The Jays' payroll has reached the CBT threshold as Kiermaier is introduced
On Kiermaier's fit, Kiermaier's dollars, future payroll, Johnny Cueto, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Joey Gallo, Andrew Benintendi, catcher thoughts, Chris Bassitt, Anthony Kay, the TV booth, and more!
Our long national nightmare is over. We finally know the terms of the Blue Jays’ free agent deal with Kevin Kiermaier. Mark Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times got the scoop, reporting the figure on Tuesday afternoon.
That’s about in the ballpark one would have expected. And while it’s hardly a bank-breaking deal, there is a financial aspect to it that is actually quite remarkable and unprecedented. Which… since you’ve likely read the title of this post I suppose you already know.
So let’s talk about it!
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Before we get into the financials, I must say that I still have my reservations about having to watch Kevin Kiermaier hit as often as the Jays have signed up for here. He wasn’t brought in to be defensive cover — something he confirmed in a Zoom call with reporters on Thursday.
“When it came to role they said want me to play pretty much every day,” he explained. “They want me manning centre field out there, getting my rest when I need to, but there were no platoon talks or anything like that. Seems like it's my job to lose, I guess you could say.”
He added that he appreciated the way that the team made it clear that they’ve liked him for a very long time.
“They said if I wasn't a Ray I probably would have been a Blue Jay, it's just hard to make trades in the division,” he said.
If the $9 million contract didn’t already make it clear, it’s safe to say now that he’s definitely he’s going to see the field a lot in 2023. Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling has done a nice job in a piece this week of defining the ways that Kiermaier appealed to the Jays.
In it, he wrote:
Kiermaier isn’t replacing Teoscar Hernandez. He’s condensing — arguably upgrading on — Tapia, Bradley, and Zimmer, helping create additional roster flexibility that can be utilized in a variety of ways to acquire other outfielders that help replace the offence Hernandez took with him to Seattle.
Oh boy, the three worst position players on last year’s team all condensed into one roster spot! Hurray!
I don’t want to be too dismissive of Kiermaier’s elite defence, which absolutely will be game-changing, but this is definitely more where I land on the issue:
The Jays didn’t necessarily want to give those guys that much playing time — especially after it became clear that an offensive breakout wasn't coming for Tapia, despite him doing a nice job of getting his ground ball rate down from the astronomical level (67.4%) it reached in 2021 with Colorado.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. spent most of September and early October on the IL. Teoscar Hernández was out for over three weeks from mid-April to early May, and also had a spell on the paternity list in September. And George Springer spent just 10 August days on the IL, but was so battered all year that he only made 86 starts in the outfield. The trio of Gurriel, Hernández, and Springer played in just 121, 131, and 133 games, respectively. That's 101 games missed between the three.
Obviously all three weren't going to play 162, and Tapia's left-handed bat was an asset in some matchups, as were the gloves of Zimmer and Bradley Jr. But often those guys were backups forced into action. It's a bit apples-to-oranges to equate their production with that of a guy who you're intentionally leaning on as much. And who, as Josh points out, in all likelihood will need someone to cover for him at points as well.
Kiermaier has played in 130 games just once in his career, and it was back in 2015 (though he also played in 49 of 2020's 60 games). Springer, of course, can ably take over in centre at times — though he comes with his own injury concerns, and adding Kiermaier is clearly a signal that the Jays prefer he not play such a physically demanding position — and Whit Merrifeld won't kill you out there, but clearly another outfielder needs to be added to the mix.
And will be.
This is where the Kiermaier deal actually gets pretty exciting. The stuff about the flexibility is actually quite interesting. And, as Arden goes on, quite encouraging.
Will that mean betting on Michael Conforto’s return to play? Or Michael Brantley’s ability to avoid the injured list? Is there a more dependable option acquirable via trade such as Bryan Reynolds, Daulton Varsho, or Ian Happ? Does the club look to increase its versatility with someone like Adam Frazier, Brian Anderson, or Jurickson Profar? Is there a more creative bench construction of multiple part-timers with upside in some combination of Joey Gallo, Edwin Rios, Trey Mancini, or AJ Pollock?
None of these names are new, but where adding them would take the Blue Jays’ payroll certainly is. Kiermaier got $9 million. In the days after Arden’s piece, Frazier got $8 million from the Orioles coming off an 81 wRC+/1.1 fWAR campaign. Reclamation projects like Conforto and Brantley are going to receive as much, if not quite a bit more.
According to Cot’s, before the Kiermaier deal the Jays were on track for an opening day payroll of $199.6 million — a figure that includes arbitration projections via MLB Trade Rumors, $4.3 million in dead money from the Randal Grichuk trade, and an estimated $3.4 million for 26-man roster players who have yet to become eligible for arbitration.
Of course, over the last couple of years fans — at least in this market, though I suspect elsewhere as well — have stopped being as concerned about opening day payroll figures, and become more interested in luxury tax payroll. That’s the number that teams are most concerned about, given that there are penalties for going over, which often lead to it functioning as a soft salary cap.
These are penalties that I’m not sure anyone ever believed the Jays would have to be concerned about, especially after president and CEO Mark Shapiro said exactly that during a media session in October 2021.
