The hot stove was boiling on Monday!
Jays linked to Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, and more from a busy day of deals and speculation.
Could the Blue Jays actually be a landing spot for Freddie Freeman? Are the Jays looking at Kyle Schwarber as an alternative to Freeman or as an additional potential piece? Whither Joey Votto? How on earth did Josh Donaldson end up on the stupid Yankees? What can other deals being made tell us about the prices on the trade market? Why are AL East clubs mad at the Jays over the border issue, rather than their own dumb, unvaccinated players?
I don’t know the answer to all of these questions, but let’s talk about it!
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A’s trade 1B Matt Olson to the Braves
That’s right, we’re not going to start with the juiciest Jays-related rumour du jour. We’ll definitely get to the Freddie Freeman thing, but before we do that we should talk about why it even seems possible that Freeman could end up in Toronto. The Braves, who are, of course, run by former Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, seem to have decided to get out of the Freeman business, choosing instead to send a hefty package of prospects to the Oakland A’s for first baseman Matt Olson.
The Braves fans I follow on Twitter seem mostly happy about this turn of events, seemingly having long ago resigned themselves to the fact that club owners Liberty Media were not going to pony up to extend the 12-year stay of Freeman, the 2020 NL MVP and a player who led them on an extremely lucrative run to the 2021 World Series crown. Olson is an outstanding replacement for Freeman — his 5.0 WAR in 2020 topped Freeman’s 4.5 mark, and was second among MLB first basemen to only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (6.7) — but I don’t think I could be so OK with it if I were a Braves fan. Especially knowing that this is a team that took in $568 million in revenue in 2021.
Like, you really can’t keep your fan favourite, team leader, face of the franchise, former MVP first baseman coming off of a World Series win just a few months ago??? Instead you have to trade four prospects — including two pretty highly regarded ones: Cristian Pache, who needs to hit just a little bit to be a pretty strong regular because of his elite CF glove, and Shane Langeliers, a catcher who is also firmly in just about everybody’s top 100 — so you can pay a guy less? That sucks, man.
But enough about the Braves, because that’s not why we’re here. Olson is two years from free agency and is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $12 million this year. That’s pretty similar to the situation his now-former teammate Matt Chapman, who is also two years from free agency and is projected to make $9.5 million in 2021. Cleveland’s José Ramírez will make $11 million this year and $13 million next year, before he too reaches free agency.
Ramírez is coming off a 6.3 WAR season, while Chapman was at 3.4 (though he’s projected to 4.8 per ZiPS), so obviously there will be some variety in the value that can be expected to come back should their teams choose to trade either of those guys, but the package for Olson here is probably a good comparable — and maybe something the Jays are going to strongly consider. Does something like Alejandro Kirk, Jordan Groshans, and a couple of lottery ticket arms sound similar enough? I’d say so (give or take an Orelvis Martinez).
Freddie Freeman madness
Could the Blue Jays actually sign Freddie Freeman? I honestly don’t know. Should they sign him? To that question I think the answer has to be an emphatic yes.
True, it’s a weird fit. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is already entrenched at first base and likely won’t be asked to go play third base regularly (though Miguel Cabrera did exactly that, at age 29, when the Tigers signed Prince Fielder in 2012; they went to the World Series that year). George Springer is undoubtedly going to need some DH at-bats over the course of the year, as will Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernández occasionally. That will be trickier with a pair of can’t-take-his-bat-out-of-the-lineup first basemen on the roster. Adding another expensive contract with potential mega-extensions for Guerrero and Bo Bichette looming is tricky too. And yet! Signing an MVP-calibre, high on-base, left-handed hitting slugger who would add perfect balance to the Jays’ heavily right-handed lineup would be an incredible coup. No need to overthink it!
The other details? For me it’s a matter of not letting perfect be the enemy of good. If Freeman is available to these Blue Jays and the financials work with their long-term plans, why on earth not? I’m certainly not about to talk myself out of an incredibly fun idea just because not an exactly perfect one. Don’t get me wrong, I’d still prefer Ramírez, because I think that fit is clearly much better. But spending Rogers’ money — as long as there’s still enough left over for Vlad and Bo down the line — is better than trading away prospects, and we’re in an era where the three true outcomes have made it harder than ever to make a difference on defence anyway, so I honestly think it could work.
