs? I am so confused by why he keeps going in front of the press with this failing communication style that leaves fans more upset then if he didn’t say anything. What is your take? — Russell H.
Thanks so much for the question and the support, man! My take is that he’s definitely bad at this aspect of the job but there’s not much else he can say most times, and ultimately it doesn’t really matter. Most of the criticism he receives is from fans who know full well that they’re nit-picking and would be upset at him regardless.
Mark and Ross recognized very early on—and acknowledged publicly—that fans in this market are going to like them if they win, and probably not like them otherwise. Because they understand that, they seem to not particularly care about Ross’s deficiencies in this aspect of his job. Or are at least willing to use him as a human shield and then, if necessary, Mark can come in an clean up whatever mess he makes.
Ross usually does not-catastrophically enough to keep these things off Mark’s plate, and I can only conclude at this point that that’s all that matters to them. Ross will not be fired for this, so there’s no sense clinging to it as potential ammunition to that end.
I do suspect that when he was originally hired the thought was that he might eventually get better, but… clearly not! Which is fine. Do we actually honestly care? Should they spin to us better? I mean, the fact that they’ve cited communication problems as a reason their offence underperformed this year does sort of raise an eyebrow. And it certainly couldn’t hurt to make someone else the public face of Baseball Ops. But when it’s understood that everything is spin and bullshit and posturing and gamesmanship and about keeping players happy, do we honestly even care? I care about the baseball moves he makes.
Always grateful for your pieces and the podcasts, a longtime listener and reader. Atkins pointed to the down years from several players offensively as a reason for optimism in '24, which to certain degree seems reasonable. However I worry about regression from the starting pitching, partially in terms of performance but in particular with regards to the unusual good health they enjoyed as a group last season. I'd welcome your thoughts on that issue, and, related, on the farm system's failure to produce pitchers—and such necessary SP depth—for so long now. — Olaf
Thanks so much for the question and the support, Olaf! As I mentioned above, I definitely do agree with you that it would be hard to replicate the season that the Jays’ pitching staff had last year. That said, I’m not hugely down on them or anything. One reason for that is that, though you’re right that developing homegrown starting pitching has been an issue for them—made clear by the fact that their four locked-in starters all arrived via trade or free agency—I think they’re in pretty decent shape right now in terms of depth.
Alek Manoah’s physical change shows that he’s clearly motivated to get back to his best. The Jays are going to do everything in their power to keep Yariel Rodríguez a starter. Bowden Francis is earning ridiculous praise from his teammates this spring after a surprisingly strong 2023 season that saw him add some meaningful zip to his fastball…
Ricky Tiedemann got to Buffalo at the end of the year and should be in the mix until he runs into innings limits. Mitch White shoved for the last six weeks of Buffalo’s season and remains genuinely intriguing despite all of the fans’ groans. Wes Parsons exists.
Pitchers are fickle things, as we’ve seen up close with Manoah last year, and Berríos and Kikuchi the year before that, and any sort of long-term injury is obviously going to cause problems for any team, but they’ve been in much worse places in terms of depth at this time of year than they are right now. It’s the hitting I worry about, even if I agree with you that positive regression seems logical.
Love the work, Andrew; happy to support!
Davis Schneider had an amazing opening weekend and is truly a likeable guy, and a great story and moustache. To my eye, regression hit hard the rest of the season. As far as performance (not personality!) I'm getting JP Arencibia vibes. Is Davis on the opening day roster? — Thomas W.
Thanks so much Thomas! I get where you’re coming from, I suppose. But also… not really?
Arencibia similarly started his career with a bang, going 4-for-5 with a double and two home runs in his debut, but he then went 1-for-32 to finish out the 2010 season. He erased some of the memory of that slump with a great performance on opening day in 2011, but the highlight reel pretty much ends there. Hindsight being 20/20, I understand why people were so intoxicated by him as a prospect, but the fact that he had to repeat Triple-A after slashing just .236/.284/.444 while essentially playing on the moon (Vegas) probably should have been a bigger red flag.
