Spring Notes: Sunday, March 14th
On Robbie Ray, Alek Manoah, TV troubles, next winter's free agent pitching market, and more!
The Blue Jays and Yankees have just finished up Dunedin, in a game that New York’s WFAN actually sent a radio crew to broadcast. What that meant, of course, was that savvy fans were able to hook up both the Jays’ fancy Field Cam and the Yankees’ radio call in order to create some semblance of a real broadcast. Pathetic! And yet better than nothing, I suppose.
Anyway, here are today’s Spring Notes.
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Game Stuff
It was a big day for some top Jays pitching prospects, as they were given the task of handling the pitching duties. In addition to Alek Manoah, who started the ballgame, the Jays sent Simeon Woods Richardson, Adam Kloffenstein, Jackson Rees, and C.J. Van Eyk out to face the Bronx Bombers.
It wasn’t exactly the Yankees’ ‘A’ lineup that they were coming up against, and — as is typical of spring training games — the quality of their opponents’ lineup didn’t exactly improve as the game went on, but it was a good test for these young arms nonetheless.
Some of them fared quite well, it turns out!
Three up, three down…
▲ Before we get to Sunday’s game, let’s rewind a little and talk about what happened earlier in the weekend. Blue Jays fans know as well as any fan base about the importance of the mental side of pitching. Roy Halladay’s legendary career arc made sure of that. And on that subject, it really seems as though Robbie Ray is in a very good place now that he’s back with the Jays.
A smile after a good outing can’t tell us everything, obviously, but clearly Ray felt last year that he was in a great place working with Pete Walker, Matt Buschmann, and the rest of the Jays’ staff, and so far this spring the good vibes have continued.
"Ray’s fastball averaged 95.8 mph and reached as high as 97.3 mph, a comfortable bump up from his 2020 average of 93.9," explained Keegan Matheson of BlueJays.com after Saturday’s outing. "Ray worked on his changeup Saturday and tried to get some curveballs across for strikes, and he still felt like he could have gone another inning after throwing 52 pitches over four."
It’s definitely early, but so far he’s making the Jays look pretty smart for believing in him. And they’re going to need some stories like that if they’re going to make a real run at a playoff spot, or even — dare I say it — challenge the Yankees for the AL East crown.
▲ Hey, and speaking of the 2021 Blue Jays needing some good stories, how about Alek Manoah? Or, as one might be inclined to say about his performance here on Sunday: HOW ABOUT ALEK MANOAH!
The youngster not only looked the part against the Yankees, he excelled. Manoah pitched three perfect innings, striking out seven of the nine batters he faced — several of them against guys with significant big league experience.
If you missed it, I assure you it was as fun as it sounds!
Now, nobody expects the club’s 2019 first round pick to actually make the big leagues out of camp here. He has just 17 professional innings under his belt, all of which came with Vancouver in his draft year. That’s mighty far down the organizational ladder. Yet, despite that inexperience, last year he was one of the pitchers that the Blue Jays brought to their alternate site in Rochester.
I’m just going to leave this right here…
Manoah was a college arm with a big fastball who always had the potential to move fairly quickly through the system, especially as a reliever. Watching him today, it’s hard not to think that that possibility could be very much in play later on in the 2021 season.
It’s easy to get a bit carried away here in mid-March, but, frankly, his performance makes you think there’s a chance he could be even more than that. And soon.
▲ Today’s final up arrow can’t go to anyone but the great Munenori Kawasaki and this delightful discussion of his former Blue Jays teammate, Mark Buehrle.
▼ Maybe this is just because he’s in my ear as I’m writing this post, but man alive, Jeff Nelson is not doing it for me. And that’s putting it politely. WFAN’s colour commentator is working alongside Rickie Ricardo here on Sunday, raging against Kevin Cash and “analytics” that he seems to only have a passing knowledge of, and generally being crusty about the current state of the game of baseball. You know, the thing we’re all here to enjoy on a Sunday afternoon in March despite the fact that it doesn’t count in the standings and half the players are guys nobody recognizes? Miss me with this.
