Mail bag: The Vibes They Are a-Changin'
On the business of Bo, Rogers Centre renos, Ryu's future, Belt, Pearson, Kikuchi, finalizing the roster, Moreno, Varsho, Kiermaier, Chapman, Montoyo, vibes, and much, much more!
Happy belated mail bag day! Man alive, I’ve been pecking away at this one so long that it was back before the Brandon Belt signing that I put out my call for questions here. That actually makes some of this crop, as you’ll see below, fascinating little time capsules that underline just how significantly that deal has probably changed the outlook for the 2023 Blue Jays — a fact that’s a bit surprising, and definitely at least mildly concerning, considering the question marks surrounding his surgically repaired knee.
Don’t get me wrong, none of this means that you’re about to read a stale document. I mean, it’s January. It’s not like a whole lot has gone on in the days since questions started pouring in. And it’s also not like there are laws that must be followed when producing a mail bag. Nowhere is it said that I couldn’t, say, ask myself a question, just for the sake of making sure the Bo Bichette arbitration story is covered in here. *COUGH*
Of course, more than being about getting every news story of the week covered, the mail bag is about whatever is on readers’ minds. And that will comprise the vast majority of this one. As always, I got a ton of great and thoughtful questions, and tried my best to answer them all. Thank you so much to everybody that submitted and, most importantly, thank you to everyone who subscribes.
It’s mail bag time!
As always, I haven’t read any of Griff’s answers…
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What should I be concerned about more, the length of time it’s taking you to get this mail bag out, or the fact that Bo Bichette and the Blue Jays have once again failed to agree on his salary? — A.S.
Ho ho ho. Self deprecation will get you everywhere, my friend. As for the Bo question, hoo boy, there have been some hot takes out there about this one, haven’t there?
Of course, hot takes seem to follow Bo around a lot more than they do most other current Blue Jays players.
That's going to be hard to avoid when you're a poor defender at the most important position on the diamond — a guy who is so talented offensively and important to the franchise that it seems preserving your happiness by playing you at your favoured position, which some might see as ego, trumps what's best for the team. And it's going to be especially difficult when, at the same time, you tend to be streaky at the plate, and the perception is that you often make it too easy for opposing pitchers to get you out.
Now, some of that criticism is fair and some of it isn't. The body language experts need to sit the hell down, first and foremost. Many fans will also get hung up on an antiquated thing like errors, though a more sophisticated metric, DRS, had never shown Bo to post a negative value before 2022, while his OAA has been bad but comes up shy of horrific. Last year his DRS was an abysmal -16, the worst mark by 10 runs among the 22 shortstops to qualify for the batting title, but one year of data is a bit of a small sample here — even for someone who also doesn't pass the eye test.
Offensively his numbers continue to sparkle, even if in 2022 it took a late-season surge to get there. He hasn't posted a strikeout rate below league average since his rookie year and, as for all the “Bo-and-2” talk back during the summer, though he ranks very high on the list of players to find himself in 0-2 counts since the start of 2020, there are some excellent hitters on there ahead of him — Trea Turner, José Abreu, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson — as well as slightly behind (Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Olson).
The profile works, in other words. And he takes more heat than he should. I mean, this a top 20 position player in all of baseball by fWAR since the start of 2021. Vlad, Devers, Bryce Harper, Bryan Reynolds, Brandon Nimmo — they’re all behind him. (Though it’s worth noting that without the positional adjustment WAR gives him for playing shortstop, he’d likely not be ranked nearly as high.)
The heat he takes is all the more undue if, like me, you see the reluctance to move him off of short as more the team's failing than his.
What’s most interesting to me about that, though, is that this is something the Jays may actually recognize and want to correct. They went out and signed Marcus Semien heading into the 2021 season, though ultimately opted to keep Bo at short. There have been rumours since then about their having interest in other big ticket shortstops, too. And this week Bogaerts’ agent, Scott Boras, told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that the Jays were on a short list of teams heavily pursuing the former Red Sox shortstop before he ultimately landed in San Diego for $280 million over 11 years.
“It was just really clear to us there was a separation where Boston was going to go for Bogaerts, compared to where the market was. They probably made a decision they were going to sign Devers, and were going to pay only one of them,” Boras explained. “So we knew at the forefront that Bogey would be somewhere besides Boston. Minnesota, the Cubs, the Blue Jays, they were really after him. But we kind of knew the Padres’ guy was Bogaerts (after Trea Turner rejected their offer). They wanted that personality, that leadership in that locker room.”
Now, I don't want to take that statement as concrete evidence, because it’s very much in the interest of Boras and his clients to let other teams believe that the Blue Jays are out there lurking on any big-time free agent he has on offer. But that, to me, says a whole lot more to the effect of “maybe the Jays and Bichette are not going to be a long-term thing” than any of the silly readings of tea leaves over his arbitration case that I’ve encountered this week.
But it’s mid-January, and there’s a built-in audience for Bo drama, so here we are. He didn’t settle because he doesn’t really want to be here! The Jays are risking offending him by not giving him what he wants! Marcus Stroman went through this and we saw what happened!
None of this, in my view, is really worth a second thought. The only worthwhile piece I’ve found on the topic so far was Shi Davidi’s for Sportsnet, where he elided the mind reading and demonstrated why Bo might believe he deserves to be compensated like the highest earning first-year-arb shortstops of recent seasons, and why the Jays want to keep his Arb1 salary as low as possible so as to mitigate the way those numbers escalate in years two and three.
It’s really that simple.
Evoking Stroman, to me, is particularly absurd. He was public about being upset by the things that were brought up during his arbitration hearing, then less than a year later he was getting Toronto’s skyline tattooed on his chest, and clearly irked by the fact that the Jays didn’t offer him an extension — a decision that might have had something to do with things like his public venting about his arb hearing!
Stroman wanted to stay, as his infamous post-trade outburst made even more plain. Clearly the sting of the arbitration hearing — which in his case was over far less money than the $2.5 million at the heart of the Jays’ dispute with Bichette — did little to diminish that desire. Aspects of the business side of the game such as this can affect players, but stacking that weird assumption on top of all the other weird assumptions people tend to make about Bo doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Especially because, if he’s making clear that his intention is to get as much money out of the Jays and his career as possible, it means there’s a pretty easy way for the team to keep him around for a very long time if they so choose.
None of this means that there couldn’t be some acrimony or hurt feelings behind the scenes about this kind of stuff — again, the supposed pursuit of a guy like Bogaerts and its potential effect on the relationship intrigues me — but it could also mean that he’s particularly determined to keep setting high precedents for the sake of future union members. Or maybe it’s that he’s just a guy who is confident to a fault — a tendency I think we’ve all seen in his play from time to time. We won’t know until we know.
What part of the upcoming Rogers Centre renovation has you the most excited? Love that they're finally really fixing up the experience more than just where you eat and drink and buy things. — Graham
This is an incredibly pertinent question, given this week’s media tour of the ongoing construction at Rogers Centre, and all the new looks we’ve seen of the way things are coming along. Off the top, I’ll say that I’m far and away most looking forward to one of the changes that’s still another year away: getting all of the seats to actually face the mound. The infield seats down the foul lines put you in great proximity to the action but really force you to crane your body so that you’re not staring at the old 55 yard line. It may be a bit on the more subtle side — all those fancy extra flight decks are probably going to be more talked-about — but reorienting those seats will make a huge difference in the way a huge number of fans experience the game.
As for this year’s changes, I’m not sure if “excited” is the word I’d use, but I’m definitely very curious about how the new outfield walls are going to play.
