Mail bag: The coldest of stoves
On trade ideas, centre field, lefty bats, Bo's splits, Kris Bryant, Michael Conforto, Nelson Cruz, José Ramírez, ZiPS, and more!
Baseball’s hot stove may be colder than the weather outside right now, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a whole lot on the mind of Blue Jays fans at the moment as the season theoretically inches closer. Last week I asked the site’s paid subscribers to submit questions for this edition of the mail bag, and as usual they didn’t disappoint. So let’s get at it!
But first, I’d like to say that , as usual, I could barely get everyone’s questions in before running into Substack’s post length limit, so thank you so much to everybody who submitted one and my apologies for not being able to get to them all. And thank you once again to those who subscribe.
⚾ Speaking of which, before we get going, please indulge me while I attempt to make a living. Because if you’ve been sent here by a friend, or you are an existing subscriber who would like to move to a paid membership so you can comment, ask questions the next time I open up the ol’ mail bag, or just plain old support what I do, click below to upgrade or become a subscriber — paid or otherwise. I will be eternally grateful if you do! ⚾
As always, I have not read any of Griff’s answers…
Am I wrong to think that I want Kris Bryant to play for the Jays? If I'm not wrong, what are the chances, you think, this happens? — CrazyCatTim
I don’t think you’re wrong, I just have a bit of a hard time seeing how his next contract lines up with what the Blue Jays are trying to do long-term. Bryant is no longer the elite player he was from 2015 to 2017, yet he’s still very good and only turned 30 a week ago. He’d be a great addition to the 2022 Jays, no doubt. But for how much longer and at what cost?
Jon Becker of FanGraphs compiles free agent predictions from various big name sources into a spreadsheet and on average the ones he uses (including his own, MLBTR's, Jim Bowden’s, FanGraphs', FanGraphs' crowdsourced predictions, etc.) have Bryant signing a six-year, $142 million deal this winter. It goes without saying that Rogers could pay this, and Bryant deserves every penny he can get, but I’m just not sure that the best way for the Jays to spent the bulk of their pre-Vlad/Bo-free-agency competitive window is being unable to upgrade on a player whose best years are so clearly behind him — especially with George Springer already in tow.
Bryant produced a 115 wRC+ over 62 games in the second half of 2019. He had a rough 2020, mustering just a 75 wRC+ in 34 games. In 2021 his marks were 126 in the first half and 118 in the second half. That's good, but six years good? Five? Since the 2019 All-Star break his 114 wRC+ puts him in a tie for 54th among 103 qualified hitters, right alongside Jeimer Canderlario, Austin Riley, and Ian Happ. That makes this a tough one for me, and I suspect it will be a tough one for the Jays too.
That all said, there are only so many ways for the Jays to significantly upgrade an already strong 2022 roster, and this is certainly one of them. As much as the price and term may give us sticker shock, deals are getting bigger all the time. An average annual value south of $24 million per season is more and more becoming the cost of doing business with good-not-great players these days. Consider that there are two years left on Hyun Jin Ryu's contract at $20 million per, he'll be 35 in March, was awful at the end of last season, and it really doesn't seem like such a big deal. Maybe it would be fine!
Still, I think finding an elite, shorter-term solution via the trade route seems like a much better fit for the Jays' and their infield right now. Hey, and speaking of...
It's all 'Jose Ramirez and Matt Chapman' this and 'Oakland starters that' — give me an outside the box trade target for the Jays at 3B, RP and 2B (please haha). Not necessarily a star, just some plain ol' good fits. — Dan G.
I mean, I appreciate the question, but the thing about the obvious candidates is that they’re obvious for a reason. The examples you give are good players on mediocre teams that have well-understood motivations for potentially wanting to trade them before they get even more expensive or reach free agency and walk. Certainly there are plenty more excellent players across the league who play positions of need for the Jays, but, honestly, I find that they’re just not really worth thinking or talking about because either the likelihood that their teams will move them, or the likelihood that the Jays would even want them, is so low.
That doesn’t mean transactions don’t surprise us all the time. For example, last summer I don’t think anybody saw Adam Cimber and Corey Dickerson for Joe Panik materializing. Frankly, I’m still amazed that a was a deal that happened. But you’d drive yourself mad trying to figure out which of the scores of guys like that around the league could possibly, maybe, potentially, theoretically be available with the right amount of financial lubricant. And if you did so you’d spend an unbelievable amount of time thinking about transactions that will never, ever take place!
Not to skirt the question — though I suppose that’s what I’m doing — but rather than combing through every team’s roster in search of some kind of a clever dark horse acquisition I’d rather use my time and this space to declare for the umpteenth time that the Jays need to find a way to go and trade for José fucking Ramírez!
Clever trades are cool and all, but the Jays don’t need a bunch of solid bargain adds. They have a strong foundation, limited roster space available, and need to add impact talent. That’s someone like Ramírez, Chapman, Bryant, Ketel Marte — all the guys we’ve heard of. Not a lot of others fit the bill.
