Oh no, Bo! (and more!)
Thoughts on a potentially deadline-defining injury to Bo Bichette. PLUS: Game one against the Orioles, the arrival of Jordan Hicks, and Today in MLBTR (So Far) on what should be a very busy one!
As anyone who has followed this team all season could attest, it’s not exactly difficult to take the wind out of the sails of this fan base here in this foul year of Our Lord, 2023. But hoo boy, the Baseball Gods really outdid themselves on Monday, presumably in an angry response to the Jays’ bizarre choice to wear their stupid, cursed, can-we-please-just-finally-burn-them-already? red abominations.
Chris Bassitt gave the Jays a beautiful start to a big series against the division-leading Orioles, striking out the first two batters he faced, then getting into an 0-2 count against the third. But then everything unravelled.
First a 1-2 pitch that should have been an inning-ending strike was called a ball by home plate umpire Jeremy Riggs (foreshadowing some awful work from him all night, for both sides)…
…which led to Bassitt labouring through 37 pitches before he was finally able to end the frame, with the Blue Jays down 2-0.
O’s starter Kyle Gibson all but begged Brandon Belt to tie the game up with Bo Bichette on first base in the bottom of the first, sending him two straight middle-middle fastballs at just a hair under 93 mph, but the Jays’ DH somehow swung through both.
If you thought that was more than enough pain to start a game with, I agree! The Baseball Gods, however, were not done with us. Bassitt gave up a pair of runs in the top of the third — cue people convinced the Jays are unable to beat this Orioles team, as though it’s a real thing and not just a weird quirk (like the Jays going 16-3 against the Red Sox last year) — and not long after that came the worst moment of the season.
Or, at least what felt like it might have been the worst moment of the season. And still might be. After slashing a single down the right field line, Bo Bichette made a big turn toward second base, quickly came to a stop, then immediately pulled up, wincing and grabbing his knee.
(Clip via Sportsnet)
It would be pointless to speculate about the nature of the injury, but there’s little to be seen in the clip that would dissuade anyone from fearing for the worst. What we can speculate on is what losing Bo would mean for this team. His value to these Jays can hardly be overstated. He's second on the team to Matt Chapman by both fWAR and rWAR, on pace for five or six wins, depending on which of those metrics you like, and leads the club in wRC+, home runs (tied), plate appearances, and games played. He's rebounded nicely after cooling off a bit in June, and for a team with an offence that's already thin enough to warrant talk of trading for reinforcements, he's virtually irreplaceable.
The Jays are already in a real fight for a playoff spot, and if he’s gone for any length of time that fight obviously becomes a whole lot harder.
Not impossible. Not so pointless that they should pivot, sell, and forget that they’ve been one of the best, if not the best team in the American League for more than two months — even if plenty of fans seem weirdly desperate to declare the season over at every wrong turn. But it will be tough. And in my view demands the opposite: leaning harder into depleting their farm system to find more offence, and figuring the rest out later. They’re too close, and too far down the win curve, to give up a chance to get to the playoffs — where anything can happen — as precious as this.
The team's first update merely told us that he'd been removed from the game with right knee discomfort.
"We're still gathering information to see what we're going to do next," manager John Schneider told reporters following the game. "We'll probably know more tomorrow."
Bo himself told Schneider that he "jammed it a little bit when he was trying to stop."
Presumably there will be an MRI, so don’t exhale just yet. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted on Monday morning that the club should know the extent of the injury better by noon here on deadline day. Whether they’ll immediately let that information be known, or hold it closer to the vest until after the trade frenzy has passed, remains to be seen.
As for the game, it didn’t seem quite so important after all this, but credit the Jays for their resilience. And credit Whit Merrifield, who I’ve perhaps been a little too reluctant to credit this year *COUGH*, for being at the centre of it. Whit homered in the bottom of the eighth to bring the Jays to within two runs, then managed to get a chance again in the ninth — despite Riggs’ best efforts to help out O’s closer Félix Bautista — only to be robbed by a ridiculous catch from left fielder Austin Hays. Ugh.
