Notes and links: Can you please feast on the Reds, Blue Jays?
On a solid start from Kevin Gausman, the recurrence of Vlad's groundball issues, Juan Soto, Joey Votto, injury updates, Ben Nicholson-Smith on a brand new Blue Jays Happy Hour, and more!
It’s an off day here on Thursday, and I don’t particularly want to revisit Wednesday night’s game as deeply as a Three Up! post would require, so let’s enjoy some notes and links!
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Notes!
Gausman not quite as ace-like on Wednesday
OK, I suppose I can’t say nothing about last night’s game. I’ve got Kevin Gausman’s picture up there and all. It would be rude to not say anything!
Gausman, of course, was good — though certainly not the best we’ve seen from him.
In his previous outing, against the Rays in Tampa last Friday, he generated 15 whiffs on 58 swings (26%) and added a further 17 called strikes. In total he got 32 called strikes or whiffs on 98 pitches thrown. (33% CSW%)
In this one? Gausman got just seven whiffs on 47 swings (15%), and only added 12 more called strikes. In total, on 85 pitches thrown, he had a CSW rate of just 22%. This is reflected in the fact that he managed only three strikeouts on the night, through a somewhat laborious five innings of work — particularly his 23-pitch first inning, which began with three straight singles to right field, a sac fly, then a relatively weak grounder that managed to sneak through the left side of the Jays' infield.
As we can see from where his rates were heading into this one, via the data at Props.cash — player prop research made easy! — he didn’t quite live up to his own lofty standards. Though he did have a pretty good explanation for it all.
“To be honest, a lot of those first inning hits are just good hitting on their part,” Gausman told reporters, including Shi Davidi of Sportnet, after the game. “I made my pitch and none of them were hit that hard, but just kind of found their holes. I just knew if I stayed there that I wasn't going to have another inning like that. I just felt confident.”
He was right. The Mariners only managed three hits and one run in the innings that followed, plus all four of his strikeouts. And two runs on seven hits in total? With just one walk over five innings? We'll absolutely take it.
What’s up with Vlad?
Plenty of talk about the Jays’ still impotent bats after this one, which is understandable given how frustrating it is to watch a lineup struggle against a soft-tossing lefty like Marco Gonzales (who, it’s worth noting, hasn’t had an ERA above 4.00 since 2017).
Many of the Blue Jays hitters are struggling, obviously, but the one who's rough patch is maybe the most inexplicable — and disturbing — is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vlad is now on a 15 game hitting streak that has seen him accumulate just 16 hits — and none for extra bases since game four of the streak. He has been hit by a pitch as many times (3) as he has extra base hits. He still walking (10.9%), he's still avoiding strikeouts (14.1%), and altogether he has a 141 wRC+ during the stretch, but the power simply has not been there at all. His slash line during the streak has been .296/.406/.389. His ISO is just .093.
For context, last year in Colorado, Raimel Tapia had a .099 ISO and a .372 slugging percentage.
Astute fans have also noticed Vlad's launch angle, which at 4.1° for the 2022 season so far is lower than any other year of his career — including 2020, when worries about him lot being able to lift the ball were at their height.
Thing is, Vlad came about this launch angle in a pretty surprising way.
Well that’s not good! But it certainly corresponds to what’s been happening before our eyes. Vlad has grounded into as many double plays (5) as he has RBIs over the course of the streak.
So what’s going on? Well, reader, I’m not going to pretend to be any kind of expert in swing mechanics, but I did think that this was an interesting response to some of my tweeting about this very subject on Thursday morning.
I'm not sure I entirely agree with the diagnosis here — Vlad isn’t hitting breaking balls all that differently than the way he was in April, at least in terms of launch angle. It's the fastballs that he's been beating into the carpet.
Benjamin’s comment is, however, getting at something that I recognized I had heard about Vladdy before — something Dante Bichette said during a Zoom scrum back in September 2020.
“I've tried to get him away from trying to lift the ball, because when he lifts the ball, if you understand swing path, you've got to catch it out front on the way up. So we back the ball up a little bit and just try to get him on path earlier, so he's more on path with the ball and is more consistent.
