Opening Day mail bag!

On new beginnings, expectations, projections, extensions, discontent, Atkins, Schneider, Vlad, Yariel, Varsho, IKF, Manoah, and more!

⚾ Welcome to the Batflip, a free, independent, reader-supported site providing coverage of Toronto Blue Jays baseball. If you enjoy what you see, please subscribe to have every post emailed to you as soon as it goes up.

Please also consider upgrading to paid. Not only does a paid subscription unlock access to post comments and submit questions when I do a mail bag, it allows me to avoid using a paywall and keeps all my work free for everybody else. ⚾

Logo via MLB/SportsLogos.Net

Opening day! The day that opens the season! The day in which the doors of big league stadiums first open for the year! The day when all the wounds of last season get reopened after the Jays put in a limp performance against a bunch of nobodies at the Trop!

We have fun, don’t we?

Seriously though, baseball is back for another year, and that’s a beautiful thing. It’s been far too long since I’ve paced back-and-forth, arms crossed, two feet from my TV screen. Far too long since I’ve felt like throwing my phone across the room from reading reactions to swing decisions on Twitter. Far too long since I’ve felt hate in my heart for Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider.

It’s a day to celebrate, open the windows, breathe in the spring air, and—apparently—read a 5,000-word mail bag that I somehow managed to crank out in less than 24 hours. And since I have no idea what I’m even trying to say here, and my eyes are blurry after thrusting myself back into my work following a rather lethargic winter, let’s do that…

It’s my first annual opening day mail bag! Thank you so much to everyone who submitted a question, and to everyone who didn’t but still supports what I do. Honestly, I have a feeling it’s going to be a surprisingly fun season—though, after last year, the bar is not exactly high.

Anyway! Go Jays, my apologies to anyone who submitted a question I wasn’t able to get to and, as always, I have not read any of Griff’s answers…

---

It feels a bit like where we were a little over a decade ago, when we'd squint a bit and say, “If everything breaks right, this could be a really good year!” That said, the definition of a really good year is different now. Before it would have been competitive games in August and September and now it is at least make the playoffs and probably win the division. Does that sound about right? Am I way off and far too negative? — Adrian

Hey Adrian, thanks so much for the question and the support. I definitely don’t think you’re way off, or too negative. But I don’t entirely see it the same way.

I know what you mean about those “if everything breaks right” years but, for one, that can be said about just about any season for any team, and now feels more applicable to the crapshoot that is the playoffs. I mean, it felt like nothing broke right for the Jays last year and they still played—albeit briefly—in October.

For two, that to me was more about selling hope in a mostly hopeless situation. This team not only has hope, it has expectation. Sportrac shows Toronto as having the fourth-highest opening day 26-man-roster payroll in baseball, and the eighth-highest overall. That was definitely not the case in the era of one Wild Card spot, and the Yankees more than doubling the Blue Jays’ payroll, with the Red Sox not far behind.

As for those expectations, I don’t think it’s so much about winning the division as it is winning a playoff series. And, yeah, given that the projections make that seem like a tough ask, maybe you’re right.

It really all comes down to Vlad, doesn't it? I mean, obviously the pitching needs to be in the ballpark of what is was last year, and better years from Kirk and Varsho would help, but Vlad really feels like the only one who can really move the needle, especially in the AL East. I saw the over/under for wins on one site as 86.5, and I look at that and think the Vlad of 2021 pushes that to 90.

Maybe it's unfair to put all that on one man's shoulders, but that's what we—and baseball—were sold on him as a prospect, and during that 2021 season. And those abilities no doubt informed decisions about where the team could be in 2024/2025, even if Springer took a step back and as the team moved on from Gurriel and Teo. In short, if Vlad isn't elite isn’t it hard to imagine this team being a true contender? —Will M.

Thank you so much for the great question and the support, man. I definitely hear this kind of stuff out there. And I do understand where it comes from—well, other than the idea that anybody was “sold” anything on Vlad when he was coming up, because no one can blame anybody but themselves if they ignored the reality that there’s no such thing as a can’t-miss prospect. But must say that I don’t agree.