Maybe the perspective in the image above is playing tricks on the eye, but that fence line looks just like the one the original renderings, and not like one I’ve ever seen in a big league park before. Caroms off that wall are going to be tricky for outfielders, I think. Smart of the Blue Jays to have brought in some left-handed hitters who might actually be able to pull the ball to that spot!
You can also see the new visitors’ bullpen in the image above, and just how close to it some fans will be able to get. Ultimately it will be mostly surrounded by a patio area, not seats, but I still think that had this setup had been in place for certain games in 2015-16 it might have caused a riot. So… excited? Kinda! But at the very least curious.
Hi Andrew!
I am sure this is going to open me up to ridicule, and the events of the past couple of weeks have made this a bit of a null issue, but I am wondering why there has never been any apparent intention from the Jays organization to convert Vlad to a corner outfielder. Hear me out! His sprint speed metrics don't look great, but he has shown bursts to hint that there is more there, and his best defensive tool by a mile would seem to be his arm.
Not saying he'd be great, but maybe good enough? Getting him off of 1B would certainly open up many more options for finding some left handed power. As long as Vlad is at first I think this lineup will struggle to find balance with actual power threats.
He's shown an improved commitment to fitness so far and he's still young, I don't think personally that sending him out to run around in the grass a bit would be the worst thing.
Feel free to tell me why I'm an idiot, but to me this smells like an idea that has been dismissed prematurely.
Thanks! — Jesse T.
Hey Jesse, thanks so much for the question, and for your support of the site! I definitely don’t think you’re an idiot for wondering about this, though I do think the reasons not move Vlad to the outfield to are much, much more compelling that the reasons to do it. And I’d have said as much before the Jays added Brandon Belt — in fact, if I had been a little more timely with getting this dang mail bag posted, you’d have seen me say it.
Putting Belt’s arrival aside, though, I’d say that, sure, versatility is an asset in the abstract, and it's a fact of roster construction that you can't have two classic power-hitting 1B types who absolutely have to be in the lineup every day while still keeping your DH spot open to rotate guys through (which is why Belt will almost never face lefties). But is the defensive hit you'd take by trying to put a round peg like Vlad into a square hole like right field worth it?
Again, in the abstract, it can possibly be. Juan Soto was the worst right fielder in the game in 2022 by Outs Above Average (-16) while checking in with the exact same sprint speed (26.6 ft/s) as Vlad. Yet the Nationals, and the Padres after that, kept running him out there, and it looks like they'll be doing it again this year. Part of the reasoning for that is that Soto graded out much better in right field in 2021, that one year of defensive data isn’t a great sample, and that OAA isn't the be-all, end-all. Part of it is likely also that it's what Soto wants, and it's important to keep players like that happy. Plus, teams can certainly be successful sacrificing defence for offence like that, as we all saw during the Phillies' run to the World Series.
But do we want that for Vlad? Do we want him trying to run down balls in the gap? Diving? Crashing into walls? Going all out more often? Do we think more wear and tear on a guy of his size is worth the trade-off for whatever tenuous benefit moving him away from a defensive position he's really thrived at would be?
I can confidently say that I don't. And I suppose we now know that the Jays don’t either. As I suggested above, Belt comes with questions, but they’ve added left-handed power in that deal, and their defence and Vlad’s health are much better for it.
With the news that Ryu is slated to come back sometime in July, while I think expectations should be managed (relatively speaking), am I crazy to think he could be somewhere between serviceable-to-decent in the latter half of 2023? And if so, IMO the Jays’ rotation seems pretty set.
If you agree with those two assumptions, what are your thoughts on the rotation as constructed? (I think it's pretty damn good!) OTOH, if you think the odds are that Ryu won't contribute meaningfully in 2023, should the Jays be looking at adding one more depth starter? (And who would you like to see them add?) — steve-o
Thanks for the question and the support, man! The thing about Ryu's timeline is that I think you really have to read those reports as being optimistic.
Ryu went under the knife on June 18th, and the recovery time for TJ is usually viewed as 12 to 18 months. There are advancements with these sorts of things over time — you may recall that there was some question when it first became clear that he needed the surgery as to whether it would be a "full" TJ or a lesser procedure, which was new (ultimately it was determined that he required the "full" version) — so maybe that standard timeline is becoming obsolete. But I have no reason to think that July isn't basically the best case scenario here. And, per the language of the reports, that's just what he's "targeting." That he's apparently "on schedule" is great, but I'm still skeptical that a 35-year-old “feel” pitcher with a history of arm trouble is going to hit that target.
Even if he is, the Jays are going to have to be prepared for life without him all year. I don't think they're going to build their rotation with the expectation that Ryu is going to parachute in by the All-Star break, or help them at all. Honestly, I think it’s just as likely that there won’t be a spot for him to jump back into. It could get tricky.
And, while I know hardly anything about how the insurance aspect of this situation works, I also wonder about that. There would seem to me to be a pretty big incentive for the team to draw out his return if they felt there was better value in eventually recouping more dollars via the insurance policy than in having him on the mound — though how it's decided for insurance purposes that he's fully healthy, and whether a team could actually exploit that process if they wanted to, is beyond me.
That said, I obviously hope Ryu gets healthy as quickly as possible and can step right back into the rotation like nothing ever happened. There’s an outside chance that he could even be better, considering the time off to heal and the fact that he was likely pitching with a bad arm for quite some time before it was decided surgery was the only option. I just can't exactly say that I'm expecting such an outcome.
In other words, I think the Jays could still really use one more starter — in addition to the recent depth additions of Drew Hutchison (who has returned to the club on a minor league deal with an invite to spring training) and Zach Thompson (who was acquired last week from Pittsburgh for bench outfield prospect Chavez Young).
Given the strength of their front four, this maybe isn’t as much of a priority at the moment as a right-handed-hitting outfielder or another swing-and-miss reliever, but you’d feel awfully good about the roster if they managed to add both of those and a more reliable fifth starter. (Johnny Cueto would have looked nice in that role before he was picked up by the Marlins. Of course, his addition there now means Miami likely has too many starters, and with LHB Joey Wendle looking like their primary shortstop going into opening day — and having traded Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers last week — perhaps a deal involving someone like Santiago Espinal could finally dislodge one of their long-coveted arms).
Can I piggyback on Steve-O's question: If we don't sign another SP, how likely is it that we see an opener to try to maximize whoever ends up in that 5th spot? If so, who do you like there? Am I crazy for dreaming on a Pearson/Kikuchi tandem? — Player to be Named Later
You sure can, PTBNL. I definitely agree that the idea of a Pearson/Kikuchi tandem is intriguing, but I don’t think being an every-start opener for a specific starter is a job any reliever should be given. In this case, doing so would rule Pearson out of a lot of late-game opportunities where he could potentially be very useful, while also limiting overall flexibility by locking him into a roster spot that isn’t necessarily even his to begin with. (Right now it would seem that six relievers — Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Yimi Garcia, Anthony Bass, Tim Mayza, and Adam Cimber — are locks, leaving only two spots for the likes of Pearson, Trevor Richards, Zach Pop, Trent Thornton, Matt Gage, the loser of the fifth starter competition, and whoever might still be added or win a job in the spring).
You’re not wrong that matching the two up often would certainly be a way to potentially build up some much-needed innings for Nate, while making life a little bit easier for Kikuchi. But that wouldn’t necessarily have to mean using Pearson as an opener and, frankly, I kind of hate the idea of Nate pitching a great inning or two only for “the bad Kikuchi” to show up and completely waste that good work. If Kikuchi is going to implode, get that out of the way first. Better still, if Kikuchi is going to implode as often as in 2022, or has to be so shielded from the top of the lineup as to require an opener, maybe just find someone else.
