Reflections on the end of the first half, the draft, the "return to Canada" proposal, and more!
It’s the all-star break! And also the draft! And also the Jays might — possibly, perhaps — be on their way home! Which is to say, there’s a whole lot going on. So let’s talk about it.
But first, please indulge me while I attempt to make a living. Because if you’ve been sent here by a friend, or are an existing subscriber who would like to move to a paid membership so you can comment, ask questions the next time I open up the ol’ mail bag, or just plain old support what I do, click below to upgrade or become a subscriber. You’ll be helping keep all posts free for everyone, and I will be eternally grateful, too!
We’ll start, as usual, with an ostensible catch-up on the last games of the first half of the Jays’ season — though really I’m mostly using it as an excuse this time to take the long view on a whole bunch of Jays players as the team reaches the break at 45-42 with all still to play for (and several needs still to be addressed). Here’s three up, three down…
Friday (Jays 1 - Rays 7)
▲ Alek Manoah
You know it was a tough one for the Jays when I’m giving an up arrow to a starter who couldn’t even get through the fourth inning. Manoah’s command certainly wasn’t good — he hit two batters, walked three, and spoke after the game about how he was “missing the plate by way too much” and needs to get his mechanics back in order — but the stuff was obviously there, as he fanned nine Rays in just 3 2/3 innings and allowed just three hits. If he can keep doing that, then I think a little better command, a little better luck, and a little better defence will go a long way. An encouraging performance in a weird way. Especially when you consider that the Zunino hit-by-pitch call to start the third really seemed — at least in my biased opinion — to have been the wrong one.
▲ Tayler Saucedo
I thought the Jays made an error a couple weeks ago when they inexplicably handed Saucedo his third MLB appearance with runners on the corners with one out in the eighth inning of a 5-2 game against the Orioles a couple weeks back. He was not the right guy to have asked to clean up Tyler Chatwood’s mess at that point, but that doesn’t mean he’s not something of an interesting guy who could potentially move his way up in the pecking order.
A 21st-rounder from way back in 2015, Saucedo was a fairly underwhelming starter as he made his way through the Jays’ minor league system. In 2018, his last year before a move to the bullpen, Saucedo struck out just 104 in 147 2/3 innings between Dunedin and New Hampshire, struggling to a 5.17 ERA over 11 starts in his first taste of Double-A. Steve Givarz of 2080 Baseball saw him in April of that year, noting in a video posted to the site that his fastball sat at 89-90, topping out at 91. A report from the blog Jays From The Couch in July 2019, suggested he was still throwing in that range despite having by then been moved to the bullpen. Maybe that info wasn’t up-to-date, but either way, at some point along the way he’s gained a bunch of velocity.
Here in 2021, his sinker, which is the primary fastball he uses, is averaging 94.0 mph. He’s been able to run it up to 95.5. His slider is up a similar amount. And the strikeout numbers have followed. When with Buffalo in 2019, Saucedo's swinging strike rate was 10.1%, which was completely in line with the rates he'd been producing since 2016. During his stint in Buffalo this season the number was 20.8%. In the majors it has been 14.7%. This season so far he's struck out 35% of the Triple-A batters he's faced, and 25.9% of the major leaguers; the highest rate he was able to manage in any of his previous minor league stints was just 20.4%.
In short: We are currently seeing the best version of Tayler Saucedo there’s ever been — and by a pretty wide margin.
It would be easy to look at his rather humble pedigree and assume that he probably won’t be able to continue successfully getting big leaguers out, but he’s a different guy now. I’m not saying he’s destined for greatness, or anything like that. In fact, his left-handedness, and the reemergence of Tim Mayza as a legit late-inning option, may mean he gets squeezed out of a job when fellow lefty Ryan Borucki returns. But I think there’s a real chance he could end up useful, or at least hold down a spot on the 40-man for a while.
Anyway, Saucedo didn’t allow a hit and gave up just one walk over 1 1/3 innings of work in this one while striking out two. He was a bright spot.