(Clip via Sportsnet)
The Jays now trail the Orioles by 5.5 games. They lead them in run differential by five runs. Three games in this series remain, with Hyun Jin Ryu taking on Kyle Bradish (and a bunch of tired O’s relievers) a little more than an hour after today’s 6:00 PM ET deadline. Big day upcoming…
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Given the number of big swings that the Blue Jays front office has taken at the trade deadline and in the offseason during the Shapiro-Atkins era, you might have been surprised by how negative some of the sentiments were among Jays fans out there prior to Sunday’s deal for flame-throwing reliever Jordan Hicks. I saw half-serious takes about “probably Chad Green and Addison Barger and then claiming the prices were too high” from multiple places, and just generally got the sense that many folks didn’t believe that this front office has it in them to really go for it. Plenty will probably go back to that feeling if the Jays’ heavy lifting stops with Hicks and doesn’t include a high-end right-handed bat and some genuine Bichette insurance.
I can’t act surprised to find baseball fans walking around with rain clouds surrounding their heads, because… well… I’ve been doing this long enough to know that’s never going to change (no matter how often I point out that a 97-win team loses four of every ten games!). Also because… uh… see above. But it certainly said something about the way this front office is perceived, and some of the things that are still believed to be in its nature long after they’ve proven otherwise. José Berríos was a massive acquisition! Daulton Varsho was a hugely risky move, as it has already proved. Getting Matt Chapman required years and years of club control going the other way. Some of the big contracts they’ve handed out over the years were certainly gambles.
They’re just not as risk-averse as a lot of people seem to want to think. And, apparently, they’re not as bullpen-averse as people want to think either.
That aspect of the Hicks addition is new. The Jays have certainly made some trades to add to their bullpen in recent years, and stuck their necks out a little bit in free agency, but never quite like this.
Going the other way for probably only 20-odd innings of Hicks, a right-hander who averages 101 mph on his fastball and will be going straight into the Jays’ back-of-the-bullpen mix, are a couple of Double-A starters in the form of Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein. Neither is a prospect of the spectacular variety. Kloffenstein, a third-round selection back in 2018, was having an excellent age-22 season for the Fisher Cats before the move, but is repeating the level and was exposed in last year's Rule 5 draft only to go unclaimed. Robberse is a 21-year-old right-hander from the Netherlands who gets raves for his pitching mechanics and "polish," but needs to find a little more velocity if he's going to be more than a back-end starter type. But clearly they have value — especially to a Cardinals team that’s going to be looking for bulk rotation innings next year. They’re also types of guys that the Jays' system has struggled to produce in recent seasons, forcing them to bring in guys like Zach Thompson, Bowden Francis, Casey Lawrence, and Mitch White (who was designated for assignment in order to get Hicks a place on the club’s 40-man roster). Value-wise, and asset-management-wise, it’s no small loss. Even once you take into consideration the fact that both Robberse and Kloffenstein were going to have to end up on the 40-man themselves in the coming months.
It’s also fun as hell. According to Codify, no Blue Jays pitcher has thrown a 102 mph pitch since reliable pitch tracking began in 2008. Hicks has thrown 370 of them in his career. And, more than just the eye=popping velo, Hicks seems to have taken a real step forward this season. He is pitching as well as just about any reliever out there at the moment — certainly as well as any on the trade market.
Now, he doesn't necessarily always know where his pitches are going — his 12.7% walk rate is well above the league average for relievers (9.6%) — but his swing-and-miss stuff is good enough for him to get out of the messes he causes himself. And that's been even more true than usual this season.
This year Hicks has started throwing his slider with a sweeper grip, which has quickly become his most-used secondary offering. He's basically dropped the other, tighter, slider altogether, as well as the changeup, now throwing sinker/sweeper to right-handers and sinker/sweeper/four-seamer to lefties. (The four-seamer is a new wrinkle as well, and while it hasn't been quite as revelatory as the sweeper, lefties have produced an xBA of just .187 and an xSLG og .276 against it while whiffing on the pitch 30% of the time).
It's not a comfortable thing for a batter to have to stand in there against him, let alone to try to figure out which pitches to swing at.
(Clips via @PitchingNinja/MLB Film Room)
Though a number like his 3.67 ERA this season isn't incredibly inspiring, a lot of what's driving that up happened earlier in the season, before he was as comfortable with the sweeper, and before he changed where he stands on the rubber.
