Rumours, links, and things: Sunday, January 17
On Michael Brantley, George Springer, Luis Castillo, Mike Moustakas, Trevor Bauer, Masahiro Tanaka, Corey Kluber, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and more!
The Jays continue to provide us with plenty of grist for the rumour mill, despite continuing in their over two-month streak of virtual inactivity. Were we not in the middle of a pandemic-related lockdown I might have had something better to do on a Sunday night, but we are! And I don’t! So here are you latest Blue Jays rumours.
But first! In case you missed my little bit of housekeeping yesterday, I’ve started up a Facebook page for the site. As I said then ,I don’t really use Facebook myself, as I’m doomed to walk the earth shackled to Twitter, and that’s about all the social media I can handle. But I will be posting everything I do on there just as soon as it goes up. So, if you’d like to see my work in your feed, or want to share it with your friends, go give it a like.
Now on to the rumours, links, and things!
Another Astros outfielder?
Probably the most interesting Jays-related thing we heard on Sunday came from a piece by Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic, who examined the different challenges faced by the Jays and Mets when it comes to signing George Springer.
One idea that he thinks might help is if the Jays also tried to sign Springer's good friend Michael Brantley.
The Jays have been linked with absolutely everybody this winter, so naturally there have been reports suggesting they've had interest in Brantley. Clearly, though, he's in a tier below where they're hoping to shop. Plus, the Jays already have a perfectly good player in his position, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Or, if you're less bullish on Brantley's abilities as a defender at nearly 34 years old, Rowdy Tellez.
It’s actually quite an interesting idea though. Rosenthal notes that both Springer and Brantley are represented by the same agency, Excel Sports Management, which at least makes some kind of a package deal theoretically possible. And Brantley necessarily as bad a fit for the Jays as you might think.
Lourdes Gurriel has 969 2/3 innings in left field for his career, which began in 2018. Over that span he's been -5 runs per DRS and +1.4 runs by UZR. Brantley has been +14 runs by DRS in 2,243 1/3 innings over the same span, and +6.3 by UZR. And that includes a weak 2018 season for him (-2 DRS, +0.5 UZR). The Astros only put Brantley in left field 19 times last year, so that has to be considered. But in 2020, Gurriel's sprint speed was only barely better than Brantley's, coming in at 26.3 feet/second compared to 26.2.
Gurriel can get better as a defender, I think. But at the moment Brantley wouldn’t necessarily be a downgrade. (To be fair, it must be also noted that Statcast’s Outs Above Average had him as -5 runs in 2018 and -4 in 2019 before rebounding to +1 in 2020.)
He wouldn’t be a downgrade at the plate, either. Over those same three seasons, Brantley has produced a 129 wRC+ to Gurriel's 121, and accumulated 9.0 WAR per FanGraphs, compared to 3.5. Gurriel's 138 wRC+ topped Brantley's 134 mark in 2020, though Brantley was slightly better by WAR (1.3 to 1.2), and has consistently gotten better marks for his baserunning.
He’s also hits from the left side, which would be an asset to a Jays lineup that still tilts fairly heavily to the right. And he’s tough to strike out, too, with an excellent 10.8% rate for his career.
Now, you don’t want pay for his past production, and I think it’s fair to believe that Gurriel has a good chance to be the better player over the next two or three years. But with his age and a contract that pays him just $13.4 million over the next three seasons (then has another year of control beyond that), he surely could be the centrepiece of a deal that lands the Jays a very good starting pitcher.
Obviously everyone would prefer it if the Jays were to trade Randal Grichuk in order to make way for a pair of new outfielders. Some might even prefer they trade Teoscar Hernández — personally I don’t think I’m in that group, though it’s a moot point because Gurriel’s contract makes him a much more valuable trade chip. But if it meant adding Springer, Brantley, and a starter to add to the top of the rotation? I could live with that.
And if, as some (likely dubious) reports have suggested, the Reds would want Clint Frazier and Miguel Andújar from the Yankees in a deal for Luis Castillo, Gurriel might look like a pretty good substitute for Frazier. And if the Jays were willing to take on Mike Moustakas’s contract they might not need to offer a whole lot else.
Of course, the Reds seem pretty set for corner outfielders, so I’m not sure why they’d be looking for another one. And the idea of landing Springer, Brantley, Castillo, and Moustakas in one fell swoop would seem to have us straying a good distance into ridiculous pipe dream territory. But don’t say there aren’t still interesting options left out there for the Jays.
Because it’s mid-January it maybe doesn’t feel like there’s a whole lot of off-season still left, but don’t stop forgetting that there are still a ton of moving parts out there.
Maybe the Jays don’t even want Springer??
There are, of course, other big free agents still out there. And there is at least one former GM who has consistently had the Jays favouring one that isn’t George Springer.
On December 4th:
On December 14th:
And again here on Sunday:
The former GM is, of course, Jim Bowden. And you can see from these tweets that regular listeners to him on MLB Network Radio are not exactly confident in what they’re hearing. But it’s worth noting! Maybe he’s hearing something others are not.