I know it has been written about a bit already, but I'm starting to get nervous about the vibes situation. I know winning is the best vibes, and there was a segment of the fanbase that thought they weren’t "serious" enough, but the departures of Teoscar and Lourdes does make me feel like we've lost something. Thoughts? — giant badger
I mean, I definitely would rather watch a baseball team that plays fun and loose than one that’s all-in on Little League “play the right way” red ass nonsense, but what exactly did those vibes get us?
I don’t mean in any way to say that the “vibes” — or perceived lack of seriousness, or whatever — had anything to do with missing the playoffs by a game in 2021, or the most embarrassing two-game exit imaginable in 2022, but they didn’t exactly prevent those things from happening either.
Thing is, I think that when we talk about “vibes” we’re really talking about having a good, positive work environment where everybody is on the same page and enjoying themselves while striving to be successful. That’s definitely something to aim for in roster-building, and something the Jays do think a lot about. But that kind of an environment can exist without some of the more outward silliness we’ve seen from the dugout over the last few years, and I think it has occasionally been too easy for fans to believe that it can’t.
Then again, in the time since you submitted this question the Jays added a guy who showed up to opening day last year in a boat, wearing a captain’s hat, with a an electrical tape “C” on his jersey, so they’ve already replaced some of the silliness quotient departing in their earlier deals anyway.
That doesn’t mean that something hasn’t been lost here, but based on the hints of factionalism that surfaced in the wake of Charlie Montoyo’s firing, I think it’s safe to say that the “vibes” were off this year. And while I absolutely don’t think that Lourdes and Teoscar were shipped out solely to adjust clubhouse chemistry — there were very clear baseball reasons, and contractual reasons, to move them — it’s entirely fair and appropriate for the front office to think about ways to foster the best possible working environment for their group. And fair to let some of that stuff factor into the decisions they ultimately made with those trades.
It will be a bit of a different team to watch without those two. In the sense that it will potentially make an entertainment product less entertaining. I’ll miss watching those guys out there having fun. I guess I’m just not sure what there is to be nervous about.
After the Bassitt signing, I heard or read about him talking about PitchCom, something to the effect of: I would be fine with it if I was the one calling the pitches. This seems an obvious point that I had never thought of. The idea of the catcher calling pitches makes sense through old fashioned signs, but with PitchCom, the pitcher could simply take the calling device and tell the catcher what pitch he wants. Do you know if this has this been discussed or considered anywhere? Is it actually prohibited? Keep up the great work! — Bryan
Thanks so much for the question, man. And the support!
Yeah, I’m sure it’s definitely prohibited, or Bassitt would have been doing it. “The catchers have to push the button,” he told the New York Daily News back in May. “I’m really hoping that MLB decides that I can push the button that I want to throw. That’ll speed it up.”
Allowing pitchers to select the pitches seems like a pretty simple solution for a guy like Bassitt, who wants to call his own game, but I suppose I could understand some of the arguments against it. Aesthetics, for one. Would allowing this lead to catchers shaking off pitchers? Because that might look just a bit too goofy for a league that has tried to maintain the traditional look of the game while implementing newfangled rules.
For two, seeing as PitchCom exists as much to combat sign-stealing as it does to speed up the game, the issue may be that a pitcher is too out in the open. A catcher in a crouch, with a bunch of gear on, can probably better hide which buttons are being pressed on the PitchCom unit than someone standing on the mound.
Then again, maybe it is something that’s being considered! I honestly have no idea.
Where does this offseason rank compared to the past two or three?
Signing Ryu, Springer and Gausman felt like successful offseasons, but this doesn't have the same feel to it.
Benefit of hindsight helps with past seasons, but I need to be talked out of the idea the Jays are worse on several fronts. — Rob C.
Thanks for the question and the support, man! I’ll point out here that your question was asked before the Belt acquisition. That one may not have changed how you feel about this winter, but I hope it did, because I pretty strongly disagree with the idea that the Jays are worse. Or that this offseason doesn’t easily rank with those ones.
This all depends on your criteria, I suppose. If you're just looking for splashy deals and shiny baubles, perhaps this one doesn't quite hold up. But I think it's a very different story if you're taking about coming out of the winter with as complete a roster as possible, which the Jays have done a much better job of this year than in any of those previous years. Of course, largely that's because getting to this point is part of a progression. You can only do so much each winter. Which is why I'd prefer not to try to rank them.
But let's think beyond the big names of those previous winters, shall we?
The Jays added Ryu heading into 2020, but they also added Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson for their rotation, went with Travis Shaw as their everyday third baseman, Cavan Biggio/Joe Panik at second, and stuck with Randal Grichuk as an everyday guy. It was an exciting time — the team was on the upswing — and the Ryu deal was so transformational, symbolically, that it remains defensible despite how little he’s pitched for the team over the life of the contract, but I don’t think that’s an especially great offseason.
They obviously hit the jackpot heading into 2021, adding Springer, Ray, Semien, and Steven Matz, but Ray and Matz were hardly sure things at that point, T.J. Zeuch started the year in the rotation because Ray was hurt, Roark was still around (Alek Manoah's incredibly fast emergence saved their bacon there), Biggio was handed third base for some reason, and the only major thing they did to address a bad bullpen was add Kirby Yates — a move that immediately blew up in their faces. Even Semien came with questions. Springer was great, otherwise hindsight makes that one feel significantly better than it did at this stage of that winter.
Last year saw big wins in the form of Gausman and Matt Chapman, but those really only offset the losses of Ray and Semien. Otherwise there were ill-fated rolls of the dice on Yusei Kikuchi and Raimel Tapia, and no improvement to the bullpen outside of the addition of Yimi Garcia.
I don't even disagree that those were pretty good offseasons. You're not going to hit on everything. You're going to have to take some risks. You're going to lose productive players from time to time. What matters is the team you end up with, and when I look at the current roster I don't see Roak-like, Shaw-like, Biggio-like holes. I see a team that has added two excellent late-inning arms since the trade deadline, upgraded on their departing fourth starter, and traded two guys with a year remaining on their deals, plus a prospect they had no room for, to massively upgrade their defence, all while replacing much of that lost production and finally managing to balance their lineup.
It's not perfect, there are still additions I'd like to see them make, and there are definitely ways that it could blow up in their faces — going with Kikuchi/White could obviously be very bad, Berríos may not bounce back, the bullpen still lacks a bit high-quality depth, and they've added a pair of injury-prone guys (Belt, Kiermaier) to go along with Springer and Danny Jansen. But this is a much better team than they ended the season with. I really don't see any argument to the contrary.
Hey Andrew. Long time reader/first time subscriber — sorry it took so long!
I'm looking for your thoughts on what the Jays do on the fourth outfielder front. Assuming for this question that the Jays go the free agent route (versus a trade or internal resource), which free agent do you feel is the best fit and why is Robbie Grossman someone who seems to be in the conversation?
As I dig into the data, I'm personally hopeful that the Jays can sign Andrew McCutchen. He bats right (something the Jays suddenly need since the Varsho trade) and hits well-ish against lefties (.737 OPS in 2022). More importantly, he doesn't completely suck against righties (.685 OPS last year) and can play in the field at a reasonably competitive level (OAA of +2 last year).
I see many fans are clamouring for someone who really mashes lefties like A.J. Pollock, Adam Duvall or Robbie Grossman, but any of those guys will likely be expected to face a lot of RHPs when Kiermaier and/or Springer are either injured, enjoying off days, or DH-ing. And all three of them are particularly bad against RHP (the highest OPS against RHP for these three is Duvall at .620 and he isn't as good defensively as McCutchen).