▲ Rafael Dolis
I don’t want to be too effusive in my praise of Dolis, who nobody enjoys watching pitch, and who Jays fans certainly don’t trust at this point. But he did a nice job mopping up Jacob Barnes’ mess and preventing yet another run from scoring, while picking up two strikeouts and retiring all three batters he faced. He wasn’t exactly filling up the strike zone, and I’m certainly not pushing for him to see higher leverage spots than this just yet, but he did his job well. More than that, though, he gave Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler a chance to change the narrative of what has been a tough 2021 season for him so far.
Part of the reason Dolis was so bad prior to his stint on the injured list was the fact that he’d been pitching through an issue with the index and middle fingers on his pitching hand — which we sort of knew, but that I don’t think gets talked about nearly enough.
“I respect him that he tried to pitch through that, but then it just got so bad,” Tabler remarked at one point. “He was bouncing balls, could throw his splitter or his slider over for strikes.”
“Well just think about it, if you've got an injured index finger and middle finger and you're trying to throw a split-finger fastball. I mean, those are the two fingers that are resting on the baseball,” Martinez later explained. “If you don't have any feeling, I can't imagine how you could throw anything close to being effective with that splitter.”
As he became an object of fan outrage in May and June, it seems likely to me that Dolis was actually out there giving everything he could to keep the bullpen situation from getting worse. One wonders if the same could be said for Tyler Chatwood. And one hopes that with renewed health they can both get back to their best in a hurry — mostly just for the Jays’ sake, but also to give the silly “DFA these guys immediately” brigade something to chew on.
▼ Teoscar Hernández
It’s maybe unfair to single Hernández out with the first down arrow here, because there were certainly other reasons that the Jays lost this game, but his casualness with a Brandon Lowe flyball in the sixth, which allowed both Rays runners to tag up and take an extra base with the game still very much in the balance at 3-1, was too perfect an example of the little things that often separate these teams. The Jays are too prone to lapses like that, and the Rays are too good at taking advantage of them.
Teoscar has come a long way as a fielder, but there are clearly still improvements that need to be made. His deficiencies come especially into focus when his bat isn't going, and a dirty little secret of this all-star season of his is that he has by no means proven that 2020 Teoscar was for real.
His wRC+ by month this season:
April: 70
May: 161
June: 95
July: 105
He's such a great personality that you hate to bet against him, but I'm not yet convinced he isn't going to become a trade candidate at some point.
▼ Reese McGuire
McGuire wasn’t the sole reason the Jays lost in this one either, but he cost Alek Manoah at least a couple of potentially important strikes, and had a passed ball to boot. It wasn’t his finest performance, and for a guy who is 5 for his last 35 and has never shown an ability to hit better than your average waiver wire journeyman, that’s a problem. Especially considering Alejandro Kirk is healthy again.
Sure, handing a huge chunk of the responsibility for handling the pitching staff to Kirk is not without its own concerns, and exposing McGuire to waivers (as the Jays would have to do if they attempt to send him to the minors) seems on the surface like it would make it difficult for them to change course if Kirk’s work with the pitching staff underwhelmed. But would they be much worse off going back to Danny Jansen, or even trying Juan Graterol? I honestly don’t think so.
You’ve gotta commend Reese for being there and playing well when Jansen and Kirk went down, but we’re coming to the end of the line here.
▼ Anthony Castro and Jacob Barnes
It happens, but it wasn’t a great day for either of these relievers. Guys like this, and Joel Payamps, can be useful, for sure. But perhaps this was a healthy reminder that being mad that these guys don’t get used more is a bit silly.
Saturday (Jays 2 - Rays 5)
Ugh.
▲ Marcus Semien
With a two-run shot and a walk, it was another good day at the plate for the Jays' all-star second baseman. He's cooled a bit since his white hot May, but has still been well above average at the plate and rock solid in the field since then. Pay him.
▲ Sort of getting to Ryan Yarbrough
Sure, the Jays only scored a pair — both via Semien’s homer — but they managed five hits and a pair of walks against their weird nemesis, getting him out of the ballgame after five innings. They really should have done more damage, particularly in the first inning, which frustratingly ended when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was picked off at first base, but they’ve definitely had worse showings against Yarbrough.