Hopefully not! I’ll spare you a repeat of my thoughts on the Jays signing Trevor Bauer, but, um, hopefully not!
Damn Yankees
Andy Martino of SNY has an interesting new piece up on the Yankees' wheelings and dealings over the last few days. In it he reports, among other things, that the Yankees' rotation is likely set after the addition of Corey Kluber, meaning that Masahiro Tanaka is now on the outside looking in. "Tanaka is seeking a one-year deal at $15-20 million," he writes.
The correct response to that? Right here, baby:
How could Tanaka say no to an offer like that?
Well, if he’s Kluber, pretty easily, apparently.
“After Kluber threw a well-attended bullpen session in Florida last week, several teams began bidding aggressively, including a previously unknown suitor: the Toronto Blue Jays,” Martino reports. “This pushed Kluber’s base salary past what many in the industry expected, considering his recent injury history.”
He adds that the Yankees’ $11 million offer was not the best one Kluber received, and that multiple teams were “willing to pay more than $10 million.” However, Kluber’s familiarity with the Yankees’ director of player health and performance, Eric Cressy, with whom he worked with during his rehab from the shoulder issue that limited him to just a single inning in 2020, seems to have been a gigantic advantage.
Martino’s piece also weighs in on the idea, which we discussed above, that the Yankees are considering a play for the Reds’ Luis Castillo. Key quote: “If the Yanks could unload Adam Ottavino’s contract, they could accommodate Castillo.”
According to Cot’s, the Yankees are now just $5.95 million away from the luxury tax threshold. So unless they start moving players like Ottavino out, they are no longer going to be a factor this winter. All the more reason for the Jays to get extremely aggressive before all is said and done this winter. When else will they not have the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, or any number of other teams lurking around trying to steal free agents from their grasp?
Also, this seems worth noting here, especially given some of the rumours that ran wild for a minute here on Sunday night.
Worse still, we have this nugget!
Weird. I usually find Nick Krall a whole funnier than that. Who couldn’t love that “Oh, Hello” sketch he does with John Mulaney? This isn’t funny at all, Nick! Trade Castillo to the Jays! We’ll take Moustakas!
Ballad of a thin Vlad
OK, let’s get back on track here. We’ve got good news and bad news today on the Thin Vlad front. And though it continues to feel more than a bit icky to be as concerned as Jays fans tend to get about a 21-year-old’s body, it’s pretty hard to deny that it’s a real issue. Something the team, and Vlad himself, have basically admitted.
First, the good news. He really does look to be in excellent condition. Like a totally different person, frankly. Good for him!
The differencia is definitely clara.
The bad news? Well, it’s actually not so bad.
I don’t think the Jays can reasonably move Vlad back to third base permanently at this point, but should he get to continue to be an option there based on the work he’s done to get himself into the right condition? Absolutely. Force their hand, Vlad!
Links!
Jays outfielder Jonathan Davis talks to Sportsnet’s David Singh about his commitment to help bring about social change. Among the topics covered are his admiration for LeBron James, his charity work, and his work with the Players Alliance, a group of over 100 Black current and former big leaguers, led by former Blue Jay Curtis Granderson and longtime Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia.
A considerably less heartwarming story regarding the Jays and racial justice — in fact, an unbelievably outrageous story — was reported on Sunday by the Buffalo News. In the summer of 2019, an Eric County police deputy named Daniel E. Zlotek saw a truck he didn't recognize outside of his girlfriend's house. The next day, Zlotek, in violation of his department's policy on personal use of police databases, ran the plates of the truck, finding out that it belonged to Anthony Alford, then an outfielder with the Bisons. The day after that, Zlotek went in uniform to Sahlen Field to confront Alford. According to the report, Alford "said he saw it as an attempt to intimidate and told The News he feared it could happen again." Zlotek's punishment? A mere seven day suspension.
The story is lengthy and infuriating and well-reported. It’s worth your time to read it in full — and the Buffalo News deserves at least a click for it. I would probably lean toward saying something like “you can’t reform that!” but this, I thought, was a pretty reasonable response, too.
Mike Axisa of CBS Sports takes a look at the Jays’ off-season of near-misses, and hits on something about the state of the American League that really can’t be said enough. “Looking at the American League landscape, the White Sox are the only contender to meaningfully improve this winter. Cleveland traded Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. The Yankees brought back LeMahieu and essentially replaced Masahiro Tanaka with Corey Kluber. The Rays traded Blake Snell and let Charlie Morton walk. The Athletics, Astros, and Twins have been mostly quiet.” It’s there for the taking, Blue Jays. Go take it already.
Lastly, Jays Journal tries to test Betteridge’s law of headlines with a piece titled, “Is it time to move on from George Springer?” As usual, Betteridge is correct.
Heyman reporting uncertainty of over where Jays are playing this season is scaring off FA's.
Stoeten, this is something we discussed on here awhile back before guys started signing. Looks like there's a lot to it. It always made sense to me that this would be a major roadblock.
JJ is awful.