Stray Thoughts... - Break Stuff

On KK's waiver trip, Teo's derby win, Trey Yesavage, Vlad's contract, the 2025 schedule release, Rob Manfred, a Toronto All-Star Game, and more!

Image via the Los Angeles Dodgers/@Dodgers

The Blue Jays reached the MLB season's traditional two-week-late midpoint after a win in Arizona back on Sunday, avoiding both a series sweep and a loss in a game they at one point led 7-0. They'll get the second half started on Friday night against Detroit, sitting at 44-52, last in the AL East, 9.5 games out of the third American League Wild Card spot.

And, folks, that's the good news.

A month ago these Jays were just 4.5 games out of that last Wild Card spot. The Astros, who now sit 3.5 games back of the Wild Card and just a game back of the Mariners for the AL West lead, were behind them. So were the Rays, who now sit 5.5 games back. The Tigers and Rangers have both passed them in the last two weeks, and sit at 7.0 and 7.5 games back.

I'm not sure that all those teams are within what they'd consider striking distance, but in a season where ambiguity about what to do at the trade deadline may have been the biggest trap the Jays could have faced, they seem to be avoiding any kind mirage of their own.

The path forward may not lead them out of the desert—they are, after all, just 27th in home runs hit, 19th by wRC+, 24th by ERA, 29th by bullpen ERA, dead last in home runs allowed, and 26th in run differential (that's the less good news!)—but its direction at least seems clear.

The baseball world has been, of course, focused on the All-Star game and the draft this week, but at this time of year the trade deadline is always in the background—or occasionally even the fore. Last week, not long after some clown wrote that the treasonous, self-interested Mark Shapiro was outrageously refusing to declare that his Blue Jays will be sellers—the ass-dumb implication being that the club, which it was claimed was “paddling in circles, not willing to admit or declare they have lost their way but desperately in need of some kind of plan,” might not even be willing to sell at all—reports began to emerge that centre fielder Kevin Kiermaier had been placed on waivers.

It was an unusual move—so much so that there was a lot of confusion over it until the Blue Jays confirmed what was going on. The New York Post originally reported that Kiermaier had been placed on revocable waivers, which no longer exist but used to be central to how teams were able to trade players in August, after the deadline passed. Some fans, simply hearing the word waivers and believing Kiermaier had been designated for assignment, looked at the fact that he was playing in a game at the time and naturally assumed that the hated Blue Jays front office had somehow wronged the player. Tiresome stuff! And also wrong: Kiermaier had been placed on regular waivers, but not for the purpose of trying to outright him off the roster. The Jays had simply hoped there was a club out there that would claim him, and therefore take his contract off of their books. No one did and he's still with the team. (Though Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions suggests that a contending team really should still consider him.)

This was interesting for reasons beyond just the fact that it indicates the Jays are likely looking to move their pending free agents. The Post speculated, I assume correctly, that the move suggests the club is looking to get under the competitive tax threshold by the end of the season—a number they're currently over by about $10 million according to both the article and Roster Resource.

If the Jays stay above the threshold they'll have to pay 30% on every dollar over it. That number would go up to 50% if they're over again next year. Getting under would reset the penalty to 20% the next time they go over, whenever that might be.

Getting under would also ensure the Jays a better compensation pick in next year's draft should they end up making a qualifying offer to one of their free agents this winter—guys they'd certainly prefer to trade away, it seems, though a weeks-long injury to either Danny Jansen or Yusei Kikuchi could put this scenario in play.

In other words: the Kiermaier move doesn't appear to have been an attempt at cost-cutting just for the sake of cost-cutting, and the desire to reset the CBT penalty may be an indication that they could consider going back over the threshold again sooner than later—an indication that they’re likely looking to retool over the winter rather than full-on tearing things down.

This was also suggested by a recent Mark Feinsand piece at MLB.com, which noted that “according to sources, the Blue Jays have told other clubs that they are willing to move players with expiring contracts, but those with control beyond 2024 are not being traded.”

Whether that's posturing or not obviously remains to be seen. I still wouldn't be completely shocked to see someone like Bo Bichette or Chad Green on the move. But more and more the evidence seems to show that the fans ready to burn everything down aren't going to get their wish. At least not in full, or not yet.