I'm not entirely sure why Grossman is even being talked about for this role (though who am I to question Dan Shulman, who is someone who did?), as while Grossman was great against LHP in 2022 with Detroit (.998 OPS) he was much worse after the trade to Atlanta (.669 vs. LHP) and doesn't bring anything else to the table (.509 vs. RHP all season) and UZR/150 of -4.4 defensively. — Nick
Thanks so much for the question, and for your new support, Nick! I must say, though, I don’t exactly agree here. Not because you’re wrong about the numbers or anything, but because I don’t see the role of the player we’re talking about in the same way. My guess is that the Jays are not looking for a traditional fourth outfielder, but that they’re looking for a lefty-mashing hitter who can play some outfield. A Steve Pearce type. And I think the guy you’re bringing in to primarily hit against left-handed pitching should be as good as possible a hitter against left-handed pitching as you can find.
Between Whit Merrifield and Santiago Espinal from the right side, and Cavan Biggio, plus a trio of minor leaguers on the 40-man (Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, and Spencer Horwitz) from the left, the Jays have enough pieces to cover second base and left field fairly adequately in the event of an outfielder or two landing on the IL, regardless of the opposing pitcher’s handedness. That’s especially so because Merrifield has had a fairly neutral platoon split over the last four years. That being the case, I tend to look at the role you’re talking about as being more a pinch hitter, or platoon partner for Brandon Belt, who will occasionally play the outfield, rather than a fourth outfielder.
Or, at least, now I do. At the time you submitted your question Belt wasn’t here yet, so a more balanced player would have made more sense. I still would have said I tended toward a lefty-masher, but I now feel even stronger about that. I just don’t think this player is going to be pressed into action defensively as much as your question assumes — and I wonder if the reason that the Jays haven’t landed one of those bigger names yet is precisely because they don’t have all that many at-bats to offer.
I certainly wouldn’t have been mad if they had ended up coming out of this with McCutchen — Cutch is fun as hell! — nor am I banging the drum for Grossman, or anybody else. But I do think the best way to use that roster spot is by going after a hitter first. Grossman would be a great fit, even considering his poor couple of months in Atlanta.
[Note: I feel like I should add here — because tons of people don’t know this, and I didn’t know it myself until I was corrected by Mike Petriello a few months ago — that UZR is basically a dead metric, particularly when it comes to determining range. Fielders’ starting positions weren’t precisely tracked until Statcast came into existence, and because UZR predates that, it uses a fielder’s “typical” starting position. This is a problem!
You may remember how the Jays and Brett Lawrie “broke” DRS back in 2012 by shifting the third baseman into short right field in certain alignments. For a while, before anyone realized, DRS was giving Lawrie credit for making plays in right field from a starting position at third base. He looked like the best defender to have ever played the game. Literally! He had a +21 DRS by the end of May; in the last two years only three players have reached that mark over the course of a full season.
UZR, which is based on the same Baseball Info Solutions data as DRS, had avoided this problem for a very simple reason: it ignores plays made in the shift. That may have seemed like an elegant solution back in 2012, but in the shift-heavy MLB of a decade later it means UZR is ignoring so many plays as to render itself functionally useless. Or, at the very least, it’s downright antiquated compared to Statcast and OAA. This is the main reason FanGraphs made the switch to Outs Above Average as the range component of their WAR calculations back in April.]
I gave myself a mighty headache this off season trying to figure which catcher should go and which two should stay. Are you happy with the way that all broke? — Patborderschaw
Thanks for the question and the support, man. Yeah, I am.
That feels weird to type, because I think Moreno is clearly has the best chance to be the best of that bunch, long-term. And I think that the rule changes that have led to increased base stealing in the minors are only going to make his skillset more valuable. But I completely get the Jays’ choice not to try to break in a new catcher during such a pivotal season. Especially when you look at the player they got back, and how his glove transforms the outfield and — because of his ability to catch — the bench.
Without Varsho, the Jays would need to carry an extra catcher, leaving just one roster spot for Brandon Belt and the right-handed-hitting outfielder we were talking about above. Now they can carry both, which means adding a strong bat to face right-handed pitchers, and another to face lefties, rather than one imperfect player to fill both roles. It’s hard to overstate how important that is, especially since Varsho brings elite outfield defence and a very strong bat from the left side himself.
It’s a risk, for sure. And I understand anybody being taken aback by sending Gurriel to Arizona in addition Moreno — the guy with the extra years of control who is probably the best regarded player in the deal. But it truly is the win-now move. Varsho fits so perfectly that unless you’re really down on his bat — which is fair, though I’d caution against drawing conclusions from his overall numbers given how pronounced the difference between his exit velocities against right- and left-handed pitchers have been *COUGH* — that it’s hard to find fault with how it’s worked out.
In your Varsho reaction piece, you speculated on if the Jays wouldn't have signed Kiermaier if they knew they could make this trade. I actually thought about the Teoscar trade as well, and if the Jays would still make *that* deal knowing they were going to part ways with Gurriel. The losses of an elite hitter in Teo, and one good-to-occasionally-elite hitter in Gurriel are pretty substantial (not to mention the dugout vibes!), and while I very much value the bullpen help we got in Erik Swanson, I think I'd prefer the offensive upside of a Teo-Varsho-Springer (and maybe a defensive fourth outfielder) outfield to what we have today (which, if you remove the $9 million to Kiermaier, would have cost around the same I think...).
Let me simplify this to a thought exercise: Do you think if the Jays made the Varsho trade on day one of the offseason, would they still have shopped Teo?
Thanks as always for your great coverage! — Kyle R.
Yes.
Or… I mean… thanks for the question and the kind words, man. But yeah, I think they would have. Probably Lourdes too.
Both those guys had just a year left on their contracts, which is reason alone to at least explore the market. Add in that they both contributed significantly to two of the team’s most glaring and longstanding weaknesses — poor outfield defence and a lack of balance in the lineup, which the front office clearly felt they needed to do something about — and I think it’s pretty hard to conclude otherwise. And that’s without touching on whether or not the vibe shift stuff was intentional.
Like, you don’t just trade Teoscar for a reliever by accident. Especially if you know you have enough money to go and sign a Kiermaier and sign a Bassitt and sign a Belt.
Of course, as with most of the other questions in this belated mail bag, in fairness I must point out here that Belt had yet to be signed when you submitted this one. So, hopefully you feel a bit better about the situation now. It wasn’t always easy along the way to see how things would take shape, but I think it’s definitely been improved.
Andrew, I understand and support the decisions that the Blue Jays made when they traded Teoscar and Lourdes. From a strictly baseball perspective, the deals make sense. The defense and relief pitching needed to be improved. Teoscar's salary could be better allocated to address needs. However, I wonder how this change will affect the all important concept of team chemistry. I also question how Vladdy will react to two of his closest friends on the team being traded. I know that trades happen and players have to “wear their big boy pants,” but he is human and this might bother him. What are your thoughts? — Paul
Thanks for the question, man! Obviously we’ve covered a lot of this stuff already — and will no doubt get into it again below — but as for Vlad, specifically, I tend to think he has to wear his big boy pants. Except… well… that probably doesn’t give enough credit to him. Vlad’s been in and around the game for literally his entire life, so he knows how it works and has seen plenty of friends and teammates come and go. These guys obviously meant a lot to each other, but they’re also professionals. I don’t see it as anything to worry about.
Is there an argument that someone with a strong split, like Varsho, is better/more valuable than someone with the same average stats but no platoon split? Leaving aside for the moment any hoped-for or even expected improvement in his splits.