Springer is great, maybe too great for CF. Should we be looking for a plus defender for CF to keep Springer in the lineup. Pache, Kiermaier, Robles? A Devon White type or — yelp — Pillar? Can Dasan Brown be that player? — Jay M
First off, thanks for the question. Second off, no, Dasan Brown can’t be that player — or if he can it won’t be for a long, long time. Brown turned 20 in September, has barely played pro ball, is still impossibly raw, and was exactly the kind of player who was hurt most by the lack of a minor league season in 2020. He needs reps if he’s ever going to become someone who can play in the big leagues, and right now he’s nowhere close to that. He slashed .212/.310/.323 in Low-A this year!
The idea of bringing in a glove-first centre field type, though, isn’t a bad one. It’s also one the Jays reportedly have had already. They apparently spoke to the Brewers about a Randal Grichuk for Jackie Bradley Jr. swap earlier in the off-season, before Bradley was sent back to the Red Sox for Hunter Renfroe instead. A lefty hitter and an excellent defender, Bradley would have been a pretty decent fit in a vacuum, even though he’s been a poor hitter in all but one of the last five seasons, and was especially putrid (35 wRC+) in 2021. Clearly the Jays see the need for a guy like that.
The thing is, unless they can find another way to foist Grichuk, and his contract, onto some other team, the Jays just don’t have a lot of room to add one.
Honestly, though, I think that between Springer, Teoscar Hernández, and Grichuk, they have enough on the roster to cover centre capably enough for another year. Beyond those three I’d imagine help could come from within, likely in the form of Josh Palacios or minor league signees Mallex Smith and Nathan Lukes (a former Cleveland pick who has been with the Rays since 2016, had a nice year in Triple-A in 2021, including an impressively low 12.6% strikeout rate, and can play all three outfield positions).
That, to me, seems fine. Not great, but fine. Finding a long-term solution in centre is definitely not something they can lose sight of, and adding a glove-first guy at some point along the way would definitely help, but I wouldn’t call this a priority area for them at the moment.
I’m trying to piece together what the Jays’ rotation may look like. Obviously we’ve got Gausman and Berrios as 1/2, Ryu and Manoah as 3/4, leaving Pearson/Stripling/TBD as #5/Depth. Obviously you want to give Gausman and Berrios the ball as often as possible. The others however seem like they may benefit from some extra rest, as Ryu fell off last year as the season wore on, Manoah has never pitched a full MLB season, Pearson has barely pitched, and Stripling is what he is.
Is there some way to create a sort of 6 man rotation that keeps 1/2 on regular rest but the others have flexibility built in to skip starts or piggyback with each other in order to maintain a higher performance level throughout the whole year? It’s far from traditional, I know, but seems like the Jays are open to experimenting from time to time.
While I’m dreaming, signing a pitcher like Kikuchi who fell off a bit at the end of last season who may also benefit from an adjusted schedule would fit into a weird plan like this perfectly, although he’s probably going to be too expensive if/when this lockout nonsense ends. — Scott
Thanks for the question, Scott. I’m not sure I agree on Kikuchi actually. He had a strong May and an outstanding June last year, but those are the only months he’s ever had in the big leagues with an ERA below 4.00. I’m interested in him as well, but I must admit that much of that probably stems from the hype with which he came to North America back in 2019. The reality is that he just hasn’t pithed well here — a 4.97 ERA and 4.93 FIP over 365 2/3 big league innings in a pretty favourable home environment — and I think he’ll regret turning down the $13 million player option for 2022 in his contract with the Mariners.
As for the piggybacking/six-man rotation thing, this comes up literally every year — and for good reason, it’s definitely an interesting thought — but teams almost never do anything like it. I think that’s mostly because they feel their bullpens are already stretched too thin (which we know is true by the way they churn through relievers using minor league options and stints on the Injured List), and because starters are difficult to find and keep healthy, and rely so much on routine (and not just on game days, but on every day between starts).
I’m not opposed to experimentation, but I’ve gotta say, I think a regular old five-man rotation with the odd start skipped to keep guys fresh or manage innings is the way they will, and should, go.
How important is it to get more lefty bats? Is it a priority? I guess if Jays were in on Seager that says yes. Take on somebody else's problem? Shogo Akiyama for Grichuk? Moose? Could Didi look ok at third and backup Bo? Or big bucks for DH Freeman? — Jay M
Well, I think the fact that the Jays were reportedly in on Seager probably more says that they recognize that elite free agents at premium positions who haven’t turned 28 yet are extremely valuable. But clearly adding another lefty hitter has to be done, as the only current ones on the club’s 40-man roster are Cavan Biggio, Reese McGuire, and Josh Palacios. The question is how.