On the other hand, I do have questions about Schneider, but he’s basically hit everywhere he’s played, and I think there are more reasons to be bullish on him as a hitter. Though he’ll strike out, he’s not just a hacker like Arencibia was—he always produces elite walk rates, whereas JPA’s 8.3% rate in his repeat year in Vegas was the first time he’d been above 5.2%. I’d also say that Schneider’s 29 homers across two levels this year are far more impressive than the 34 that Arencibia hit in 2010, considering that 32 of those came in the PCL. And while Schneider definitely did have a rough September, and went hitless over an eight-game stretch at one point, I really don’t think it’s nearly the same. I’ll take power and patience!
Schneider is projected to be in the 112 wRC+ range in 2024 according to most of the systems listed on his FanGraphs page, and that doesn’t seem unreasonable given his track record and tools. He’ll be on the opening day roster.
Thanks for all your work Stoeten, still my favourite writer for Jays analysis and happy to re-subscribe and support you for 2024.
My question: What would be your take if the Jays went ahead and signed Trevor Bauer? I have never been a fan of his but it's pretty clear the dude can still pitch. It seems he's been vindicated from past alleged transgressions (admittedly I am no expert on this, but based on mainstream media coverage and recent court decisions). I feel like someone is going to take a flier, and at a relatively discounted rate for a top-notch starter—why should or shouldn't the Jays be that team and what would your reaction be if he signed on with Toronto? — Jeff O.
Yeah… thing is, he hasn’t remotely been vindicated.
Yes, Bauer settled his legal proceedings with a woman in California who accused him of sexual assault, but that’s hardly the same as being proved innocent. Even if the matter had gone to court and he’d won it wouldn’t have proven that. “We’re not able to get a conviction” isn’t the same as “he’s innocent.” And what we do know is that MLB investigated and determined a lengthy suspension was warranted, that the independent arbitrator who eventually reinstated him did so while upholding the 194-game suspension he’d served and the loss of salary that went along with it, that Bauer himself admitted in a recorded phone call that he'd hit the woman, and that there are three other publicly-known women who have credibly accused him of sexual assault: two in Ohio and one in Arizona, the latter of which has a case that is still working its way through the courts.
Also, in a tweet on Thursday night, the California accuser made it clear that she believes there are details that aren’t known publicly, but were uncovered as part of MLB’s investigation.
So… yeah. He can fuck all the way off and if the Blue Jays signed him I’d probably start looking for another career.
Really appreciate the content. Please keep it rolling. Best coverage we have.
I'm definitely over attempting to find value or interest in Ross's quotes, this is his style, fine, I'm over it, just do a good job. The moves are what matter! Not his likability or relatability. But are they really mutually exclusive? I think the track record is decent (this year still TBD). Losing trust in someone's ability to make sound baseball decisions because they don't interview well seems pretty illogical...and yet here I am? Where are you on separating these two things? — Chris
Thanks for the question and the support Chris! Sorry for not keeping the coverage rolling so much these last couple of months, but I didn’t think anyone needed a weekly update on the same five free agents everyone knew had been on the radar since October, so I was happy to take the time to recharge. The season should be fun! Or, at the very least, interesting.
As for your question, like I said above, I really don’t think Ross’s manner of speaking publicly matters very much. But I should clarify something here: I don’t think it matters a whit if fans don’t like it, however, if his way of speaking undermines the players’ confidence in him the way it does for fans, then it’s a real problem.
Players are people too—just this week José Berríos spoke to the Toronto Sun’s Rob Longley about the sting of being lifted after facing just 12 batters in the playoffs last October in Minnesota—and I recognize that I should probably be more careful sometimes not to assume that they can rationalize away the GM’s communication deficiencies the way that I can. The Athletic’s story this week about Pittsburgh’s troubles—which highlighted, among other things, a distrust in player development within the organization—offered some great insight into that dynamic. And the fact that the Pirates are run by former Jays exec Ben Cherington did give me pause!