Whether the Blue Jays believe that is another matter, but on Monday it sure felt like they really did. The Braves are clearly out. The Yankees are reportedly pessimistic. Meanwhile we had MLB.com’s Mark Bowman saying the Jays have “remained aggressive” with Freeman; the New York Post’s Joel Sherman calling the Jays a “stalking horse” on him and saying other teams perceive they have the dollars to make another big splash yet; MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggesting the Jays have “conveyed serious interest” in Freeman; Shi Davidi of Sportsnet suggesting he’s “heard maybe there’s even a scenario” where they get both Freeman and Kyle Schwarber; Michael Kay of YES saying he’s hearing Freeman to Toronto; and more.
Then there was Carlos Baerga. The three-time All-Star, who was the first to report on the Jays signing Marcus Semien, Yimi Garcia, and the José Berríos extension, said on Instagram that Freeman is coming to the Jays. Sort of.
Per Instagram's translation, on an image of Freeman he wrote: “Well, my people, this is hot. Of these three team, I understand that from today to tomorrow he will be signing with the Toronto Blue Jays. Remember that he is Canadian. What do you think or where will he sign?"
That he asked that last question is a pretty good indication that he’s not necessarily reporting anything as concrete as the earlier part of the message implied. Still, this got imaginations running a bit wild among Jays fans — and understandably so. Especially when Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was spotted replying to the post, while Vlad Jr. gave it a like.
Baerga, however, made it clear in the English portions of an Instagram Live session on Monday night, that he’s certainly not reporting a deal is done. “Freeman to Toronto? He might go there. He might.”
Still, there’s seemingly something to this. In a Monday evening piece for Sportsnet, Davidi wrote:
“The Blue Jays, according to an industry source, have been poking around on Freeman all off-season and some of their players have discussed how well he’d fit among them. The club’s also been hot on the trail of another free-agent lefty slugger, Kyle Schwarber, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported Sunday night, and they’ve been ambitious enough to consider the possibility of adding both, although other moves would be needed to make it work.”
I would still expect that he’ll end up with the Dodgers — Jays fans shouldn’t be convincing themselves that this is really going to happen — but clearly the Jays are trying to be major players in this post-lockout transaction frenzy. For the time being, it sure is a hell of a lot of fun!
Schwarber too!
Kyle Schwarber is another lefty slugger who would look very good in the middle of the Blue Jays' lineup, and he comes with the added bonus of fitting the Jays' roster a little bit better than Freeman. Primarily a DH, Schwarber is at least adequate enough with the glove to slide into left field, or to first base, on occasional days when someone else needs a rest.
The bigger problem with him is in his track record as a hitter. His 143 wRC+ in 2021 was incredible, though it was powered in part by a ridiculous 16 home run June. In previous years he hasn't fared nearly as well, posting an 89 wRC+ in 2020, and marks of 119, 115, and 103 in the three seasons prior to that. He takes his walks, but has a career strikeout rate of 27.8%, so has generally been a boom-or-bust kind of guy (compared to the much more complete hitting Freeman, who hasn’t posted a strikeout rate above 20% since 2016, and whose career wRC+ is 138; Schwarber’s is 118).
Thing is, there’s no shame in not being Freeman. Schwarber is a good hitter and would be a powerful addition to these Jays — who are, according to Jon Heyman, “making a big push” for him. There’s even some upside still there, potentially, despite his being somewhat similar to some of the guys the Jays already have.
I don’t think that adding a lefty who can play just about every single day is a necessity for these Jays — if their hitters are good enough, it’s OK if they tilt so heavily to the right side (and last year certainly bore that out) — but Schwarber would certainly give this lineup a different dimension from the left side.
How about a little Joey Votto?
