Monday Notes: Kirby Yates out "multiple weeks," links, and possibly-but-not-likely more!
I’m going to try something a little different this afternoon, and I’m going to be straight up with you as to why. It’s gorgeous outside as I write this, and so I’m going to write about the Kirby Yates news (ugh), then send a whole bunch of links your way, then go outside until the ballgame starts. Seems reasonable, right? Good!
Kirby Yates injured
Well this will certainly spoil your mood if you’re a Blue Jays fan about to go outside and enjoy the sunshine after firing off a blog post full of various links. On Monday afternoon, the Jays announced that presumptive closer Kirby Yates will miss “multiple weeks” after being diagnosed with a flexor pronator strain.
Yates definitely didn’t look sharp in the limited looks we got of him this spring, but the hope had been that he was just a little bit rusty coming off last year’s surgery. Clearly that wasn’t the case, and he has sadly hit a bit of a bump on the road to the resumption of his big league career.
We always knew something like this might happen, of course. The possibility is made clear in the terms of his contract, which pays him a $5.5 million base salary with $4.5 million in incentives. But that doesn’t make it any less of a bummer. Yates was virtually inhittable in 2019, posting a 1.19 ERA, striking out 90 batters in 60 2/3 innings, and putting up 3.4 fWAR over that span. Having that guy at the back of the Blue Jays' bullpen was an exciting proposition.
It still is. We'll just have to wait a while longer.
Maybe not even that long, really.
The Blue Jays didn't announce details about the strain, but last August, Shohei Otani was diagnosed with a "grade 1-2" flexor pronator strain, and then-Angels GM Billy Eppler announced that "a general timetable for beginning a throwing progression following this injury is 4-6 weeks."
Every arm is different, but hopefully Yates’ outlook at this point is similar.
What happens in the meantime to the closer’s role for the Jays is that they simply move one of an impressive list of relievers up a peg. Jordan Romano could take the job, and I think he’ll be the fan favourite for the role. Maybe Pete Walker’s favourite, too.
Thing is, Rafael Dolis, Tyler Chatwood, or any number of guys they have back there could probably do it, too. And in the same session, Walker talked about the importance of having guys who can pitch in high leverage situations at any point between the sixth and the ninth. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll go with some kind of a committee approach, but that probably becomes easier when the guy who was obviously going to be the closer is gone and you’re left with a bunch of relievers who weren’t necessarily expecting to have a particular inning as their responsibility anyway.
We could have a whole debate about all this, but why? The cream will rise to the top, I’m sure.
The more interesting issue is the cascading effect that Yates’ injury has on the bullpen as a whole, but even that has some fairly obvious answers. Right now RosterResource has the Jays going with a three-man bench and Romano, Dolis, Chatwood, Ryan Borucki, David Phelps, Julian Merryweather, Trent Thornton, and Franscio Liriano in the Jays' bullpen. That seems about right to me, and it leaves one roster spot, which for the moment they have going to Anthony Kay. I could also see it going to A.J. Cole, Joel Payamps, or maybe even Reese McGuire for the first few days of the season (as he might be more likely to sneak through waivers after opening day than at the end of camp, when teams still have more room for shuffling).
Either way, when Nate Pearson gets healthy he'll end up back in the rotation, Ross Stripling will likely end up back in the bullpen, and — save for further injuries and some churn among guys who can still be optioned down to the minors — this conversation will be relatively mute until Yates gets healthy.
Hopefully that won’t be too far into the future.
Links!
• First up, for those anyone who has missed it, earlier today I put out a call for questions for this week’s mail bag. You can hit up the post below this one to submit a question for me in the comments — but, as always, only paid subscribers can leave a comment. (Yes, also as always, this is to hopefully entice some more of you to pay. And, as always, yes, I’m sorry.)
• Really interesting stuff here on Monday from Kaitlyn McGrath and Eno Sarris of the Athletic, as they take a look at areas where the Jays’ most important young players can improve this season.
I’ll just leave their conclusion about Vladdy here:
The bad news is that Guerrero may need to make a mechanical change to really tap into his power. In an impossibly small sample this spring, though, he’s averaging a 19-degree launch angle on his batted balls (all 12 of them). Wouldn’t it be fun if he’s already found it?
The even better news is that he hits the ball so hard and has such great plate discipline that even if he doesn’t lift the ball more, he should be able to hit near .300 with 25-homer power. That’s why only two players are projected for a better average and better power than Guerrero, and their names are Juan Soto and Mookie Betts.
• Scott Mitchell of TSN takes a deep look at the forgotten man of the Blue Jays’ catching depth chart, Riley Adams — a player who Jays coach John Schneider tells him “probably has the best raw power in our minor-league system.” That’s a new one for me, but sure! Though Adams is an offence-first catcher and Reese McGuire is very much not, I still wonder if Adams’ presence might help determine what they do with McGuire and Alejandro Kirk. If Adams could hold his own in the big leagues — and Mitchell seems to think it’s possible — the need to keep McGuire goes down, I think.
• MLB Pipeline posted their farm system rankings this week, and had the Blue Jays landing at number seven. That’s the same place they were in mid-2020, but still up considerably on where they were a year ago (16th). Adding Austin Martin to the mix will do a thing like that. Now we just wait until Pipeline finally recognizes Alek Manoah as the top prospect in baseball and watch that ranking go through the roof!
• Over at Sportsnet, Shi Davidi looks at how the Jays may setup their rotation behind Hyun Jin Ryu, their obvious opening day starter.
• Mark Shapiro is making the rounds here at the end of camp, apparently, as yet another interesting interview of his has dropped, this time with Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun.
• David Quadrelli of Blue Jays Nation has been taking a look at some of the lesser known prospects in the Jays’ system, and in his most recent piece he profiles C.J. Van Eyk.
• Wacky times in Dunedin, folks. You love to see it.
• How can you not be romantic about corporate owned baseball teams?
• Lastly, a thousand likes on a tweet sending people to a post by the company that no longer employs me??!? Gah, I’m such a rube sometimes.
Hey, but at least I’m not Colorado Rockies management, because this here sucks for a Major League Baseball team worth more than a billion dollars to be doing to its employees.
How was outside?
Yates is a decent loss, but they seem to have a deep group so hopefully they can weather the storm.
Feel sorry for Yates. Must be incredibly mentally frustrating to go through all that rehab and then have to go through more. He was a gamble though and it may be that he never throws a pitch for us. Hope I'm wrong. Pitchers arms are just so fragile.