Hi Andrew,
I'm surprised that there hasn't been any chatter on a long-term Bo Bichette extension this off season, as there has been in years past. Given the chase for Shohei, I think it's pretty clear that Rogers is willing to make the big investments for the right players. Obviously Bo is (at least) a tier below Ohtani, but given his track record, the nearing free agency, the recent “Arb” extension they gave him as evidence that these two parties can work together, I feel like it's a real possibility. Plus I do wonder how much motivation to get a “win” this off season there is for Shapiro/Atkins (not that 9 figure contracts should be done for PR reasons). Do you agree?
I'm also curious what a theoretical extension could look like? Obviously, the production is elite, but maybe a tick below the Seager/Turner/Lindor/Boegarts level, all of whom got $300M or near that. Is there any world where an extension gets done and the first number on the contract isn't a three? — Kyle R.
Thanks so much for the great question and the support, Kyle. I think you’re absolutely right that there are all kinds of reasons Jays could and should do this deal. The thing is, the fact that it hasn’t happened yet makes me wonder if Bo isn’t hellbent on reaching free agency and maximizing his next contract while exploring what other options are out there for him. That’s his right, just as it was the Jays’ right to sniff around all of the guys you mentioned—which they did. It would be an unfortunate outcome for Jays fans, obviously. Franchise shortstops don’t grow on trees, and if the team needs to pay a premium to keep Bo from getting there they should absolutely do it. But being 27-year-old free agent Bo Bichette in a class of shortstops with Orlando Arcia, Tommy Edman, Jorge Mateo, Miguel Rojas, and maybe Trevor Story is an indescribably lucrative proposition. He'll be able to choose where he plays while getting more money than he could ever spend.
That said, you could have said similar things about Rafael Devers a year ago, who would have been a free agent this winter had he not signed a 10-year, $313.5 million extension with the Red Sox last January. It’s definitely not impossible that Bo and the Jays work something out—and it doesn’t necessarily have to be right now. It certainly would be a win. But the player needs to be willing to dance, and that’s sort of where I wonder about it.
(I do think the number would start with three.)
Thanks for doing this Griff.
From various things I’ve read it seems probable that Bo is keen to test the free agent market. It’s meaningless of course, but I’ve always got the vibe that he’s going to leave the best first chance he gets.
Assuming this is all true and the team knows he is not keen to sign an extension, does this make him our biggest trade chip? Particularly if things go sour this year? Or would they hang on to him to the bitter end because he’s part of the young core that has long been advertised as our platform for success?
(As a caveat to this point, I realize it's stupid to trade our best player—and it would enrage the fanbase and torpedo our immediate future to do so—but I guess my point is that if the Jays knew he had zero interest in staying long term, what should they do?) — OzRob
Thanks so much for the question and the support Rob! I think this is maybe the most interesting thing that’s going to be hanging over the head of this franchise for the next two years. As I said above, I think it’s possible that Bo isn’t amenable to an extension—not because he wants out of here, but more likely because he wants to pick the best situation for him (much like he did when choosing the Jays when he was drafted)—and there probably will be an argument to be made to move him next winter. Or maybe even at the trade deadline this July, if things go especially bad. I wouldn’t say that’s likely, but it’s at least in the realm of possibility, and absolutely will be talked about the first time they lose a few games.
Bo, Vlad, Bassitt, Romano, Biggio, Mayza, and Swanson are all due to be free agents after 2025. Gausman will have two years left on his deal next winter and will have plenty of value left. One could maybe even be able to say the same above Springer, Varsho, and Kirk, depending on how this season goes. I’m not advocating for the Jays taking this path—that whole “sustainable championship contender” thing sounds much better to me—I’m just saying that a front office looking to supercharge an inevitable, oncoming rebuild might be very tempted to pivot a year early and cash in.
