The Jays lose ugly in St. Louis
On Charlie's choices, impotent offence, which players need a call-up, which players need to go, Berríos, Manoah, Chapman, Pearson, Buehrle, Jordan Hicks, and more.
Despite being one of the few fortunate people in my area with power restored, I was not lying on Monday night when I tweeted that I was going to turn the TV off in disgust if the Jays didn’t score a run in the top of the 10th inning. Little did I know things would get so interesting from there.
So, uh, I guess we need to talk about it. Here’s Three “Up”…
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Down: Sorry, who was pitching in the 10th???
Now, I don’t want to overstate this, because as the tweet I refer to above makes abundantly clear, I felt the game was already lost when the Jays were unable to cash the free runner on second base in the top half of the tenth, but… um… what the fuck?
I didn’t love the decision to not have anyone ready to immediately take over for José Berríos in the bottom of the seventh, despite the fact that he was in the middle of facing the Cardinals’ lineup for the third time. I didn’t like the decision to go to the freshly recalled Julian Merryweather to face the Cardinals’ 4-5-6 hitters in a tie game in the ninth, but I at least came around to the idea that closer Jordan Romano is the best option to bring into an extra innings situation because he is easily the Jays reliever most likely to strike someone out and keep that runner from advancing. I hated (to learn after the fact) that when the bottom of the tenth actually did arrive, it wasn’t Romano but David Phelps on the hill, with Romano instead being held back for a save situation that would never come — an obviously terrible idea that has been understood as obvious and terrible by the kinds of Smart Baseball Guys the Jays are supposed to employ for at least a decade.
For example, an October 2013 piece from Neil Weinberg of Beyond the Box Score on this very issue made it plain that the then-common practice of saving your closer for a save situation in a tie game on the road was already well understood to be stupid as hell.
Most regular readers likely know that "saves" are a silly statistic and that modern closer usage is quite ridiculous. Managers cater their decisions to the notion that it requires a special pitcher to handle the final three outs of a game if the team is leading by three runs or fewer. If you read that out loud and think about it, you'll go insane. The assumptions contained in the closer mythology include that: the ninth inning is inherently different from the others, the highest leverage situation is always the ninth, that a three run lead is different from a four run lead no matter the opponent, and that your closer will only perform well in save situations.
And the we get this as the justification from the manager after the game!
Cue the collective reaction of Jays Twitter after reading that:
Charlie is his own worst enemy when it comes to messaging sometimes, and this is a prime example. What he’s saying here makes absolutely no sense. The only extra inning game in Houston he can be referring to was April 24th, an 8-7 10th-inning loss on a Jeremy Peña home run served up by Romano. It was not a tie game when Romano entered that one, as the Jays had taken the lead in the top half of the frame, so they did not “do” the thing that he’s saying “didn’t work out” at all! Trent Thornton pitched the ninth inning of that game! He did save his closer for a save that may not have ever happened and by the skin of Trent Thornton’s teeth he managed to get Romano into that spot!
And you know what? Awful as that loss was, I promise you it felt better to go down with the team’s best reliever on the mound rather than to know he was watching helplessly like the rest of us from the comfort of the bullpen.
Now, again, I thought this game was already lost because of how bad the offence continues to be. I also would say that Phelps did a pretty decent job, striking out a pair of Cardinals before issuing a two-out walk to Tommy Edman. Additionally, I think that going to Borucki at that point, within the bad logic of the Jays' bench (i.e. if you're not going to go to Romano), was a defensible move. Edmundo Sosa isn't a left-handed hitter, but has struggled much more with lefties than righties, both this season (53 wRC+) and throughout his career (79 wRC+).
And Borucki, despite some ugly overall numbers, has had some very encouraging outings this month, provided we ignore the shaky one he had in Cleveland when he first returned from an IL stint due to a blister. Heading into Monday night, Borucki had allowed just two hits, no walks, and one run in his previous six appearances (three innings total). Sure, Paul Goldschmidt has destroyed left-handers this season (.536 average, 357 wRC+), but Borucki was there to get Sosa. He did not.
Is bungling this a fireable offence? Obviously not even close. Not only is the offence far more to blame in this one, Montoyo and his lieutenants have done a pretty great job managing through a ton of one-run games so far this season. Plus, the Jays know they hired a manager from a generation for whom a move like this is second nature and seem to be a whole lot more at peace with it than fans are. That is understandable, I think, given how much of the behind-the-scenes stuff the club sees — the stuff they really value — and how little we do.
