Mail bag: The future looks bright!
On Orelvis, Moreno, José Ramírez, extending Teoscar (or Chapman), Espinal/Biggio, rosterbation, the catching conundrum, Brad Hand, and more!
A new season of Toronto Blue Jays baseball right around the corner, and the excitement of having a playoff favourite coming home to finally play in front of a capacity crowd at Rogers Centre is palpable. The future is bright, and it starts at the end of next week! And with that as the backdrop, and a backlog of questions because it took me forever to actually compose my answers to all of your excellent questions, it’s finally time for a dip into the ol’ mail bag!
But first, I’d like to say that, as usual, I couldn’t get in everyone’s questions in before running into Substack’s post length limit, so thank you so much to everybody who submitted one, and my apologies for not being able to get to them all (and to those who had great questions that just happened to get a bit stale while I took my sweet time with this!). And thank you once again to all of those who subscribe.
⚾ Speaking of which, before we get going, please indulge me while I attempt to make a living. Because if you’ve been sent here by a friend, or you are an existing subscriber who would like to move to a paid membership so you can comment, ask questions the next time I open up the ol’ mail bag, or just plain old support what I do, click below to upgrade or become a subscriber — paid or otherwise. I will be eternally grateful if you do! ⚾
As always, I have not read any of Griff’s answers…
Hi Andrew, Big fan of your work last year. Where do you stand on possibly including Orelvis Martinez or Gabriel Moreno in a deal for Jose Ramirez? I don’t know if it is necessary given the Chapman deal felt light, but would you include one to keep a specific player penciled in for the roster currently? I read an interesting article on FanGraphs by Kevin Goldstein that makes me think even highly rated prospects should be reasonably parted with because the probability of them panning out is still full of risk we often ignore, but still don’t know how I feel because they seem to be pretty close to the majors with top tier upside. — noah v.
This is obviously a question that was asked a couple weeks ago, when I first posted the call for mail bag Q’s, but I think it’s still worth looking at for a few reasons. First, it’s a good question! Second, though the likelihood that the Jays could still nab Ramírez in trade has faded significantly since then, I think, the recent breakdown in extension talks between him and the Guardians could potentially open that window again.
*COUGH*
Also, as we’re seeing with the rumoured Padres-Mets talks, because this has been such a compressed spring training, there is apparently still time for some pretty significant moves to materialize.
As for the question, honestly, Goldstein is right on this one — at least in the abstract.
I’m not at all trying to rush Moreno or Martinez out the door, but we’re talking about one guy with 35 games combined at Double- and Triple-A, and another with just 27 at High-A. The jump from there to big league star is still pretty enormous, even for guys there is a ton to like about and that the organization obviously values.
If we’re really going to start digging into these two specific players, Moreno probably ought to be thought about a little differently here. He’s much more firmly a top ten overall guy, and the public sites have done better and better over the years at putting the right guys at the top of their top 100 lists. The outcomes for guys who have yet to reach that level, like Martinez, are much more varied — though the somewhat surprising news on Saturday that he’ll be assigned to Double-A to start the year, which marks the second time the Jays have been very aggressive with him (the other being sending him to the alternate site in Rochester in 2020 despite Martinez being just 18 years old), probably indicates that the club is quite a bit higher on him right now than the public sites are.
Still, we can get a sense of what the future may hold by taking a look at the estimated future FV outcome graphs noted in Goldstein’s piece, which FanGraphs this year has included for all prospects in their top 100 — and I think that’s worth considering.
Moreno, who ranked number 10, has a distribution of outcomes that is quite impressive, if not necessarily as high as what a lot a lot of fans are dreaming on. (For context, the 80-20 scale FanGraphs uses for these puts 60 FV at 3.4 to 4.9 fWAR per year, so they’re basically giving him a one in four chance of being a 3.4 win player or better, and nearly a one in 10 chance of being a 5+ win player.)
The range of outcomes for Martinez, ranked number 32, are even wider, and the possibility that he busts is significantly higher, though his ceiling is nearly as high as Moreno’s.