If they do hang on to him until the bitter end it won’t be about anything that was “advertised,” it will be in order to put the best team on the field possible in 2025. I’m fine with that too.
Keep up the great work! Great questions so far, one additional one.
I’d like to get your thoughts on 3B. As per Atkins, we still seem to be seeking an “OF/DH” type, but where does that leave 3B? Realistically, are there comps for competitive teams running with a committee 3B (of underwhelming offensive contributors)? As much as Chapman was tough to watch for most of the season he obviously profiled decently statistically at the end of the season from a WAR perspective. Punting a high ceiling position seems like the opposite strategy an analytics focused org like the Jays would move forward on. In short, are we really not going to go out and get a 3B and is that reasonable? — Jamie G.
Thanks so much for the question and the support, Jamie! This one came in before the Justin Turner signing, but I’m not sure he counts as a proper third baseman—he hasn’t been a full-timer there for two years and only played 57 innings at third last season (largely Devers-related, though his performance had dipped to below average in the previous couple seasons anyway)—so I think it’s worth addressing. And I think I can do that with two words: the Rays.
Like, I don’t feel great about the Jays’ third base situation—go sign Chapman already!—but the committee thing, in and of itself, isn’t disqualifying. And certainly not anti-analytics.
Is there any argument for keeping Espinal around at this point? He already seemed like the like the odd man out (to me) before the IKF signing. — Player to be Named Later
Surplus to requirements, as they say. Yeah, I could see him bouncing back defensively, and he actually had a nice little September at the plate, but unless they don’t think IKF can handle short, I don’t exactly get the point either. Still time for a trade, though.
Similar to another question comparing GM/FO style, AA left town something of a folk hero and has gone on to have great success in Atlanta, with a ring under his belt and an exciting young team that looks to be a force for some time. It's hard not to look over and be a bit envious.
Atkins hasn't locked up any of our young core, and seems to try to be a little too clever. Aside from Shohei, he's never gone after the best FA or trade options around, and seems to look for “good value” above peak performance. Sometimes that works out (Gausman, if he stays halfway healthy that deal looks brilliant), and sometimes it doesn't (Springer, Ryu—both of whom I love watching and having on the team, but they were both value buys due to health concerns, and that's hurt the team to varying degrees).
Is there some compare and contrast to be done there? Is it just “grass is greener”, or good luck, or is Atkins actually the kind of B-tier exec he seems to be as compared to the kind of exec that can really get it done? Decent but unexceptional?
Seems like the promise the team had a few years ago has drained away a bit after Atkins couldn't find any offensive upgrades at the deadline, and now can't find any in the offseason either (unless there's an out of left field trade that comes through, all the FA options are underwhelming) and looks to not even be replacing the outgoing production, let alone upgrading...
I guess just looking around and dreaming, as one does when things seem depressing. — Argos
Thanks for the support and the great question, man. There's plenty I agree with and plenty I disagree with here. I guess I'll just start from the top:
• Anthopoulos has obviously had incredible success in Atlanta and I completely get the envy. I feel it too. But I also think it's important to recognize that a lot of that foundation was there before he arrived, and that while he absolutely did leave Toronto a folk hero, that was entirely about his last three months on the job. Before the trade deadline in 2015 people were through with him and had been for quite some time. Full credit to him for that season, and for what he's done in Atlanta, but if we're evaluating executives I think context matters.
• It's indisputable that Atkins hasn't locked up the Jays' best young players, but are we really wishing Vlad had already signed a $300 million extension after the season he just had? I do agree that “too clever by half” has been a hallmark of his tenure, but I don't at all agree that he's never gone after the best free agent or trade options around. Like, at all. It's been reported that they made a run at Gerrit Cole, they tried for Trea Turner, they were in on Xander Bogaerts, they traded for José Berríos and Matt Chapman. And the idea that he looks for value over “peak performance”? What? When the trade market last summer was bereft of bats—which big bats moved that he should have added?—he sent two pretty strong pitching prospects (Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse) to St. Louis for two months of Jordan Hicks.