▲ Trevor Richards
The former Rays starter got a pair of big outs with a couple runners on in relief of Anthony Kay in the fifth, then struck out the side in the sixth. Four strikeouts over 1 2/3 innings with no hits or walks? You love to see it.
▼ Ross Stripling
Stripling’s transformation into a mid-rotation starter, or better, has been a godsend this year, but this just wasn’t his day. He struck out five in just 3 2/3 innings, walked only two, and allowed just four hits. Unfortunately, three of those hits went over the fence. Not ideal!
▼ Randal Grichuk
If you thought Teoscar's month-by-month wRC+ numbers were worrying, check out Grichuk's.
April: 125
May: 116
June: 76
July: 43
He did manage to reach on an error in this one, but he's earned this down arrow because he probably cost the Jays a run with the way he played Randy Arozarena's blooper in the eighth, because on Friday he came up empty twice with runners in scoring position and two outs, and because of his overall struggles since the start of June. Over 135 plate appearances in June and July combined he has just a 2.2% walk rate (he walked 7.5% of the time in April) and a wRC+ of just 69. He’s far from the reason they lost this one, but still… not nice.
▼ The Trop
There were certainly other factors at play in the loss here, but I’m going to give a big ol’ down arrow to the Rays’ stupid, shitty stadium that almost always seems to bring out the worst in the Jays. Fortunately they were able to at least go out on a winning note on Sunday.
Sunday (Jays 3 - Rays 1)
Now this is more like it! Here’s six up…
▲ Robbie Ray
We have to start with the Jays’ biggest all-star snub, as Ray was once again pretty damn close to masterful. He pitched seven innings of one-hit ball, walking just one, while striking out 11. It took him 105 pitches to get there, but still! He continues to be the very best version of himself, issuing 2.24 walks per nine (career average: 4.07) while striking out 11.62 per nine (career average: 11.19). He lowered his ERA to 3.13 for the season. And though his 3.94 FIP is a little high due to his susceptibility to the long ball, which gives him a somewhat meagre 1.5 fWAR, RA9 and the Baseball Reference version of the metric are much kinder (he ranks 16th among qualified starters by the former, ninth by the latter) and, I think, much more reflective of the value he's provided the Jays this year. He has absolutely shoved.
What will Ray’s next contract look like? It’s a question Jays fans are already starting to wonder about. Presumably the Jays, too.
I think if you're Ray you could certainly try to make the case for something similar to the Hyun Jin Ryu contract, given that Ray will be three years younger, albeit coming off a season which surely won't be as good as Ryu's 2019 (in which he finished second in NL Cy Young voting and led MLB with an ERA+ of 179; Ray's ERA+ currently sits at 142). Another comp, however, could be someone like Jake Odorizzi, who was the same age as Ray in 2019, when he similarly got his walks down and strikeouts up, looking like he'd finally figured something out (128 ERA+) after a couple of mediocre seasons, but ended up taking the Twins' qualifying offer because the market for his services was merely lukewarm.
The qualifying offer wasn’t a factor for Ryu, of course, because he was not eligible to receive one from the Dodgers after having already been given a QO the previous winter. Tying one to Ray could potentially work out similarly to Odorizzi, given that there surely exists some real uncertainty about the way his career went off the rails a bit over the three years following his very strong 2017. Do other teams risk the possibility that he goes back to being merely average? Do they fear what would happen if Ray was to part ways with Jays pitching coach Pete Walker, with whom he seems to have an excellent working relationship?
If I’m the Jays maybe that’s the route I take. Prepare to make him a qualifying offer and see where it goes from there. (And maybe spend more energy on an extension with the second baseman!)
▲ Danny Jansen
Going 1-for-3 with a home run and a walk is a good day at the office for anybody, but for Jansen it moved his wRC+ for the season from 48 to 55. That second number is, of course, still rather putrid, but if he could start giving the team anything with the bat it would be a huge plus. As mentioned above, the Reese McGuire era seems to be winding itself down, and as much as I think it’s probably fine to hand most of the catching duties to Alejandro Kirk at this point, a usable Jansen would definitely help ease that transition.