▼ For our second down arrow of the day we’re going to go with Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who back on Friday did not acquit himself well on a Pirates inside-the-park home run.
Yes, I’m going a little far back to admonish Gurriel for a play that was maybe not quite as bad as it looked — especially considering the circumstances (i.e. spring training in Bradenton). Still, though, that was a little league home run in the truest sense of the term. Woof.
Perhaps why he should be playing third base!
▼ Our next down arrow? You guessed it, Sportsnet!
A big part of me is finding this subject pretty boring by now, but another part feels I really can’t stop hammering the Jays’ TV partner about their lack of coverage this spring. I mean, AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh saw value in producing a TV broadcast for Friday’s game. They did so despite the fact that the Pirates played at a 111 loss pace last season. They did so despite the fact that there is no end in sight for this fresh Pirates rebuild. They did so despite the fact that the club’s last "successful" run (an NLDS loss in 2013, followed by a pair of Wild Card game exits in 2014 and 2015) came at the end of a 20 year playoff drought.
Only the most diehard Pirates fans should have had any interest whatsoever in what the team is doing here in the spring before yet another purposefully wasted year, and yet there was the team broadcaster actually serving those fans, and the Pirates brand. Kudos to them. Good job!
Kudos to WFAN for producing a radio broadcast — even one with Jeff Nelson on it — here on Sunday as well. And an even bigger kudos to Fox Sports Detroit, because on Monday we’ll get to watch a weekday afternoon spring training game featuring the Jays and Tigers from Lakeland.
It’s just so nice to see regional sports networks serving the fans of the teams they own the broadcast rights to, rather than serving them scraps from other networks, isn’t it? *COUGH*
Links
• Interesting stuff, as always, from Paul Berthelot of Blue Jays Nation, as he takes us through some Blue Jays spring Statcast stats to keep an eye on.
• Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star sees a silver lining to the fact that Nate Pearson is currently on the shelf and likely will not be a part of the Jays’ rotation come opening day: the fact that his absence is at least going to help manage his workload this year.
• Were it not for Alek Manoah’s outstanding performance here on Sunday, Alejandro Kirk would have received one of my up arrows thanks to the excellent work he’s been putting in so far this spring. Over at Sportsnet, Ben Nicholson Smith takes a look at how the young catcher is forcing the Jays’ hand when it comes to the backup catcher position. He looks ready.
• Elsewhere at Sportsnet, Teoscar Hernández is one of Arash’s People.
Previewing next winter’s pitching market for some reason!
The great MLB Trade Rumors got a bit ahead of itself this week, producing a very early edition of their free agent power rankings for next winter. A whole lot of baseball is going to happen between now and then, so a lot could change both in terms of the list and in terms of any particular team’s needs, but I think we already have a pretty good sense of what the Blue Jays will likely be looking for when that time does come. They’ve clear this entire winter that the aim next winter will be to spend again. They’ll be buyers. They’ll have a bunch of money — though how much may depend somewhat on how quickly they can get back to playing games in Toronto. And they’ll almost certainly be looking for starting pitching.
Sure, maybe someone like Alek Manoah comes along, hits the ground running, and completely changes the equation for them. But the Jays going after pitching next winter seems a fairly safe bet. And so, with that in mind, in the spirit of MLBTR’s excitement for next winter, I’ve decided to take a Blue Jays-centric look at the two pitchers that made their top 10 list, plus several more they gave an honourable mention to, and give my two cents as to who seems like a realistic target.
Trevor Bauer
RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers - Current age: 30y55d, Career IP: 1,190
Well this one’s easy. I'm going to continue to take a hard pass on the clown that is seeking attention by throwing pitches with one eye closed — though maybe that will end now that he's actually hit someone.
You know, I enjoy horseplay as much as the next person, but maybe when even your curveball moves faster than most humans could throw at max effort, doing it to actual live batters is stupid. And shitty. And dangerous. And fuck off, Trevor Bauer.
