Stray Thoughts... - September IS THAT ALL?-ups
On Chad Green, Hyun Jin Ryu, Josh Donaldson, the Horwitz Hive, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, tha unicorn God Davis Schneider, dumb decisions, must-win games, and so much more!
The Blue Jays are in Colorado this weekend, beginning a potentially season-defining, please-for-the-love-of-all-that’s-good-in-our-miserable-lives-don’t-screw-this-up-you-bunch-of-absolute-jerks stretch that will see them face the Rockies, A’s, Royals, and Rangers over the span of 13 games in 14 days. And before that grim march kicks off, they made it official here on Friday what has been known for most of the last 24 hours. Reliever Chad Green and 1B/LF/DH Spencer Horwitz have been called up as the 27th and 28th players on their now-expanded September roster. Reliever Hagen Danner has been moved to the 60-day injured list in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Green.
With due respect to the Horwitz Hive, for me the big move here is Green, who brings yet another outstanding arm to an already loaded bullpen. ARE YOU READY FOR MORE PITCHING AND DEFENCE???
No?
Well, fair enough. Anyone who ever told you those things win championships obviously never had the misfortune of having to watch the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays.
We’re having fun, aren’t we? Here are today’s stray thoughts…
I’ll be honest here, friends. This site keeps the lights on for me, but it isn’t a cash cow. And I could live a lot more comfortably than I do right now if I was willing to put some of my work behind a paywall and push a bunch readers who are on the fence into becoming paid subscribers. But, the thing is, I know that times are tough for a lot of people and I really don’t want to become inaccessible to anyone. So, if you can afford it, and you value what I do and aren’t already a paid subscriber, I’d ask that you consider upgrading your free membership to a paid one. Thanks. — Stoeten
It ain’t easy being Green
The newly arrived Chad Green, as you surely know, has spent the entire season rehabbing as he returns from Tommy John surgery performed early last June by the Keith Meister—aka Dr. Keith Meister of Arlington, Texas.
The rehab process seems to have has gone about as well as anyone could have hoped, apart from a slight hiccup when Green was hit in the head by a throw to second base by catcher Tyler Heineman in a Triple-A game back in early August, forcing him into concussion protocol and keeping him from returning to the mound until the 16th. After that, excepting one rough go in which he surrendered a triple and home run back-to-back to Mets prospects Ronny Mauricio and Brett Baty, he’s basically looked like his usually excellent self.
Over 12 1/3 Triple-A innings, Green allowed just those two earned runs (1.46 ERA) on 10 hits and only one lonely walk. He struck out 15, and his average velocity readings in his final four appearances—the only ones I checked—all were in the 94-95 range.
That puts him a little behind where his velocity had been previously in his career, as he averaged 94.8 in his surgery-shortened 2022 and was at 95.8 the year before that. But that's close enough for me to feel good about it. And as Hyun Jin Ryu has proved so far since his return—though, dear god, do yourself a favour and do not look up his career numbers in Colorado prior to tonight’s start—a pitcher’s velocity not coming all the way back post-TJ doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t significantly benefit from the new elbow ligament.
In Green’s case, what we can infer about his command from the low walk total in Buffalo—particularly given the ABS system (i.e Automated Balls and Strikes, aka robo-umps) being used in Triple-A this year—is hopefully also indicative of that.
Green struck out 5.8 batters for every walk issued during his outstanding (3.12 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) 2021 campaign with the Yankees, but before his elbow blew out last season that was down to just 3.2. His 8.1% walk rate in 2022, though only in 15 innings, stands as the highest of his career. Sure, it's only Buffalo, but that 15:1 ratio and 2.1% walk rate are pretty good signs.
Maybe even great signs.
Green, you probably also recall, is the guy the Jays inked to that very unusual contract back in January. He's getting paid $2.25 million this season, then this winter the Jays will have to decide whether to exercise a club option that would give him an additional three years and $27 million in total (plus potential bonuses of up to $1 million per year based on games played).
Given the way their 'pen has developed this year, and the fact that they'll only get to see a month of him against big league hitters—or two *WINK*—it seems unlikely that will happen. So, at that point, Green will then have the option to choose to stay on for one more year at $6.25 million, with up to $2 million in potential bonuses for games played.
If he stays healthy for the next month and pitches reasonably well, he'll probably decline that. And so, then, the Jays will again be able to exercise a club option, this time for two years at $21 million (plus $1 million per year in potential bonuses).