▲ Santiago Espinal
It’s nice that Cavan Biggio is a lefty bat who additionally gives pitchers another look because of his elite ability to recognize balls from strikes. He’s also… uh… well… here are his month-by-month wRC+ numbers this season:
April: 79
May: 73
June: 158
July: 17
Why do I bring this up? Because Santiago Espinal went 3-for-4 with an RBI as the Jays’ third baseman on Sunday, and can actually field the position. I don’t know if he’s the answer at third base, but he’s definitely earned more playing time there. Over 120 PA so far this season, Espinal is slashing .321/.367/.420 (117 wRC+).
Granted, he's mostly just hitting singles, and his average exit velocity of 83.8 mph ranks in the bottom ten among 369 batters with at least 100 plate appearances this year, so I don't want to overstate his value here. But he's cut down his strikeout rate significantly, and is an actual above average defender. Biggio, meanwhile, has been the worst third base defender in baseball by UZR (min. 100 PA), and is in the bottom five by DRS (min. 100 PA) and Outs Above Average (min. 100 attempts). Ride the hot bat and let Espinal play while you try to work out a trade for someone better.
▲ Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
A two walk day for Gurriel??!!?
▲ Tim Mayza
It took Mayza just eight innings to get through a clean eighth inning in this one. Since the start of June, over 14 2/3 innings he's allowed just nine hits, one walk, three runs (two earned; 1.23 ERA), and has struck out 14. He's allowed runs in only three of 18 outings, and has retired every batter he's faced in 10 of those 18. Reliable relievers are a nice thing to have, it turns out.
▲ Getting Jordan Romano through the first half
Romano did an outstanding job over the first half of the season in becoming the Blue Jays' most important reliever — and, seemingly, often their only decent one. He didn't make it easy on himself in this one, surrendering a home run to Brandon Lowe with one out in the ninth, which pulled the Rays to within two, then allowing a two-out single to Yandy Díaz. That brought Austin Meadows to the plate as the potential tying run, but Romano managed to get him to pop one up.
That’s been the story of Romano’s last few weeks, really. He allowed a run for the second time in three games on Sunday, and at least one hit for the ninth time in 10 games. He hasn't quite been able to put up zeroes the way he was prior to mid-June, when MLB's crackdown on sticky stuff really kicked in and sapped some of his ability to generate spin — particularly on his slider.
He’s still finding ways to be effective, but maybe don’t be surprised if the second half doesn’t go quite as well for him as the first did.
It’s coming home? ⚾
On Tuesday afternoon, in a clear attempt to put some public pressure on the federal government, the Blue Jays announced some of the details of the proposal they have made to the feds that would see them return home to play at the Rogers Centre beginning on July 30.
Here is the text of their press release:
The Blue Jays are currently awaiting a decision by the federal government on a proposal that would allow the team to return to Toronto on July 30. We remain hopeful to be back home this summer, playing in front of Blue Jays fans at Rogers Centre for the first time in nearly two years and being part of our community’s recovery from the pandemic.
Our proposal to the federal government is based on the following:
MLB’s health and safety protocols and high league-wide vaccination rates
Over the past two seasons, the league’s COVID-19 protocols have been extremely effective and in the rare event that a positive case has occurred, the league has demonstrated the ability to contain the virus, including no instances of on-field transmission.
More than 200,000 COVID-19 monitoring tests have been conducted since the start of the 2021 season, resulting in a 0.03% positivity rate.
MLB has extremely high vaccination rates, with more than 85% of players and personnel across the league being fully vaccinated.
Significant efforts have been made by the league and teams to provide education, access, and incentives to increase vaccination rates.
Additional measures that address Canada’s border restrictions
Fully vaccinated individuals on the home and visiting teams will follow the same rules to enter Canada as the general public, which is showing proof of a negative COVID-19 test with no quarantine requirement; fully vaccinated individuals will also undergo weekly testing.