I mean, the Jays won 89 games last year and Vlad was… fine? Probably worse than that? His 118 wRC+ ranked 11th among 25 qualified first baseman, and his 1.0 fWAR ranked 20th. And yet if, like, any two of Springer, Kirk, Varsho, Chapman, or their RISP luck had been better I think that would have been an outstanding team.

Obviously it would be a hell of a lot better if the Vlad of 2021 did show up, and by failing to add to the offence this winter the front office has put more pressure on him to be that guy, but it’s an oversimplification to say that they can’t still be great if he isn’t at his absolute best. It happened in 2022 as well.

How long do you think the rope is for John Schneider if things get off to a rocky start for the Jays? I for one, don’t see how you blame him, given he lacklustre off-season for the team, but by many accounts he is on thin ice. I’m more inclined to point a finger at Atkins for failing to deliver the needed bats for two off seasons in a row. It seems as long as Shapiro as here, Atkins has free rein. Why is that? — Cheryl

Thanks so much for the question and the support, Cheryl! I think you’re totally right that it would be quite weird for Schneider to lose his job if things with this team go south—especially if Atkins is keeping his. And, honestly, I think that a lot of those accounts suggesting that he’s on thin ice aren’t in this market, and are just sort of guessing based on the playoff exit, the underwhelming projections, and the high expectations.

As for Ross, the buck will have to stop with him at some point. But I don’t agree that it’s been two poor winters in a row—the results didn’t come last season, but I think the roster they put together was a really sound one—and I don’t know if I’m so sure that Mark will never get rid of him either. He just hasn’t done it yet. And though a lot of people will disagree, Ross has genuinely earned some grace.

If you’d have told fans five years ago that they’d have been in the playoffs three of four season, averaged 90 wins, etc., etc., they’d have been over the moon. But yes, expectations change and the trajectory now doesn’t feel great. If this year doesn’t go well and Ross is here next opening day, then I might have to agree.

Vlad and Bo are Sons of Major Leaguers. They do not need to sign a deal to set up their families for generations to come. They have no pressure to sign and would probably bet on themselves anyways. The Jays are not signing them on the cheap and they probably would want to see what the market has to offer. Let them go? Trade them? Sign another expensive free agent? Or pony up the most cash of all teams? — Jay M.

Thanks for the question and the support man! Thing is, look, I’ve said that stuff too, and I know the sentiment is out there, but I really don’t think their family wealth is relevant at this point. Maybe that was different when they were still in their pre-arb days and the risk of getting hurt or washing out was higher, but Bo’s next two years are guaranteed and by the time those are complete he’ll have made $36.5 million in his career, and Vlad’s salary this year is $20 million.

And the thing is, there are guys in situations like that who still sign extensions if the money is right. No, Vlad and Bo very likely won’t sign team-friendly deals, but I’d guess that has more to do with knowing what an unbelievable position they’re in by virtue of being set to hit free agency at ages 27 and 28 respectively.

I think all of the options you suggest are still on the table—especially with Vlad, because there’s just no way to put a value on a player coming off a 1.0 fWAR season who appeared to be worth north of $300 million two years ago. There’s nothing to do with him until you see how this year goes.

I’d do everything I could to get Bo to sign long-term as soon as possible though.

I want to talk about “it’s still early.” I feel like most seasons we can say that through June but this season feels different. Can I get a firm deadline on how long it’s reasonable to self soothe with that phrase this year after the season and off season we’ve had? (Hopefully we never have to say that dreaded phrase, but I fear…). — Jamie

Thanks for the question and the support, Jamie. I definitely fear that “it’s early” discourse could rear its ugly head this season too. That’s not because I think the Jays will be some kind of a disaster or anything like that, but because their schedule in April is absolutely brutal. After four at the Trop it’s a trip to Houston and then the Bronx. They then host a tough Seattle team, get a break with an off-day followed by the Rockies. But then there are the Yankees again, and after that they go to San Diego!

It would be a very good outcome if they keep their heads above .500 through that stretch, and if they don’t there’s a good chance people are going to going off the deep end and find themselves in need of reminding of how long the season is, and how wins and losses always ebb and flow.