• I don't think vibes is best metric for evaluating executives. Especially when they're weirdly negative on guys who keep putting together rosters good enough to make the playoffs, at which point it really becomes a crapshoot (see: Diamondbacks, Arizona). Like, last year's Jays were tied for seventh in baseball by wRC+, fourth by ERA, great bullpen, great defence. There's not much more an executive can do than put together a roster like that, it just oddly didn't translate into results in the way that anyone would have expected. I’m oversimplifying a bit—the preparation stuff Atkins has talked about this winter probably did have an effect—but I tend to think that’s less a failure and more just plain weird.
• I wouldn't say that the promise has drained as much as the enthusiasm has. They're not projected to be as good as last year, or as good as some of the teams around them—and that's a problem they absolutely should address—but they're still really good. There's no reason that they couldn't win the World Series this year. Like, that wouldn't be surprising in the slightest. But the failure to improve on a roster that didn't appear to be good enough last year, and the fact that we all sat through hours upon hours of games in which a 2-0 deficit felt insurmountable, is understandably weighing on people. I get it!
Thanks Stoeten for keeping on w great insight and great writing.
On that tip, I’m wondering if you can recommend other great baseball writers/books? I’ve really enjoyed Dick Hayhurst’s books, and classics like Ball Four, but wondered if you had any gems, hidden or not, you can point to. And have you considered writing a book yourself? — Christ on a Bike
Thanks so much for the question and the support, man! Unfortunately, I probably don’t have a great answer for you here, because I just don’t read books nearly as often these days as I’d like to admit. In the years when I’d have an hourlong TTC commute both too and from work I’d probably get through 20 books a year—I swear! Nowadays it’s down to only two or three, and rarely are they about the sport I already find myself thinking about way too much. (As you may have noticed by the lack of activity around here these last couple of months, I really value the ability to recharge my baseball batteries when the opportunity arises.)
But I can give you a couple of suggestions at least. I got Joe Posnanski’s The Baseball 100 for Christmas and it’s been a great one for someone like me, because while it’s hardly a small book, each player’s capsule is self-contained and only a few pages long, so it’s easy to read sporadically. I’ve also lately enjoyed thumbing through The Wit and Wisdom of Yogi Berra, which was a thrift store find a friend gave to me. It’s by Jim Pepe and came from St. Martin’s Press, an outfit that advertises titles like Blanche Knott’s Truly Tasteless Jokes and Read My Lips: The Wit and Wisdom of George Bush in the back of my copy. Light fare, in other words.
As always, I enjoy your writing—and the podcast! After another early post-season exit in 2023 that surprisingly managed to leave a worse taste in the mouths of Blue Jays’ fans than the 2022 meltdown loss against Seattle did, they’ve made a less than stellar splash in the free agent market so far this off-season. Our season tickets are in the 200 level and prices are largely unaffected by the renovations that have been taking place throughout the rest of the park, but others are not so fortunate. I don’t think anyone could suggest that the team as it stands now is better than it was at the end of the season. Any sense how the disappointing off season is impacting the team’s need to sell those fancy/super expensive and exclusive new seats?
Other than making a push for Ohtani, Atkins has done nothing this off-season to win back a very disenchanted fan base. And that was before heading to arbitration with Vladdy over less than $2 million. Interested in your thoughts on where things stand now with the team. — Cheryl F.
Thanks so much for the question and the support, Cheryl! From as far as I can tell, the Jays seem to be doing just fine when it comes to selling season tickets. I don’t know for sure, and there are probably better ways to do this, but I picked out a random game in April—against the Royals on the 30th—and took a look at which seats were available.