“When you lift the ball, sometimes when you're early you'll roll over it and you'll actually make it worse, and you'll actually hit more ground balls. So, just a simple drill — and I made it simple with Vladdy — 'let's do this simple drill, we'll pound it inside, catch the ball deep.' And, you know, it kind of cleared his mind of all the 'hey, I'm trying to get the ball in the air,' and it just made him hit line drives back through the middle in batting practice, and then be the hitter he can be.”
Now, I cringe at the thought of bringing up Dante here, because the typical stuff about firing coaches and him riding in to save the season is already out there too much, and I am loath to add to it. Psychology is funny! But that’s a pretty interesting quote, and something that certainly tracks with the kinds of issues we’ve seen with Vlad of late.
Vlad’s got a 58.3% groundball rate in May after having a 43.3% rate in April. In 2021 his rate was 44.8%. He needs to get back to that, and maybe a sprinkle of Dante’s advice would help.
I guess we have to talk about Juan Soto?
According to the Similarity Scores at Baseball Reference, here are the most similar batters in baseball history to the Washington Nationals' Juan Soto through age 22: Mike Trout, Frank Robinson, Bryce Harper, Miguel Cabrera, Mickey Mantle, Tony Conigliaro, Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Giancarlo Stanton, Ken Griffey Jr.
Soto is now in his age-23 season, doing typical Juan Soto things (minus a little bit of power so far), slashing .250/.393/.471 despite a .255 BABIP, which is good for a 147 wRC+.
Yeah, it would be pretty incredible if the Jays could trade for this guy!
Thing is, these "rumblings" amount to ESPN's Buster Olney citing "rival executives" suggesting that the Nationals "might well be compelled — and motivated — to move Soto this summer." And do ya maybe wonder if what we're seeing here is a tactic from Soto's agent, Scott Boras, to put pressure on the Nats because so far "they have tried and failed to sign him to a whopper contract extension," as Olney puts it? As in... they haven't yet met the asking price?
To be fair, Olney could just be putting two and two together here with nothing nefarious going on in the background, and Soto probably could do without the distraction, so let's not get carried away. But with Soto still two-and-a-half years from free agency his camp doesn't have a whole lot of leverage to get the kind of deal they want right now. And the longer they wait, the more risk there is that an injury or an inexplicable regression could upend his market.
And speaking of getting carried away, that's what it's going to take to get even close to imagining what the kind of package would be required to pry Soto from Washington — a team that is not the A's or the Reds, that has spent plenty in the past (including signing a rare-for-a-Boras-client long-term extension with Stephen Strasburg), and that should be doing whatever it takes to make Soto the centrepiece of their offence for the next decade and a half.
But if you’re the Blue Jays, do you give up the whole-ass farm for the modern day Ted Williams? Yes. Yes, you do. Hell, if you do that you might even end up choosing to extend Soto long-term instead of Guerrero.
I mean… none of this will ever happen, but if it did it might!
Hey, and speaking of… this would be more appropriate to put into the links section, but since we’re talking about a Vlad extension anyway, I should note that Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs wrote about the next young players who should be getting massive long-term extensions, and Vlad most certainly came up.
Eight years and $174 million is the figure he comes up with, noting that "in rest-of-career value, ZiPS has him fourth in baseball among hitters, and none of the top three are gettable."
If I were the Blue Jays I'd sign that deal yesterday.
Domo Arigato Mr. Joe Votto
Good lord, that’s awful. Also, hopefully Joey Votto doesn’t retire anytime soon and I can reuse that heading without anyone noticing!
Unfortunately, the spectre of Votto’s eventual retirement can’t not be on the minds of Jays fans at the moment. His Reds are here to take on the Jays this weekend, meaning he’ll be playing his first series in his hometown since 2017. It’s also potentially his last one ever, as his contract is only guaranteed through 2023 (he has a $20 million club option for 2024 with a $7 million buyout) and there’s only a 50/50 chance that next year’s Jays-Reds series (remember, they’re expanding interleague play!) will be in Toronto.
Votto has been on a rehab assignment in Louisville this weekend, but told reporters — including Ethan Diamandas of SI — on Wednesday that he's "ready to play," and should be here this weekend.
He also was a bit nostalgic about returning to the city, and to face the team he grew up watching. "I was very much a part of downtown Toronto," he said about his younger days. "And I have great memories, great great memories of the city and certainly the Jays."
Of course, he did so while still maintaining his deadpan sense of humour.