Now, this stuff isn’t the be all, end all, but I think it gives the whole prospect hugging thing some important perspective. Like I say, these sites do better all the time, but still, MLB Pipeline’s top 10 from back in 2017 read like this: Andrew Benintendi, Yoán Moncada, Gleyber Torres, Dansby Swanson, Amed Rosario, Alex Reyes, J.P. Crawford, Victor Robles, Tyler Glasnow, and Austin Meadows. It’s an inexact science! Especially when guys are as green as these two Jays prospects are.
That said, we know the Jays are very high on both Moreno and Martinez. I wouldn’t even rule out the possibility that they’re as high on the pair fans are. The great trick that Alex Anthopoulos pulled in 2015 was that he managed to move a ton of prospects for elite big league talent while still managing to keep guys like Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and the disgraced former closer. It’s certainly possible that Moreno and Martinez have been similarly identified by the organization as true keepers in the way that other top prospects, like Gunnar Hoglund and Austin Martin, were not. If so, that certainly wouldn’t bother me!
Also, like you say, it may not even be necessary to give up as much as this for Ramírez. I was also surprised that it was a package headlined by Hoglund (even though he was incredibly well regarded as a draft prospect before it turned out he required Tommy John surgery) that netted the Jays Matt Chapman.
Still, in general I’m a pretty big “prospect are for poor people” guy. Especially when a team is as clearly in the strong position that the Jays are in right now. I’d move just about anyone not on the major league roster right now for a guy like Ramírez and not feel terribly upset by it. I’d obviously rather they keep the best ones, but the Jays have a strong stable of talent, with more to be added this summer at the draft (including a pair of picks following Competitive Balance Round B that they’ll receive for losing Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien to free agency). They could take the hit.
Hi Andrew. Long time reader, first time writer. I am so happy with the roster and depth right now I'm not understanding the craving for more, more, more. Plugging up the DH with Freeman? Selling the future for JRam? I don't get it. We were promised a perennial contender and it feels like that's in place. I'm happy if there are no more moves this off season. Are you? — Thomas W.
Hey, thanks so much for the question man! The one obviously came in before the Grichuk-Tapia trade happened, which maybe changes my answer a little, but to answer it bluntly, no I’m not happy if there are no more moves. I won’t be devastated if there aren’t any, because I think the talent is there to compete this year as is, and it’s certainly not looking likely that there will be more moves at this point anyway. But I’d rather the team be as fun and as good as possible, and either of the moves you mention would have given the Jays an absolutely ridiculous lineup — and the elite hitter from the left side that they sorely lack, which they’re just going to end up shopping for at the trade deadline in July anyway.
I mean, we’ve got people in the know looking at this as the potential Opening Day lineup…
… and you’re saying it’s greedy to want them to do better?? Than Greg Bird at DH??? Than a bench of Tapia, Santiago Espinal, Alejandro Kirk, and Reese McGuire?
Obviously the future has to be part of the equation here — I’m not saying empty the farm system — but this is a team built to win right now. Coming up short in 2022 and 2023 would be a much worse outcome than having to find another way to replace Chapman in 2024.
If Orelvis Martinez continues to develop at 3rd, do the Jays just use Chapman for the remaining two years on his contract and then let him walk? With the extensions of Vlady and Bo coming up I can see Rogers looking to save payroll.
I know at this point it's rolling the dice on how his development goes, but we know they are looking at fielding a winner well beyond this year. — Winger7
I would guess that, even if the Jays do end up moving Martinez in a blockbuster at some point, Chapman is probably only here for the two years — mostly for the reasons you cite regarding Bo and Vladdy getting expensive, but also because Chapman isn’t the only player whose contract will be expiring by then.
