Opening day has arrived
On the state of the Blue Jays, their revamped roster, a new sense of urgency, and the beauty that is the beginning of another season of baseball...
Today begins the eighth season of the Shapiro-Atkins era of Toronto Blue Jays baseball, if you can believe it. That's as many years as J.P. Ricciardi was in charge here, meaning it won't be long before Atkins becomes the longest tenured GM in Jays history not named Pat Gillick.
It's a fact that hardly seems possible. My mind often still thinks of them as "the new guys." Though, if you consider the Anthopoulos years a continuation of the Ricciardi era, and Gord Ash's tenure as a continuation of Gillick's, maybe there's some truth to that. Anthopoulos and Ash, both promoted into the GM's chair from within the organization, took what was already in place and made it their own — one successfully, the other not so much. Shapiro and Atkins, though they had to help steer it into the ground a bit at first, never seemed particularly interested in what came before them. Sure, guys like Tony LaCava, Pete Walker, and John Schneider have roots in the organization going back to Ricciardi's time and continue to serve in major roles for the club, but much of what was in place before seems like it's been burned down. A slow burn, perhaps, but a burn nonetheless.
That process was finally completed this winter, when Rogers' formerly tight purse strings went up in smoke. Not only has ownership committed hundreds of millions of dollars to renovating the Rogers Centre, they've taken payroll to a level few fans ever would have thought possible under this ownership. Here on opening day, the players on the Jays' 26-man roster will combine to make $209 million. That's nearly a $40 million increase on last year's $171 million opening day payroll, which at the time was the largest in franchise history.
We can discuss whether even that much is enough, given the wealth of Rogers, the Toronto market, and the vast size of the club's TV footprint, but what I don't think is up for debate is the fact that this represents one of Shapiro's greatest successes as president and CEO of the club. By the end, Ricciardi was publicly begging for more money. Anthopoulos and Paul Beeston could have only dreamed of this level of support from ownership.
Shapiro seems to have made certain not to have the frosty behind-the-scenes relationship Beeston appeared to have with club chairman Edward Rogers, and it's paid off. Even though the team has spent some money and tasted some success in recent seasons, it's today, after seven years at the helm, that Shapiro has truly ushered in new era of Blue Jays baseball. It's a great thing for the team, for fans, for the city. But it also means that the pressure is on. The time is now. And Shapiro — and, in particular, Atkins — better hope it goes well. They're playing with fire.
⚾⚾ This site is the only way that I make a living. It’s free for all to read, but that’s only possible because of the generosity of paid subscribers. It takes just a couple clicks to upgrade — or to contribute again if at some point along the way your credit card expired! — and by supporting you help keep my work free for everybody else. Win-win! ⚾⚾
Underlining that this is a new era for the club is the fact that the team on the field will look quite different than the one that collapsed against the Mariners in last October's humiliating two-game defeat. Gone from the 2022 squad are Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernández, Ross Stripling, Raimel Tapia, Gabriel Moreno, Julian Merryweather, David Phelps, Jackie Bradley Jr., Bradley Zimmer, and others. And, of course, there was a mid-season change of manager, with John Schneider first taking over for Charlie Montoyo on an interim basis, then being elevated into the seat full time.
New to the club are Chris Bassitt, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier, Daulton Varsho, Erik Swanson, and (eventually) Chad Green.
The result is a roster that's more balanced — offence turned into speed and defence, right-handed hitters replaced with lefties — and, as the Jays will be quick to tell you, just a little bit more focused and detail-oriented.
Whether or not the apparent lack of focus was actually as big a deal internally as they've allowed it to appear in the wake of these changes, it was clear last season that the club was afraid of the perception that their players didn't care enough. After a 13-14 August, with the club on the outside of the wild card race looking in and sitting just two games ahead of an Orioles team that was only a year removed from 110 losses, Shapiro and Atkins did some impromptu media to insist that a lack of seriousness wasn't an issue. Only now do they acknowledge that it might have been, if only to assure fans that the problem has been rectified.
The departures of Gurriel and Hernández — two of la gente del barrio — may not have been part of a concerted effort on this front, but they were certainly conspicuous. What's been less noticed, but is likely a more important aspect of the winter overhaul, is their age. Lourdes and Teoscar will be 29 and 30 respectively this season, and a number of what would have been their at-bats will now be handed to Kiermaier (33), Belt (35), and Whit Merrifield (34).
Shapiro would point to this as also being part of that rebalancing act. He's long spoken of the need for players in all three phases of their careers: young players trying to establish themselves; players in their prime looking to maximize their earnings; and older, more established players who've made their money and simply want to win.
The Jays now do have a pretty impressive collection of such veterans. Belt, Keirmaier, Merrifield, Bassitt, Green, Kevin Gausman, George Springer, Anthony Bass, Adam Cimber, Yimi Garcia, and Hyun Jin Ryu are all in their age-32 season or above. That, of course, means that this is a somewhat old team as well. Health becomes a bigger issue at that point in players' careers, and there’s a real chance that relying so much on these types of players could be this team’s undoing.