And that’s kind of the thing. Saying “it’s still early” isn’t about self-soothing, it’s about telling insufferable whiners to calm down and act like they’ve watched a baseball season before. Losses aren’t good and nobody ever would suggest otherwise, but they’re going to happen, and it’s important for one’s sanity—and the sanity of everyone in earshot—to remember that not every bad stretch says to us This Who They Really Are.

I’ll say it in September if I have to.

I'm still a bit puzzled with what the plan is at 3B this year. I was sure there was going to be another move coming during spring but it seems like they really are going with hoping IKF is something he's never been before/hoping Ernie Clement hits well enough to take his job.

While clearly they should have signed Chapman, I understand the potential (though unnecessary) budget constraints. I'm not claiming that Jon Berti is anything special but he's an example of a cheap upgrade they could have made over the current plan.

What gives here? Are the team just much higher on the current options than the consensus or is this an area we could see them trying to address in May/June if the plan falls flat? — Simon F.

Hey Simon, thanks so much for the great question and the support! I don't think I'd say at all that the plan is to go with IKF as their everyday third baseman, it's going to be a mix of guys depending on matchups and who is on the mound for the Jays. I suspect that IKF will get a lot of at-bats there, and I too am bothered by this prospect because of how impossibly light his bat is, but I think it should be pointed out that in about a season's worth of innings at third in his career he's been +19 by DRS and +22 by OAA.

Since 2018 there are 56 players who've logged at least 1,000 innings at third base, and IKF ranks sixth among them by both of those metrics—despite the fact that those are counting stats and he's got the fifth-fewest innings of anyone in the group. Berti, for comparison, is at +7 and +3 in a similar number of innings, though he does offer a little more with the bat.

Now, having a guy like IKF in your back pocket rather than your front one makes for a much better plan if you ask me, and looking at data going that far back doesn't account for any decline he may have had since 2018, but I think you can make a reasonable argument that this can be a truly elite defensive third baseman. I'd probably rather see him more as a late-inning defensive replacement behind a guy who can actually hit, but I suppose you can do it the other way—start IKF and pinch hit for him later on if you're chasing a lead, knowing that plenty of other guys on the roster can shift over to third and play it at least passably. I suspect we'll see a bit of both.

There are various ways to make it work, and that seems to be something this Jays front office truly values when making these kinds of floor-raising moves.

That's not to say that I don't think the Jays misread the market here, or that I'm particularly enthused about this plan. But it is what it is. And it's not like Clement or any number of guys can't take the job if IKF's bat is completely untenable. Or maybe they look to make a move at the trade deadline in July.

I see some renewed rumours of Manoah being dealt, possibly to the Reds for Jonathan India. In principle, I don't mind dealing Alek if Tiedemann is close to ready, but I hate the India trade. Thoughts? — Marshall A.

I saw that story characterized as a “rumour” somewhere too—I forget where. But I looked at the source and it was just… some guy… pivoting off of the work of some other guy who was just spitballing a few last minute trade ideas.

It’s nothing—especially with Alek dealing with a shoulder issue. And even if he was healthy, I agree that it makes no sense.

Also—and this isn’t directed at you Marshall, obviously—I’m the last person to be some sort of a gatekeeper about who can do journalism, because lord knows I had my battles in the old days with ink-stained wretches and J-school grads who looked askew at us upstart bloggers, but this stuff really isn’t rocket science. Give credit, link to articles you cite, dig into things if you’re going to be declarative about them, understand that language matters and be precise with it. I’m sure that’s not always easy for people who need to be pumping out tons of posts per day, but man… this thing seemed to go from “here are some trade ideas” to a post that knew it was that but included the phrase “rumours are swirling” in the subheading, to other places picking up on it as an actual rumour when it’s not. Avoidable stuff!

Here's what I don't get about Spring training. If it's all about ramping up and getting your timing, why does it end with three days off? — BobTV

Thanks for the question, Bob. And for the support! It definitely does feel like a long gap between Monday’s Grapefruit League finale and today’s season-opener, but technically it’s only two off-days. And last year there was only a one-day gap between the Jays’ last spring game in Clearwater and Opening Day in St. Louis.