As you can see below, there definitely are plenty. But I think what's important here, at least if you're the Jays, is that all those premium seats behind home plate and the dugouts, and all the boxes are full up—which is the case for any other game I looked at, too. And not only that, I counted up the remaining available seats at the tops of those sections and it only amounted to just over 200. A ton of lower bowl seats seem to already have been sold, so I'd say that's a pretty good indicator of health. But, like I say, this is an imperfect way of looking into it.
As for the other stuff, since you submitted your question the Jays have added Justin Turner and Yariel Rodríguez, but I suspect that doesn't really move the needle for you. As I've indicated above, it doesn't for me. They're nice enough moves, but I still think they need another bat pretty clearly. Dan Vogelbach ain't it—though, as my Blue Jays Happy Hour cohost Nick Ashbourne (yes, we'll be back this season, as I mentioned earlier this week when I chatted about all things Jays with Matt Robinson on his Tall Can Audio podcast) tells us in a Friday piece for Sportsnet, he's still probably a better bench option than Spencer Horwitz.
That said, this is still a very good team, and there still are players out there that can help. But even failing that, they're probably not in nearly as awful a spot as a lot of people seem to think. Last year's team was better than its record and the playoff exit showed, so to fall back a little bit doesn't necessarily doom them. Especially because I think Ross is right to believe that better seasons are in store for guys like Springer, Kirk, Varsho, and especially Vlad, who—as many suspected—was playing through pain for most of 2023.
I'd like to have seen them do more and I can't blame anyone for being down on where they're at—being projected to be about 50/50 to make the playoffs isn’t good enough—or on the prospect of watching more great pitching get wasted by an anaemic offence. But the ingredients are there for them to be very good with just a little more—and more timely—hitting. It could be a very fun year. And if it's not, figuring out how to clean up the mess will get very interesting—and probably not very much fun if you're Atkins.
(As for the Vlad arbitration thing, that’s completely normal, completely understandable, and I have no idea why fans have been so weird about it except that it seems like another good way to bash the front office. You don’t just give away millions of dollars when you don’t have to. And don’t forget, it’s not just about the $2 million. It’s basically impossible for a player to have his salary lowered through the arbitration process, so that $2 million would have been baked into next year’s contract as well.
In general, I think people worry far too much about this stuff. It makes easy fodder for mid-winter radio call-in shows and busywork for writers that don’t have anything better to do, but the number of players who outright refuse to sign with a team long-term because of something that happened at an arbitration hearing is incredibly low. Marcus Stroman popped off just about as publicly as anyone ever has about his hearing years ago, then got Toronto’s skyline tattooed on his chest and was practically begging for an extension. It just doesn’t matter.)
Months later question to a mailbag post that’s already written by why the hell not.
On Yariel Rodriguez, is it unique that he pitched abroad then was able to return to the Cuban national team for the WBC? Or are things less dictatorial than they once were? — 6monther
Thanks so much for the question and the support, man! Yes, Cuba has become less draconian in terms of allowing guys who have defected from the country in search of big league dollars to play for its national team, but they haven’t wholly embraced everyone who has left.
Luis Robert, Yoán Moncada, and Roenis Elías were big leaguers who played for them at the WBC last spring, but guys like Yordan Alvarez, Jorge Soler, and the Gurriels were not. Some players, like Adolis García and Randy Arozarena (who, of course, played for Mexico) turned down invitations for various reasons—including past treatment from the Cuban federation.
As James Wagner of the New York Times explained in a piece last spring with all kinds of great background on the subject, in the case of many players the issue was the formation in 2022 of a group of Cuban players abroad, who had hoped to be able to represent their homeland despite not being recognized by the Cuban government. This didn't go over well. Someone like Moncada, on the other hand, left for the United States with the government's permission, and therefore seems to have remained in their good graces.
It's murky!
How do the Jays look financially with KK and IFK in terms of proximity to CBT and previous years spending? How much money might be left for upgrades? — Chris L.