At the top of the list is adding an elite, switch-hitting infielder like José Ramírez. At the bottom is, well, probably eating money to send Randal Grichuk to the Reds for the privilege of being able to pay Akiyama — who hasn’t hit in the big leagues at all — $8 million in salary in 2022 plus a $1 million “assignment bonus” he’d be due for getting traded.
I’ve noted around here before that the Jays had the fewest LHB vs. RHP plate appearances in baseball last season by a long shot, yet still managed to score the third most runs in baseball. In other words, a balanced everyday lineup is more a luxury than a necessity. Still, if they don't find an everyday guy who hits from the left side, they'll have to find some situational options — a tough ask in the short bench era, which led to the so-so additions of Corey Dickerson and Jarrod Dyson last season, as well as more at-bats than anyone wanted to see from the likes of Reese McGuire and Breyvic Valera.
I don’t think the move is to throw money at the problem just for the sake of adding a lefty, though. Nor do I think they should reject someone who fits their plans well just because he hits from the right side. Bench bats from either side aren’t difficult to come by, and while that may not result in an optimal lineup, they can’t let perfect be the enemy of good on this. Fielding a similar roster to the one they ran out in 2021 would be an outstanding outcome from this winter, warts and all.
Hi Stoeten, I just bought a membership because I wanted to ask a dumb question. Also because you just have the best fucking Jays material. I met you once in the 500's and man, not all heroes wear capes.
Imagine that the Rogers coup takes another wild twist — like, say it turns out Ed Rogers has some sordid past, or something else crazier than a butt dial. As a result, Rogers stupidly divests itself of the Jays. Who is your new dream owner(s) and why?
Zero alcohol was consumed in the forming of this question. — Graham
Hahaha. Oh I definitely believe you about the alcohol, Graham. Totally none involved, I’m sure. Regardless, thank you for the question, and for the support!
This is probably a boring answer, but doesn’t it have to be MLSE? Apologies for the soccer digression (I try to keep those to a minimum around here!), but look at the deal TFC just pulled off with Lorenzo Insigne. Luring a player of that calibre — in late December the Guardian ranked him number 62 on their list of the top 100 male footballers in the world — to MLS is an incredible coup. That they’ve reportedly shattered, by more than double, the record for the highest salary ever paid to an MLS player to make it happen, and will pay him more per year than 21 teams paid their entire rosters in 2021, is equally impressive.
Don’t you kinda want to see what an ownership group like that would do in a sport with no salary cap?
Hey Andrew — I haven't heard much (any) commentary on Bo's platoon splits. He murdered lefties to the tune of .950 OPS / 157 OPS+ But his production against righties was more solid than great: .790 OPS / 117 OPS+. Is this of any concern when we try project his ceiling? Any idea what his minor league splits look like? — Player to be Named Later
I mean, a 117 OPS+ is pretty good for a shortstop, especially in his weak split! I use wRC+ instead, mostly just because FanGraphs’ leaderboards are much more searchable and sortable, and it has Bichette at an even worse 111 in the split in 2021, but I don’t think even that is necessarily so bad.
For one thing, a 111 wRC+ would rank 12th among the top 31 shortstops by plate appearances in 2021. Add in Bichette’s success against lefties and his 122 wRC+ overall ranked seventh, trailing six pretty incredible talents at the position: Fernando Tatís Jr., Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Brandon Crawford, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts. There’s no shame in being at the bottom of that group.
For another thing, against right-handers in 2019 he had a 126 wRC+, and in 2020 he put up a 120 mark, so there’s a little more ceiling there. That said, in general he’s had a bit of a platoon split for a while now, having produced a .785 OPS against right-handers in Double-A back in 2018, and a .825 mark against lefties.
But I guess what I’d say is: do we really even need to worry about ceiling here? Five-win shortstops — OK, technically Bichette was worth 4.9 WAR per FanGraphs in 2021 — don’t exactly grow on trees. Since the start of 2011 there have been just 29 such seasons, put together by just 16 different players. (Technically 31 and 18, if, as FanGraphs does, you count Ben Zobrist in 2012 and Alex Bregman in 2019 — which you probably shouldn’t!). And according to ZiPS, only Tatis, Correa, Turner, and Wander Franco have higher projections among shortstops for 2022 than Bichette does.
If there are a few seasons in his career where he reaches a level beyond what he did in 2021 that would be incredible — and with some refinements to his approach, or even just a bounce back in BABIP up to the levels he reached in 2019 and 2020, I think there absolutely could be. But if this is what Bichette is, that’s fantastic too. I’m not really seeing the worry here.
Pardon me if you’ve covered this in the past, but what are your thoughts on Josh Harrison? I can see his versatility and leadership as qualities Atkins and Montoyo would love. I like him as a player as well but what do the numbers show? — Daniel L.
