Stoeten answers Griffin's mailbag: The return!
You knew I had to.
After spending the last several years working in the Blue Jays’ communications department, longtime Toronto Star columnist (and, before that, Expos PR man) Richard Griffin is back covering the team over at his new Substack site, Griff’s The Pitch. And evidently that means he’s going to be back regularly taking questions from readers in mailbag form!
For those of you who are newer to my work, one of my favourite things to do in the old DJF days — probably starting way back in 2007 — was to “hijack” Griff’s mailbag. I don’t remember if it was because I didn’t think anybody was reading my own work, if I thought it too audacious or old school to ask for reader questions of my own, or if I simply delighted in the “crime,” but it offered a great way to contrast my own views with those of someone who had as big a platform as anybody writing about the Jays — something I guess I thought was important at the time.
Over the years, as I’ve become less of a complete outsider, and less a dogmatic seamhead, those differences have become less stark. Or so I assume, because — at least when it comes to mail bags — as always, I haven’t read any of Griff’s answers.
Wiser than I am — not to mention a much better sport about all this than I’m sure I deserved! — Griff hasn’t allowed his first mail bag of this new era to devolve into some kind of 10,000 word sprawl the way I tend to. In exchange for this brevity, however, comes frequency. He’s already taking questions for his next one!
So, with time ticking until we have to do this all again in a week, let’s dive in. It’s the return of the Griff Bag, volume one!
As always, I haven’t… well… you know the drill…
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Q-Hey Griff Stoet,
Greetings from the Maritimes. Over the off-season, the Blue Jays front office seemed able to fill most of the team’s apparent weaknesses. That being said, (GM Ross) Atkins seemed to come up short when it came to filling out the rotation with a reliable fifth starter. Every season, it seems teams need at least 10 starters. In your opinion, what does the Jays rotation depth chart look like and is it deep enough?
Hedley, Millville, NB
Teams should always be striving to add more pitching depth — you can never get enough. So, in a general sense I think you’re right. But also, I think you’re probably right in a specific sense, too.
The shoulder impingement that has already set Mitch White’s timeline back only further entrenches Yusei Kikuchi’s place in the rotation, and we know how quickly that could go sideways. And what if it does and White’s not ready? Hell, what if it does and White is ready?
What if the off-season work to refine his release point and stop being “wild in the zone” done by José Berríos doesn’t take? What if he’s… uh… somehow worse?
The Jays are just a little too close to having to think about handing the ball to Zach Thompson (5.18 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 6.66 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, 1.41 HR/9 in 2022 and ultimately DFA'd by the Pirates) or Drew Hutchison (4.53 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 5.81 K/9, 3.59 BB/9, 1.28 HR/9 in 2022 with the Tigers) for comfort.
There are other options, of course. Yosver Zulueta is going to be given every opportunity to stick as a starter. Nate Pearson has probably exhausted his own opportunities, but might get a look in a pinch/if he's healthy/if he pitches well in spring. Thomas Hatch, Bowden Francis, and Casey Lawrence still exist. Hayden Juenger is something between a starter and reliever, but could provide some useful bulk innings if things click for him the way some folks think they might. And later on in the season significantly better depth in the form of Hyun Jin Ryu and Ricky Tiedemann could enter the picture.
The schedule also provides the club with four days off between opening day on March 30th and the end of April, which could be used to minimize the need for a fifth starter early on, giving them further chances to add more depth if need be.
So, the situation is not exactly dire. It's also important to remember that signing quality depth guys when you already appear to have six starters for five spots is easier said than done. But yes, they could use more.
And there's still a chance to do something on that front as teams shape and finalize their rosters over the next six weeks. Could you land a squeezed-out depth starter for a package of Trevor Richards and Trent Thornton? Is another Steven Matz trade out there somewhere? It wouldn't surprise me at all if they found one more small piece before all is said and done.
Q-Hi Griff Stoet,
Will MLB have robot umpires eventually? Your thoughts on them?