We’ve also seen from the way the team is employing defensive shifts this year that Charlie is not opposed to newfangled ways of thinking about things if the club makes an effort to impel him to do so.
“Before we do it, [the front office has to] come here and explain to me why we're doing it," Montoyo told David Adler of MLB.com earlier this month, regarding the shifts. "We don't do it just to do it. If they have a good explanation why we're doing it, then I'm good with it. And the times we've done it, it's been a good explanation. … There's numbers that say why we're doing it, and so far, we're doing it because I agree with it."
Might be time to show Charlie a certain Beyond the Box Score piece, Ross!
Down: On the farm could there be someone who can help this bloody offence??
The adjustments to the lineup on Monday night, which saw Santiago Espinal move up to the two-spot, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sandwiched between him and Bo Bichette, made some sense, but it didn’t really go far enough. While we’re not quite at a point where the Jays need to worry about the season slipping away — though I’m sure many fans would insist that we are — it does feel like some hard decisions may have to be made in the very near future. And certainly need to at least be getting discussed within the walls of the front office.
The roster an influx of talent from Buffalo, where a number of hitters are doing quite well. Problem is, the decisions that will get us to that point are difficult ones less because the talent down there isn’t intriguing, but instead because of a host of ancillary things.
The Jays obviously want to avoid stunting the development of some of their young prospects. They surely want to avoid making the wrong decisions with 40-man spots and potentially losing talented players they don’t have to. And when it comes to a guy like the struggling Raimel Tapia, there’s a financial component to be considered too.
Still, they’re going to have to do something, right? Right???
Before we try to figure out just what the hell should be done here, let’s look at the players who are options to either be added to or removed from the Jays’ roster.
• Gabriel Moreno is on fire this month, slashing .431/.500/.569 (194 wRC+) since the start of May. We're only talking about 51 plate appearances, and his April was a poor (74 wRC+) as he caught up to the rest of his peers following a delayed spring training, but we know he's a top prospect and a guy the Jays love. The problem with bringing him up is that he’s at a stage of his development where he needs to play regularly, but with Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk already here that's going to be difficult.
• Jordan Groshans has quietly been the Bisons' best hitter in 2022, slashing .356/.452/.407 overall (142 wRC+) and producing a 149 wRC+ here in May. The lack of power is a concern though, as is the fact that, like Moreno, he also needs playing time — and would require someone's 40-man spot, too, were he to be called up.
• Samad Taylor has, unfortunately, cooled off of late. He's slashing just .274/.303/.387 in May (80 wRC+), which is a shame because, even though he hits from the right side of the plate and doesn’t have a 40-man spot, he'd be an interesting option. Taylor can play both the infeld and outfield, so that would make him more useful than the Jays’ current right-handed bench option, Vinny Capra. Especially if the April version of his bat returns.
• Nathan Lukes is a left-handed hitting outfielder who has produced better in May (138 wRC+) than Capra did prior to his call-up (132 wRC+). Unfortunately for Lukes, there are two left-handed outfielders already on the Jays' bench, and he lacks a 40-man spot. I think he opened some eyes in spring, but probably not a game-changer here.
• Logan Warmoth continues to hit well (139 wRC+), but has logged just six innings on the infield this year and also lacks a 40-man spot.
• Cavan Biggio has walked in more than 25% of his 35 plate appearances for the Bisons so far, and struck out in just 14.3%. He's slashing .269/.457/.385, which gives him a 138 wRC+, but that lack of power is going to be a problem against MLB-calibre pitching, especially since the on-base skills will definitely take step back once he makes the jump back to the majors. He's got a 40-man spot, though!
• Vinny Capra has only picked up seven plate appearances in the big leagues so far, so the 25-year-old definitely doesn't fit the Jays' idea of a prospect who needs playing time. He's acquitted himself fairly well, at least, picking up a single, a pair of walks, and striking out just once. Perhaps he needs to see a little more action, as he hit very well in his repeat year at Double-A in 2021, and this year so far has proven very difficult to strike out.
• Bradley Zimmer had a nice little two-double game against the Reds over the weekend, and picked up a hit in St. Louis on Monday as well, but still has just a 28 wRC+ this season. His glove is elite, and he's got speed, but isn't he the kind of guy who will always be available later on in the season? The Jays picked up Mallex Smith and Jarrod Dyson for nothing at the end of last season. Do they really need to carry a guy like Zimmer, who is out of options, the whole year?