Unvaccinated and partially vaccinated individuals on the home and visiting teams will adhere to a modified quarantine for their first 14 days in Canada. They will be permitted to leave their residence only to participate in baseball activities at Rogers Centre.
Perhaps I’m guilty of letting my guard down because of pandemic fatigue here when I say this, but this seems entirely fine. The threat posed by unvaccinated players who are regularly being tested and only allowed out of quarantine to play with their vaccinated or also-quarantining teammates seems very small.
It’s not zero. There could be contact between these unvaccinated players and hotel employees, cab drivers, or ballpark staff that — even if those people are themselves vaccinated — could pass on an infection. It also stands to reason that anyone dim enough to not get a vaccine is probably also dim enough to take the protocols less seriously than they should. But, as the Jays rightly point out, MLB has been pretty successful with this stuff. Given the league’s testing regime, I’d wager the risk to those frontline employees is just as great, or greater, when interacting with just about anybody else. And while I’d certainly prefer it if we weren’t letting unvaccinated individuals into the country, the reality is that’s been happening the whole time — truckers, for example, have been exempt from testing and quarantine when crossing the border.
Playing a baseball game isn’t the same as delivering essential goods, obviously, but given the small number of unvaccinated players we’re talking about here, the testing, the quarantine, and the huge and growing number of Canadians who’ve been vaccinated, this seems to me — admittedly, a layman who definitely wants to see a baseball game this summer — like something the government should be able to work with. Especially after exceptions have already been made for the NHL.
Housekeeping
Just wanted to take a moment here and give everyone a quick reminder that I’ve got a mail bag piece that will be coming up later on this week. Plenty of great questions have already been submitted, but I could use even more. So head over to this post and leave me your question in the comments.
But don’t forget that, as always, mail bag submissions are open to paid subscribers only.
If you’d like to sign up or upgrade to a paid membership — which not only gives you the ability to comment and leave mail bag question, but also helps support everything I do — please sign up below! Thank you!!
Getting drafty in here
MLB’s annual amateur draft began back on Sunday night, which was nearly as dumb a time to do it as it was to have the league’s annual Futures Game go opposite the Euro 2021 final. (Read: I sure as hell wasn’t sitting at home watching it by that point in the day.)
But no matter. We’ll have plenty of time to get to know the kids the Jays just added (contracts pending) to what is already a very good system. Here, however, are some first impressions.
Round one (pick 19): Gunnar Hoglund - RHP, Mississippi
Get your Jonas Hoglund jokes out of the way, Leafs fans. Name aside, there’s a lot to like about this pick. The Jays didn’t have a second rounder thanks to the George Springer signing, and therefore didn’t have as big a bonus pool available to them as they maybe would have liked, so with their first selection they did something quite interesting. Hoglund had Tommy John surgery in May, making this a fairly risky pick. However, according to Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs in a chat on Sunday, had he not required the surgery he likely would have gone in the six through 10 range. In other words, the Jays here have assumed some risk for the chance of getting a much bigger talent than their 19th overall selection normally would have allowed.
It’s a similar thing to what the previous Jays regime did when selecting Jeff Hoffman back in 2014. While Hoffman’s career certainly hasn’t followed the trajectory that anyone would have liked, he did prove a useful trade chip for the Jays, and also signed for slot value when he was drafted. That last bit is important, because the idea here again seems to be for the Jays to get Hoglund signed at slot or close to it — if so that opens their bonus pool up a little to help gets some tougher signs among their later picks, and maybe mitigates against the loss of the second-rounder.
That plus near top-of-the-draft talent at pick 19? Sounds good to me!
So what is Hoglund like as a pitcher? He’s 6’4, 21 years old, currently sits at 92-95 with his fastball while also throwing a slider, curve, and changeup. He reportedly has polished command, as evidenced by the fact that he managed to limit walks to just 17 over 62 2/3 innings for Ole Miss this season. He also struck out 96 over that span.