In other words, is it mathematically better to have someone who's sometimes excellent over someone who's always unexceptional? Or does it come out in the wash over the long run? — Angus
Thanks for the question, and the support man! Unfortunately, I think this one is above my pay grade. Or maybe there’s just no one answer here that’s correct for any and all situations.
As I was mentioning above, for that one specific role on this particular Jays roster, I think a guy who is exceptional from one side of the plate only makes a whole lot of sense. The roster is otherwise fairly complete, so adding anywhere else would mostly be redundant. In general, though, you obviously want to get as close to covering one position with one roster spot as you can, and then build out from there. Factoring in the opportunity cost of tying up a roster spot on an extra a player with a limited role is complicated —- though, as I’ve also touched on above, Varsho adds another wrinkle to the usual calculation by being able to catch.
I can’t say it’s a good thing that Varsho may need to sit against a lot of lefties, but I wouldn’t say it’s a case of his being worse or better that a guy with less of a platoon split. Roster building is really more about making the pieces and the costs fit than it is about saying that this guy is better than that guy. And I think the Blue Jays have set their roster up so that when it comes to Varsho they fit quite well.
Hey Stoeten, in your last article you mentioned that Matt Chapman is seen as an ideal Jays player by the front office. What do you think an extension looks like? Before this winter I was thinking four years at $25 million per, but after the off-season splurge, could it be five years at $30 million? I think the defense will age reasonably well but what about the bat? He has great recognition but strikes out in the zone a lot. Is it likely that he struggles to catch up to heat more as he gets older? I mean that happens to everyone, but could it be to a level that is a significant concern in years three-to-five? — Jonathan S.
Thanks so much for the question and the support, man! I think I should first clarify that we have no idea whether Chapman is seen as an ideal player by the Jays’ front office, but I certainly think that’s a strong possibility based on a lot of what they’ve said about the types of leaders they value in the past. It definitely wouldn’t surprise me to see the Jays try to keep him around, and I think your estimations are right in the ballpark with respect to the total dollars, though perhaps not the term.
Josh Donaldson got four years and $92 million from the Twins when heading into his age-34 season back in 2020. Chapman will be 30 this year, and 31 in his first year of free agency. Donaldson had age and health questions going against him, but his bat was considerably more special. You're not wrong that there are concerns with Chapman’s bat — the way the strikeout rate has risen is worth noting, and the batting average tends to be a bit low — though I can't say I'm worried about bat speed at this stage. In fact, his exit velocity and hard hit rate bounced back nicely in 2022 after he struggled the previous year following hip surgery that ended his 2020 season early. Could be a concern later in his career, but that doesn’t exactly make him unique.
So, it's not a perfect comparison with Donaldson, but I think six years at an AAV more like $23 million that the former MVP landed three years ago is probably closer to what we’re talking about. Or maybe even less. Coming off of a down year offensively, Trevor Story got six years and $140 million ($23.3 million AAV) as a free agent from the Red Sox a year ago, when he was heading into his age-29 season. Chapman could theoretically beat that with a monster year heading into free agency at 31, but that would be awfully difficult and would mean making a big bet on himself. A tough season at the plate, or another one where the defensive metrics don’t like him the way they used to, and Chapman’s outlook as a free agent could be quite a bit different than the numbers we’re talking about here.
I don’t know how much money the Jays would have to put in front of him before that security looked like a better option than rolling the dice and hitting the market, but I think something approaching $120 million is probably the right ballpark — right between your two original numbers.
Hey Stoeten — so glad for this 2023 mailbag!
Do you know if the current playing surface is that much worse on knees than grass? Or is it just previous iterations of AstroTurf that gave the carpet a bad name?
I really like the potential of Kevin Kiermaier in centre but have cold sweats about how likely it might be that he dives for a ball and shatters into a million pieces.
I wonder if throwing down an extra foot of rubber could mitigate any such issues or if it’s a Princess and Pea scenario. — Christ on a Bike
Thanks so much for the question and kind words! I think it’s definitely that the old turf has given it a bad name. Which isn’t to say that the new stuff is perfect, or that I have stepped on it enough to really know, but I think the fact that a guy like Kiermaier signed here at all is pretty telling. As is the fact that few, if any, of George Springer’s many maladies seem to have been related to the turf — his issues being more to do with walls, throwing, and Bo Bichette.
As for an extra foot of rubber, I might think that would go too far the other way. You want it play like grass, not like a trampoline or something!
I have a feeling the Charlie Montoya ordeal had a traumatizing effect on the front office; much more than what we've read about. The lack of accountability and maturity he might have failed at fostering, and the aftermath of that and the decision to fire him, likely caused the front office dire pressure. Are most of the moves this offseason a result of that and might such a directional change be the right one? — Jay A.
Thanks for the question and the support, man! I must say, though, that I definitely don’t see Montoyo’s firing that way at all. Nothing about it, as far as has been reported, had anything to do with a failure to foster maturity or accountability. It seems to have mostly been about the manager’s own lack of leadership.
Now, certain teammates’ lack of maturity, lack of accountability, could absolutely be an element of what some of the players felt was the problem. But, to me, what you’re saying reads a little too closely to suggesting that the manager was fired because players were having too much fun, or weren’t serious enough — something I’m sure many of the types of folks that hated the home run jacket would like to believe, but that we really have no reason to believe.
“When you’re 1-9, you’re looking for someone to come in and either kick you in the ass or pump you up, just something, some guidance,” is what one player told Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic at the time. “And you could have it as players, for sure, and we did, but you really do need it coming from the top and that just wasn’t happening.”
Gregor Chisholm added this in a piece for the Toronto Star:
“A player recently approached Star colleague Mike Wilner to ask whether Montoyo had been ripping his pitching staff to the media. Privately, another expressed frustration that Montoyo hadn’t addressed the team when things got tough during the recent 1-6 road trip. Publicly, pitcher Kevin Gausman questioned his team’s approach to defensive shifts.”
As for the pressure all of this may have caused the front office, and the reaction it may have caused, I think it’s worth remembering that in their work they’re constantly under pressure, and make a point of trying to take messy emotions out their decision-making process as much as possible. I think it’s also worth remembering that literally from the day Montoyo was hired there were people who viewed him as a soft hand to help guide a young team who would ultimately need to give way to a stronger personality when the time came — with many of those same people identifying John Schneider as potentially that guy.
So, while I’m sure they weren’t happy to feel they had to make the decisions to pivot how and when they did, or to move on from a colleague they’d been working with for so long, I would certainly hesitate to use the word “traumatizing.” I also would hesitate to view this winter’s moves too much through this lens. Run prevention and lineup balance are issues they’ve needed to address for a long time, and the fact that what they did in 2022 and 2021 didn’t work, combined with Gurriel and Hernández entering the final years of their contracts, and Springer reaching the point where he needs to spend less time in centre, would have made such changes make sense regardless of who the manager was.
Hi Andrew — who the hell is Davis Schneider?
Or: Looking at that Fangraphs article you previously cited, can you talk us through the various "1 WAR" infielders in the org. There seem to be several that have been pretty under the radar including, Schneider. — Danny
Thanks for the question and the support, Danny! For those who haven’t clicked, the article in question here is the recent ZiPS projections for the Jays, which were released in mid-December.
Schneider pops up with a nifty 1.6 WAR projection, which puts him ahead of Cavan Biggio, Kevin Keirmaier, Orelvis Martinez, Gabriel Moreno, Whit Merrifield, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Thing is, he… uh… also wasn’t added to the Jays’ 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 draft, despite having reached Triple-A and being eligible for selection, and then was passed over by every team in the league. So… it’s probably best not to do our scouting from projections.