I’m not sure why it’s two this year, but most teams will have to travel, and I assume that the equipment that came down to Florida on Truck Day back in February will have to be packed up and trucked back. Also, honestly, I think spring is really more about getting pitchers’ arms built up than it is about timing—or if that’s not quite true, guys probably figure that their timing will get back up to speed fairly quickly.

Ok, what is the Blue Jays plan with Yariel Rodríguez? Given the length and money in the contract, I find it surprising they are starting him out in Buffalo and have not talked about him as a rotation piece for this year. Are they just building him up? Is he actually not ready for the big leagues? — Chris B.

Thanks for the support and the question, Chris! Honestly, I wasn't surprised at all that Rodríguez was optioned. He got a late start to spring because of back spasms and only managed to pitch three innings in the Grapefruit League—and that's after he hadn't pitched competitively since the World Baseball Classic last spring, and spending the previous year as a reliever in Japan. The Jays are going to do everything they can to build him up to be a starter long-term, and put it into his contract that he could be optioned to the minors for just this one year, so I fully expected him to start out in Buffalo.

What did surprise me was the fact that it doesn't sound like he'll be down there for long. Cuban reporter Francys Romero reported earlier in the week that he's expected to make just 2-3 starts in Triple-A, and then on Wednesday, John Schneider told reporters that Rodríguez is just going down to be built up, adding, “We want a lot of his innings to be with us.”

Since Rodríguez only threw 175 innings over three seasons in Japan, I suspect he’s not going to be a full-on starter just yet, and that most of those innings will be out of the bullpen, but that’s OK. He’s an exciting guy!

Prediction time! Who is the next current Blue Jay to get a contract extension (if any.... none could be an answer)? My money is on Bo. I feel like it has to be a position player. I could see it being Romano too. My hope is that it's Varsho. — JP

I’m honestly not sure if this was meant as a mail bag question or if it was just a comment on my spring wrap-up post, but thanks for your support JP, and I’m going to answer it anyway.

Varsho’s got three full years yet before free agency and has been Rasmus-esque in terms of his consistency at the plate, so I don’t really get that one. For me, even though health has been a major issue thanks largely to a bunch of freak injuries, I think it’s Danny Jansen.

Okay Andrew here we go! My temperature is lukewarm I'm afraid to say. I've got a ton of questions so I'll make this easy for you to keep your answers short:

1. Ernie Clement is the new Jose Bautista (not the big power guy, but the diamond in the rough context)—agree or disagree?

2. If Romano and Swanson have serious arm issues, we are in deep trouble—agree or disagree?

3. Bo is not going to sign an extension or return as a free agent so we've only got two years left of him—agree or disagree?

4. IKF takes over from Varsho as the fans target of discontent—agree or disagree?

5. Why is it that having IKF or Varsho catch from time to time is seemingly not an option? It's almost guaranteed that Jansen will get injured (again) during the season. It gives us so much flexibility regardless of how good they are defensively. I don't get it? — OzRob

Thanks so much for the questions and the support, Rob! Here we go…

1. I think Clement is really interesting if his newfound (mild) power can really hold, because he does just about everything else very well. But you're putting him in the same sentence as a guy on the Level of Excellence here. Disagree.

2. Those are very good and important relievers, but there are some excellent arms still healthy, some very interesting arms in the system, and it's probably easier to fix a bullpen on the fly than anything else. Disagree.

3. If he's definitely not going to sign an extension or return as a free agent—which I don't think is true; these things are fluid—then we may only have one year left of him. Disagree.

4. I think it's a very different thing to have a bad season as a guy who was traded for one of the best prospects in baseball and a long-time fan favourite and to be a bad player who makes a little too much money. I think that if IKF is brutal he won't play enough to be a lightning rod. Disagree.

5. I know catching is a hard job, with increased injury risk, and would require quite a lot of work for little payoff—because you really don't want those guys behind the plate more than a handful of times at most, I don't think. And catcher defence is so important that even a few games can have a genuinely negative effect. But yeah... I'm with you on this one. Ruling out the option just seems wasteful to me.