That would obviously be bad for a number of reasons, but it would especially be bad if you’re Atkins and Shapiro. They’re heavily invested in the 2023 Blue Jays specifically — maybe more than a lot of people realize.
Last week in a piece for MLB.com, Mike Petriello put the Jays in the second tier of title contenders. It's not "World Series or bust" for them, but — along with the Cardinals and Mariners — "get a little deeper this time around." About these three teams he explains that "there’s a way to have a successful year that doesn’t end with a ring." I think that's mostly true for the Jays, and I think it's an understandably common sentiment. But looking at their roster as they head into year three of their championship window, I think the phrase "win now" is more urgent than simply taking one extra step and flaming out in the Division Series next time.
Bassitt, Gausman, Springer, Garcia, Cimber, and Green aren't getting any younger. Barring extensions, none of the other veterans I mentioned will be here next season. And, speaking of extensions, when you have Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and you're into year eight, and the only players you've managed to extend beyond the point where they were going to reach free agency since Marco Estrada are Randal Grichuk and José Berríos you'd, uh, best be careful when handling lighter fluid.
I'm not saying anyone's job is in jeopardy, but as payroll grows, so do the stakes. So do the expectations from ownership.
Like a lot of the big money deals this front office has handed out, that Berríos one very quickly looks like it has a chance to turn ugly. It also includes an opt-out after 2026, insisted upon by Berríos, according to Sportsnet's Shi David, "in case the franchise abruptly pivots to a rebuild." One real easy way for that to happen would be if they don't lock up at least one of Vlad or Bo before they reach free agency after 2025.
It feels like we're a long way from having to think about such things, but we're also only 162 games away from potentially looking up and seeing a 34-year-old Springer, just two years left each for Vlad and Bo, nothing yet to show for it, and a lot of talent to replace — including Matt Chapman, who ZiPS projects as the club's most valuable position player in 2023.
There will be money coming off the books, there will be some additional help from the farm, but there's a very real chance that this year is the best shot they'll have. The Orioles are coming. Win now.
Fortunately, that’s precisely what this team is built to do.
Over the past two weeks, FanGraphs has been publishing their annual positional rankings, which are based on a 50/50 split between ZiPS and Steamer's projections, as guided by playing estimates from Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. The Jays rank fourth in total projected WAR by this measure. Here's how they grade out compared to the rest of the top 10:
Projections are only projections, but it’s hard not to feel pretty good looking at that if you’re a Jays fan — even if you’d like to see the rankings for the bullpen and the rotation come in just a little bit higher.
It's not so different from what last year's version of this exercise looked like, in fact. On that one they also ranked fourth in WAR, though they took on a different shape to get there. The starting pitching projected a little better a year ago, second base production looked even worse somehow, and the corner outfield spots both ranked in the bottom third. Everything else was basically a wash. And it turned out to be a pretty good year!
A season that should have been even better, yes. A season that certainly should have ended better. And, more to the point, a season that we can finally begin to wipe clear from our memories.
Don't get me wrong, 2022 wasn't entirely bad. It was a summer of baseball. It wasn't all about the awful taste it left in our mouths. But that ending, that downturn from Vlad, those pedestrian four-and-a-half months from Bo, those Berríos and Kikuchi starts, that listless middle part of the year, the manager getting fired, the awful tragedy that befell the first base coach, the pain Springer seemed to constantly be in. It was like they put all the best stuff in the trailer. On the whole, the movie sucked.
And now we get a whole new set of questions, a whole new group of players to rally around — or bemoan, or whatever it is fans choose to do. The outfielders are going to be a lot of fun to watch catching baseballs. Vlad should be better. Bo should be more consistent. Belt should love the difference between the moved-in Rogers Centre fences and his former home ballpark in San Francisco. The bullpen is better. The bullpen depth is better. Berríos and Kikuchi can’t possibly be as bad (can they?). Gausman can’t possibly be as unlucky. Someone, god willing, is going to steal Merrifield’s job. We might see the old Ryu again. We might see Tiedemann, or Barger, or Zulueta at some point.
There is urgency, for sure. There is also talent — and, more importantly than all that “now we’re serious” stuff every team accused of not being serious enough always says, there’s balance.
Best of all, there’s baseball. Enough of the transactions for a bit. Enough of the big picture. The only future we really have to worry about for the time being is the next pitch. The rest, once all the sun-soaked days are over and leaves that aren’t even buds yet begin to turn, will take care of itself.
It’s going to be a fun and fascinating ride. Enjoy the game everyone!
⚾ Be sure to follow me on Twitter // Follow the Batflip on Facebook // Want to support without going through Substack? You could always send cash to stoeten@gmail.com on Paypal or via Interac e-Transfer. I assure you I won’t say no. ⚾