And with all that juicy transaction stuff in mind, here are some stray thoughts—All-Star Week Edition...

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Teo wins the Derby

On Monday night, happy-go-lucky former Blue Jays right fielder, Teoscar Hernández, won the league’s annual Home Run Derby. Not only that, he did so with former teammate—and reigning derby champion—Vladimir Guerrero Jr. coaching, congratulating, and cheering him on, all while wearing his old number 37 Blue Jays jersey. It was a fun and cool moment for a couple of guys who obviously still have a lot of affection for each other, and for plenty of sincerely nostalgic Jays fans.

It was also a moment that certain Blue Jays fans, myself included I suppose, couldn't help but make about themselves—and, particularly, about their anger with GM Ross Atkins and the way things have gone since Teoscar left.

It's the nature of fandom, I think, to have one-sided view of a guy like Teoscar's departure, and I certainly can't blame anyone for pining for a more entertaining brand of Blue Jays baseball—or just, specifically, for the fun we had in the days of Mr. Seeds and Piña Power. But I do feel the revisionism I saw on Monday night could use a bit of a check.

Dealing away Teoscar helped address what seemed to be a number of very real issues. It made complete sense at the time, and still does, even if plenty of fans understandably didn't like it.

Now, let me be clear that by “very real issues” I don't mean the perceived lack of seriousness among the 2022 Jays, which was nonsense—albeit nonsense believed by enough fans that I genuinely think it scared the front office into making it part of their calculation, and almost certainly had something to do with the incredibly dumb disappearance of the Home Run Jacket after that season. Was it as big a part of the calculation as the need—arising from rule changes on the basepaths, the shift ban, and new outfield dimensions at Rogers Centre—for better baserunning, more speed, and improved defence? I tend to doubt it—though I suspect we'll never know the real truth, meaning that Atkins-haters will always be able to craft a believable narrative about breaking up the Barrio Boys.

Beyond all that stuff, I think the thing people remember about Teo’s departure is that the Jays genuinely felt they needed to get more left-handed and more difficult to attack as a lineup. Less remembered is that they also felt, correctly, that it was time for George Springer to move off of centre field, and that there was definitely a financial component to the deal as well.

The club saved $12.5 million in the exchange—money that, among other things, helped to bring in Brandon Belt as a left-handed DH bat. Belt, it’s worth noting, didn't just better-complement the lineup but was much better at the plate than Teoscar in 2023, and produced more WAR despite playing far fewer games and not having a defensive position.

The Jays at the time also needed help in the bullpen, which getting Erik Swanson absolutely provided in 2023 (and I think he deserves a lot of leeway for his lost 2024 given the life-threating accident his son experienced during spring training). Adding young starting pitching depth was also a goal, which they accomplished in getting Adam Macko—a prospect who is even more important for the club now that Mitch White, Yosver Zulueta, Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, and Wes Parsons have ended up elsewhere.

Then there's the fact—absent in far too many of the complaints I hear about this deal, as well as the one that sent Lourdes Gurriel Jr. away—that Teoscar only had a year remaining on his contract. The Jays absolutely could have worked out an extension with him, but let’s consider what that actually would have meant.

On the simplest level it would have meant no Swanson and no Macko. There would also have been no 2023 savings, meaning that there's likely either no Kiermaier or no Belt.

Now, because we know the Moreno-Gurriel-Varsho deal was available, that's workable enough. Left field would be open for Teoscar, Belt could DH, and Varsho would have pushed Springer to right field. But one problem with this path is that it really hurts your bullpen, as you don't get Swanson, and tying up money in Teo and Belt would have made finding the money for Chad Green, and maybe even Jay Jackson, more difficult.

Another problem is that Keirmaier (104) was just one point of wRC+ worse than Teo (105) last season, and worth one win more by FanGraphs and two more per Baseball Reference.

Maybe Teo hits better if he doesn't play his home games in Seattle, and Kiermaier obviously had an outlier year as far as offensive production goes—plus, this is obviously all hindsight—but the Jays did really well here! And that’s not even taking into account that those WAR totals are with Teoscar playing in right field, not left, which the Jays had always avoided asking him to do, and where he's generally been worse. For example, he's split his time between both fields with the Dodgers this year (419 1/3 innings in left, 395 1/3 innings in right) and been much better in right (+2 DRS/-1 OAA) than in left (-7 DRS/-5 OAA).