Now, that could be interesting. As could the fact that the Jays have even more of a chance to shorten games with their excellent bullpen, while also still presumably getting great performances out of their rotation. They’re built for this. They just need the guy pulling the levers to make sound decisions and their batters to hit even just a little bit. WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
Take the cheap production and run
To stick with Green and his contract here for just a little longer, the thing is... will it actually be interesting to see whether or not the Jays pick up either of those options?
On Thursday night's podcast, Nick—who, I should note, did double duty podcast-wise this week, filling in for Arden Zwelling as Ben Nicholson-Smith's cohost on At the Letters—made the point that the Blue Jays as an organization seem to have a tendency to figure, "We've got the most out of this guy, let him get his money elsewhere."
Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray are certainly two examples of that. I have a hard time believing Matt Chapman isn't going to be another. It gets increasingly believable by the day that a similar sentiment could dictate how the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. story plays out. And though he's more irreplaceable and has fewer—though not zero—red flags, maybe even Bo Bichette.
Nick raised this in relation to Whit Merrifield, which I think is also probably correct. Merrifield has probably played himself into getting a nice little bag this winter from a team that will ultimately be very disappointed by their investment, but the Jays seem to have guys who have just as good a chance of lining up a few hot streaks and having a similar kind of season next year for them, at a fraction of Whit's 2024 price. Thank you for your service.
I also thought of Nick's comment when reflecting on the Yankees' release of Josh Donaldson, and his subsequent minor league deal with the Brewers. The 2015 AL MVP has produced 11.2 fWAR in five seasons since leaving the Blue Jays, which is actually quite respectable, particularly for a player’s age 33-37 seasons. He’s been paid $115 million in over that span (including the $8 million buyout on next year’s contract), which comes in on the high side of the dollars-per-WAR equation, but not disastrously so. FanGraphs says he’s produced $88.6 million worth of value since leaving Toronto, and had it just been one big contract you could probably live with that difference as the premium to get what you'd have hoped at the time were some still elite years on the front end. But, of course, there was only one great year, and it was the year he was in Atlanta on a one-year deal before signing on with Minnesota. The Twins/Yankees portion of that contract has been pretty awful—and I suspect most Yankees fans would suggest I'm putting that mildly.
So, there's another example of Atkins and Shapiro pulling this sort of move. And, despite fans' hating it at the time, they've come out the other side looking pretty good.
To get back to Green, I guess what I’m saying is I’m not sure $21 million+ for two years of him is going to be the deal on which they finally go the other way with this stuff. The safe bet is that he walks.
Oh, and, uh, on a related note... this:
Suckers they be sayin’…
A number of Jays fans have been banging the drum for quite some time now about bringing up some of the young guys who've been having very nice seasons for the Buffalo Bisons. And, in a way, who could blame them? Watching the big leaguers on the Blue Jays try to score runs this year has been more than painful enough to make any fan believe that literally anyone could do better.
Well, two are now here, with the arrival of Horwitz to go along with Davis Schneider. Ernie Clement, at 27, is a little bit older but deserves mention in that group as well. And, if you look up their numbers, clearly these guys have been among the best in the International League.
Left behind in Buffalo are Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez, names that were discussed plenty in the lead-up to the Jays’ September call-ups as well. Mostly you can understand why.
Out of 162 International League players with at least 250 PA, Horwitz ranks 8th with a 143 wRC+, Schneider (140) ranks 11th, and Clement (131) ranks 23rd. And because wRC+ is a "context neutral" number that shows a player's production relative to his peers, the caveats that need to apply when looking at number like OPS—which across Triple-A this season has been inflated by the use of the (apparently) hitter-friendly ABS system (i.e Automated Balls and Strikes, aka robo-umps)—aren't relevant.
That’s very good! And though Barger had some struggles at the start of the season, he’s come on since the All-Star break and has a 131 wRC+ over that span, identical to the 23rd ranked Clement.
Martinez, on the other hand, is at just 99 wRC+ over his 35 games in Triple-A.
But there’s another reason we haven’t seen Barger and Martinez yet, and why it’s Horwitz who’s getting the call here. MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson explained so well in his latest Inbox feature that I’ll simply give the floor over to him:
Let’s start with a “type” and throw it to manager John Schneider.