Though, I will say, that there’s some sense I didn’t see to how the Jays have handled this.

On Thursday afternoon they announced that Yosver Zulueta has been designated for assignment to free up the 40-man spot needed for Brian Serven. That move may sound like it is exactly making my point, but I think there’s a chance Zulueta doesn’t get claimed and ends up off the 40-man and back in Buffalo.

Yes, he can be optioned, but he’d have to be claimed and placed on a team’s big league roster first. Teams are pretty full-up at this point in the season, and someone would have to really like Zulueta to give him a 40-man spot at someone else’s expense.

An intriguing arm that seemed pretty exciting as recently as a year ago, Zulueta has walked 74 batters in 107 2/3 innings since moving up to High-A in mid-2022. Teams simply may not believe he’s a plausible depth option this year—he certainly wasn’t going to be very high up on the Jays’ chat—and the Jays probably have a sense of the interest in him based on an offseason’s worth of trade talks. If there had been much interest, they probably could have worked out a deal with someone. So maybe this isn’t such a problem after all. (UPDATE: Lol. Lmao.)

Defence might not be as sexy as a homer, but pitching and defence can win. A lot of balls died at the fence last year, especially oppo. Maintain the pitching and defence and improve the offensive strategy and the Jays are a playoff team. — Jay M.

As long as it doesn’t feel like a game becomes unwinnable every time they go down a run or two, I’m entirely fine with this!

It’s no secret that the core of young position players are scheduled to reach free agency in the next few years, and with the exception of Bo—who seems determined to test the market, and would be bonkers not to—there are reasons why one side or both might be hesitant to sign a long-term contract at this juncture.

For Jansen it’s questions about his ability to stay on the field and whether/to what extent Kirk can stick as a full-time catcher.

Vlad wouldn’t want to be paid like a guy coming off a 1.0 fWAR season, and the team would want more information about a guy with Vlad’s talent whose fWAR has gone from 6.3 to 2.8 to 1.0 over the last three seasons.

The team might want to see how much of what Biggio contributes can be provided by pre-arb guys like Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Orelvis Martinez, etc.

And as for guys who are a little further out, Varsho’s offensive ceiling is still unclear, and it seems fair to wonder how a guy with Kirk’s body will age, especially at catcher.

Plus. there’s the bigger-picture question of whether (and to what extent) the Jays would even want to pay to keep together a core that has had very real regular-= season success, but hasn’t been able to win a playoff game.

So I guess I have three related questions: am I missing anything about the possibility of extensions for upcoming free agents? What should we be looking at in terms of individual and team performance as indicators that extensions will be more (or less) likely? And if you had to guess, will the Jays sign extensions with any of the upcoming free agents any time soon? — simon

Thanks so much for the support and the great question, Simon! I really don’t think you’re missing anything here—though I don’t think the core’s inability to win a playoff game so far would, or should, ever be part of the discussion with respect to extensions.

I also think, as I mentioned above, that it’s maybe not so cut and dried as people think that Bo will definitely test the market. But you’re right that he has plenty of incentive to do so and that surely it will be incredibly expensive for the Jays to get him to forgo it.

And, well, OK, you might also be missing the whole "darkest timeline" thing, which is the not-exactly-far-fetched possibility that, if 2024 goes poorly, the team chooses a hard pivot after this season. I mean, if it doesn't work this year, and it hasn't worked the past three years, how likely is it to get better next year with Springer at 35, Gausman at 34, Bassitt at 36, and Berríos at 31? Those guys will have varying degrees of trade value, and if the team simply can't get Bo or Vlad to extend with them (or Juan Soto signed) there will be a case—maybe not a business one, and that might make this untenable for Rogers—to cash in on everybody they can and start thinking about the Nimmala era. (Or, more likely, about who will be the best GM to guide the team into the Nimmala era).

With that in mind, it maybe doesn't make a ton of sense to extend guys who aren't Vlad, Bo, or anyone you might want to keep around if the team does a bit of a reset—like the way they did with Justin Smoak all those years ago. That could mean Danny Jansen, who I mentioned above, or maybe even Yusei Kikuchi.