• Raimel Tapia is, I think, a victim of MLB's dead ball. Don't get me wrong, he's not been fun to watch, and he's somehow been worse in May (33 wRC+) than he was in April (66 wRC+). But he's done a great job of cutting back on groundballs — going from a 67.4% GB rate last year to 45.9% — and so far has a career high barrel rate, a career high hard hit rate, and his second highest ever average exit velocity, despite previously having played for years in the thin air of Colorado. Unfortunately, I don't know if he has enough raw power to make it all work given the state of the ball. Tapia is slugging .276, but has an expected slugging percentage of .410. He's batting .228, but has an expected batting average of .264. His wOBA is .239, but his xwOBA is .300. He's a better hitter than he's showed, and the fact that he's making $3.95 million guaranteed, and that the Jays are also paying Colorado $5.4 million this year and $4.3 million next year for Randal Grichuk (who Tapia was acquired for in March), may give him a reprieve. But how long are we going to really have to watch him slap his way into outs while waiting for the ball to get a little more juice?
OK, so what can be done about this? Not a whole lot! There’s no perfect move here. There’s no 3D chess to be played, I don’t think. Orelvis Martinez has been better in May (.254/.353/.576, 8.8 BB%, 25.0 K%, 153 wRC+) than in April, but he isn't the saviour this team needs at age 20 with just one good Double-A month under his belt.
There is, however, a move worth making here, I think. It’s a simple one, and it will have drawbacks and detractors, but it’s the one I think I’m about ready for.
Call up Gabriel Moreno and Cavan Biggio, option Vinny Capra to Buffalo, designate Bradley Zimmer for assignment.
I told you it wasn’t perfect! I’d really like to see Biggio hit for some more power before deciding he’s ready to return, but with Zach Collins now in the minors, the Jays really could use a lefty bat that isn’t Tapia or Zimmer, and I think Biggio has to be it.
The Jays would probably prefer to keep Biggio down for longer and try to make this one of those clearly temporary “he never has to go back to the minors again” situations — like when they demoted Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in 2019. I, however, am not really worried about that. If he stinks, he stinks and can go back down as needed — and with Zimmer off the roster, that at least gives the Jays the flexibility to bring someone else up, if it comes to it.
Mostly though, at the moment — if I may damn Mr. Biggio with some seriously faint praise — I just think he’s just a more attractive option than what they’ve got.
Yes, I’m sacrificing defence in a big way here, and it might ultimately mean some games where we’d see Teoscar Hernández in centre field, with Biggio in a corner and Tapia on the bench. But I’m OK with that! Especially because I think those situations will become rarer with the promotion of Moreno, as he will have to catch at least a couple times a week, which will cut into Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk’s time behind the plate, and make all three more frequent DH options.
It probably isn't ideal to cut back on George Springer's potential DH time — a spot he's been in 11 times in 42 games so far this year — but you know what? Maybe it's about time that stopped anyway. Zimmer and Tapia aren't the problem, but they're a problem. And they’re a fixable problem. They've played in all but three of the Jays’ 20 games in May. And Tyler Heineman played in one of those three!
Obviously injuries will dictate a lot of this stuff, but I don't know. I'm thinking that maybe occasionally having too much firepower on the bench is better than constantly having too little of it in the lineup. Even at the expense of some defence!
And while it will obviously also not be ideal for Moreno to lose reps, to have to DH a lot, and for Kirk and Jansen to further split their roles, we've seen this year that Kirk has done a great job catching up defensively and overcoming the stunted growth he experienced because of his too-early call-up. Let's maybe not let perfect be the enemy of good here. The Jays aren't good enough right now, and the less Zimmer and Tapia (and Collins — who, it's worth noting, had an 11 wRC+ and a 48.6% strikeout rate over his final 35 plate appearances before being sent to Buffalo — and Heineman) the better.
Call him up!
Up: Lmao
The Blue Jays are, somewhat hilariously, still occupying a playoff spot after this one. It sure doesn’t feel like it, does it? Seems to me this might be a reason to believe the league has added too many playoff teams but, actually, under last year’s format they would be just 2.5 games back with more than four months to go in the season.
We’ll take it!