The current Jays scheduled to hit free agency following the 2023 season are Chapman, Tapia, Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Hyun Jin Ryu, and Adam Cimber. That’s a lot of talent to have to replace (or extend), and based on the current makeup of the farm system, it feels like they’ll have an easier time doing so internally on the infield than in the outfield. Plus, by then George Springer will surely have to move into right field, and at the moment there very much does not appear to be a future centre fielder in the pipeline. They’ll have to look outside the organization for that piece. They will definitely be looking for more pitching, and ideally will find a way to make the money work to extend Teoscar, too.
However the priorities break down, I think re-signing Chapman for multiple years, while not completely out of the question (though his performance at the plate over the next two years will have some say in the matter!), will be lower down the list.
There's been some talk about when the Jays will extend Vlad Jr or Bo or both and I think we'd all like to see it sooner rather than later. But here's a crazy thought — what if the Jays are happy to have them for as long as they can without extending because they are confident that they can be replaced by others either internally (another crop of stars) or externally? It would potentially be a PR nightmare, but there's parallels with what AA did in Atlanta with Freeman/Olson. What do you think? — OzRob
I think you used the right word there: crazy.
That may end up being what has to happen because one or both of Bo and Vlad may simply be determined to test free agency, but that would be a terrible thing to actually plan out. First of all, the front office in its entirety should be rounded up and summarily fired if they think you can simply replace a player of Vlad’s calibre internally — or, frankly, externally.
Secondly, while Anthopoulos did a nice little bit of business specifically in landing Olson after letting Freeman walk for nothing, on the whole those moves weren’t actually very good. The Olson move made up for the mistake of not re-signing Freeman or trading him when they knew they couldn’t. They could have kept Freeman and used the prospects that went for Olson for other upgrades. They could have moved Freeman a year ago and sorted out first base then rather than getting nothing in return. The World Series win obviously makes all that a whole hell of a lot easier to swallow — sort of a Jeff Kent-for-David Cone kind of thing — but that’s absolutely not a model to follow!
Hey Andrew, I hope you are well. The Jays look they will have an exciting team this year, my question is about the future. I assume the team has a budget — which players do you think the Jays will be hanging onto long term, if they can? I’m looking at Teo, Lourdes, Chapman, and wondering how do they all stay with Vladdy and Bo? — Ron
I sort of got to this one above, but I’d say that the simple answer is they don’t. The team definitely has a budget. It’s been growing — outpacing revenue, in fact, thanks to the pandemic — but Mark Shapiro has been pretty clear that there’s a ceiling. For example, when asked last fall about potentially going over the competitive balance tax threshold in the future, he said this:
“That's not something I've thought a lot about. I'm not sure, with how we're currently constructed, we've got the revenues to support a team that goes over the CBT. That's not to say that ownership doesn't make the strategic decision at some point to go over.”
They’ll be able to do a whole lot with where their budget is going to go, but some tough choices are going to have to be made, sort of like they already were this winter with letting Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray go. I’d be very surprised if they kept more than one of Teoscar/Lourdes/Chapman beyond 2023, unless they’re sure by then that Bo and Vlad aren’t going to extend — and, as I said above, with George Springer destined to move to a corner, it’s still probably one of Teoscar/Lourdes at most.
Teoscar would be my guess among the three, but he’ll be 31 in 2024, and I think the Jays will probably be a bit cautious in terms of what they’ll offer him. I’m looking at it now, and he’ll make just over $10 million this season, which should go up to $15 million next year. I could fairly easily see them offering an $85 million extension that starts this year, going 10/15/20/20/20. But does he take that? He’s basically got $20 million for the next two years in the bank already — the $10 million from this year, plus at the absolute worst he’ll make at least as much next year, unless he’s somehow released — so that’s $65 million for three free agent years and some real financial security.
That would at least give him something to think about. It’s no guarantee he’d land three years and $65 million after 2023. But given the way he’s hit since mid-2019, there’s a very real chance he could be worth a whole lot more. Another year might seal the deal, but that’s possibly too much for the Jays, who may not even want to lock him in at $20 million at all. If they did, considering expected arb raises/extensions for Bo and Vlad, that would mean having something like $110 million committed to just six players in 2025 and 2026 (Bo, Vlad, Teoscar, Springer, Gausman, Berríos).
