Stray Thoughts... - Holy Lord They Needed That
PLUS: Anatomy of a Ridiculous Catch, David Popkins, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Arjun Nimmala, Bo joining the Seleção, Jeff Hoffman, Eric Lauer, Nate Pearson, and more!
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Honestly, I’m not sure anything more needs to be said about Wednesday night’s Blue Jays win over the Red Sox than the title of this piece. A day after the only memorable moment the team could produce was Daulton Varsho sparing his own blushes with an absurd catch recovery in yet another lopsided defeat—sinking the club’s record to just 1-8 over their previous nine games—the Blue Jays conjured an astonishing comeback to beat Boston after maybe reaching the lowest point of their season.
To say things had been going poorly for the Jays during this recent run would have been an understatement. There had been close games, winnable games, and should-have-been-winnable games, but the bottom line was that during their 1-8 stretch their run differential was -41. They’d scored a pitiful 18 runs in nine games. They had allowed 59.
Jays fans had chugged along with cautious optimism for much of April, thanks to some strung early returns. The pitching had been solid, and though the lineup wasn’t scoring in bunches or hitting for much power—the top of the order, in particular, was in a funk—they spent the first two or three weeks of the season successfully passing the baton, scratching out enough runs and making enough key hits to at least keep their heads above water. But the nine games prior to Wednesday’s were a completely different story—to the point of sucking just about every molecule of optimism out of the Rogers Centre air, had there even been any left in there amid the fog of apathy.
And you could feel that vacuum of spirit—or, at least, I assume so, seeing as I could sense it so palpably through my TV—as Wednesday’s tilt began to follow a maddeningly familiar script. Jays starters had allowed 17 runs in the three games previous, and even though the plan for this one was to piggyback opener Yariel Rodríguez and just-activated lefty Eric Lauer, making it harder to repeat that specific “feat,” the outcome was hardly different. Their struggling lineup was already looking at having to dig their way out of a 4-0 hole by the time they came to bat in the second inning, and things would only get worse from there.
The hits kept on failing to come. Then, in the top of the sixth, the decision was made to start bringing in some of the club’s too-well-rested higher leverage relievers. Chad Green was up first, and he continued what’s been a rough season for him so far. After retiring Kristian Campbell on a pop-up he walked Triston Casas, missed out on a double play due to the speed of Ceddanne Rafaela, and then—with Rafaela distractingly dancing off of first base—he caught too much of the plate with a high slider to number nine hitter Carlos Narváez, who blasted a two-run shot to left.
The Blue Jays were now down 6-0, headed for their ninth loss in ten games—the lone win having only come because the Yankees’ since deposed closer, Devin Williams, blew up real good. This after having lost 10-2 on Tuesday, 11-2 in one of Sunday’s games. This while being a team that had recorded just three multi-run innings in their previous 107.
Grim stuff.
But, of course, we all know what happened next.
George Springer went down 0-2 to Lucas Giolito with two outs and the bases empty in the bottom of the sixth, the Jays seemingly about to go quietly once again. But he wouldn’t be tempted, fought off the only ball from there that was close to the zone, and worked himself a walk.
Then Varsho—who has yet to find this kind of stroke in Toronto, but showed 27-home-run power in his last year in Arizona, and looked like the very best version of himself all spring—promptly went down 0-2 as well, before walloping a changeup over the right field fence for a two-run shot. Alejandro Kirk then looked at a fastball in the dirt, then smashed a piss rod over the left field fence off of yet another changeup.
An inning later it was Anthony Santander, again with two outs, again with a changeup, but this time from Garrett Whitlock, with two runners on, and on a 2-0 count. (Clip via Sportsnet)
Home runs. What a concept!
The outcome was hardly a foregone conclusion from there, even with Jeff “the Human Foregone Conclusion” Hoffman available to pitch two perfect innings. It didn’t exactly feel yet like a game they were destined to win, only just one that they needed to win. And yet, in a somewhat unexpected turn of events, they managed to do exactly that.