That said, Schneider isn’t a non-prospect. He actually had a pretty interesting 2022 season, slashing .253/.366/.457 across three levels, reaching Buffalo by the end of the year. Add in 17 steals in 19 attempts and a touch of defensive versatility (he spent time this year at second, third, and as a corner outfielder) and the Jays might have themselves a useful player at some point.
The ZiPS thing, however, would seem to just be a quirk of the nature of these systems, and the fact that there are some pretty big error bars around all of this stuff — particularly when conclusions are being drawn from minor league data (and even more particularly when it’s of the defensive variety). Though the projections are a bit of a black box, we can see that Schneider has a fairly pedestrian wRC+ projection of 93, but gets high marks defensively. I don't know enough about his defence — or what precisely ZiPS is looking at here — to say a whole lot. But considering that he's not going to play a premium defensive position, I… uh… I’m betting the under.
The other guys on there, if they’re under the radar, are probably under the radar for similar reasons.
Hey Stoeten,
It seems to me at this point the Jays outfield is definitely better on defence and more balanced, but is that enough to overcome (what I’m thinking will be) the offsetting loss of run creation?
I know the front office has talked before about wanting to be successful continually rather than the old all-in then rebuild model. How much do you think that’s factored in trying to get something for Teo rather than him walking at the end of his deal and acquiring a reliever with prospects or cash? — Simon F.
Thanks for the questions and the support, Simon! Clearly the Jays agreed with your concerns regarding the first question, and the addition of Belt is their answer.
As far as the second question goes, the “sustained success” thing is a line that every team uses, so I don’t want to put to much stock into that specifically. But I definitely think Teoscar’s contract situation was a major factor here — among others, of course, as we’ve discussed. And you make an excellent point about moving prospects, which the Jays have quite conspicuously avoided doing this winter, Moreno aside. Partly that could have been a function of the market — we heard after the Varsho deal that it’s been difficult to make prospect-for-established-player deals this winter — but I think it’s fair to assume that the Jays weren’t terribly interested in sending out a high volume of prospects if they could avoid it.
Moreno is a big aside, obviously, but that’s lowkey another win for this winter — not just keeping guys like Ricky Tiedemann, but also ones like Barger, Horwitz, Yosver Zulueta, etc. Guys who might be able to step in and really help the big league team at some point in the coming season or two, which is something that they haven’t had a ton of the last couple years.
Hi Andrew! With rumblings around Johnny Cueto (since signed by the Marlins) and the potential July return of Hyun Jin-Ryu, how aggressive could you see the Blue Jays being with Ricky Tiedemann? In my mind I could see him having a Manoah-like end to his minor league career: a longer look at AA before a few starts at AAA and then arriving in the majors sometime during the 2023 season. How could he figure into the rotation questions that may remain? — noah v.
Tiedemann definitely could factor into the Jays’ 2023 plans at some point, but I think we probably need to slow our roll a little bit on him. Like Ryu, I don’t think they’re building their rotation with the expectation that he’s going to ride in at some point and save them.
Also, let’s keep in mind a couple things about Manoah. One is that he is something of a unicorn. Another is that he had a lot stronger foundation of innings at this stage than Tiedemann does. Alek threw 108 1/3 innings for West Virginia in his draft year, then debuted at Vancouver and added another 17. That’s a base of more than 125 innings heading into his first full pro year. We don’t really know how to calculate what he did during the cancelled minor league season of 2020, but when he returned to competitive ball in 2021, he didn’t go very far beyond his college/High-A limit, reaching just 129 2/3 innings between Buffalo and Toronto. He’s never thrown an inning at Double-A.
Tiedemann, on the other hand, maxed out at 53 2/3 innings in high school, pitched just 38 innings for Golden West College in his draft year, and last year logged 79 2/3 between three pro stops. Surely there are non-competitive innings in there as well, which would add to the total, but I think it’s safe to assume that he’s going to have his workload limited to a much greater degree than Manoah’s was in 2021.
That doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t be a factor, but Manoah only made three Triple-A starts — albeit in a season that didn’t start until early May — before being called up to the majors for good. It could be a long, long time before ever we see an ascent like that again. This is potentially more of a 2016 Aaron Sanchez situation.
In other words, it’s going to be tricky with Tiedemann, I think. I hope! He looks like a guy who could potentially help out at the big league level at some point, but it’s really important to both build up that strong foundation for him to be a starter in the years ahead while also not overdoing it. It’s a needle to thread, but a good problem to have.
How much of a difference do you think the rule changes will make, specifically the changes to the bases, and have the Jays done enough to address the roster to reflect them changes. — Band of Gypsies
Thanks for the question and the support! I can really only tell you as much as I’ve read about the effects of the rule changes in the minor leagues, which MLB used as a testing ground this season. J.J. Cooper of Baseball America had a great roundup of all of this back in September and basically concluded that the changes to the bases barely had an impact.
MLB first tested the smaller bases in two minor leagues during the second half of 2021, with no other rule changes being made simultaneously, allowing us to compare the data from each half of those seasons. Cooper writes: "In 2021, in the first half with smaller bases, Pacific Coast League teams stole .66 bases per game at a 75% success rate. In the second half of the season with the larger bases, they stole .61 bases per game at a 75% success rate. The International League saw steals go up from .76 stolen bases per game with the smaller bases to .83 bases with the larger bases, but the success rate dipped from 77% with smaller bases to 76% with larger bases."
Stolen base rates did go up in a more significant way in the minors in 2022, but Cooper’s data points to the pitch clock and the limits on times a pitcher can attempt a pickoff as the reason. Whether any of this will even be noticeable is unclear, I think.
On a per-game basis we're talking about an uptick from 1.1 stolen base attempts per game in the minors in 2019 to 1.4 per game in 2022. That works out to nearly 50 additional stolen base attempts per 162 games — though it's important to recognize that only half of those 50 additional attempts on average will be against your catchers, with the other half being against your opponents'. So that's about 25 extra attempts for your catchers to face per season, which is about four for every month, or one per week.
League-wide that adds up, but for an individual team I don't think that's a difference you're going to make wholesale changes for. And that could be part of the reason why the Jays didn't hold more tightly onto Gabriel Moreno, who would have been their best weapon to stop the running game.
Hi Andrew, I was wondering if you can see any movement by the Jays to extend either Vladdy or Bo or both this year. My concern is if they don't do it now the players will start wondering about whether they would be best to wait for free agency, which in my opinion would be a disaster. — Bob P.
Hey man, thanks for the question and the support! The thing about this is, I’m sure the players are already wondering about whether they’d be best to wait for free agency. That’s sort of the central question to the entire process, which has been ongoing for a while now.
When asked about extensions for Vlad and Bo last month, here’s how Mark Shapiro responded:
It's safe to say that we've engaged at multiple junctures with every arbitration-eligible player who with think is a core player.
If a player is a core player, and he's arbitration-eligible, or even before, we take certain junctures in time — usually the spring. And, again, we will never report on negotiations, those are private. But, just like I said you can guess that most trades that people come up with, those ideas have been explored if they're not preposterous, we've also explored (this).
The challenge with multi-year contracts for young players is that they are all about sharing risk, and you look for the sweet spot where the player is comfortable giving up the upside of free agency, or the upside of arbitration, and the club is comfortable with the risk in performance or injury. And you look for — can you find that sweet spot where both parties feel good about giving up something. That's what we continue to do, and will continue to do.
So they’ve been talking. They’ll talk. As for whether there will be any movement, who knows? It would be nice! But, as has been said many times before, there maybe just aren’t the same incentives to take “life-changing” money when your dads made tens of millions of dollars in the game. ($42.8 million in big league salary alone for Dante Bichette, $125.5 million for Vlad Sr.).