If we’re talking about adding left-handed hitters who maybe aren’t ideal defensive fits for the Jays — and we are! — why not revisit the idea we’ve been hearing about over and over and over for more than a decade in Toronto: prying Etobicoke native Joey Votto away from the Reds.
It might not even be that difficult at this point!
Cincinnati went into full-on joke organization mode on Monday, trading All-Star outfielder Jesse Winkler to the Seattle Mariners in a deal with the primary purpose of shedding the $35 million remaining on the contract of slugging third baseman Eugenio Suárez. The Reds have now moved out salary in the form of Wade Miley, Sonny Gray, and these two, tearing down an 83-win team that would have made the playoffs in 2021 if the new 12-team format had been in place just to save some bucks. Glad they tried to address teams tanking in the new CBA, but I’m already starting to think the addition of a draft lottery isn’t going to get the job done!
Votto has a full no-trade clause in his contract and has always maintained that he’s not interested in moving, but this time could actually be different. He’s clearly not thrilled with the new direction of the only organization he’s ever played for.
Votto can still get it done at the plate, posting a 140 wRC+ in 2021 after taking a bit of a dip in the previous two years. He’s also coming to the end of a long-term contract that really doesn’t look so bad — he’s owed $25 million for each of the next two seasons, then has a $20 million club option for 2024 with a $7 million buyout.
Those numbers fit the Jays’ financial picture better than a fresh, long-term deal with Freeman would. The Reds, even with all the payroll they’ve already shed, may be motivated sellers. And Votto may, finally, be thinking about trying to win a title before his career comes to a close. Where better to do it than in his hometown? The cost for the Jays would likely be minimal if they’re willing to take on all that money, too.
The Blue Jays should definitely be making a phone call, if they haven’t already. Ultimately, though, Votto has earned the right to call the shots here.
I don’t wish more pain to be inflicted on Reds fans here, because their happily bottom-feeding ownership clearly sucks a whole hell of a lot, but if we — and the Jays — are willing to entertain the idea of Freeman, why not Votto? It’s a pretty great idea!
Josh Donaldson plays for the New York Yankees?
In a move that was decidedly less exiting for Blue Jays fans, one of the best and most-liked players of the team’s 2015-16 era, Josh Donaldson, was sent by the Minnesota Twins to the stupid New York Yankees in a deal on Sunday night.
Rude!
Donaldson, the 2015 MVP, will be joined in New York by infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who had recently been acquired from the Rangers by the Twins) and catcher Ben Rortvedt. Going the other way are catcher Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela (a former Jays infielder who somehow turned into a very good player for the Yankees for a couple of years there).
Extremely rude!
Despite the rudeness of the deal, though, there are aspects of it that Jays fans might actually like somewhat. First of all, Donaldson is still a dangerous hitter, having put up a 124 wRC+ in 2021, but he’s no longer the guy we all remember and love. He’s also struggled to stay on the field since his disastrous 2017 season with the Jays, and in 2021 produced a negative UZR at third base for the first time in his career (-6.2 runs).
Better still, this may be a signal that the Yankees aren’t going to take a run at high-priced free agent shortstop Carlos Correa, as Kiner-Falefa looks to be their new everyday guy at short (at least until highly regarded prospect Anthony Volpe takes over). With the team reportedly being pessimistic on Freeman, and having missed out on Matt Olson to address their first base situation, they may even be done making significant additions. If that’s the case, while they’re still a very good team, I’m not sure they’re a great one. They’re seemingly avoiding long-term commitments and using stopgaps to wait for prospects to arrive, and in this deal have also lowered their ceiling behind the plate (though, adminttedly, Gary Sánchez probably really did need a change of scenery).
They may have another big, bad Yankees move in them yet, but so far this winter a real blockbuster hasn’t materialized and it’s getting harder to see where it’s going to come from. I’m not suggesting anyone start laughing in their direction yet — if nothing else, there’s nothing funny about having to watch Donaldson in pinstripes — but they’re not quite as scary at the moment as they’ve been in other seasons.