Obviously I hope to hell this scenario is not where this thing is going, but the longer it goes without Bo or Vlad's name on an extension, the harder it is to ignore that the possibility is on the table.

Hey Stoeten, I accidentally got into soccer this offseason, so I've been retroactively fondly remembering DJF / BAD podcasts that were more soccer than Jays. Ah. Bold Euros predictions?

Anyway, I like to think of myself as a fairly even-keeled fan who works hard to keep his inner garbage clown at bay at all times. I've broadly understood the moves the “new” management has done, and the team has been perfectly cromulent to watch. Between the rather dubious Pitching Change to end the season last year, and the offseason this year, how much rope are you willing to give management in 2024? You'll let us know when we can unleash our inner garbage clowns, right? — CrazyCatTim

Thanks so much for the question and the support, Tim! I’m really looking forward to the Euros, not just because the Dutch are, I think, a genuine dark horse if everyone’s healthy and Ronald Koeman can stay out of his own way, but because it might be a welcome respite from whatever might be going on with the Blue Jays’ season in June and July. I hate to say it, but this might finally be England’s year. (Though I’m sure they’ll find a way to bottle it and France will win. Germany at home will also be a problem—man, Jamal Musiala looked dangerous on Tuesday.)

As for the baseball stuff, I honestly think people are a bit crazy for being so bent out of shape by the pitching change. Berríos was holding his own, but he pitched in four frames and allowed a baserunner in each. It's not like he was absolutely rolling, and I think in their anger and bewilderment—which was also odd, because we've seen teams like the Rays make pitching changes like that in playoff games for years now—they seem to have forgotten that. And forgotten that Kikuchi had as good a second half as Berríos, and that there was logic to the matchups, and that Kikuchi did his job but simply got BABIP'd.

Too cute by half? Yes. But way too much has been made of that change. How about you score a damn run?

Anyway, I think Ross is getting this year regardless, so I'm going to try not to sweat it too much. Unleash that garbage clown when they're mathematically eliminated.

Shohei Ohtani—what do you make of this? The Dodgers look inept for having this translator on the payroll without doing due diligence about his employment record and his education. Do you believe Ohtani that he, his accountant, and his agent were unaware of several $500K transfers? Someone with that earning power surely has an investment councillor who would be aware of these transactions. To me this is highly dubious and I hope MLB doesn’t just sweep this under the rug because it is Ohtani. — Paul

Like everybody else, I think the whole thing seems fishy. But I do think we sometimes aren’t appreciating how integral interpreters are to the lives guys who are trying to navigate a new country and culture while simultaneously doing an incredibly intense job. Their duties are much broader than just translating words.

That said, while I’ve never attempted to wire transfer $500,000 before (believe it or not), my understanding is that there are a lot of hoops to jump through that would make it very difficult for someone to do that in someone else’s name. And I still don’t understand how a bookie could let a guy on an $85,000 salary get into him for $4.5 million.

I’m sure a lot of this stuff will eventually come out—and I’m just as sure that MLB will then do everything in its power to sweep it under the rug.

Hi Stoeten, I am not excited for Blue Jays baseball yet. Can you get me hyped up about the 2024 Jays? — Minor Leaguer

Thanks for the question and the support man! I don’t know if this is going to make anybody run-through-a-brick-wall hyped, but I know that the Jays’ roster doesn’t feel to many people like it’s good enough. It’s tough to see predictions that have them fourth in the AL East, or projections putting them at just 49% to make the playoffs—which is the case at FanGraphs here on Opening Day.

Well, what if I told you that there was a little team last season that people thought wasn’t good enough, that had even worse odds of making the playoffs (33.6%) on September 15th, and they still made it to the dance!

THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES! PLAYOFFS, BABY! LET’S GOOOOO!

PLAYOFFS!!!!!1!!

HAPPY HALLOWEEN, EVERYBODY!

---

---

Twitter ⚾ Facebook⚾ Bluesky ⚾ Podcast

⚾ Want to support without going through Substack? You could always send cash to stoeten@gmail.com on Paypal or via Interac e-Transfer. I assure you I won’t say no. ⚾