We just saw with the Red Sox and Rafael Devers that long-term extensions can still happen once a player gets within a year of free agency, and we’re still two years away from Bo and Vlad entering their final seasons before potentially hitting the open market, so I don’t think the timeline is quite as dire as you fear. But this is obviously a very big question looming over the franchise, especially with both players set to reach free agency after 2025.
Losing both for nothing at the same time would absolutely be a disaster for the Blue Jays — you’re not wrong about that. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they have to get extensions done or that it has to be this winter. Trades, eventually, aren’t completely out of the question. Or there’s a pretty simple way to get them to forgo free agency and sign extensions at just about any point, and that’s to make it worth their while financially. Neither side needs to blink just yet.
Hey there. It seems that most of the roster is set now, as per the latest word from Atkins. Given that implies Kikuchi is definitely going to be getting a long leash, at least initially, how likely do you think he can harness all that clearly visible talent into a serviceable performance as a starting pitcher this year? And similarly for Berrios, though his track record suggests the question is less uncertain. It was unsaid, but I assume the defensive upgrades in the outfiekld play a big part in that equation. — Dave
Thanks for the question, man, and for the support. But, uh, do we think that Kikuchi is going to get a long leash? After you submitted this one the team added Drew Hutchison and Zach Thompson. Mitch White is still around. The team seems to believe that Yosver Zulueta doesn’t need to be shifted to the bullpen just yet. Thomas Hatch is still here, despite a couple of mostly lost seasons. They seem to think pretty highly of Bowden Francis. Though his innings may be limited this year, Nate Pearson may head to Dunedin as more of a starter than a reliever, at least to begin with. I don't think it's at all impossible that one of these guys could pitch his way into Kikuchi's presumed spot with a breakthrough spring training performance — and I certainly don't think it's impossible that Kikuchi could pitch his way out. Nor do I think another small rotation addition is out of the question.
The Jays understand the value of an extra win here or there for a team at their place on the win curve. Conversely they must also understand how badly a repeat of Kikuchi's 2022 performance would hurt them. You're right that part of the emphasis on outfield defence this winter has been to help him and Berríos — and Kevin Gausman, who somehow managed to be the losing pitcher 10 times in 31 starts despite having the best FIP in the American League — but I don't think those changes are an acknowledgement that Yusei is that much in the picture.
As for how likely it is that he can figure it out, your guess is as good as mine. Though it's worth noting here that my soon-to-return podcast cohost, Nick Ashbourne, wrote last week for Sportsnet about the history of pitchers rebounding from seasons as bad as Kikuchi's, and the results aren't pretty.
To me this is probably more of a 2021 Tanner Roark situation, where the money owed gives Kikuchi a leg up on the competition, but only to a point. Roark threw just seven innings for the Jays that season before he was sent packing. Kikuchi's extra year, and extra dollars, makes this an imperfect comparison, but clearly they've given themselves options if they want to very quickly change course. They're bad options, mind you, but based on what we saw last year, the bar is set pretty low here.
Happy New Year Andrew, a new subscriber here.
I have a question about Ricky Tiedemann:
Do you think he is untouchable in a trade scenario or could he be added in the right transaction? — Marco O.
Happy belated New Year to you as well, Marco. Thanks for coming aboard!
As for your question, I have no idea, but you can really only ever look foolish by saying anyone is untouchable, so I’m not going to say that about Tiedemann. We saw firsthand this winter with Moreno that the even the game’s truly elite prospects can be moved if the deal is right. It would be very hard to make such a deal involving Tiedemann at this point, I think, and I don’t expect it to happen, but it depends what’s going the other way. Four years of a Juan Soto-type? I think the Jays would at least have that discussion, rather than immediately saying that he’s off limits.
I have no questions. What will be will be. This is my new mantra. — OzRob
An incredibly healthy attitude that will serve you well following the sport of baseball!
Do you think we will hear less about teams not trading within the division now that the schedule is balanced? — Adam L.
I don’t! It’s still incredibly advantageous to win your division, and I think the fear of making the teams you’re in most direct competition with better has always been the driver of the reticence to do deals with them — not so much the optics of it, or whatever else the slightly more balanced schedule may have changed.
Maybe a pointless thought here, but when I saw the Swanson contract with the Cubs I started wondering if there could have been merit in signing him and trading Bo. A moot issue, since he’s signed away, but it was a seven year deal at a decent AAV. He’s a known commodity with a solid floor and can be relied on for his defence. Then Bo could be flipped for another type of impact player with term. Would this have been worth considering? I imagine Bo has great value on the trade market and it would lock up a key position for the near and long term, since they haven’t signed Bichette yet. I’ll hang up and listen to your response (which I suspect will be rightfully putting this idea down). — Landon
Thanks for the question and the support, man. Yeah, you’re right that I’ll be putting the idea down. Only mildly though, I hope. There are two reasons for that.
One, I don’t know that Swanson really is a known quantity. There are reasons to believe in his bat going forward, which is why he got the contract from the Cubs that he did, but he entered 2022 as an 88 wRC+ hitter for his career. He’s really only had one great season, so there’s definitely risk in that contract, even if the defence has been reliably excellent.
Two, while Bo absolutely would have great value on the trade market in the abstract, turning that value into the kind of win-now pieces the Jays need would be difficult to do.
Because he only has three years left before free agency, it wouldn’t make much sense for most rebuilding teams to go after Bo, so that limits his market. The Jays would need a win-now trade partner. And, more specifically, they’d need a win-now trade partner willing to give back win-now pieces for him — and they’d need that team to feel like they’re taking a step forward by doing so. To get full value in return, they’d also need this to be a win-now team, with win-now pieces to trade, that views Bo as a shortstop long-term — which some teams at this point may not. Now your market is severely limited.
I think ESPN’s Jeff Passan did a good job of addressing this sort of idea when speaking on the Fan 590 not long after the Teoscar trade, reminding fans that “whereas with Teoscar Hernández, because there was only one year left on his contract, it mitigated the value on the return. For Bo Bichette you'd need to get full freight, and there aren't a lot of players out there who equal full freight for Bo Bichette.”
Now imagine trying to do all that when you’ve already signed Swanson and everybody knows you’re going to be moving Bichette. Maybe not impossible, but incredibly difficult. And for what?
On the other hand, signing Swanson — or Bogaerts — and simply moving Bo to second base? I could have got behind that.
Hey Stoeten, Happy New Year!
Do the Jays (or the industry in general) struggle to properly evaluate defensive ability in the minors? The first case that comes to mind is Kevin Pillar. He was labelled a bat-first corner outfielder who can maybe cover CF every now and then, but showed himself to be a legitimate defensive stud in CF pretty much immediately once he was given the opportunity to play.
Second case is Danny Jansen, also being labelled a bat-first catcher but became a Gold Glove nominee in his first full season (and definitely not a bullshit nomination due to stellar offensive performance).
I can fully understand a young player struggling offensively and not living up to hyped expectations, the pitchers they face in the bigs are the best they’ve ever seen. But I find it odd that defensive standouts can appear seemingly out of nowhere and catch us off guard. What do you think? — Josh B.
Hey man, happy belated New Year to you as well, and thanks for the support. Apologies for the short answer to a thoughtful question but, honestly, I think those are just guys who put the work in and got better defensively.
Hi Andrew,
Mailbag Q for you: it seems like the Jays are trading away their Latino players for white players, perhaps since they changed managers? I haven’t been counting, but it sure feels that way! Any thoughts on that? I apologize if that’s already been addressed.
First time/long time! Love your work!