Trevor, Saskatoon, Sk
I think it’s an inevitability, and something that should have been done yesterday. Admittedly, I’ve been swayed before by the romantic case against it — you’re not pitching to a physically defined space so much as you are to an idea! — and I appreciate the traditionalist view that baseball, as much as possible, ought to remain a game untouched by time. Unfortunately, those arguments are absurd.
Pitchers throw so hard and with so much movement that it’s impossible for a human to get every call right. Yes, this has been true throughout the history of the sport, but it’s harder now than ever, and only now does everyone watching on TV get to instantly see precisely where each pitch crossed the plate. The stands have always been packed with thousands of wannabe umpires, now they’re on Twitter, driving the discourse, and they have instant proof when they’re right and the guy whose opinion actually counts is wrong.
It’s a joke. It’s a distraction. The umpires shouldn’t be the story. The players, who very often are better judges of balls and strikes than the men in blue, should not have the impact of their skills, or their chance for success in an at-bat, blunted by “other people’s mediocrity,” as a wise man once put it.
This is very simple, and I think obvious, stuff.
Using technology here won’t eliminate umpire controversies altogether, of course, but it will bring batters’ skills further to the fore. The umpire’s union should be pleased to know that it won’t eliminate jobs either, because someone will still need to be standing back there. It doesn’t even necessarily need to be used for every single pitch.
The Arizona Fall League experimented with a challenge system this year, adding an interesting new dimension to the batter-vs.-umpire experience. Like, how cool was this?
It’s my hope that some of the changes the league has implemented for 2023 — particularly the pitch clock, about which I’ve heard nothing but overwhelming positivity — will shake some of the traditionalists out of their fear of change. “Robot umpires” are long overdue. And when it finally does happen we’ll wonder what on earth took so long.
Speaking of the need for a pitch clock…
Q-Hey Griff Stoet –
Long time (Andrew Richard) Stoeten Griffin Mailbag Reader, first time Griff Stoet Mailbag submittor (signed up for your substack as well, can't wait to read all your answers this time!).
My question: What's the inside scuttlebutt on the Teo (Hernandez)/Lourdes (Gurriel, Jr.) trades this offseason? (Mark) Shapiro definitely hinted in his interview with the Toronto Sun (Rob Longley) that "maturation" of the clubhouse culture was a priority, and that fun and joy were a big part of the team last year, but they wanted to balance that with more... I guess seriousness and intensity.
I'm dying to know what the inside story is on Teo and Lourdes if it was writing on the wall that they'd be traded this offseason, how the rest of the clubhouse felt - especially more outwardly serious guys like Bo and Chapman, if Schneider coming in had anything to do with it, etc. etc. etc. WHAT'S THE INSIDE SCOOP!
Thanks Griff Stoet!
Eric A. Toronto
Thanks so much for the question, and for signing up for the Substack! I obviously can’t offer any kind of inside information on this (perhaps you’ve confused me for someone else?) but I feel like you’re looking for a much bigger story in this stuff than is really there.
I can’t blame you for that, because a ton of fans have been wondering the same things — and for reasons that are pretty obvious. I’ve written on this subject numerous times this winter, so I’ll try not to belabour the point too much, but I’ll say this: we don’t know what, if any, role a desire to change the clubhouse culture had in Lourdes and Teoscar no longer being here; we absolutely know that the front office desired better outfield defence, better baserunning, and more lineup balance.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, right? And, realistically, who else was going to move if the determination had been made that taking the same basic shape as the 2021 or 2022 versions of the club wasn’t going to be good enough?
Matt Chapman? I suppose. And some of his recent comments to Gregor Chisholm of the Star — “I kind of always anticipated playing out the two years and seeing what would happen. That doesn’t mean I’m not open to what could be a possibility but that’s not all entirely up to me” — make it seem more likely than not that he’ll test the free agent market next winter, as does the fact that his agent is Scott Boras. But his glove is as good as they come and, unlike Teoscar, his presence isn’t keeping George Springer off of his ideal position.
Bo? Theoretically? But now you’re talking about a major change, and a deal where it would have been practically impossible to get back enough win-now talent to replace getting four or five wins out of Bo’s one roster spot.