So, in the end you get weaker run prevention because you have a worse bullpen and worse outfield defence, and you get a weaker farm system because you no longer receive one of your top 10 prospects. A more typical Teoscar year would have offset some of this, but even projecting for that, I have a hard time being critical of this trade. Especially considering that even with Swanson and Green, the Jays felt the need to deal away Robberse and Kloffenstein to add Jordan Hicks to their bullpen for the stretch run. The 2023 Jays as constituted were a few homers and some better mid-season RISP luck away from being a seriously good team. It wasn’t a fun regular season and they once again failed to rewrite their story in October with a post-season flop, but trading away Hernández had very little to do with any of that.

And what happens in 2024 in this scenario?

Obviously there are so many moving parts that it's hard to say with certainty, but since you extended Teoscar after his three-win, 130 wRC+ season in 2022—which followed a four-win 2023—you're probably locked into him at similar money to the $23.5 million you're paying Kiermaier and Justin Turner.

Not having those two around wouldn't be so bad, because you’d have Teo at DH and Davis Schneider mostly handling left field—the way it really should be at this point anyway. Hell, missing out on Swanson wouldn't have changed much this year either. But not meaningfully changing anything about 2024 obviously wouldn’t be very helpful. And would you have even had the money to spend on IKF if you were coming into the year with a bullpen that didn't include Swanson or Green? Wouldn’t you have needed to spend there? Do you land Yariel Rodríguez if Teo’s here?

And then thinking forward to next winter in this scenario, you don't even have the KK and Turner money coming off the books to try to help fix things.

In other words, I think it’s very hard to say they have been better off keeping him.

Of course, there is another possible scenario. They could have traded Teoscar in the first place, then signed him back to the same deal as the Dodgers did this past winter.

That certainly would have felt better. It would have been more fun—and maybe that’s enough. But would it have made a difference? I’m not so sure. And neither is WAR, which has Teoscar worth 1.5 (BR) and 1.9 (FG) wins more than Kiermaier and Turner combined—impressive totals, but not enough to have changed the trajectory of the Blue Jays’ season.

I’m willing to buy that home runs have been such a problem here that Teo’s extra 10 could have been slightly more meaningful than just one or two wins, and I still don’t think it’s enough. So where, then, would that even leave us?

If Teoscar was here right now on an expiring contract, would keeping him long-term beyond this season the right way forward for a team likely in transition and possibly better off continuing to go year-to-year at DH anyway? Would we not be talking about trading him to a contender right now anyway?

Ultimately, having Teo around is a nice thought, and there’s certainly nothing wrong with liking particular players or pining for better times and a better team, but I don't think nostalgia makes for good analysis.

Getting Drafty…

The other big event this week was, of course, MLB’s annual amateur draft. It’s an event that is incredibly important, especially considering where this particular franchise may be headed, but something I have a very hard time overly scrutinizing or having any kind of a hard opinion on.

Sure, years ago I would pump out breathless draft content by aggregating the many expert opinions out there every year, but in the age of social media that hardly seems necessary. And as someone who doesn’t spend time watching college ball—let alone Juco or keeping tabs on high schoolers—I simply don’t have the tools to say much about any of these players or picks, and certainly wouldn’t want to suggest otherwise.

Still, there are a few things that jump out that I think are worth noting, specifically when it comes to the Jays' top pick, East Carolina RHP Trey Yesavage.

The big takeaway here is that the Jays seem to have managed to get a potential steal—or, conversely, that Yesavage really slid. The team was named one of the Day One winners by Mike Axisa of CBS Sports, and the pitcher himself one of the losers by Edward Sutelan of the Sporting News.

Sutelan writes that he’s not sure what else Yesavage could have done to land higher and earn himself a richer bonus, and wondering why he fell and noting “there was at one point” talk of him being a top 10 pick. Axisa, on the other hand, says that Yesavage’s “deep arsenal and track record don’t make it outside the top 15 very often” and suggests that a “partially collapsed lung that kept (him) out of the ACC tournament may have caused him to slip a bit”—though he adds that “he returned in the Regionals a week later and was dynamite.”

