Stray Thoughts... - Sacking Up
On Big Oak, big sac flies, big wins, a chance to top .500, Shane Bieber's debut, Varland, Vlad, Urías, Piñango, Clement, García, injury updates, transactions, and more!
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What a difference 12 innings on either side of some beautiful, bullpen-saving inclement weather makes, huh?
Back on Friday afternoon, as they were about to open up a weekend series in Chicago with the Cubs, it felt like the Jays had all kinds of momentum. They’d just swept the Red Sox in Boston off the back of an excellent Trey Yesavage performance and a great Brandon Valenzuela at-bat against Aroldis Chapman. Their playoff odds were climbing. The .500 mark appeared to be in reach.
Then Kevin Gausman went out and gave up a seven-spot in the first inning of game one at Wrigley. The Jays had trusted Gausman to build off Yesavage’s work and provide some innings to further spare their overworked bullpen—so much so that they were comfortable enough to choose sending down a potential multi-inning guy, Chad Dallas, prior to the game, and instead bringing back beleaguered Brendon Little just for the sake of having an extra lefty available.
It was an odd choice because Little hadn’t looked convincing while down in the minors—though he’d been better than a lot of fans were ready to give him credit for. It was an odd choice because, even though Mason Fluharty was unavailable for Friday after having pitched in back-to-back games in Boston, the Jays had faced that situation before recently and didn’t feel the need to scramble to add another lefty. It was an odd choice because the Cubs have one of the least lefty-heavy lineups in the league—though their best one, Pete Crow-Armstrong, is certainly a handful. And it was an odd choice, as we very quickly learned, because any hiccup from Gausman would have meant undoing Yesavage’s outstanding work and killing the bullpen with 13 games in 13 days still to play before the club’s next scheduled off-day.
It became apparent almost immediately that Gasuman didn’t have it in this one. A brutal Jesús Sánchez attempt at fielding a ball by the wall in right hurt him in the first inning, but maybe even worse were the four walks he issued in that frame. And despite not having it, because of the shape the bullpen was in, Gausman had to try to eat as many innings as he could.
Even that didn’t go well, as he lasted just 68 pitches, completing just two innings, before hitting the showers.
Braydon Fisher had to pitch. Tommy Nance had to pitch. Fans had to endure watching Little—who was, expectedly, awful—have to pitch. Spencer Miles. Tyler Rogers. Even Myles Straw had to pitch.
It was a brutal momentum-killer of a game. A16-2 drubbing. And it set the team up exceptionally poorly for the days ahead.
Fast forward about 24 hours and things were somehow looking even more bleak. Patrick Corbin surrendered a three-run home run to Matt Shaw in the second inning of Saturday afternoon’s game. Newly promoted Lazaro Estrada had to come bail him out in the fourth. Through five innings the Jays had managed just a single baserunner on the day. And though they managed a pair of singles to lead-off the top of the sixth, that potential rally came to nothing. Then, in the bottom of that frame, Estrada issued a two-out walk to Dansby Swanson and then surrendered a two-run shot to PCA.
That made if 5-0 Cubs, and the Jays appeared to be on their way to another bullpen-killing blowout.
Fortunately they weren’t quite ready for it to go down like that.
Enter our old friend Butters. Trent Thornton.
Thornton made 29 starts for the 2019 Blue Jays, but never fulfilled whatever potential the Jays saw in him when he was acquired for Aledmys Díaz back in November of 2018. They had a nice bit of found money there and squandered it in their quest for rotation depth.
Now a reliever for the Cubs, Thornton’s been back up in the majors since last month after having signed a minor league deal with them back in January. But that’s not to say that things are going well for him. And, especially on Saturday, things weren’t going well.
Vladdy opened up the seventh inning with a single. After a long Brandon Valenzuela out to right field, Thornton hit Kazuma Okamoto with the first pitch of his at-bat—though a review was required to determine this for certain. Three pitches later he elevated a shitty fastball to Daulton Varsho—freshly activated from the injured list that day—who promptly smashed a line drive home run down the right field line. Life!
The bottom of the seventh was handled well enough by Jeff Hoffman, despite his having to work around an Ernie Clement error, a hit-by-pitch, and a walk. Then, with Caleb Thielbar now into the game for Chicago, the Jays began the eight inning going walk (Straw), single (Springer), single (Kirk pinch hitting for Lukes), game-tying single (Vlad), strikeout (Valenzuela), before the big swing they so badly needed finally came—and did so from the one player who, all season so far, has been able to consistently provide power for them: BIG OAK.