That’s doable, especially if these next few years are as successful — and lucrative — as the club hopes. But I’d imagine they’re more comfortable with not locking in any more dollars that far down the road. Maybe they play out this season and then offer something like five years and $95 million to Teoscar, depending on his performance. Or, depending on his performance, maybe they make that same offer to Chapman instead. Could work!
Ideally they get Vlad and Bo sorted out first, just so they have some “cost certainty” before going down any of these paths. But with in-season extensions unlikely, and there being less than a week until the regular season starts, it feels like they may not have that luxury next fall. Will be interesting stuff to follow once all the confetti from the World Series parade is cleaned up.
Does finding a left handed bat for a pure DH role make sense? I like Cavan Biggio as much as anybody but I do not think his left handed threat is enough to make us prefer him over Santiago Espinal at second base. — Laura C.
Here’s another question that’s from a couple weeks ago, as we now are seeing Greg Bird taking hold of that role. As I’ve said above, I do think they can do better than that, but obviously, Laura, you were on to something. Bird will definitely see some time at DH, though I’m sure that with Alejandro Kirk around, plus Ramel Tapia now available to give Springer, Hernández, or Gurriel some DH work, Bird will be more of a bench bat than a regular DH. (For however long he even lasts here.)
As for Biggio and Espinal, I do think that the fact that Biggio hits from the left side is going to be a big factor in his getting playing time over Espinal. Provided he’s able to produce, that is.
Obviously it was a rough year for Biggio in 2021, and Espinal really showed that he may be more valuable than many realized. Like everyone else, I want to believe he can be even more valuable if the muscle he put on over the winter helps draw a little more power out of his bat, but projection systems like ZiPS and Steamer all pretty conclusively see Biggio as the better player.
Those projections are obviously not infallible, but combine that with how well Biggio has hit so far this spring — 6-for-19 with five walks and a home run (.316/.423/.474) — and I think we’re going to see a lot of him. Fortunately, the versatility of both players is such that, if they’re both hitting well, there will definitely be ways to get them both into the lineup.
Now that would be a nice problem to have!
I still have faith in Cavan Biggio. Has anyone else noticed that he has spanked a few high fastballs for hits in Spring Training? Yeah, once again the Spring Training caveat but... — Fazmasherley
Speaking of Biggio, I think you make a good point here. I can’t speak to too many of Biggio’s hits, and he does only have one that went for extra bases, but it was indeed a high fastball from the Yankees’ Michael King that he parked beyond the wall at Steinbrenner Field last weekend.
Sure, the pitch was only 92, and the ball only barely cleared the short porch in right (Steinbrenner Field has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium), but who’s counting?
That hit also made me think the phrase “Future Yankee Cavan Biggio.” So there’s also that.
Anyway, more of that in 2022 please, Cavan!
What does the 28 man roster in April mean for the Jays? McGuire? Palacios? Phelps? Pearson? Merryweather? — Sweaty Runner
We’ve obviously got a bit of clarity on this one since this question was asked, but I think it’s worth going over regardless. Mostly that’s because it now seems as though Nate Pearson may not quite be ready to make the trip north with the club, and that Ryan Borucki could be in the same boat. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported on Saturday afternoon that it’s “becoming less likely” that Pearson will break camp with the team because of the “non-covid illness that’s keeping him out of games.” He added that “Borucki (hamstring) will get an MRI” after slipping on the mound in Friday’s game.
Now, Borucki was going to have a tough time making the team anyway, I think. The only thing that was really keeping him in the mix was the fact that he’s out of options. Which isn’t to say that he’s pitched poorly, but Tayler Saucedo has been excellent all spring and may have simply earned the spot on merit.