Over at the Athletic, Keith Law calls him “one of the most major-league-ready starting pitchers in the class,” and says he believes “he should start next year no lower than Double A or he’ll just carve up A-ball hitters.” For a Jays team that could use an infusion of high-minors starting pitching talent, that sounds very promising (as long as apparent concerns about his short arm action don’t get in the way). And ESPN’s Dave Schoenfield notes that “if he adds even a little more velocity”—something the Blue Jays seem to have a pretty good track record of doing in recent years—“he could end up being one of the steals of the first round.”

All of this tracks with what we see in the image below, highlighting data and percentile rankings relative to all Division 1 pitchers, via Antonio Urquídez.

Tying this all together quite nicely, I think, are the comments—and the comp!—on Yesavage made by Baseball America’s Geoff Pontes, who spoke this week to Shoab Alli and Julia Kreuz of the Fan 590 earlier this week:

I chatted with some of the folks in the front office last night, including Chris Curtis, who's the northeast crosschecker and covers that area, and they were ecstatic about this pick. This was somebody that they had on their board a little bit higher in the first round. We had him ranked 11th overall, we had him mocked to the Red Sox at 12.

I would say in terms of pitchability and starter's traits he was probably the most complete pitcher in the draft in that sense. Certainly Chase Burns (2, Cincinnati) has bigger stuff. Hagen Smith (5, White Sox) being a left-hander, has bigger stuff, is really unique. But I think if you look at Yesavage's body of work at East Carolina—and while it's not an ACC or SEC school, one of the best mid-majors in the country, if not sort of the most successful mid-majors in the country. And one that's produced a fair amount of top pitching prospects over the last couple years. Gavin Williams a few years ago, who's now with the Cleveland Guardians in their rotation. Carson Whisenhunt, who had some stuff his last year, but left ECU, was one of their products, but a pretty high pick for the Giants. And I think Yesavage has a chance to be the best pitcher that's come out of this program over the last few years.

This is a guy that has—you know, we talk about pitch metric, about movement a lot over the last couple years. This guy has elite ride. When I put a comp on him coming into the draft, we sort of did the top three pitchers and put different comps on him, I put a Justin Verlander comp on him. It's a higher release like Verlander, he gets behind the ball, it creates an elite amount of ride. The numbers that we see in college are typically a little juiced, but he was averaging, in terms of what we get for data, is 22 inches. I would imagine once he gets under a Hawkeye device it's going to be more like 18 or 19.

Eighteen or 19 inches, you're within that Verlander, Gerrit Cole sort of range, with someone that can really ride it to the top of the zone.

And then beyond that he's got a variety of other pitches. He's got a gyro slider that he throws for strikes, he's got a curveball that will flash that will have some depth as well. I like the offspeed as well. I think his secondaries are going to eat.

There's been some questions about his extension—he's sort of a short-strider. So, just in terms of where some of the knocks on him are were there. Had sort of a weird injury where he had a collapsed lung due to a regimen that he had during his training, missed a start but then came back and pitched for them in the regionals.

He's a really interesting pitcher. I think the Blue Jays are ecstatic that this guy dropped down to 20—in fact, I know they are. He's probably not going to pitch (as a pro) this year. That's typically pretty prudent with someone that's had as many innings, has pitched as many innings, as Yesavage has over the last couple of years. But I think this is arguably the most complete starter in the draft,

And I think if you look at what the Blue Jays have done well over the last couple years, it's later round, high-skill college bats—a guy like Spencer Horwitz, for example—but it's also guys like this. They've done a really good job with pitching. Injuries have been unfortunate in the organization. There is some injury concern. I know there was some talk, some smoke around, potentially, some concerns with his back. But if you look at the track record, outside of a freak incident that happened, like I said, due to his trainer, he's been there, he's been on the mound, he's been one of the most consistent guys, highly decorated, he was a collegiate national team member. So there's a lot to like here, and I think this is one of the better values in the first round.

I know they’re all potential Hall of Famers when they’re drafted, but… yeah, that all sounds pretty good!

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Quickly…

• The Jays, of course, made many more draft picks than just the top one. Some of them may even end up being somewhat interesting! We’ll get to know some of the individual stories better in the coming years—and there’s plenty of coverage on those players now, for anyone who wishes to seek it out—but for me I think it’s more useful from here to look at the group as a whole. MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson did a good job of that in his draft overview, noting that it was a college-heavy one for the Jays, and that on the offensive side of the ball they have type: “high-contact bats with advanced plate approaches, even if the power is lagging behind.”