“We’re looking at a contact bat off the bench, I think,” Schneider said. “Depending on health and what we have here, position is not so much [a factor]. I think we have a lot of versatility with guys that are here. Someone that could put together a good at-bat, and it may not be on a consistent basis. That’s what we’ve been targeting.”
That points more toward of Nathan Lukes or Spencer Horwitz. Martinez (the club's No. 2 prospect per MLB Pipeline) and Barger (No. 5) have incredible potential and bring more power, but the word “contact” matters here. In the 50 games since being optioned to Triple-A Buffalo in June, Horwitz has hit .379 with a .484 on-base percentage. If the Blue Jays want a bench bat who puts the ball in play and delivers quality at-bats, it’s him.
Now, the fact that the Jays are looking for an extra bench bat doesn’t explain why Barger wouldn’t have been called up ahead of, say, Mason McCoy, or even Santiago Espinal, but the fact that he’s not anybody’s idea of a shortstop does. Yet, with Clement, Espinal, McCoy, and—for some reason!—Cavan Biggio on the roster and deemed playable at short, does that really matter?
Why not try to get the same kind of jolt from Horwitz—who will start from the bench in Colorado here on Friday—or Barger or Clement as the club did from Schneider by actually playing them?
For me, there are two reasons. One is that… well… take a look at some of the other names at the top of that International League leaderboard.
The top bat is Luken Baker (178 wRC+), a 26-year-old 1B/DH in the Cardinals' system who has a ridiculous .334/.439/.720 line in Triple-A this year, but so far in 41 big league plate appearances has put up just a 33 wRC+.
Jake Cave of the Phillies trails him with a 171 mark in the IL, which is where he spent May through most of July. On either side of that demotion he's been putting up an 86 wRC+ in Philadelphia, which is actually slightly better than his previous three years with the Twins.
The Rays' Jonathan Aranda comes next; he's got an 80 wRC+ over 121 MLB plate appearances. Christian Encarnacion-Strand of the Reds so far has just an 85 wRC+ in 151 MLB PA. Iván Herrera had very a nice cup of coffee with the Cardinals for three weeks (though is just at 69 wRC+ in 48 measly PA in the majors for his career), before being sent back down when backup catcher Andrew Knizner returned to full health in late July. The Jays saw some of Orioles outfield prospect Colton Cowser in August, before he was sent back down after being unable to replicate his 144 wRC+ in the big leagues (38 wRC+ in 77 PA). Bobby Dalbec (134), Miguel Andujar (134), Nico Goodrum (133), Keston Hiura (146), and Franchy Cordero (138) are also some Quad-A types who reside ahead of these theoretical Jays sparkplugs on this leaderboard.
That's not to say that these Jays hitters are exactly those same guys. It's particularly impressive when young players are able to have success when they're seeing pitching this advanced for the first time. It's just... I think there's a disconnect between what fans see there and what the industry sees, and understanding some of this context hopefully helps to bridge that gap.
Another part of the disconnect, I think, is what an absolute, unbelievable unicorn Schneider has been. And, not to tsk tsk, but it takes something away from how astounding the start of his career has been when we allow ourselves to think that it's in any way replicable.
Hell, I spent some time earlier digging into some numbers trying to get some answers as to how he’s done what he’s done—especially after seeing (thanks to @CespedesBBQ) his incredibly impressive estimated percentile rankings on the new player pages at Baseball Savant…
…—and it’s just really hard to put your finger on it.
This, for example, is just wild to me:
I mean, who’s to say that the Jays couldn’t catch lightning in a bottle again? But I tend to think it’s smarter to trust the guys with actual big league track records of success to get their acts together.
(Very) Quickly…
• Hazel Mae reports from Denver that Bo Bichette is with the club this weekend, was seen doing some running drills on the field, ramped up his workout today, and “could return when he’s eligible to come off the IL.” If my ability to count is correct, he could do so in time for the start of the Royals series next weekend.
• On the less completely normal injury/not-playing-for-some-reason front, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tells us that Alek Manoah still hasn’t thrown off of a mound since joining the Bisons in Syracuse nearly a week ago. Manager John Schneider calls it “a natural build back up.” I, on the other hand, call it bullshit.
• Please beat the Rockies (three times, and then the A’s three times, and then the Royals three times, and then the Rangers four times).
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Just love reading your takes. But, man, posting after the game started!?🤔