Things weren’t quite done from there. Fluharty was given the bottom of the eighth and ended up facing the minimum, allowing a walk and two singles, and forcing the magnificent Louis Varland into the game to attempt his second eight-out save of the season. Which, of course, he absolutely nailed down.
Ho hum. Jays win. 8-6. Series back on. Momentum no longer sliding.
Except the series was, of course, not back on. Not long after, to—I think—the Jays’ great fortune, some nasty weather rolled in and Sunday’s finale was postponed.
The make-up date is set for August 6th, which will undoubtedly present a challenge. Instead of an off-day following three in Houston before three more in Philardelphia, the Jays will have to make a mid-trip pit stop and head back to Wrigley, creating a run of 17 games in 17 days. But by then not only will they likely be healthier, they’ll have likely picked up some reinforcements at the trade deadline as well.
Given the state of the pitching staff, I think you take the unscheduled off day 10 times out of 10. And I think Monday’s result, back home against Houston, showed why.
Dylan Cease once again didn’t have his most efficient of days against the Astros, lasting just 5 2/3 innings and walking four. Yet, as he tends to do, he still kept runs off the board, only giving up two on three hits while striking out eight. Fisher, Rogers, and Varland were, fortunately, available thanks to the postponement on Sunday and, as they have been so often this season, were exceptional in relief.
Meanwhile, though the Jays’ had another of their too-typical frustrating days at the plate, struggling to come up with game-breaking hits despite several opportunities (they went 1-for-9 with RISP), they did manage a trio of sac flies—hence the title of this post (what did you think I meant??)—and yet another big fly from Big Oak—his 17th of the season, putting him on pace for 35 this season— to wind up 4-2 winners and finally, mercifully, get themselves back to the .500 mark.
Easy peasy!
Now let’s get to a whole bunch of pre-game stray thoughts before today’s strange little World-Cup-affected mid-series afternoon tilt with the Astros!
Quickly…
• OK, so maybe it was neither easy nor peasy…
• What can you even say about Varland at this point? His 1.9 fWAR puts him in the top 25 for pitchers so far this season, tied with top starters like Max Fried, Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, and Shan McClanahan. His WPA is tops in baseball. His 0.84 ERA is obscene. It’s genuinely hard to believe this is a guy who came in an struggled to a 4.94 ERA in 23 2/3 innings after being acquired at last year’s trade deadline.
• So what’s different? Well, other than simply getting more used to the environment, it turns out there are a number of things to point to. Since coming over from the Twins he’s really upped his changeup usage (4.7% against LHB last July to 38.4% against them this month). He’s getting more horizontal movement and more drop on both the change and his knuckle curve. He’s found more spin on his four-seamer (2172 rpm last July to 2259 this month) as well as the KC (2343 in April of last year to 2622 rpm this month). He’s much less predictable in two-strike counts too, going from a 61.9% KC usage last July to almost an even split around 38% between it and the fastball—and he’s used the changeup in those counts too, despite not using it at all with two strikes last year in Minnesota.
• But it’s not just what he’s been throwing. It’s where he’s been throwing it. Look at the heat maps below for the knuckle curve and changeup in 2025 (left) versus 2026 (right). That’s a beautiful difference right there if you ask me! PAINT!
• And, of course, we need to talk about Big Oak again here, too. As mentioned above, the blast against Houston was his 17th on the season, putting him even with Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, CJ Abrams, and Zach Neto for 17th in baseball. That’s some pretty good company and Zach Neto to be in right there!
• DON’T LET THIS TEAM GET HOT. (PLEASE VLAD GET HOT.)
• Ah, but don’t worry too much, Jays fans. Rob Manfred’s balls are apparently coming to save Vlad.
• Speaking of Vladdy, Ross Atkins spoke to various assembled media members on the field prior to today’s game at Rogers Centre, and claims that he’s been “very encouraged by the line drives to the middle and the other way” from him lately. Which,… well… what else was he going to say?
• A few more things, it turns out! Just not about Vlad. Here we have Mitch Bannon of the Athletic providing a handy update all in one place. (If I can find the audio somewhere perhaps an Atkins Speaks will be in order. It’s been a while!)
• Somehow I’ve yet to even get to the big news of the day, which is, of course, that Shane Bieber is set to make his season debut on the hill today! I’ll be honest, I don’t know what exactly to expect from him after his struggles to get healthy and some less-than-inspiring minor league results. But it’s great to see him back. And even if all he can provide is “just” what he was able to do last year (a 3.57 ERA with some less shiny peripherals) I think I’d just about take that. (I’d be disappointed, for sure. But I’d take it. And I think asking for anything quite like his Cy Young best is… well… probably a lot at this point.)