• “This all tracks with what you’re seeing from the Blue Jays at the Major League level, for better or for worse,” Keegan writes of that particular type. Cue eye-rolls! But the thing is, for me, I think there’s sense in this approach when it comes to the draft. The hit tool is really important, and I think it’s reasonable to believe that it’s probably easier to coax power out of a good hitter than it is to teach a raw power guy how to hit. (I also think that the way a lot of Jays fans have allowed themselves to imagine the club thinks about offence is some of the dumbest stuff I’ve ever heard. I wrote about this once, after last season, and though things haven’t improved this year for a variety of reasons, I stand by it.)

• Speaking of players not hitting enough home runs: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., everybody! The Jays’ best hitter and only 2024 All-Star has been in the news recently, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand—a reporter Ross Atkins took umbrage with back in June when he suggested that he’d been speaking with other clubs about potentially trading Vlad and Bo—wrote that “Guerrero and the Blue Jays have discussed a potential extension, but sources said the two sides were not particularly close to getting a deal done.”

I don’t even know how to react to this stuff anymore. The lack of traction on an extension with Vlad has been an annoying bit of background noise for this franchise over the last several years, but it obviously remains incredibly difficult to know how to actually put a value on a 25-year-old with a 6.3 fWAR season on his resume and elite-elite exit velocities, yet who has only been worth just a shade under that in his 412 games since. Over at the Toronto Star, Gregor Chisholm suggests that “free agency might be the only solution.” Maybe. He’ll certainly see some concrete numbers if he gets to that point, though they may not be ones he likes—especially if he doesn’t continue the excellent run of play he’s been on over the last two months all the way through the end of next season, and if the Jays choose to hold on to him and then tie a qualifying offer to him. But before we get there you’d really like to think someone on one side or the other here should be able to get creative with opt-outs, deferrals, etc., and put something together that can make all parties happy.

“I would love to be in Toronto,” Vladdy told Feinsand, which… yeah, if I’m the Jays I stop worrying about slightly overpaying here and just make it happen already. (They can get their value fix when they trade Bo!)

• Then again, maybe they’re all getting traded—well, except for George Springer and Chris Bassitt, who are the only two Blue Jays to have made it onto the graphics the club is using to promote their just-released 2025 schedule. (I joke, I joke. We don’t have to do this. Please let’s not do this!)

• Speaking of, here are eight quick schedule highlights because I don’t feel like adding another 1,000 words to this post about it:

1. For the first time since 2019 the Jays will be playing at home on Opening Day, when they’ll host 2024 playoff flops the Baltimore Orioles.

2. They’ll get another dose of pageantry just over a week later when they visit Citi Field for the Mets’ home opener.

3. MLB's ever-expanding middle means that there won't be many easy stretches, though April and September seem especially tough: of the 18 series they’ll play in those two months, 10 are against division rivals, with Atlanta, Seattle, and Houston twice also mixed in.

4. Get used to talking about building some momentum heading into the midseason classic, as the Jays will host the useless Angels then visit the lowly White Sox and A's heading into the All-Star break.

5. Canada Day, a Tuesday, will be a home game against the Yankees, but the Jays won't play another home game on a holiday: Victoria Day is somehow an off-day in the middle of a homestand, while they'll be in Denver on the August long weekend and Cincinnati on Labour Day.

6. That the always-notable road series in Seattle is on a weekend is good, I suppose. Probably less good is that it's in early May.

7. August sees two weekend road series: one against the Dodgers in L.A., and the other in Miami. Book your travel plans accordingly.

8. The season also ends at home, September 28th against the Rays. Well, the regular season, at least.

• Speaking of actual games, according to Shi Davidi, the Jays have announced (after some confusion) that coming out of the break they will be handing the ball to Chris Bassitt. He goes against the Tigers on Friday night, followed by Yusei Kikuchi and then Kevin Gausman.

• I think this would have happened either way, but it is notable that Kikuchi is now slated for just two more starts before the trade deadline. After that it is expected that he’ll be headed to a contender as he moves into the final months of the three-year, $36 million contract he signed ahead of 2022. Dan Hayes of the Athletic suggests that a Twins team in need of starting pitching could be interested.