As for the Jays specifically, he is one of the few active ballplayers who was around for the World Series years.
“I watched Jays baseball every single day,” he said. “It was a part of my daily routine.”
“The fondest, best stretch of Jays baseball, it was my Jays watching prime. I know the roster like the back of my hand. There's so many great players that came through. It was like Toronto was like the late 90s, early 2000 Yankees before they did their thing with all the superstars,” he said of the World Series era. “It was fabulous. We were so lucky.”
We’ve been lucky to have been able to watch Votto all these years too, albeit from afar.
Hey, and you know, I heard the Jays could be in the market for a left-handed middle-of-the-lineup hitter…
Blue Jays Happy Hour - Ep. 8: Bring Me the Bat of Juan Soto (w/Guest Ben Nicholson-Smith)!!
Speaking of Votto, and Soto, and Vlad, and Gausman, and all things Blue Jays, I had a great conversation on Thursday afternoon with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, who joined me on the latest Blue Jays Happy Hour in the absence of Nick (COVID-IL).
Have a listen above via Apple Podcasts, or find us wherever you catch your podcasts.
Nick and I will be back on Sunday at the conclusion of the Jays-Reds finale. Download the Callin app and come have a listen Sunday afternoon, drop us some Qs in the chat, or give us a call!
Next up, some links!…
Links!
• There were a number of injury updates given by manager Charlie Montoyo and GM Ross Atkins — as revealed by multiple reporters — following Wednesday night’s loss to the Mariners, so we’ll start there.
First up, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who was removed from the game as a precaution in the sixth inning. Montoyo says that Gurriel's hamstring sometimes gets tight, but that he isn't worried. "That happens to him once in a while," he said, adding that the team took him out because sometimes when a player compensates for that kind of tightness he can make the issue worse.
We then have closer Jordan Romano, who was unavailable for the Mariners series due to a gastrointestinal infection that has required antibiotics. Atkins said that Romano is feeling better, and that the issues is moving in a positive direction and expected to be short-term.
Another late-inning reliever on the shelf is Tim Mayza, who the Jays are confident has an issue with his forearm, not his elbow. As Ben Nicholson-Smith explains, the Jays' "belief is it's not structural," and that they're doing additional testing on him out of an "abundance of caution."
Atkins also mentioned Nate Pearson in his scrum, telling reporters that the plan is for the oft-injured flamethrower to come back in "a bulk role" — i.e. as a multi-inning guy out of the bullpen. Pearson is in Dunedin and expected to build up there in extended spring training before going to Triple-A Buffalo at some point. The best version of Pearson certainly could help this team!
• Speaking of Dunedin, and Pearson, and Atkins, and the bullpen, Ben’s latest is a great look at how the Jays’ relief corps. is lowkey not doing so hot at the moment. The lack of swing-and-miss is an issue, and there aren’t many great internal options to help in that regard. Pearson could definitely be a factor once he’s ready. Less likely to be factors are the impressive collection of arms that the Jays are building in the minors — guys like the Dunedin trio of Nick Frasso, Dahian Santos, and Braden Scott, who combined to strike out 24 Tampa Tarpons in a single game last week (one that their GM, Ben reveals, was in attendance for). Trade chips perhaps?
• Atkins spoke about other prospects during his media session on Wednesday, and Mitch Bannon of SI relays some of those quotes in his latest — including ones on Gabriel Moreno (who was hit on the elbow by a pitch in Buffalo’s game here on Thursday, which led to him exiting the game 😬) and Ricky Tiedemann (who has just been promoted to High-A Vancouver, thanks, Atkins says, to his curiosity and drive, and elite stuff).
• Ethan Diamandas has a fresh one for Yahoo Sports in which he looks at the conversations with fellow pitchers, and with Pete Walker, that seem to have turned Yusei Kikuchi’s season around.
• Lastly, that anybody picked someone other than Soto in this poll, except as a joke or a mistake, is literally bonkos.
Like… uh… 17.4% of 3,932 is 684. What the fuck is wrong with you people??!?
Next up: Friday, 7:07 PM ET: Jays vs. Reds (Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Luis Castillo), TV: Sportsnet, Radio: Sportsnet 590
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Three runs in 15 innings whatthefuck.gif
Hate to point this out, but the Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 games....