As for Pearson, I’m not sure who that opens the door for. Because teams are allowed to carry 28 players in April, I think most figure on the Jays coming north with 10 relievers. We know Romano, Mayza, Garcia, Cimber, Richards, Phelps, and Stripling will be seven of them. I think Julian Merryweather gets a spot, and then the final two are down to Saucedo, Borucki (if healthy), Trent Thornton, Anthony Castro, or Andrew Vasquez. Thornton hasn’t allowed a hit this spring, while striking out four and walking just one over 3 2/3 innings, and while that isn’t a huge sample, at this point I’d guess he and Saucedo get those spots. (Unless Borucki doesn’t need an IL stint.)
On the position player side they’re pretty much set, unless Nathan Lukes makes a late run to steal a spot from Greg Bird. That seems unlikely so I think it will be the three catchers (Jansen, Kirk, McGuire), four outfielders (Springer, Hernández, Gurriel, Tapia), and six infielders (Guerrero, Bichette, Chapman, Biggio, Espinal, Bird).
No one likes to go on the IL but do you think a brief IL stint followed by rehab time in the minors would give Ryan Borucki the best chance to stick with the Blue Jays by giving him time to recover and to show what he has? Because right now it looks like he might make it out of spring with the club but will not get a load of appearances before the rosters contract to 26 again, when he becomes a DFA candidate. — Minor Leaguer
It’s an interesting thought, and one I’ve had myself, but the other side of that coin is that going on the IL for the start of the season would allow Saucedo to entrench himself further in that second lefty spot. That would probably be bad for Borucki too! Though, like you say, he’s likely going to have trouble sticking around through the crunch at the end of April anyway.
I don’t think the Jays are going to be too cavalier about letting him go, because he’s got a good arm if he can just put it all together, and he’s been here a long time. Plus, Saucedo can be optioned, and it’s not like they won’t have a need back there sooner or later anyway. Still, my best guess is that it’s not looking so hot for Borucki right now.
Which will be the bigger parade, Jays World Series or CanMNT World Cup?
Living in interesting times ain’t all bad. — Will
Can you imagine? I’ll take just one of those and be plenty happy.
Anyway, it’s not a contest but… maybe the Jays? Though perhaps I only say that because I can’t conceive of how completely wild this country would become if the men’s national team really had a deep World Cup run in them. There are worse teams than them that made it to the knockout stages of the last one — and do in pretty much every World Cup. It could happen! I mean, probably not a win, but it’s going to be so so so fun.
Does it really matter if the Jays are all right handed? These people have been earning their keep off mostly righties since they were kids. — Jeff G.
I mean, by their own admission they need better balance in their lineup. Here’s what Ross Atkins said in his end-of-season media availability, for example:
I think the obvious one is that we were a little bit right-handed. You saw, even just when Dickerson was having good at-bats, and when Cavan Biggio came into the lineup — it's not just that they're left-handed, but how we are attacked, and potentially the pitchers that are used is different. And then secondarily, I think, we feel it's important to have balance and not just the same type of hitters throughout, up and down your lineup. So, some players that are more batting average driven, and some players that are more on-base driven with plate discipline. I think having both is exceptionally powerful. And having a combination of all those things is ultimately, I think, what we're striving to do.
Sure, he said it’s not necessarily just a lefty-righty thing, but a real easy way to give pitchers different looks is by not having so many long runs of guys who hit from the same side. Granted, the Jays right-handed hitters are so good that they’re going to be tough outs no matter what. And it’s not like Greg Bird is going to be hitting third in order to break up right-handers like Vlad, Bo, Springer, and Teoscar. Even with the platoon advantage, you’re better off not giving Bird those at-bats. Plus, as the most right-handed hitting team in baseball by far last season, the Jays had the game’s second best wRC+ as a group. You can definitely still produce a ton of runs that way.
But yeah, it does sort of matter.
If the shift is banned next year, does that help left handed hitters more? Seems to be more extreme pull hitters from the left side. The right-handedness of the Jays this year might be OK, but next year lefty hitters in the lineup would be more important? — Jay M
Definitely. It’s not that there are more extreme pull hitters on the left side though, it’s that the first baseman, for obvious reasons, can’t shift as far away from his bag as the third baseman can. So you always see the crazy shifts against the left-handed pull hitters, whereas you couldn’t do it the same for the right-handed ones.