Quickly
• The Yankees and the Red Sox, who each employ multiple unvaccinated players, spent some time on the weekend whining about the rules that will prohibit those players from travelling to Canada. According to a piece from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, this is a change from 2021 (when unvaccinated pro athletes could enter the country under a “national interest exemption”) that came to light for many players during the recent CBA negotiations. Per language now enshrined in the CBA, players won’t only be unable to enter Canada if unvaccinated, they’ll also be put on the restricted list, thus losing both pay and service time for games missed. Lol. Lmao.
It’s worth noting here that this rule is not unique to Canada, as foreign travellers entering the United States also require vaccination. It’s also worth noting that if these loser teams are seriously going to be upset about being potentially disadvantaged by this rule, they should probably take a look at how many games the Jays played in goddamn Buffalo and Dunedin over the last two years. There’s an easy solution to this conundrum here, Yankees and Red Sox. Get your dumbshit players vaxxed and stop crying already!
• Man alive, it was announced on Monday that Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. showed up at camp with a broken wrist that could require surgery and keep him out for up to three months. Worse, there's a chance that Tatis suffered the break in one of his multiple motorcycle accidents over the winter.
Not great, Bob! Might want to get the young man a driver there, eh Padres? (Hey, and maybe the league should think about not locking out their players, thus depriving them from team-based medical coverage that could have spotted an injury like this before the player showed up in camp!)
• Padres fans though they might at least be getting a bit of good news to balance out the bad on Monday, when reports from Japan surfaced suggesting that NPB slugger Seiya Suzuki had decided to go to San Diego. Unfortunately for them, those reports were refuted — including by Suzuki himself.
There was some thought early in the winter that the Jays might have some strong interest in Suzuki, but so far the focus of most Jays rumors/signings has been either related to pitching or guys who hit from the left side. Their name hasn’t been linked to Suzuki for quite some time, as far as I’ve seen. Intriguing talent, though. And clearly a bit of a character. I wouldn’t say no!
• Another player the Jays could chase, but seemingly haven’t been as strong on as the likes of Freeman and Schwarber, is former Cubs and Giants third baseman Kris Bryant. Though he’s not the player he was in the early years of his career, Bryant bounced back from a rough 2020 to post a 124 wRC+ in 2021 (though he faded somewhat in September and had a brutal month of June). The Jays could end up in the market for his services yet, but at the moment the most we’re hearing is that the Rockies are reportedly “aggressively pursuing” him for some reason. That doesn’t really seem like a likely destination for a guy who, despite carrying some risk, but plays adequate defence, can slide to the outfield occasionally, and has a pretty decent bat. He can help a contender. Say no to the Rockies, Kris!
• Lastly, as Shi reported way back on Friday, the Blue Jays have signed left-handed reliever Andrew Vasquez to a major league contract. That's a little bit surprising, given that they already have lefties Tim Mayza, Ryan Borucki, Kirby Snead, and Tayler Saucedo slated for the bullpen (or Buffalo), and also considering that Vasquez has just 6 2/3 big league innings under his belt. However, he has a minor league option year remaining, so that "major league deal" may put him on the 40-man but not necessarily give him a guaranteed bullpen spot.
He also consistently produces some pretty spectacular strikeout numbers, and fanned 82 in 50 innings between Triple-A stints for the Twins and Dodgers in 2021, plus his brief spell with L.A. Clearly the Jays like what they see — as did the Dodgers, who acquired him (per MLBTR) just in time last year to ensure he was eligible to be on their playoff roster, though he didn’t end up pitching in the postseason for them. We’ll see how it goes, I guess!
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Not a bit interested in all the risky expensive older players. Freeman, Schwarber, Votto, or any of the others. The Jays should be focused on the fact that the monster talent is already on the team. I wish we were seeing more focus on the less splashy deals that would shore up our defence and pitching staff, or add more young talented players with potential. Super utility guys with good defence we've already passed up would have been great. McHugh and Chafin would be great to add to the pitching core.
It certainly is nice to have real baseball things to read about!