Harrison would be a pass for me. He just doesn't move the needle. He's bobbed around league average at the plate since his one great season back in 2014. Versatile, but not a guy who you'd want to put at shortstop or in the outfield. Hits from the right side on a team that, unless it's an elite hitter, could much better use a lefty.
He’s a guy that, if this was the winter between 2018 and 2019, or even 2019 and 2020, I think the Jays might have had some interest in. A fine enough player. But right now they've got to be aiming higher.
Recently on Twitter you mentioned you were meh on the prospect of signing Michael Conforto, and I have to say I’m a bit surprised. To me, Conforto is the perfect kind of lineup-diversifying bat the Jays would do well to add. Last year, by far his worst in the majors, he still managed a .340 OBP en route to being a (very slightly) above-league-average hitter despite a below-career-average BABIP. In each of the four prior seasons, he posted OBP and wRC+ numbers that ranged from strong to elite and was an average-ish defender (though admittedly trending down).
On the negative side, I understand questions about priorities and available at bats with the roster as it currently stands, and if he really is seeking a long term contract, then meh indeed. But if he could be tempted by a higher AAV three-year deal or a lucrative one-year prove it deal (and his addition is coupled with or makes a LGJ/Teo move easier), sign me the hell up for the high OBP lefty with pretty good power numbers, right?
Thanks, as always, for continuing to attempt to churn out content in the dead zone, and Happy New Years. Cheers to you and yours. — littlenut
Thanks for the kind words, and the question. And happy new year to you and yours as well!
As for Conforto, I must admit I was probably a little too cool on that idea, mostly because I assumed he’d require more term and dollars than maybe seems likely. A one-year “show me” deal would make sense and I could be for that if he ends up in a Semien situation later on in the winter — which, to my surprise, is exactly what MLB Trade Rumors predicted when ranking him 32nd on their list of the top 50 free agents this winter. (One year, $20 million was their guess.)
Honestly, if the Jays ended up landing him for three years I’m sure I’d be able to find a way to look on the bright side of it, too. But the thing is, you bring up Conforto’s “pretty good power numbers,” but those definitely were not there in 2021. Part of that is down to a hamstring injury he suffered through in the first part of the season, but 14 home runs in 479 plate appearances really isn't great. George Springer had hamstring trouble too, yet he hit 22 in 348 PA, for example.
Conforto’s .153 ISO was the lowest of his career, as was his .384 slugging percentage — a mark that was 27th worst of the 161 batters with at least 450 PA. That, to me, is a bit of a concern, especially when we're talking about a guy whose average exit velocity was in the 35th percentile in 2021, and who has been in the bottom half of the league in each of the last four seasons by that metric.
As you say, though, the track record is quite strong, even if some of the underlying numbers are suspect. And the Jays certainly were able to help Semien tap into a bunch of home run power despite similarly pedestrian exit velocity numbers. But as a longer-term investment I’m a little bit wary, especially because you’re right that his defence is a problem. The metrics didn’t like him any better than Randal Grichuk in centre in 2020, and in 2021 they liked him less. I’m also not quite as enamored of the idea of moving one of Teoscar Hernández or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as you seem to be.
Plus, as I mentioned above, I just don’t think finding a left-handed hitter who can play every day is a necessity here, and I think the limited dollars the Jays have left to spend would be better put to use on the infield or a true slugger than another centre-fielder-in-name-only. It could work, and I could look really foolish here if he has a great bounce-back season (which is very much in the realm of possibility), but he’s just not a guy I’m salivating over the idea of.
What needs to happen for the Jays to plan on playing Vlad at third base more than two innings per season and how would the front office try to justify such a terrible decision? — Adrian
Sorry, are we looking to get mad here at the front office for hypothetically trying to justify something they’d never actually do? Not sure I get that. Anyway, I don’t know, maybe if he came to camp looking like he did when he was 17?
Hey Griff,
Do you think the Jays would consider adding a DH like Nelson Cruz this year? I know that they like rotating guys through the DH slot for rest, but wouldn’t giving guys an actual day off just be better?
For one, the only Jays that project (by Steamer) to have a better wOBA than Cruz (.353) are Vlad (.414), Springer (.357), Bo (.357), and Kirk (.359; but I’ll believe that when I see it). It seems that as the roster stands the bulk of the DH at bats would go to outfielders with Grichuk taking a spot in the outfield for the day. Even if it means giving Bo, Vlad, and Springer actual days off, replacing those Grichuk at-bats with Cruz would be a huge improvement. It also must better better rest wise to give those guys actual days off.
So do you think that this would be a strong consideration? Or do the ghosts of Kendrys Morales and Springer’s leg weigh too heavy? — Kevin
I honestly don’t think so. When the hot stove gets firing again it’s assumed that the NL will have adopted the DH rule, which will open up a whole lot of job opportunities for Cruz and drive his price up. Then there’s the fact that, for the reasons you point out, he’s just not an ideal fit for the way the Jays prefer their lineup to function.