I’m not sure this will put more of an impetus on adding lefties for the Jays, as the right-handed guys who are already great will still be great. It might give Cavan Biggio a bump, though. And I’d definitely recommend drafting Bryce Harper in fantasy if you can get him.
Is the "raise a glass for the sandcastle kid" song commercially available anywhere? — Matthew E
Yeah, that’s by some pals of mine from NYC called Your 33 Black Angels. You can find it on their Bandcamp page. Specifically, it’s called “Dead Like Me” and is track two on their Songs from the Near Bleak Future record.
Given we could benefit from a good left-handed hitter, can you see a “like for like” trade sometime this year? For example, trading Teoscar for a left handed hitter of similar calibre? Straight up, or close to. Simple like. — OzRob
I somehow doubt that Randal Grichuk for Ramel Tapia was the deal you were thinking of when you submitted this question, Rob. But that one hadn’t happened yet when you did, so credit where it’s due. You nailed it!
Better late than never! The Blue Jays are fourth (!!) in FanGraph's Positional Power Rankings at catcher. That is higher than I would have guessed. Danny Jansen's small sample 105 wRC+ last year feels overlooked to me. Almost certainly because of the terrible cold streak? For all the talk of a trade for José Ramírez, I can't help but feel cost-controlled already-fourth-in-the-league catching isn't something to give up, or at least I think the gain would be closer to marginal. I'd be much more willing to deal Orelvis or even Moreno. Am I off base?
FanGraphs calls Moreno "The most athletic catcher to come along since J.T. Realmuto.” The Blue Jays are projected for Realmuto type-production out of the catching position the year! The value the Dodgers get from Will Smith and Austin Barnes is incredible… and the Blue Jays are one projection-beating season away from that? — Old Dollo
I did see that, and to me that speaks more to the weakness of the position than it does to the Jays having an incredible situation with the group that they’ve already got. Which isn’t to say that I don’t like the chances of Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk having very nice seasons, but I’m not sure this is as great a setup as the ranking makes it look.
The idea is to get Realmuto-like production out of one roster spot. That’s why Moreno, if he hits his most favourable outcome, is going to be a star. I don’t think you balk at sending Alejandro Kirk out in a trade — which, let’s face it, is going to have to happen sooner or later anyway — because he and Jansen project to be a nice tandem in a vacuum like this. (We can discard McGuire here, which I wish the Jays would do! Without him they’d drop into a tie for fifth in these rankings with the Rays.)
In reality, it’s actually a little bit of an awkward situation the Jays have here. The lefty hitter in the group, McGuire, is the guy you want to see on the field the least. Choosing when to use Jansen and when to use Kirk will depend on who is throwing for the Jays and how each of those guys matches up with the opposing pitcher. That’s fine, but Kirk is the clear number two because he’s not as defensively sound, and I’m not sure he’s going to ever be more than that behind Jansen. Until he’s moved, he’s going to be stuck trying to cobble together something approximating a season’s worth of plate appearances through days behind the plate and at DH. It’s not really ideal for his defensive development, and with the other DH options the Jays have it makes it tough to get his bat into the lineup. On a lot of days he’s going to end up on the bench — and for the full game too, as he won’t be a defensive replacement for Jansen, nor will there be a ton of pinch hit chances on this team for a right-handed hitter.
It’s not a horrible problem to have, but as nice as the projection is, Kirk would be better off in a situation where he’s the bat-first number one, getting enough reps behind the plate to really push his defensive game forward. And the Jays will be better off when it’s Moreno and Jansen, who will likely start out splitting time, before Moreno eventually grabs the top job.