It's funny how a bat flip can cause a week's worth of discourse about respect, yet that's not what's happening with this nonsense, isn’t it? I'd rather someone disrespect me by flipping a bat than by putting my safety at risk, personally.
Anywho! Bauer has an opt-out that could see him hit the open market again next winter. Hopefully the Jays are sufficiently turned off by now.
Clayton Kershaw
LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers - Current age: 32y359d, Career IP: 2,333
Kershaw reaching free agency is maybe not the most likely outcome next winter, but the Dodgers are not exactly the most sentimental team in the game, so there’s a chance. He’ll be heading into his age 34 season at that point, which means he could very well have some good innings left still in him. But there are a lot of innings on that arm already, and it would seem so surreal to see him pitch anywhere but L.A. that I don’t know that we really need to think about this one too much.
Max Scherzer
RHP, Washington Nationals — Current age: 36y229d, Career IP: 2,357 1/3
Though it’s just about as weird to think of Scherzer in a Blue Jays uniform as it is Kershaw, the fact that he’s four years older makes his situation quite a bit different, I think. Scherzer will turn 38 in July of 2022, so the offers he gets won’t have a ton of term, and that potentially puts him in the Blue Jays’ sort of wheelhouse. On top of that, banking on Scherzer staying healthy and effective for three more years might make better sense for the Jays than banking on someone younger staying healthier for longer.
There will be a lot of other suitors if he gets to free agency, so I wouldn’t exactly consider his a name to get too hung up on, but I’m not ready to believe yet that it’s impossible the Jays could make a serious run at him.
Noah Syndergaard
RHP, New York Mets — Current age: 28y179d, Career IP: 716
If Syndergaard was healthy, I’m sure the Mets would love to have signed an extension with him already. As it is, he could be heading for free agency.
Right now the hope is that Syndergaard will be able to be pitching in the Mets’ rotation by June, which will be 15 months after he had Tommy John surgery. That won’t leave a lot of time to put together a solid post-surgery track record, which, unfortunately for him, is going to be a hugely important factor in his next contract. It seems to me that it’s probably going to be in his best interest to pitch as much as possible before he considers signing anything.
Maybe the Mets blow him away with an extension offer this summer and all this becomes moot, but I think there’s a good chance he gets to free agency.
If so, giddy up.
Now, it’s possible that I’m not being rational and, perhaps, a little too fond of “fun things,” but Syndergaard heading into his age-29 season is the kind of pitcher I’d hope the Jays would be doing everything in their power to sign. What’s the market rate? Perfect, offer just a little higher than that then. Damn it, there’s a wrong to be righted here! Syndergaard pitching for the Blue Jays. Make it happen.
Lance McCullers Jr.
RHP, Houston Astros - Current age: 27y163d, Career IP: 508 2/3
Well, we know the Jays have a penchant for guys who used to be with the Astros. They probably also would like the fact that McCullers will be a relatively young free agent. But just how much interest they might have in him will, I am confident, be dictated by how he performs this coming season.
I suppose that’s true for all of these guys, but I think 2021 is especially pertinent for McCullers. He made 27 starts back in 2015, between Double-A and the majors, but due to injury has failed to pitch anywhere near that often since. Thing is, he had Tommy John surgery in late 2018, and was back to full health by the time the season got underway in 2020. McCullers pitched 55 innings for the Astros over 11 starts last year, though he did end up on the injured list in September due to "neck nerve irritation."
McCullers has always had success at getting big league hitters out, but staying on the field has been another matter. A full and healthy 2021 season won't erase the concerns that teams surely have about him, but might make the difference between whether he’s seen as a potential cornerstone or not.
Kevin Gausman
RHP, San Francisco Giants — Current age: 30y067d, Career IP: 985 1/3
Here’s a guy I think Jays fans should be keeping their eyes on in 2021. Gausman, according to Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic, was not just an early target for the Blue Jays this winter, but a fairly significant one.