George Springer started just 40 games in the outfield in 2021. He played 78 games in total, meaning that if they’d gone this route last season there would have been 38 games where the team would have been forced to choose between sitting one of Cruz or Springer. Not great!
Ideally Springer will be healthier in 2022, but what happened with him last year shows why having a DH who can play somewhere else on the field is much preferred — especially when you have an MVP-calibre first baseman also to factor in.
Also preferred: being able to keep your best bats in the lineup while still otherwise giving those guys the day off. It may not be quite as good as getting a full day of rest, but even just four or five games worth of missing at-bats from each of Bichette, Springer, and Guerrero over the course of the season can be significant. You really want them in there as much as absolutely possible.
One option, if they do end up looking at more of a straight DH-type, would be Kyle Schwarber. Not only does Schwarber have a better wOBA projection (.357) than Cruz, he fills a need by virtue of hitting from the left side, and can also be used in the outfield on days when they want to rotate Springer into the DH spot, when Gurriel moves to first base to give Vlad a break (as happened on occasion in 2021), when Bichette moves to DH (as he did in 11 games last season), etc.
Cruz has had a great career, but another thing worth considering on this is that he really fell off after being traded from the Twins to the Rays in the middle of last season. A sample of 55 games isn’t a lot to make big pronouncements from, but his 96 wRC+ in Tampa was well below expectations and is a much bigger red flag than usual when you’re talking about a guy who turned 41 in July.
I think the Jays pass on this one, and I think they’ll be correct to.
Hey Stoets,
Really appreciate you and have been following you around since the DJF/Getting Blanked days. You’re my favourite sports writer.
I’m interested in Seiya Suzuki as a well-rounded bat. Patience driven approach, OBP, power, etc.
He seems to get good defensive reviews in the corner outfields (just won another gold glove in Japan) so, even if that’s overselling his defensive impact, he should be an upgrade on Gurriel/Teo.
The Athletic’s Jim Bowden lists Suzuki as OF/INF, but I have seen no reference to his INF viability anywhere else. Have you?
Also, has the ship sailed on bringing Gurriel Jr. back into the infield mix? There is an obvious hole on the infield and I don’t recall seeing this discussed this off-season. It seems like his skill set could make third base his best defensive position.
Thanks for all you do! — Joss
Thanks so much for the kind words and the question! Suzuki is definitely an intriguing guy. He'll be just 27 for the bulk of next season and plays very good defence, as you note. At the plate he's got good power and plate discipline, belting 38 home runs for Hiroshima in 2021 while walking 88 times and striking out just 89 times in 538 plate appearances while on his way to producing an outstanding .317/.433/.639 slash line.
Will that translate to better production than Teoscar Hernández, a literal two-time Silver Slugger in the major leagues? I absolutely do not think so, but it’s fun to dream.
I obviously can't speak to his defensive prowess, but I can tell you that, while Bowden is correct that Suzuki does have experience at third base and shortstop, it's less than 75 games at either spot over the course of his whole NPB career, and he's been exclusively an outfielder since 2015. I don't think he's going to be an option there.
So, considering he's really only an outfielder — and a right-handed hitting one at that — I'm not sure the presumed defensive upgrade on Hernández and Gurriel offsets the uncertainty that comes with Suzuki's bat.
The idea of Gurriel moving back to the infield is also intriguing, but if that ship hasn't already sailed, I think it's probably sailed here in Toronto. If I was a non-contending team trying to trade for him I would definitely do so thinking of possibly giving him some run at second base — not third, given the throwing problems he had at shortstop back in 2018. But I think the Jays have reached the point where they need firmer solutions than that. They really shouldn't be going into a season planning on experimenting with everyday players like they might have been able to do a couple years ago.
Now, the fact that the Jays seem to headed toward entering the season with a Biggio/Espinal platoon at one of their infield spots may give them a little leeway here. There's a theoretical path for a Gurriel move back to the infield to happen naturally, especially if they sign someone like Schwarber (a DH who can play a little outfield, as opposed to Suzuki, an outfielder you hope can hit at a reasonable level). But a whole bunch of things would have to go wrong before that’s a realistic consideration, and I don’t particularly want to think about that.
How many statues of the Rogers family will the new stadium renovations include? (kidding, kidding)
Honest question — do the Jays need to do anything to draw fans back to the ballpark? The lockout's sapping a lot of the excitement for the club, and we lost our slugging second baseman (chicks dig the long ball after all). — Gabe L.
I don’t think so in the slightest. If we’re dragging out old baseball tropes from the 90s, I think Seinfeld’s “cheering for clothes” bit is probably more apt here. Semien was great, obviously, and I don’t want to take anything away from him, but losing him is not going to have an impact as long as the Jays are still going to be fighting for a playoff spot in 2021 — and they absolutely will be doing that. The fact that they’re almost certainly going to add another shiny offensive piece to the puzzle only makes the impact of that loss on potential attendance or excitement even less.