Dave
Hey man, thanks so much for the question and the support! I suppose you’re not the first person to wonder if there could be some kind of a pattern here, but as I’ve repeatedly noted when talking about this winter’s trades, there were very obvious baseball and business reasons for those to happen. So, I guess I’m not sure what sort of thoughts there are to have about this other than it being a coincidence.
Concerns about race in the game are obviously important to take seriously, so I don’t want to seem flippant here, but the implication that it could be anything else — that maybe the Jays have suddenly decided they don’t like players from Latin America, except for the guys they haven’t moved and the guys they continue to bring in, or something?? — is pretty absurd, both logically and based on everything we know about the people running the team and everything they’ve ever done.
Do you think Blue Jays will try to stretch out Pearson as a starter? Or do you think the ship has finally sailed and Blue Jays will lean into developing Pearson primarily as bullpen weapon? What do you think they should do? — Jack M.
Ultimately, I think at this point it’s probably somewhere in between. I mean, I’m just guessing here, but it seems like thrusting a starter’s workload upon him would be a lot to ask at this point, given how little he’s pitched the last few years. And yet, I don’t think you want to rule that out entirely. Aiming for him to be a multi-inning reliever who gets up to like 100 IP in 2023 would seem to be a good plan that would help provide him build a good foundation to maybe take another crack at starting a year from now.
I mean, I have no idea what they’ll actually do. Maybe they’ll stretch him out in the spring and then start him in Buffalo with some innings limits and go from there, or maybe I’ve missed some indication of their plans for him over the winter. But the multi-inning route seems pretty reasonable to me.
It feels like Blue Jays finally have the ingredients for a good bullpen, with perhaps with one more piece to come — including some Triple-A depth in Zulueta, Pearson, and others.
However, the pitching staff is already at 13 and the bullpen feels rigid, as so many of the pieces are out of options (i.e. White, Kikuchi, Richards). Do you think Trevor Richards may become odd man out?
Either way, I suspect Blue Jays will hang tight, as injuries have a way of working these things out. — Jack M.
I think you’re right on all fronts — that the bullpen is maybe a little bit too rigid at the moment, that the team will probably hang on to guys like these for as long as they can, and that Richards seems like an obvious guy to depart.
As I said above, right now six relievers are locks — Romano, Swanson, Garcia, Bass, Mayza, and Cimber — which just leaves two spots for some combination of Pearson, Richards, Pop, Thornton, Gage, the loser of the fifth starter competition, and whoever might still be added or win a job in the spring.
Theoretically there’s a little extra flexibility in there because of the fact Swanson, Mayza, and Cimber can all still be optioned, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Jays are sending any of those guys to Buffalo just for the sake of keeping White/Kikuchi or Richards in the organization. And while I don’t think there’s anything wrong with having Richards and White/Kikuchi in the bullpen on opening day, it seems like a much better idea to be able to rotate guys with options through those spots throughout the year. Or, at the very least, to have guys like Pearson, Pop, Zulueta, etc., able to join the big league club without having to wait for an injury.
On the other hand, the Jays aren’t exactly in a position where they should be shedding bullpen depth. It’s a tricky situation, maybe still with multiple moving parts — deal someone like Biggio or Espinal for some kind of an arm, then deal one of these guys for some position player depth, perhaps? Something smaller?
With other clubs likely in similar situations with their own out-of-options depth guys, maybe rosters aren’t quite as set yet as they seem.
Yea or nay on these six candidates for the Level of Excellence:
José Bautista (one of two or three plausible candidates as the team’s greatest position player; see the name of this newsletter)
John Gibbons (1582 games managed, 793 wins, both second only to Cito; 53 ejections, nearly double Cito’s second-place 27)
Jerry Howarth (36 seasons as the voice of the Jays is a long time, and he refused to use either Atlanta’s or Cleveland’s team names for the last 25 of them)
Jimmy Key (third in pitcher rWAR and fWAR behind Stieb and Doc, tied with Stieb for third in ERA and first among starters, fourth in wins, second in WHIP and first among starters, fourth in innings pitched, fourth in starts, fourth in shutouts)
John Albert “Buck” Martinez (got traded to the Jays in 1981 and with the exception of a few years doing TV in Baltimore, never left; played, managed and broadcasts; lowkey arguably the face of the franchise)
Vernon Wells (fifth in position-player rWAR and fWAR, third in games played by a position player, first in at-bats, second in plate appearances, third in runs, second in hits, second in total bases, second in doubles, fourth in home runs, second in RBI, second in singles, second in extra-base hits)
Am I missing anyone? (There’s probably an argument for any of Barfield, Clancy, Edwin, Henke or Hentgen)
Thanks for all your good work—I’ve been reading since the blogspot days, and I’m glad you’re still out there writing about the Jays. — simon
Thanks for the question and the support, man. I think you could make a decent argument for any of those guys — some better than others — which I think itself is an argument for a team Hall of Fame, or something like it. There are plenty of players and personnel that maybe aren’t quite Level of Excellence material who it would still be good to honour in some kind of a permanent way.
Thing is, having seen what the debates over who deserves to be enshrined in Cooperstown have descended into over the years, I, personally, wouldn’t actually want anything to do with choosing who should be honoured. Halls of Fame — or, uh, Levels of Excellence — tend to get a bit messy, so I’d prefer just a regular old museum. Frankly, I’m still holding out hope that we may still see something like that come about in phase two of the Rogers Centre renovations.
Hi Andrew. New subscriber here. This question is about you and your career/experience covering the Blue Jays.
I am curious how often you get to watch the Jays live at the Rogers Centre throughout the season as I believe you live outside the GTA?
When you do attend the games in person, do you have a press pass/special media access, etc., or are you in the stands on your own dime?
I am interested in learning about how your access to the team has changed throughout your career pre- and post-the Athletic career.
Thanks for sharing! — Alan M.
Thanks so much, Alan. Appreciate the question and you coming aboard!
Honestly, though, not a whole lot has changed over the years in the way that I do my job — except that, yeah, I’m no longer in Toronto and not going to 60 home games a year with one of those Toronto Star passes they used to sell. I can’t remember the last time I went to a game on a press pass, so if I’m at a game those tickets are paid for. I feel like I have a pretty good relationship with the Jays’ communications folks, so it’s not as if that’s necessarily coming from their end. I just don’t really value player or manager quotes for the way that I cover the team, so I don’t even ask. (Executive quotes, obviously, are a different story).
This isn’t to say there isn’t value in talking to players or the coaching staff. Building those relationships can inform and enhance coverage in really meaningful ways, and really getting to dig deep with these guys — like David Laurila does for FanGraphs, or my pal Drew Fairservice used to do with his “My Approach” series when we were at theScore — can produce some really rich and informative content. A lot of writers, and especially readers, are better for that kind of stuff. It’s just not what I do, nor what I’ve really ever done.
I came up in the blogosphere days, when a lack of access was practically a badge of honour, and have never really aspired to obtaining it. I don’t do as much media criticism as I used to — it gets boring pointing out that Steve Simmons’ opinions are bad over and over, besides, once he uses his newspaper column to call you a front for Mark Shapiro you kind of feel like you’ve won that game — so I’d probably feel a little less like an interloper were I to show up in the press box than I did in the old days, but it’s not like it’s a fun place to be anyway. It’s a workplace.
I mean, I’m sure that when I was with the Athletic most requests would have been approved without a second thought, whereas now someone might think twice or say no when they wouldn’t have before. There may be a policy to deal with non-traditional media types like me. But, like I say, I honestly don’t know!
Thanks again everybody for all of the great questions!
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Thanks for the answer! Nice long read.
Better late than never :) Thanks for answering my question, Stoeten, and great stuff as always.