I’ve been thinking of free agents recently and what it takes to sign with a team. I’ve heard Atkins and Shapiro talk about selling potential players in baseball culture in Toronto, top tier facility in Dunedin, training staff, etc. But do any of those perks matter to a player who is going to sign with a team? Doesn’t the team who offers the most money win out 99% of the time? Does telling a player that “we will ensure that you don’t have to look for a place to live while playing in Toronto because we have staff that will do that for you” even matter?* (I made up that perk). Interested in your thoughts. — Steve D.
I wouldn’t say that money wins out 99% of the time, but you’re right that money very often is the major factor in free agent decisions. However, I think what we often see is that teams these days all value players very similarly — something Ross Atkins himself has spoken about. That puts those other factors very much in play.
Let’s take Hyun Jin Ryu as an example. I don’t remember if this has been specifically reported, but I think it’s safe to assume that he had a bunch of suitors that were willing to offer him a three-year contract when he was a free agent heading into the 2020 season. The way I’ve always thought about it is that, because they so valued him as a foundational part of their rotation, and needed to put themselves on the map as a free agent destination, the Jays ultimately decided that they would give him a fourth year. If that’s really how it went down, the extra year essentially broke the tie.
So what happens when nobody so clearly breaks the tie? Maybe it comes down to tax rates, geography, familiarity with staff or teammates, the likelihood of being on a winner, etc. But yeah, I think “perks,” facilities, and all that other stuff definitely matters.
And I’m very sure that all that stuff — particularly the way that the Jays treat players’ families — was a factor in José Berríos choosing to re-sign here after just a couple months in Toronto.
Seemed like a great move at the time to get Brad Hand at the deadline last year. A lefty with closer stuff. He had nothing and you could argue was the cause of the Jays missing the playoffs. Then the Phillies gave him 6 mil. I don't understand. — Jay M
I mean, great job by his agent! And I certainly don’t begrudge Hand getting paid. But you’re right, that does seem higher than one would expect. Or at least, higher than someone who only saw him pitch for the Jays would expect.
Thing is, Hand went to the Mets after the Jays let him go and was absolutely fine. Maybe even better than that! We just happened to catch him in the trough of all troughs.
In just 8 2/3 innings with the Jays, Hand allowed 10 runs (7 earned) on 13 hits (three homers) and three walks, with just five strikeouts.
In 13 1/3 innings for the Mets,Hand allowed seven runs (four earned) on 12 hits (one homer) and five walks, with — and this is important — 14 strikeouts.
Hand struck out just 12.2% of the batters he faced with the Jays, but then bounced right back, striking out 25.5% of those who he faced while with the Mets. His strand rate also jumped from an abysmal 50.8% for Toronto back to an almost reasonable 66.3% in New York. And his HR/FB rate went from 17.6% (i.e. 17.6% of the fly balls he surrendered as a Blue Jay went over the fence) to 8.3%.
He still wasn't quite the Hand of old, but he was at least useful. I sure as hell wouldn’t want to see the Jays try it again for a second time, but given his track record before 2022, I think that’s a guy worth making a bet on.
Are the Jays using the 28 man roster to kick the waiving Reese McGuire can down the road or are the Jays gonna roll 2 bench catchers for a significant portion of the year do you think? — Ben C.
Man, I hope that’s not what they plan to do. But they obviously like McGuire quite a bit. We talked about this a bit on this week’s podcast, and Nick made the excellent point that there’s really no situation where you’d rather McGuire hit instead of Jansen — or, frankly, anybody — so, even though he hits from the left side, he’s really not a bench bat. He also, at this point, doesn’t really offer all that much more defensively than Jansen, either. Plus, his presence prevents Kirk from getting games in behind the plate. So why is he here?
I’m honestly not sure. But I wouldn’t be wholly surprised if he’s still here on May 1, either. (Though it should be noted that they chose Kirk over McGuire a year ago, designating him for assignment and sneaking him through waivers. It was only because of injuries that he made it back onto the 40-man, so maybe I’m not giving them quite enough credit here.)
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Now we need the emergency Mailbag post where you rewrite all the answers that mentioned Bird and/or McGuire. 😁
(Great work on this, Andrew...)