As for the lockout, while I absolutely think that the way MLB owners constantly take fans for granted has a non-zero chance of coming back to bite them at some point, I imagine it will be a slow bleed-out more than a mass extinction event. Once the Jays are playing and winning and one of the most exciting teams in baseball again, I have no doubt that the fans will come back, including the vast majority of ones who claim they won’t.
In fact, the idea that the strike of 1994 had a significant negative impact on attendance is actually a bit of a myth. The league averaged 26,563 fans per game in 1992 according to the data at Baseball Reference. In 1993 that number went up considerably, to 30,965, but a big chunk of that was the addition of extremely well-attended expansion clubs in Denver and Miami. Plus, that year was a bit of an outlier because of big gains for emerging 90s powers in San Francisco, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Houston.
Average attendance in 1994 stayed high, coming in at 31,240, but keep in mind that the season ended that year in the first half of August. A ton of low-attendance games in cities where the teams were out of the playoff race were lost because of that, and those would have likely deflated the average in a not insignificant way.
The average did go down to 25,048 in 1995, with year over year drops in every market except Boston, Anaheim and Cleveland. But you'll note that the number isn't actually very far off the 1992 average — and only once in the history of the game had average attendance ever been higher than it was in 1992. That year was 1991. In fact, average attendance in 1995 — the year coming out of the strike that cancelled the World Series! — was higher than every year in baseball history up until 1988.
Then, in 1996, average attendance rose to 26,509, or almost exactly the same as 1992 (i.e. the last year before the expansion bump of 1993). In '97 it went up to 27,876 — higher than all but the outlier years of 1993 and 1994. And in 1998 it was up again to 29,030.
In other words, growth maybe stagnated a touch, with some major caveats. And certain markets — like this one — obviously were impacted negatively for other reasons (i.e. the team coming to the end of a decade long competitive cycle). But fans didn’t stay away in droves the way the prevailing narrative suggests. At least not at the ballpark. TV numbers may tell a different story.
Was just reading your colleague Nick Ashbourne's column on the production and value offered by the average fifth starter and the proposition that the Jays might just be doing okay in that department with Ross Stripling. I think, though, the question, rather than being if we have an average one — I mean we're shooting higher than that this year right? RIGHT? — should be, what does a fifth starter look like on a championship team?
If Stripling isn't that and would be more valuable in a depth role, who could you see the Jays targeting to round out the starting staff and help to bring home some hardware? — william
Well, I think that the Jays are certainly going to aim higher than Stripling, though less because of his quality and more because they need to pad out the depth behind him a bit more still. It’s probably a good idea to add another competent body to the mix who can slot in with Stripling between the front four and the likes of Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch, Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay, Bowden Francis, and Zach Logue.
But whether that guy actually bumps Stripling out of the rotation or not maybe doesn’t matter all that much. And if allows the Jays to add in a more significant way in another area of need — third base or the bullpen, for example — then I think that’s absolutely what they should do. Because the thing is, Stripling would look right at home among the fifth starters on some of best teams in the game in 2021.
As Nick's piece mentioned, deciding who was a team's fifth starter isn't always obvious. For example, Atlanta gave 27 starts combined to Huascar Ynoa and Touki Toussaint. They also gave 23 starts to Drew Smyly, in addition to their top three of Charlie Morton, Max Fried, and Ian Anderson. If you want to call Toussaint (4.50 ERA, 5.79 FIP) or Smyly (4.48 ERA, 5.11 FIP) the fifth starter, that's pretty comparable to what the Jays got out of Stripling's as a starter (4.69 ERA, 5.02 FIP).
The Rays gave just under 280 combined innings to Ryan Yarbrough and Michael Wacha, both of whom had ERAs over 5.00 and FIPs above 4.45. The Red Sox' fourth and fifth starters were Garrett Richards (4.87 ERA, 4.72 FIP) and Martin Pérez (4.74 ERA, 4.82 FIP). The Cardinals had two of their six most-used starters produce FIPs above 5.10, and another, Carlos Martinez, produce a 6.23 ERA and a 4.76 FIP. And though he didn't start the season taking the fifth turn in their rotation, the White Sox' fifth best starter, Dallas Keuchel, produced a 5.28 ERA and a 5.23 FIP.
Now, ERA and FIP are just two metrics I’m using, and that brief rundown was hardly scientific, but I really do think Stripling would be a fine enough fifth starter on an elite team — which is precisely what he was for the Dodgers before the Jays acquired him.
Still, I think we both agree that the Jays could really use someone else like that, and we’ve seen in the past how they’ve tried to add those sorts of arms. Steven Matz, Chase Anderson, Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray, and Stripling himself are recent examples of, essentially, depth arms that the Jays have acquired. All via trade, and none with an especially high cost.