Hoffman was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2023 and 2024, yet still feels like a revelation. Brendon Little continued to be very impressive…
…and, of course, once the Jays got past Aroldis Chapman in extra innings, it was their game to lose.
Which they might have!
Vlad’s dump truck getting in the way of Rafaela’s throw from centre on a shallow Santander fly out in the bottom of the 10th that allowed him to be safe—and made his riskyyyyyy decision to tag up and try for third look genius—wasn’t a foregone conclusion either.
Nor was Alejandro Kirk’s rocket to win the game, the aftermath of which you see in the top image of this post. But, however they got there, they got there.
And they celebrated like they new exactly how crucial it was that they did.
Will it mean anything? Well, for one thing, not everything has to. It was a fun moment in a season that has produced far too few of those so far. Let’s just enjoy it for that alone. Especially because, ultimately, we have no idea where this might go. Believe me, I recognize that I began this piece writing in the past tense about things that may not yet be in the past. Their awful run may not be over. This may just be another blip that we’ll look back on similarly to the Devin Williams game if things just keep on going sideways from here.
But it was nice to see them win a game without the pitching having to be perfect. It was nice to see some home runs. Home runs from the guys who are more capable of hitting them than they’ve shown so far. Home runs with guys actually on base. The kind of instant offence that could have turned any number of losses these past two years into wins.
More, please. More. More. More.
Now for some Stray Thoughts…
Anatomy of a Ridiculous Catch
I don’t think I could sum up Daulton Varsho’s wundercatch on Tuesday night any better than the way that friend of the site Matthew Kory of Sox Outsider did, so I’m not going to even try…
It was… something, that’s for sure.
But though I’m opting out of trying to describe it succinctly here, what I can offer you instead is a quick, nearly step-by-step breakdown of the play as it happened.
Sound fun? Well, it had better! Because here we go…
It’s the top of the fourth, but already a blow-out, so Dillon Tate is in the game for the Jays, throwing a 1-0 pitch to Jarren Duran. Most fans have already tuned out, by which I mean me. I was not watching when this happened.
What? A 7-0 deficit facing Crochet? With the most frustrating lineup in baseball? Thanks, I’ll pass. No idea how those two Jays runs came about—curious to find out! Or not!
Tate’s offering is an 84 mph curveball, pretty well located at the absolute bottom corner of the zone. Or, at least, it would have been if a good hitter didn’t have a half hour to track it to a hittable place and smash it into sub-earth orbit.
It’s, like… way up there…
It’s also heading out to straightaway centre field, but slicing just a tiny bit toward left off the bat of the lefty Duran.
Daulton Varsho, making his season debut after spending the first month of the season on the IL, is the only player remotely close to where the ball is going to land—straight away centre—and has at least one correct instinct right away, breaking back for a ball over his head.
But he’s started out shaded slightly toward left field. Too far, he thinks.
He sprints back to make what should be a fairly high probability play—95%, in fact—despite the impressive exit velocity (105) and expected batting average (.910) on the swing. It’s headed toward the deepest part of the park so is certainly playable, and as Varsho tracks it over his right shoulder he drifts toward straightaway centre and that 400 sign on the wall…
He realizes, though, that he’s gone too far, getting to the edge of the darker coloured grass strip before picking up the slice of the ball and beginning to circle back to his left…
He almost shuffles his feet under him, still looking over his right shoulder, but moving back to the left—back, and to the left—as he starts to settle under it.
He keeps tracking it as he reaches the spot, but realizes that he hasn’t quite circled back enough…
He’s facing right field, moving toward left, turning around, and in the process trips himself up…
…literally…
The momentum of his run sends him into a tumble, rolling back toward the wall, doing whatever he can to keep tracking the ball as it becomes physically impossible…
He’s reached the spot he needed to reach, or thereabouts, but he’s now fully on the ground, with his back to the ball—which, fortunately for him, hasn’t quite come down yet…
In a flash, he pushes his body up with his right hand, turns now to look over his left shoulder, and—lo and behold—after all that he’s managed to be exactly where he needed to be.