• In order to activate Bieber the Jays needed to make two roster moves earlier, which they did by optioning Estrada back down to Buffalo, and by designating Hayden Juenger for assignment.
• The right-handed Juenger is currently having a nice spell at Buffalo, posting a 2.58 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and zero home runs allowed. He was unimpressive in a taste of big league action earlier this season, though. (Can I remember which series it was in without looking it up? Reader, I assure you I cannot.) (Oh, right, it was the Baltimore-Atlanta road trip.)
• Anyway, maybe he’ll get claimed and maybe he won’t. (That’s the kind of biting analysis you come here for, eh?)
• There have, of course, been other recent transactions for the Jays, including the demotion of Yohendrick Piñango down to Buffalo in order to the club to add the newly acquired—*extreme Feliz Navidad voice*—Luis Urías.
• Urías was acquired from the Diamondbacks over the weekend in exchange for cash, mostly because the minor league deal he’d been on in Arizona had an upward mobility clause allowing him to force a move elsewhere if he was going to be promoted to the majors.
• He’s never been a defensive wizard, but he is a right-handed hitter who can play in the middle infield—something that’s likely especially important for the Jays right now as they try to manage Ernie Clement’s balky hip. Urías has been just about a league average hitter in the past (97 career wRC+), hasn’t been completely devoid of power (he hit 23 home runs back in 2021), and has some very tasty numbers this year with Triple-A Reno: .361/.393/.546.
• The thing about that is, those numbers are inflated both by a very high BABIP (.367) and some of the crazy park factors out in the PCL, including in Reno itself. His wRC+ is just 123. Which is still good, of course. Just probably not what you’re thinking when you see that .939 OPS.
• Piñango had felt like a bit of a bright spot for the Jays, offensively. But some of that shine had obviously worn off, leading to his demotion. He was just 2 for his last 21 when he was sent down, which is a pretty small sample to base anything on, though I can hardly fault the team for having decided they’ve seen enough of his defensive work for now. He made a impression, at least.
• I tend to imagine that Urías will probably only be here as long as it takes for Addison Barger to get up to speed anyway. Prior to Monday’s game, manager John Schneider told reporters that the hope would be for Barger to get into rehab games on Thursday and will only need to be out another week.
• Oh, and just in case you weren’t up to speed on that whole Clement thing:
• Hey, and there are even more injury updates! Not sure this one is going to matter much once he’s healthy, though. And I think I speak for every single Jays fan in existence that I certainly hope it doesn’t!
• And we’ve also got another Ricky Tiedemann sighting upcoming!
• There was, of course, that nasty bit of business from Monday about Yimi García, who experienced soreness after his most recent rehab appearance and has had to consult with team doctors about it. Though, according to Atkins, we don’t seem to be talking about anything catastrophic here…
• I think I saw in there somewhere that Max Scherzer threw a bullpen that went well. Don’t quote me on that though!
• OK, moving on from the roster-y bits, here’s a fun one from Ian Hunter over at Blue Jays Nation, as he tells us about the history of the Blue Jays’ T-bird logo, which is back in the fold somewhat here in the team’s 50th anniversary season.
• I’ll be honest, I usually tend look just a little bit askew at it whenever huge numbers of fans of a team just so happen to collectively embrace “gritty,” “gamer,” hard-nosed, “does the little things right,” types who are very useful players but hardly superstars in an overly zealous way. But I can’t deny that the Ernie Clement thing is fun, man. And well deserved. Keep on making that man that top All-Star vote-getter!
• Be careful, though!
• Hmm. Why yes. Yes, I think I see what he did here.
• No? No one? Or, well, hardly anyone? No? OK, I can admit when something’s not my best work. Back to the ol’ drawing board…
• Let’s get that series win!
• AAAAAAAND, THAT’S IT FOR THIS ONE! BIEBER FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER? A SHOT TO GO ABOVE .500 FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE APRIL? WE NEED THIS ONE, BABY! BIG AFTERNOON A-COMING!!!! LET’S GOOOOOO!!!!
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Given all the issues we've had this year it's actually remarkable that we are at .500 (well 1 game under now), but there's still some weird things going on. Kirk had that great first game back, but is 3 for 21 since. In fact, that game was his best of the entire year so far. Bieber did not look good. Last year he had been nails in his rehab games before debuting for us. This year not so much. If he improves, fantastic, if not, then we've got a 3-headed Bieber-Corbin-Scherzer monster to deal with. And Barger...how long will his elbow hold up once he gets back? Speaking of elbows, poor old Yimi. The challenges are far from over. Good thing Lenyn Sosa is coming back.....