Well, there was enough left to add Justin Turner, Yariel Rodríguez, and to take a look at Vogelbach and Escobar. But as easy as it is for fans to bang the drum for the team to keep adding, the reality may be that they’re close to the limits of what Rogers will allow.
Rogers cutting off the taps should never be a barrier to this team’s success, and it feels especially weird to talk about this year, considering their pursuit of Ohtani (who?). But the rumour always was—and it felt true—that there was both a “unicorn” budget and a more modest one. Maybe that’s simply where they’re at. (Hopefully that’s just what they want Scott Boras to believe.)
As it stands today, heading into the first weekend of Grapefruit League action, the Jays’ CBT payroll number according to RosterResource is $249 million. This puts them above the first luxury tax threshold ($237 million in 2024) and less than $10 million south of the second on ($257 million).
RosterResource had their 2023 CBT number at $246 million, which put them in a similar position relative to last year's second threshold ($253 million). Maybe that's a line they won't cross? Would be dumb if you ask me!
Hey Andrew, enjoy the site as always. If it’s not too late to submit a question, I think I have an interesting one. For all the talk of the player development complex are we sure how effective it is? Looking at the Jays prospect lists, it’s not great. How much time and development would it need to show if what the Jays are doing is effective. The Tiedemann story is great, but where are the rest of the development stories? Maybe I don’t know enough about player development, but I don’t think many of the prospects that have been traded are flying up prospects lists. I dunno, maybe this offseason’s disappointment has me looking for holes with this FO, but I wonder if they aren’t so great at development after all.
Keep up the great work! — Landon
Thanks so much for the question and the support, Landon! Yeah, I think it’s much too early to question, or even really attempt to evaluate, the effectiveness of the PDC. But I do think I should remind here that we talked about the Jays’ facilities incessantly as a selling point early in the winter. I think that holds true despite the fiasco that ensued not long after Ohtani (who?) paid Dunedin a visit. To me, that makes the building a win regardless—thank you once again to the taxpayers of Pinellas County!—even if it hasn’t immediately started turning mid- or late-round picks into stars (something that is, uh, really hard to do).
This is not to say that the Jays’ development system, or their drafting, is beyond reproach. However, I do think you’re being a little harsh here. We’ve seen some notable velocity increases coming out of that building already. And as far as individuals go, there’s quite a bit to like. Tiedemann is a top, top prospect. Gabriel Moreno and Alejandro Kirk have been real success stories. Alek Manoah doesn’t look like one now, but sure did a year ago. Davis Schneider looks like one of those late picks who could really have a solid MLB career. Orelvis Martinez is still just barely 22. Chad Dallas is an interesting guy with some helium. Addison Barger is still intriguing despite a poor 2023. Many of the lower minors guys are very interesting and could easily pop at some point. Guys like Allen Roden and Damiano Palmegiani could be success stories too. Hell, Nate Pearson’s new splitter could even put him back on the prospect map somewhat.
You’re right that the system isn’t great at the moment, and I don’t think it would be elite if you added back some of the guys they’ve dealt in recent seasons, but it would certainly be better. Kloffenstein and Robberse, Jordan Groshans, Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin, Gunnar Hoglund and Kevin Smith, Nick Frasso, Samad Taylor and Max Castillo, Kendall Williams and Ryan Noda, Riley Adams. Those guys aren’t all considered prospects at this point, and the ones that are aren’t exactly rocketing up anyone’s top 100, but there’s a good mix of talent and lottery tickets around the league that have come out of this organization. More, I think, than it maybe feels like on the surface.
It could have been better, but they’ve been mostly fine, all things considered. Which sounds like just about a perfect epitaph for this front office as a whole, if you ask me.
⚾ Want to support without going through Substack? You could always send cash to stoeten@gmail.com on Paypal or via Interac e-Transfer. I assure you I won’t say no. ⚾
Fuck Bauer.
You're so fucking rational and that's why I'm a fan. Glad your battery is recharged and looking forward to your full powered insight. And ya, fuck Bauer.