“According to sources,” he wrote back in November, they offered “a three-year deal, believed to be in the $40 million range, before the pitcher accepted the Giants’ one-year, $18.9 million qualifying offer.”
The fact that the Jays showed interest in the past doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll be just as enamored with Gausman next winter, especially if he fares poorly in 2021 — ask Jake Odorizzi about that. But Gausman has been a solid mid-rotation kind of guy most years, and that might put him in exactly the tier of pitchers that the Jays will be focussing on.
And if his increased ability to generate swing-and-miss over the last couple years holds, he could actually end up being one of the jewels of next year's free agent class.
Marcus Stroman
RHP, New York Mets — Current age: 29y317d, Career IP: 849 1/3
I love Marcus Stroman and I’d love to see Marcus Stroman pitching for the Jays again, but does this idea elicit the same enthusiasm from me as the idea of Syndergaard does? No. Why? Because as slim of a chance as I think there is that the Jays land Syndergaard, I think the chances of Stroman coming back are probably slimmer.
Dylan Bundy
RHP, Los Angeles Angels — Current age: 28y119d, Career IP: 680
Like Gausman, Bundy serves as a reminder that — as Jays president Mark Shapiro has been quick to point out of late — it takes time for starting pitchers to find their footing in the big leagues. Fourth overall picks in back-to-back years for the Orioles (2011 and 2012), Bundy and Gausman were supposed to anchor Baltimore's rotation for years to come. That didn't happen, obviously. But just as Gausman seemed to unlock something by increasing his strikeout rate over the last couple seasons, Bundy had the best year of his career in 2020 because he managed to keep the ball in the ballpark.
Granted, he moved to a more pitcher-friendly park and division last season, and the sample size we're talking about is just 11 starts, but if he can succeed again in 2021, he'll be a very interesting free agent indeed. His age and the lack of mileage on his arm are both plusses.
Lance Lynn
RHP, Chicago White Sox — Current age: 33y306d, Career IP: 1,426 2/3
I would have guessed that Lynn was a little bit older, and that his career ERA — which currently sits at 3.57 — was a little bit worse. He feels to me like a guy who has been around a long time, and was decent enough until the last couple of seasons, which have been pretty magnificent for him. In fact, while it’s true that best year of his career was definitely 2019, he's really not that old — just a few weeks younger than Hyun Jin Ryu — and other than a rough 2018 has been pretty consistently successful. He’s also been fairly durable, too.
There are reasons beyond his age to be worried about him, mind you. His 2020 looked great in terms of ERA, and was the second best full season of his big league career in terms of strikeout rate and K-BB%, but some of the peripheral numbers weren't quite so shiny. His FIP was just 4.19, for example. His xFIP was 4.34, and his DRA- was 91 — better than average, but only 50th among the 111 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched in 2020.
Still, he was as good as anyone in 2019, is reasonably close to being a top tier guy, and will be at an age next season where any sort of mega-contract will be out of reach for him. That could put him very much in play for a team like the Jays. At the very least, it makes his another name to keep our eyes on here in 2021.
Top image stolen from @birenball
Bauer thinks he's quirky and charming like Greinke but he's just kind of an idiot. Greinke is a treasure.
Despite how messy the Stroman divorce was, I always wonder if Stroman the businessman looks at the Jays and Canada as a giant endorsement opportunity to take advantage of. Like, he was partnered with a cargo jet company while he was here. I know he's a competitive dude but I think "chance to win" and "chance to make all the money" is like a 1A/1B situation with the order debatable. So I can't rule him out completely.
It's interesting to think back on the pitching prospects we've salivated over in recent years: Sanchez, Syndegaard, Norris, Nicolino, Hoffman and the latest bunch. But how many panned out either with us or other orgs? Sanchez had one good year as a starter. Syndegaard is awesome but now injured. It just seems we haven't had much 'luck' developing top of the line starters who are reasonably durable. Stroman seemed like a finished product when he arrived, but who else? Who was the last decent starter to come out of our system?