Clearly those are real changes that he's made, and we can see much better numbers as a result. Previously a guy who didn't quite miss as many bats as you'd expect from someone who throws so hard, relying on a heavy ground ball rate to get outs, he's seen his strikeout rate jump from 24% last year to 31.2% in this one, and he sports a 1.88 ERA and 1.95 FIP, with zero home runs allowed, since May 8th.
Maybe just as important, his acquisition shows that the Jays are in it, they’re proactive, and they’re ready to bet on themselves. Hopefully we don’t have to find out if a worst case scenario on Bichette changes any of this. Otherwise, you have to believe they’ve still got more cards to play — and with as good a chance as they’ve got, and only two years of Bo and Vlad still assured after this one, that’s the way it should be. A little more offence and this team could become a real force. No, really. Don’t let the AL East and RISP nonsense fool you.
Today in MLBTR…
The rumours are going to be flying fast and furious all day, but we've got to start somewhere. Here's what's being whispered/rumbled/bullshitted about as of late Monday and Tuesday morning (via the always invaluable MLB Trade Rumors, and plenty of other sources as well!)...
• Teoscar Hernández maybe wasn't the perfect fit for a reunion with the Jays prior to Bichette's injury, and he certainly isn't now, with their focus likely to be more on the infield. But they could certainly use more than one bat at this stage anyway, and Teo clearly appears to be the sentimetal choice among those who aren't fun-hating freaks. He's struggled this year, though. June was his only calendar month with a wRC+ above 85 (!!!), and his mark has slumped to 47 here in July. He's crushed lefties however (142 wRC+), so could certainly be a platoon option for the Jays, with the potential to give more against RHP with the right tweaks. Maybe the Jays think they can make him the player he was when here. And MLB Network's Jon Morosi clearly would like to do some radio hits about this, because he tweeted Monday night that the Jays are among teams (along with the Phillies and Giants) who have interest. Seattle, who started a sell-off by moving closer Paul Sewald to Arizona yesterday, should be willing to move the rental. Will they be willing to swallow their pride and get back a whole lot less than they surrendered to the Jays when acquiring him less than a year ago? I, for one, would love to find out.
• The Bichette injury has only intensified the speculation that the Jays are going to be out there looking for a shortstop, and the names most commonly brought up here are Tim Anderson and Paul DeJong. Anderson has had an awful season with the White Sox, though it's really only been against RHP (38 wRC+ versus 128 against LHP), and he seems to have been pulling out of his offensive funk of late (95 wRC+ in July, 136 since the All-Star break), though his .417 post-break BABIP has got to be a little scary for an acquiring team. Still, his is a name that has been bandied about a lot, and he's the kind of lower-cost bounceback type (with an option for next year, albeit one that at $14 million is probably too expensive to pick up) that the Jays have looked for in the past. A second Merrifield deal? They should be so lucky, but it makes some sense to try.
• DeJong, on the other hand, hasn't been linked as much to the Jays, but he checks some boxes: a shortstop, league average bat overall this year but 129 wRC+ vs LHP, couple of club options ($12.5 million and $15 million), and high marks for defence (by OAA, though not as much this year by DRS). Perhaps more importantly, when meeting with reporters after the Hicks trade was made official, Ross Atkins noted that he and Cardinals GM John Mozeliak had explored some "bigger concepts" than just the two-for-one deal that became. He also said that St. Louis was a good fit as a trade partner because the Cards had been looking at the Jays' farm system recently because of the Génesis Cabrera deal. This could work!
• Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets outright that the Jays “are a new suitor calling” on DeJong, so you know that rumour is good as Goold.
• There are other rumblings involving the Cardinals, too. Jon Morosi would clearly like to do a radio hit in St. Louis as well, as he tweets that outfielders Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson are also being discussed. Could be fits, particularly the switch-hitting Carlson (130 wRC+ vs LHP).
• Also worth keeping our eyes on is what's going on with the Jays' rivals. A lot of talk is being dominated as I write this about Justin Verlander, and the Orioles are among the teams with reported interest. Personally, if I were them I'd be wary of giving away too many prospects to bolster a team destined to fade down the stretch (definitely not going to eat those words), but if they're going to make some kind of a move the rotation is the place to do it. Jon Heyman tweets that "there's little sign of progress" betwee the O's and Mets on Verlander, with plenty of other suitors also being rumoured at the moment, including the Astros, Dodgers, Padres, as well as Atlanta. My guess is a 40-year-old with a 21% strikeout rate wouldn't be quite as exciting if he had a different name, but hey, go nuts guys.
