Taijuan Walker signs with the Mets
Welp. It seems like a reunion between the Jays and Taijuan Walker isn’t going to happen, as the right-hander who pitched so well for them down the stretch last year has signed a two-year, $20 million deal (with a player option for a third year) to join the New York Mets.
In historical context, that’s maybe not a great deal for a 28-year-old free agent pitcher coming off a 2.70 ERA season, but looks better when you remember that 2020 was a “season” in name only, Walker spent most of 2018 and 2019 hurt, and his peripherals didn’t match his results. It’s being discussed as a two-year deal, but because the potential third year is a player option, it’s really not that. It’s a fairly long-term commitment, and one I think it’s understandable for the Blue Jays not to have made.
Sure, it was just over a year ago that the Jays paid more money over two years to a worse pitcher in Tanner Roark, but the two situations are obviously quite different. The Jays felt a guy like Roark was needed to raise the floor among their starting pitching group, and paid a premium ensure they got him. It looks bad now, but don’t forget that Roark had the look of a very durable, very average pitcher. With so many question marks a year ago — especially when it wasn’t yet clear that they were going to land Hyun Jin Ryu — even if you (fairly) didn’t believe much in Roark, giving that money to him made at least a little bit of sense.
That’s not to say paying Walker what the Mets have, or more, wouldn’t have made sense. But it’s hard to know for sure what Walker is. Last season went about as well as one could imagine for him, yet there are still questions hanging over him. His strand rate was on the high side. His strikeout rate, though the best mark of any full season of his career, was below league average. You could see him as a pitcher on the rise finally free from injury and ready to look like the guy who was a top prospect in the early part of his career. Or you could see him as a guy who, if he was around in 2022 and 2023, could end up slipping behind guys like Ross Stripling, Trent Thornton, Julian Merryweather, Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, Patrick Murphy, Simeon Woods Richardson, Alek Manoah, etc.
It would have been great for the Blue Jays to ride with him again for another season to see if he can keep on being a guy whose results belie some suspect peripherals, but I agree with those in charge that the idea just isn't nearly as appealing when the commitment grows to potentially three years (though I'm happy for Taijuan that he got paid).
The other thing about that, though, is that the Jays shouldn’t let perfect be the enemy of good here. PECOTA isn’t the only projection game in town, but right now they have the Jays allowing 832 runs this season — slightly ahead of Baltimore, behind Detroit, and fifth worst in the American League. Other systems are kinder (or more opaque about it), but it’s safe to say that the team objectively needs more help in the rotation. That could absolutely come in the form of some of their younger guys, but one more potentially fully-formed big league quality arm sure would be nice. And I’m not sure that being too cute about the price is the right move.
Last winter the Jays reportedly went hard after Jake Odorizzi, trying to get him to forgo the qualifying offer he’d been given by the Minnesota Twins. He instead chose to bet on himself, with disastrous results, but the fact that the Jays were even willing to try says a lot. Not only would they have had to guarantee him more than $18-odd million, they likely would have had to make him a multi-year offer and give up a draft pick if they eventually got him to sign with them.
Odorizzi’s camp clearly figured that the draft pick issue would hurt his market and took the Twins’ Q.O. Then went out and made just four starts in 2020, thanks to a back injury, a comebacker he took to the chest, a blister, and, of course, COVID-19. He was undeniably awful when on the field, but the velocity gains he made in his breakout 2019 held, and there seems to be decent enough reason to throw last year out of the equation.
Or, at least, to still really want him on a short-term deal in the hope that he’ll go back to looking like it’s 2019, in which case he would significantly improve the rotation. I'm not sure how much better 2020 Taijuan Walker is than Kay or Hatch, etc.; 2019 Odorizzi was better than all but 17 starters in baseball by fWAR, and 26 by bWAR.
It has seemed from reports this winter that Odorizzi is the lingering free agent starter most adamant about getting a multi-year deal. It has also seemed like the Jays have been less often connected to in him than they were Walker or James Paxton. Those two things may be related. The Jays, it must be said, may be approaching their budget limit. Or at least starting to think they might be better served by holding their money until the trade deadline and then fishing for a big ticket starter at that point (provided they’re still in the race).
It would be disappointing if the Blue Jays were to go so far as to add George Springer and Marcus Semien to their offence while leaving so many question marks in their rotation. They’d be opening the door wide to an opportunity potentially missed. Yes, 2022 and beyond matters, probably more than 2021 does. But these are prime years for your most expensive players, none of whom is a spring chicken in baseball terms, and a rare year in which the Red Sox will still be mediocre and the Rays have taken a clear step back (and aren’t yet likely to have uber-prospect Wander Franco). A little bit more help could go a very long way.
Hopefully the Jays have simply been playing this right, and Odorizzi’s market is now soft enough for them to go out and get him at their price. But it’s not at all clear that that’s what’s happening here. I guess we’ll simply have to wait and see what comes next.
Jays GM Ross Atkins will meet with the media here on Friday morning, and hopefully we get some answers from that. More importantly, hopefully we get the answers we want and the 2021 Blue Jays season deserves.
Top image: Screengrab via YouTube/Sportsnet
Walker has no better career ERA than Roark (3.84 to 3.83). He's younger, but unlike Roark who has been a workhorse, has only pitched 150 innings once since 2015. But Roark is certainly relevant to the conversation because I don't think the Jays want to repeat that mistake. The Mets are on the hook for $20MM for two seasons, and $23MM if Walker rides them out for 3. I find it easy to see why the Blue Jays didn't make that commitment to Taijuan Walker. Lots of teams need pitching, like the Yankees and the Angels, but no one else wanted Walker for that amount either.
I didn't find Walker all that appealing to watch, and frankly I'm happy we did not give him two years or more.
His career numbers are pretty good in the aggregate, but I found his pace on the mound and his tendency to nibble around the zone and create long at-bats reminded of post 2016 Aaron Sanchez. And, as a previous poster posted, he doesn't really have the "workhorse" innings totals or vibes I think this team needs. He looks like one hell of a physical specimen, but his delivery to me seems a bit wonky and twisty-turny and very max effort.