Which of those sorts may be available this winter is a little tougher to suss out than some of the higher profile guys the Jays could have interested in. We all know, or at least hope, that Sonny Gray of the Reds could still be a possibility in trade, or one of the A’s starters like Chris Bassitt or Sean Manaea, or one of the Marlins’ many young arms. A couple other names to watch, I think, are Joe Ross of the Nationals (4.17 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 108 IP, 9.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9), Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks (4.44 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 158 IP, 7.4 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9), or Kyle Freeland of the Rockies (4.33 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 120 2/3 IP, 7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9) all three of whom are impending free agents on go-nowhere teams.
Free agency is a little trickier because the Jays would likely need to give someone an assurance of a rotation spot and a big league deal in order to get him to sign, but there are a few names that could fit — and I think there is probably enough urgency for the club to add another arm this winter that they might actually choose to spend some real dollars to do so, unlike in previous years.
Carlos Rodón might only land a high-AAV, shorter-term deal, which could put the Jays in play if they can handle the injury risk that he carries. At the right price Zack Greinke could be an option. Despite his underwhelming MLB career so far, I’d give Kikuchi a look. And among some of the less talked-about free agents out there are the oft-injured Danny Duffy (2.51 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 61 IP, 9.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9), plus Johnny Cueto (4.08 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 114 2/3 IP, 7.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9), Tyler Anderson (4.53 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 167 IP, 7.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9), or Michael Pineda (3.62 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 109 1/3 IP, 7.2 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9).
They’ll find someone.
If you had to pick between adding a second baseman or third baseman, which would you pick? This is heavily tied to who is available and what the Jays have to work with (Biggio, Espinal, Smith) but do you lean either way at a push? Happy new year and keep up the great work, it was a real joy in 2021 — noah v.
Happy new year! Thanks for the kind words and the question, man. I can tell you that I require absolutely no hesitation in saying that I think a third baseman would be a better addition. Not that a second baseman would be bad, necessarily. But I think that Cavan Biggio, as the lefty-hitting part of a tandem (though likely not a straight platoon) with Santiago Espinal, is going to see a lot of time at whichever of those two positions the Jays don’t fill from elsewhere, and I really don’t want to ever see Biggio at third base.
Granted, he wasn’t at his healthiest in 2021, which is when the bulk of his innings at third have come, but Biggio didn’t pass the eye test nor do his advanced metrics point to a future at third either. In 1,056 2/3 career innings at second, Biggio has a +2 DRS and a +0.6 UZR (+1.2 UZR/150). Meanwhile, in 492 2/3 career innings at third he as a -2 DRS and a -4.0 UZR (-9.6 UZR/150).
The Jays would still be fine they added a second baseman instead, I’m sure. Espinal certainly looked the part at third last season, and depending on who is on the mound, Biggio could still play there from time to time. But adding a third baseman would be rather perfect, I think.
Andrew,
I appreciate all of your efforts to keep us informed and interested during the lockout. A question: who on the Jays do you believe will most exceed the expectations of the experts for next year? — Paul
Thanks so much the question and the kind words man. To answer it, I guess I’d say that it depends on who you mean by the experts. If you mean some internet blowhard like me, I’d say Cavan Biggio is a pretty good bet. If you mean someone — or something — more objective, you’d probably be better off picking Teoscar Hernández.
Why do I say that? Because last Thursday, FanGraphs and Dan Szymborski released their ZiPS projections for the 2021 Jays, and the system believes in a big BABIP regression for Hernández that will take him down to a slash line of .268/.324/.505 — still respectable because of the 32 home runs he's projected for, but down from .296/.346/.524, and to a 121 OPS+ from the 133 mark he put up in 2021. Steamer has him even worse: .259/.319/.480, for a 112 wRC+.
Over at Blue Jays Nation last week, Paul Berthelot took a look at some reasons to believe Teoscar is better than his projections suggest — primarily the fact that he has managed to maintain a high BABIP ever since his mid-2019 breakout.
“Teo hits the ball hard, hits it on a line and avoids fly balls, all major contributors to a high BABIP,” Berthelot writes. He also notes Teoscar’s speed, and the fact that his improved strikeout rate was one of the biggest benefactors of the Jays’ team-wide aggressive first-pitch approach in 2021.
There are reasons to believe!
As for other candidates to beat expectations? I’d say Nate Pearson, who I think might actually, finally be healthy now that he’s had surgery for his sports hernia — which should also help him repeat his delivery much better than in 2021. I definitely want to believe in Danny Jansen’s post-injury power surge at the end of the season. Randal Grichuk could hardly be worse than he was in 2021, so he’ll likely exceed expectations by default. I still believe in Hyun Jin Ryu, though many may have understandably been turned off by his late season struggles. And, as I said in my post calling out for questions, I think my Blue Jays Happy Hour cohost Nick made a great point about Ross Stripling in his latest for Sportsnet.