Other notes
• He may have been left in a couple batters too long, but it was a nice night for José Berríos. Three runs on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings, with no walks and seven strikeouts. Take away that disastrous seventh and it's just one earned run over six on four hits with no walks and seven strikeouts. There wasn't a ton of swing-and-miss, nor a ton of called strikes, but he obviously made his pitches when it mattered.
• Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that Nate Pearson is officially beginning a rehab assignment with Dunedin later in the week, after having thrown a bullpen on Monday. You can get Statcast data from D-Jays games, so that should be interesting to follow. Could use a guy like the best version of Pearson in the bullpen at the moment!
• Alek Manoah reports that it's either him or Matt Chapman who does the most damage to the Blue Jays' pre-game spread!
• It’s not only the Blue Jays who are struggling offensively — though knowing that doesn’t exactly make these performances from them any more entertaining!
• You gotta love seeing Mark Buehrle in the house for a Jays game, even if he’s giving off some serious Millionaire Country Artist No One Has Ever Heard Of vibes.
• At 98 mph on average, tonight’s Cardinals starter, Jordan Hicks, throws the ball hard — though not as hard as he did prior to last year, when he logged just 10 innings due to a forearm issue, and would regularly average 101 mph. That’s turning out to be a trend for these Jays, and certainly isn’t likely to be contributing to their offensive woes.
Something Hicks doesn’t do, despite the velocity, is strike guys out at as elite a rate as you might expect. We can see this trend visualized in the data from Props.cash — player prop research made easy!
Even though he hasn’t logged a ton of innings in his recent starts, which have been his first forays as a starter in the big leagues, it’s still surprising to see a guy with that kind of velocity fail to get beyond five strikeouts regularly.
He’s also walked 11 and allowed 11 earned runs over those five starts (18 2/3 innings). Fingers crossed this one doesn’t go exactly as bad as everyone expects!
• Lastly, Nick and I will be back talking about the Jays and taking your calls live at the conclusion of Tuesday’s finale in St. Louis. Be sure to follow Blue Jays Happy Hour on Callin so you can listen in, drop us a Q in the chat, or give us a call! (As always, the show will be available on your podcast app of choice afterwards!)
Next up: Tuesday, 7:45 PM ET: Jays @ Cardinals (Kevin Gausman vs. Jordan Hicks), TV: Sportsnet, Radio: Sportsnet 590
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I'm hoping to catch the podcast today, but I'm struggling to think of a question to ask. I just have no words when it comes to the offence. Like you, it's hard to think of a solution and the internal 'fix' options as you point out are no guarantees.
Right now we're a .500 team after a pretty tough schedule overall. That's not disastrous, but this season feels worse than others. The offence is just so putrid! I'm trying to think of the last time I remember our offence being so inept...the first half of 1980 comes to mind (dating myself).
It's also a shame because we are not taking advantage of the excellent starting pitching we're getting (for the most part).
ZiPS projects Matt Chapman for a RoS wRC+ of 127(!)
Until Matt Champan's wRC+ exceeds 100 I will be responding to these posts only with Sublime lyrics which, unfortunately, I know a lot of.
𝓐𝓷𝓭 𝔂𝓸𝓾 𝓵𝓸𝓸𝓴 𝓼𝓸 𝓯𝓲𝓷𝓮, 𝔀𝓱𝓮𝓷 𝔂𝓸𝓾 𝓵𝓲𝓮, 𝓲𝓽 𝓳𝓾𝓼𝓽 𝓭𝓸𝓷'𝓽 𝓼𝓱𝓸𝔀,
𝓑𝓾𝓽 𝓘 𝓴𝓷𝓸𝔀 𝔀𝓱𝓲𝓬𝓱 𝔀𝓪𝔂 𝓽𝓱𝓮 𝔀𝓲𝓷𝓭 𝓫𝓵𝓸𝔀𝓼
𝓐 𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓽𝔂 𝓸𝓾𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓽𝓸 𝓯𝓻𝓮𝓮𝓭𝓸𝓶 𝓲𝓼 𝓽𝓱𝓮 𝓸𝓷𝓵𝔂 𝓬𝓱𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓘 𝓱𝓪𝓿𝓮 𝓽𝓸 𝓯𝓮𝓮𝓵 𝓰𝓸𝓸𝓭
𝓔𝓿𝓮𝓷 𝓽𝓱𝓸𝓾𝓰𝓱 𝓘 𝓯𝓮𝓮𝓵 𝓫𝓪𝓭