• Regarding that, MLBTR’s Steve Adams writes that “Detroit’s Jack Flaherty is the most highly regarded rental arm likely to be on the market, though he’d likely command a prospect of note and the Twins might balk at sending a touted farmhand to a division rival.”

The implication here seems to be that Kikuchi wouldn’t bring back a “prospect of note,” and he may be right, as he brings up Kikuchi’s struggles of late, particularly with the long ball. The next two starts may be especially important for the Blue Jays, then. Though his 6.00 ERA since the start of June may have already turned this into a repeat of 2018’s J.A. Happ situation.

• Elsewhere at MLBTR, Darragh McDonald goes deep the Jays and the way that their possible desire to get under the CBT threshold, as we discussed above, could impact their deadline.

• Speaking of the trade market, it appears as though it's going to be a tricky one for buyers, largely because of Manfredball and the number of teams that still feel they have a chance at the postseason. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, as pointed out by the great Brendon Kuhn, had an interesting quote about all of this on Seattle's Brock & Salk radio show this week:

“I would like to find a way to create better flow and more contact within our offense. And again, I don’t know if we’re going to be able to access that on the trade market, but we’re going to try. We’re open to that. As we’ve always been, we are open to doing something that has the potential to be dynamic. Again, I don’t know if that’s going to be available as we push into the deadline. Right now, it’s not. And this is as late as we’ve ever gone into a trade deadline where I can honestly say it’s not.”

BK quips: “What if a team was willing to listen on a certain dynamic player though??”

• A trio of recent must-reads: Ben Nicholson-Smith had a great one on the Blue Jays’ spotty draft record last week at Sportsnet, while David Laurila of FanGraphs had a pair of great interviews, one with Chris Bassitt on the art of pitching and the other with assistant hitting coach Matt Hague on how things have changed since he was a player and how modern hitting coaching works.

• Lastly, two more Rob Manfred things, the first of which is that the commissioner told reporters this week in Arlington that it's possible the league will test out the automated ball-strike system in spring training next year. This, the Athletic's Evan Drellich says, “could lead to potential implementation in 2026. But it is not a guarantee they will move on that schedule, and he feels the spring test in important.”

Personally, I don't like this idea. Not because I'm opposed to the ABS system, or robot umpires more generally (though it would certainly devalue a catcher like Alejandro Kirk, if that's still something we even care about at this point), but because I think it will be a big success next spring and it will be stupid to have to watch it get shelved for at least another year after they give us a taste of it. Be prepared to proceed with it in 2025 you coward!

• Secondly, and speaking of cowardice, Manfred also addressed the decision to award this year's All-Star festivities—something the league has been willing to play politics with in the past (i.e. when it the game was removed from Atlanta because of a Georgia voting law passed in 2021)—to the Rangers, despite their being the one team in baseball that doesn't hold a Pride Night. Per the Washington Post's Chelsea Janes, here's what he said:

Look, there are a whole lot of factors that go into deciding who's going to get an All-Star Game. I don't view whether you hold a Pride Night or not as an outcome-determinant issue. It's an issue. We look at all those issues and try to make a decision and give it to the place that we think is going to be the best. And it's really important here to remember there's a massive public investment in terms of creating a great new facility. And honestly, that's an important consideration in terms of awarding All-Star Games.

The Blue Jays, of course, have been trying in recent years to have the ASG return to Toronto for the first time since 1991, and the thought has been that the large-scale renovations at Rogers Centre over the last two winters would be a great reason to bring it back to Canada. However, this week in Texas, Sportsnet's Shi Davidi put a slight damper on that notion, writing that back in February, Manfred had “hinted that the Blue Jays and the Cubs are next in line” for the league's showcase event. “But he was less committal Tuesday.”

Shi cites several potential hurdles to cross before the Jays could be handed the game, but the most Manfred of all possible outcomes would be that MLB chooses to withhold it because the Blue Jays failed to extract a “massive public investment” from local taxpayers the way the Rangers did and simply paid for the renovations themselves. A terrible precedent if you’re some sort of a ghoul, I suppose.

I guess we’ll see. As usual, though, Tipping Pitches has it exactly right on this one:

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