Am I saying the whole goddamn team is going to be good? Yes. Yes I am.
Hey Andrew, loved being a drunk Jays fan when you still had to buy cheap tickets and then move down later in the game to get a good seat.
Maybe this isn't anything, but I have often wondered about opening day 2017, when Josh Donaldson started the game as if healthy and then he wasn't able to throw to first base. I always thought there was something weird about that. I remember Josh and Gibby had a go'round during spring training because the guys were asked not to play music on the field and Josh did it anyway. And he and Gibby went back into the clubhouse for a half hour or so. I always wondered if something happened between them that caused Josh to get hurt and the team just covered it up. Josh didn't seem to get hurt as he threw (and threw away all my hopes for the year. I was crushed, which is why I may have trouble letting it go.)
Just wondering if you heard anything or is it time I joined QAnon. Keep up the good work. — Pat Borders Chaw
Wow, this question certainly took a turn I wasn’t expecting it to. I definitely thought this was going to be a question about Donaldson’s insistence on playing despite the fact that he was clearly hurt.
I’m not sure I’d have had a lot of thoughts on that, and I’ve definitely never heard anything about that spring “drama” (as Sportsnet’s Jeff Blair called it at the time) leading to any sort of a dustup between Gibbons and Donaldson. Though I suppose, given Gibbons’ reputation from his first tenure with the Jays, and Donaldson’s, um, occasional volatility, I can understand why someone might wonder about such things.
Unfortunately for this fantastic and fantastical idea, the timeline just doesn’t work.
First of all, this was the spring of 2018, not 2017, which probably explains why your hopes were so crushed. Confidence wasn’t nearly as high that spring as it had been the year before, with the Jays coming off back-to-back runs to the ALCS. When Donaldson looked so immediately broken it was clearly bad, bad news. The viewing party I was at was like a wake!
Second, and more importantly, the drama between Donaldson and Gibbons happened on March 6th of that year. Donaldson’s shoulder troubles were already well known by that point. A BlueJays.com article on March 3rd noted that Donaldson had been “dealing with minor inflammation in his right throwing shoulder” which to that point had limited him to DH duties. The piece even included a quote from Gibbons acknowledging the matter.
Thanks for your question though. And for the kind words and your longtime support! I’m kinda disappointed that I couldn’t help spread this conspiracy theory, because it sure is a doozy.
Thanks for continuing to keep us in the loop Andrew. Really enjoyed your last pod as well as the one you were part of with Wilner and the others.
Curious about what you think about the ZiPS projections for the Jays - especially as it pertains to Teoscar and Ryu?
Also, I’m a happy subscriber, but can't recall when I signed up last year. Are subscriptions on a annual basis (as in every Jan uary 1st) or will I get a notice when I am approaching my 12 months, so that I can renew.
Keep up the great work. I always look forward to reading and hearing Batflip. Hope there is a settlement to talk about before the season is supposed to start!
Cheers — Cheryl
Thanks so much for the kind words and the question, Cheryl. I had fun on Wilner’s podcast too, so I’m glad people enjoyed it. And it turns out my old friend Drew Fairservice also has a podcast. Who knew?
Regarding ZiPS, I mentioned Teoscar above, but I definitely think Ryu’s one was probably the next most interesting — less so because it was surprisingly high (3.1 fWAR) and more because it serves as a reminder of how good he was in not only 2019 and 2020, but for the vast majority of 2021, too.
I imagine every Blue Jays fan felt like Ryu’s season last year was ultimately a disappointment, and his career-worst 4.37 ERA attests to that, but it’s easy to forget that he had a 3.22 ERA and a 3.63 FIP when he first stepped onto the mound against the Red Sox at Rogers Centre on August 8th. His season had some ups and downs, to be sure, but it was really only at that point that the wheels fell off. At that late stage in the season, Ryu’s ERA ranked 11th among AL starters with at least 80 innings pitched, ahead of José Berríos, Sean Manaea, Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Lucas Giolito, Nathan Eovaldi, and plenty of others. His four-plus months of success is reflected in his projection, as are his previous two Cy-Young-runner-up campaigns. He’s really good! I’m terrified that it might just all go away and become A Problem very soon, but he’s really good!
As for the subscription stuff, first of all, thank you so much for being a paid subscriber. This is all I do for a living, and while I completely understand that not everybody can contribute and appreciate every reader regardless, it really is the generosity of those who support financially that make it viable. I’ll never be able to say thank you enough.
Payment wise, it’s an automatic renewal thing, so you won’t have to worry about that, but you will nevertheless get a reminder email about it when your new 12 month cycle is approaching.
I, too, really hope there is a whole lot more to discuss in the near future. We’re on the cusp of what should be the most fun Jays season since at least 2016, so the league better not screw this up! At least they and the union are talking again at least, I guess.
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