• Tigers starters Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Lorenzen have also been linked to the O’s out there, and I really think a Tigers-Orioles trade makes a whole lot more sense somehow. Perhaps it’s the orange.
• On Monday the Jays’ other main rival this year, the Rays, also addressed their rotation, sending top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to the Guardians for Aaron Civale — a pitcher who is quite good, despite not being as good as his 2.94 ERA would suggest. Interesting challenge trade here. Not sure how both teams are somehow going to win it, but that seems the most likely outcome.
• The Yankees, meanwhile, are “open to offers on their impending free agents.” Lol. Lmao.
• Going back to the Mets for a second, outfielder Tommy Pham is a name we've heard connected with the Jays, and if they're going to really push things here and get a pair of bats — which they should! — he makes a bunch of sense. Pending free agent. Strong from both sides of the platoon. Right-handed bat. Good enough to play some centre. Hell, he could end up taking at-bats away from George Springer at this point. (Sad face).
• Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets some wise words to keep in mind as the clock ticks ever-closer to 6 PM ET: "One thing to remember with the Blue Jays: they cast a very wide net. Last deadline, they explored something like 70 relievers. This year, position player search likely goes much wider than the names that are out there publicly. One way or another, Jays need position player help."
• Lastly, another thing to keep in mind here is the human element of all that’s going down today. Former top Jays prospect Travis Snider eloquently wrote about his struggles with this aspect of the business, including when he was traded for Brad Lincoln during the middle of a game (#hugwatch), on Monday morning.
11 years ago, I was pulled off of the field in my hometown in front of all my family and friends, while warming up before the sixth inning. Confused, I jogged off the field and was handed a cell phone at the bottom of the dugout steps.
On the phone was the Blue Jays GM letting me know I had been traded to the Pirates. He thanked me for my efforts and we hung up the phone. I went and hugged my teammates and coaches, and wandered up to the clubhouse swirling with emotions.
I gave 6 hard fought years to the organization, and at the time it felt like they quit on me. I had brothers on that team I had grinded through the minor leagues with, and coaches who helped me bounce back from several demotions. Trainers who helped me over come a laundry list of injuries. Staff and Fans who rallied hard to see the young buck with red cheeks to get another shot in the big smoke.
Despite all of the drama and emotions, I was on a plane at 6am the next morning flying to Chicago. I will never forget walking into that old, grinder clubhouse at Wrigley Field for the first time and seeing new faces and new colors. It was scary, but also exciting. A new chapter had begun.
What I didn’t realize at the time was how hard it was going to be to let go off all of the baggage from those first 6 years with Toronto. The projections, the storylines, the successes, and the failures. I had never lived up to the first round draft pick and #1 prospect hype. Despite making my MLB debut as a 20 year old I battled injuries, poor play, and a lot of demons mentally.
What I realize now, is my identity had been consumed by the “hype”. 100s of articles had been written about my potential, and somewhere along the way I started to read them and believe them. And when they started to really question my abilities, I started to question them too.
I had started to lose that internal DOGG, who fought to overcome so many things on and off the field. My self-worth had become closely tied to my stat line. I was trying to please everyone except myself. I forgot what it felt like to have that unshakable self-confidence.
I know some guys getting traded are going through a similar experience. I’m sure some HS and college athletes are struggling with this as well. Who you are and what you do are to completely different things. Stay true to yourself and enjoy the ride. It’s these experiences that will make you stronger in the end. And if you need help, don’t be afraid to ask. This shit ain’t easy!!
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Gutting moment. Stayed in bed until 3:30pm today in because I couldn't bear to face the world unless/until the jays made a trade or told us Bo wasn't going to miss a lot of time. Strategy paid off.
re: If we are doing so well, why doesn't it feel like it.
My current theory is -- we don't hit enough home runs. They feel good even if they are solos, and it's the feel-good we are missing, even more than the RBIs.