“I love this for Toronto,” said Goldstein’s draft coverage partner at FanGraphs, Eric Longenhagen, in their day one wrap-up piece. “I think Hoglund’s TJ rehab presents his parent club the opportunity to rework his body and maybe coax more velo out of him, the same way the Dodgers did with Walker Buehler. Hoglund’s slider command is incredible. He was carving up the SEC sitting 80-92 — imagine him parked in the mid-90s.”
Blue Jays amateur scouting director Shane Farrell seems to concur, telling reporters after the selection: “He’s a strong, physical kid with above-average control and command of his fastball and an above-average slider as well. The changeup is a pitch that was good for him in high school, and we saw a little bit less of it at the college level, but I’m sure that will develop more as a pro. We saw a tick up in fastball velocity this year, combining that with an upper-level ability to command the ball on both sides of the plate and command the slider off the fastball. That’s what really drove us to make this selection.”
Other highlights
• Round three (Pick 91): Ricky Tiedemann - LHP, Golden West College
When he spoke to reporters late last week, prior to the draft, Farrell spoke about needing to cast a wide net. “I think it's just picking a little bit deeper. Just really being accepting to all positions on the field, all different demographics — high school, junior college, college,” he said. “And even at the college ranks, if we're being open minded to smaller school, mid-major type players, rather than being married or tied to major power five conferences like the SEC or the ACC.”
The Jays did exactly that with this pick, taking the 18-year-old Tiedmann out of junior college.
“Tiedemann drew considerable interest out of Lakewood (Calif.) High last year,” Baseball America explains, “but teams weren’t willing to meet his bonus demands and he went unpicked in the shortened five-round draft.”
His velocity has ticked up this year, as the 6’4 lefty has now shown the ability to touch 94 mph. Still, he’s a bit of a projection pick, as reports indicate a good changeup, and good “ingredients” (as BA puts it), despite the fact that he struggled a little bit in-game this season. Of course, as an 18-year-old in JUCO, he was a little bit younger than much of his competition, which could explain it. FanGraphs, for what it’s worth, had him as their 68th ranked draft prospect — BA, meanwhile, had him closer to where the Jays picked him, ranking him number 90.
• Round four (Pick 121): Chad Dallas - RHP, Tennessee
“Only” 5’11, but already able to touch 97 mph on the radar gun, struck out 106 in 90 2/3 innings this season while walking just 19. He throws a fastball, curve, and cutter/splitter (depending on the source) and according to BA "scouts have confidence he can start at the next level, with the sort of breaking stuff that should be able to miss pro bats."
Keegan Matheson of BlueJays.com picked up a great little quote from Dallas that he included in his day two coverage.
When Dallas arrived at Tennessee, two of his teammates -- Connor Pavolony and Evan Russell -- didn’t think he was a pitcher. Instead, they admitted to him later that they first thought he was a catcher, as Dallas told Knox News.
“Size is for the eyes, wins are for the stats,” Dallas said.
There is, uh, also this to consider:
Makes you think, doesn’t it?
• Round five (Pick 152): Irving Carter - RHP, Calvary Christian Academy
An 18-year-old standing 6’4, Carter pitched in the same rotation as 13th overall pick Andrew Painter, with BA calling him "the best No. 2 high school arm in the country." He already sits in the low-90s and can touch 95, which coupled with his "super projectable frame" give him some extremely intriguing upside despite being this far down in the draft.
The fact that Carter has committed to go to the University of Miami has led to some suggestions that he could be a tough sign for the Jays. But, uh, that didn’t seem to be a concern after his name was called.
According to the Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel, this is where Carter wants to be.
“I feel I’m in a great place with Toronto,” Carter said. “They’re just a great team, a young team. The spring training’s in Florida.”
The slot value for the No. 152 pick is $350,300, but Carter could sign for more money. He is a Miami Hurricanes signee, but Carter said Monday that he would forego his commitment to Miami and would sign with Toronto.
“I’m a Blue Jay,” Carter said. “I’m signing.”
Not the best negotiating position, but nonetheless you love to see it. Carter had 84 strikeouts in 48 2/3 innings in his senior high school season, and per BA has had his fastball spin rate up to 2,500 rpm. Could wind up a steal.
Top image via the Toronto Blue Jays/@BlueJays