He turns his glove over to backhand it…
…and the ball comes straight down into the outstretched mitt…
…as his momentum continues to pull him toward the wall…
…and back to his feet as he swoops his glove behind his back, ball clutched safely inside.
Ta-da!
Quickly…
• I didn’t mention it above, but Jays hitting coach David Popkins was ejected from Wednesday’s game in the fourth inning. That’s right, the hitting coach wasn’t even allowed in the dugout when the offence finally exploded! This, of course, has nothing to do with anything—remember when they lost use of their iPads in a game at Comerica last year and scored nine runs, so a bunch of analytics-hating weirdos thought it meant something? LOL—but I still think Popkins should consider getting himself ejected every game. I’m not superstitious or anything, I just think it would be fun.
• I probably did Alejandro Kirk a bit dirty by not talking about him nearly enough in the sections above. After all, he was the walk-off hero on his own dang bobblehead night! Fortunately, Sportsnet’s Chris Black has a great thread on some of the recent changes he’s made—which certainly appear to be working…
• And furthermore…
• Speaking of Sportsnet, Nick Ashbourne—who I just finished recording a podcast with, which will be up later today, if it isn’t already by the time you’re reading this—has a great one on George Springer, and how strategic swinging is powering what could be a late career turnaround.
• Arjun Nimmala. That's it. That's the tweet.
• OK, OK, a little on Nimmala: The Jays’ 2023 top pick had an 0-for-4 on Tuesday after smashing home runs in each of his previous three games. So what did he do Wednesday? Oh, just 3-for-5 with a pair of doubles, two RBIs, and two runs scored. Maybe the most impressive thing about his season so far, however, is that despite getting an aggressive promotion to High-A, where he’s one of the youngest players in the league, he’s brought his strikeout rate down from 31% last year in Dunedin to just 21% so far this season in Vancouver. He’s going to crack a bunch of midseason top-100 lists, if not top-50s, if this keeps up.
• In less good news, as reported on Wednesday’s broadcast, and elsewhere, Erik Swanson experienced forearm stiffness ahead of his scheduled rehab start in Dunedin this week, and he’s been sent to Toronto to check in with the Jays’ doctors to determine his next steps. Could really use a guy to move Chad Green back a step in the bullpen pecking order here, so fingers crossed!
• MLB.com’s Michael Clair passes along a scoop from his Japan-based colleague Ayako Oikawa, who reports that Bo Bichette has made the decision to join his brother and play for Brazil at the World Baseball Classic next spring. Neat!
“It means a lot to our whole family. We want to do our best to contribute to the team’s victory and draw some attention to Brazilian baseball,” Bichette said.
• Hell yeah, man. Hard same.
• YOWZA
• COUNTERPOINT: Nah, we good.
• I did like Blue Jays Nation’s piece on Addison Barger’s loud tools, though!
• Can’t say I have a ton of thoughts on Eric Lauer’s Blue Jays debut, but I didn’t hate it. Twelve whiffs in four innings isn’t bad, right? And I'm intrigued by his pitch mix. Lauer was last in the big leagues with the Brewers in 2023, when he tossed 46 2/3 innings over 10 appearances. Statcast shows that he threw the same six types of pitches then as he did on Wednesday, but he used them in wildly different ways. Back in 2023, he threw his changeup less than 1% of the time and threw just a single sinker all season, but this time around they were his two most frequent offerings.
• Ouch. Former top Jays prospect Nate Pearson faced the Buffalo Bisons in Iowa on Wednesday, surrendering two runs, one earned, on two hits, a walk, and an HBP. Over three Triple-A innings his ERA sits at 10.80—remarkably similar to the 10.38 ERA that got him sent down by the Cubs in the first place.
• Lastly, and speaking of blasts from the past… what on earth??!?!? These two names simply do not belong together. They don’t belong anywhere near each other. YOU TAKE IT BACK, MIKE MAYER!
• NOW KEEP ON SCORING RUNS YOU JERKS!!!
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Playoffs!
Let's just not spoil the fun by talking about Y-Rod's inning.
I was so close to giving up on Wednesday's game. My stupid optimism paid off for a change.