So… yeah. Lourdes and Teo were kind of it. I don’t think their departures have to have been about any sort of internal drama, or anything more than the reasons that we can see.
Q-Hey Griff Stoet,
Long-time reader when you were with The Star and happy to have you covering the game again. I feel the last couple years have been the same hype and the same (unfortunate) results. In your opinion, what can we expect to be different this season?
Cheers and looking forward to following your stuff this season this season.
Mark C. Kingston, Ontario
Well, first and foremost the results, hopefully! And I think there’s a very good chance of that. In extremely general and non-scientific terms, I think they’ve probably replaced the runs that Lourdes and Teoscar created with the runs Varsho and Kiermaier will save (plus the offence Varsho will provide). PECOTA, for what it’s worth, projects them as a win below last year’s total, but I personally think the rotation is almost certainly better, and at the very least just as good. I think the bullpen is better, and has better options waiting in the wings than a year ago. I don’t think the Yankees or Aaron Judge will be as good, either. I think playing fewer intra-divisional games will help them in the Wild Card race. And I think that Vlad getting back to his 2021 level, or Brandon Belt actually being healthy, could realistically vault them well past where they were last year.
Both of those things happening? Both happening and Sprigner and Kiermaier also staying healthy? Then I think it could be an incredibly special year, though obviously we’re now talking about a lot of ifs.
More than that, I think we’re going to see a lot more entertaining baseball — not only just because of the personnel changes, but because of the changes to the outfield configuration, and to MLB’s rules. The pitch clock will help shorten games, the shift ban may create more balls in play, the bigger bags and limits on pickoff attempts will change the running game significantly and add another layer of strategy to contemplate.
They should be good. It should be fun. There ought to be hype — just as there should have been last year and the year before, too. They have as good a chance as anybody of finishing the year as World Series champions.
Q-Hi Griff Stoet,
From all indications, the Blue Jays have upgraded their defence, especially in the outfield. But as wonderful a player as Bo Bichette is, his defence remains the weakest part of his game. Should Jays fans looking for a pennant be concerned?
Rob M. Montreal
Maybe I'm wrong — and old — for thinking about it like this, but I sometimes wonder if the incredible transformation that took place when the Jays replaced José Reyes with Troy Tulowitzki in 2015 has made Jays a little too afraid of the idea of a bat-first shortstop.
Bo's defence is obviously not great, and obviously in an ideal world he'd be a second baseman. But suboptimal shortstop defence on its own doesn't inhibit success, and we can see that quite plainly if we dig into some numbers even just a little bit.
Looking at Outs Above Average at shortstop by team, we find that even though the Jays (-8) ranked 26th in baseball in 2023, they were actually fourth of the six AL playoff teams in this category, and only just barely behind the Rays (-7). The Guardians (-10) and Mariners (-12) both ended up worse, and the Yankees (-3) were also on the wrong side of the ledger.
The fact that the Astros led the American League at +10 and then went on to win the World Series should probably be noted here, but so should the fact that their Fall Classic opponents, the Phillies, ranked 18th in baseball at 0.
This isn't just a 2022 thing, either. In 2021 the Dodgers (-14) won 106 games, and the Red Sox (-9), Brewers (-9), and Yankees (-14) all made the playoffs. In 2019 the Yankees (-25) won 102 games, Brewers (-4), A's (-5) and Twins (-21) all made the playoffs.
That’s not to say that shortstop defence isn't important, obviously. But it can work. If it's on the poorer side you've just got to balance it out elsewhere. Bo, who produced a 129 wRC+ in 2022, certainly does that.
Yes, it will be frustrating at times, just hope it’s better and, if not, try to remember the dingers.
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Good to see Griff back, thanks for the link. The robo ump is polarising and I’m totally anti. Sure it’s sucks to see bad calls, but losing that much of the human element? No thanks. I’d rather see them get rid of the superimposed strike zone on tv.
LOOK AT THE ZiPS PROJECTIONS THEY ARE SOOOO GOOOD (for the hitters)