“That’s not something I've thought a lot about. I'm not sure, with how we're currently constructed, we've got the revenues to support a team that goes over the CBT,” he said when asked about going above the luxury tax at some point in the future. “It's not something that we're planning for as we sit here and look at the payrolls moving out.”
And yet here we are. Roster Resource almost immediately added Kiermaier’s $9 million to their calculations of the Jays’ 2023 CBT payroll, which now projects to $233.6 million. The luxury tax threshold for 2023 is $233 million.
Now, this is just a projection, obviously. The arbitration projections can change still. Some salary could still be shed — dealing Trevor Richards at $1.5 million and/or Trent Thornton at $1.1 million could save a little. The “estimated player benefits” stuff lacks the specifics to be taken as gospel. (“Player benefits include health insurance, transportation, meal money, and other non-salary payments for all 40-man roster players.”)
But, also, it seems incredibly clear that more dollars will be added to payroll. The lack of clarity on the arbitration front cuts both ways, meaning the Jays have to be prepared for that number to be even higher. And there will certainly be dollars set aside to make additions at the trade deadline.
In other words, if the Jays are not quite yet over the threshold, they will be over.
Even for a team controlled by a company massive enough to have been doing this all along, that’s huge. And credit where it’s due.
Let’s maybe not give them too much credit, though. The penalty for going over the threshold by as little as the Jays are projected to be is minimal (in MLB dollars).
Teams that exceed the threshold for the first time are taxed 20% on all overages, so if the Jays are $607,143 above it, their tax bill right now would amount to just $121,428.60. I think they can handle that. There is an additional 12% tax once a team goes $20 million above the threshold, and escalating penalties beyond that, but we can cross those bridges if and when we get there.
Were the Jays to go over the threshold again next year the 20% penalty would jump to 30%. Any year in which a team stays under the threshold, their penalty level is knocked back a level.
Will the Jays have to worry about those escalating penalties a year from now? I suspect not.
For starters, a whole whack of money will be coming off their books next winter. There's $20 million for Hyun Jin Ryu, $12.5 million for Matt Chapman, $9 million for Kiermaier, $6.25 million for Whit Merrifield (assuming they spend $500,000 to buy out his $18 million option), $5.8 million for Lourdes Gurriel Jr., $3 million for Anthony Bass, and the $4.3 million they're paying Colorado this year as part of the Tapia-Grichuk trade.
That's $60.88 million off the books in real dollars. Because the luxury tax number uses average annual value they'll have less coming off their tax bill, but only slightly: $60.77 million. Plus, the threshold next season jumps up to $237 million.
Arbiration raises will cut into that pretty significantly. Conservatively, I'd say that Vlad and Bo will likely combine for something like $12 million more than their 2023 projections of $14.5 million and $5.75 million, for example. Still, though! That's probably going to leave them enough to take a run at luring a certain superstar away from Anaheim (and all the other teams who'll be throwing a half billion dollars at him).
More realistically though, they may not need to do as much next year in free agency. Losing Chapman, should they not extend him, would be a blow. But they hopefully won't need to pour as much money into their rotation as they have in recent winters. Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt will still be under contract for 2024, with Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White potentially still being around (though White is now out of options and, uh, doesn't feel like a guy who is going to be able to hang on to a roster spot all season), and Ricky Tiedemann potentially ready for a big role by then.
It's good! It's not what the Mets are doing, or even what the Yankees are doing having now re-signed Aaron Judge and added Carlos Ródon. But it's good.
And, more importantly, it's a very tangible acknowledgement of just how much money is out there in this sport that I think the team will have a very difficult time walking back from. The genie is out of the bottle.
Quaid, start the reactor…
Ben Nicholson-Smith also pointed to the long-term stability that now exists in the Jays' rotation in his latest for Sportsnet, but adds that the club is still looking for potential adds this year, telling us that "they've shown recent interest in Johnny Cueto."
While the idea of the long-ago villain pitching for the Blue Jays is a pretty fun one (as is a year of making Total Recall jokes), on first blush I'm not super enamored with the idea of the 37-year-old Cueto. Even though he's coming off of a 3.35 ERA season with the White Sox.
He'll soak up innings, he'll avoid free passes, and last year he did a good job of keeping the ball in the ballpark — that had not been the case for the five years prior, though in his defence he'd spent much of that time injured.
He's never been a strikeout-per-inning type, but the Ks really dried up for him in 2022. His 102 strikeouts in 158 1/3 innings were the fewest for any pitcher to reach the 150 inning mark (his 15.7% strikeout rate was worse than all but Seattle's Marco Gonzales), and Steamer projects him for a 4.69 ERA and 4.50 FIP in 2023.
I wouldn't reject the idea outright, though. Having Kiermaier now in centre would certainly help out a pitch-to-contact guy like this, getting him would likely only take a one-year commitment, and adding some competition for White and Kikuchi can only be a good thing. Plus, rather interestingly, FanGraphs is actually pretty high on him. Cueto ranks 32nd on their list of the top 50 free agents, immediately ahead of Andrew Heaney, Ross Stripling, and Michael Brantley.
"He still throws a ton of strikes (he tied a career-low in walk rate) and a ton of different pitches, eight if you count the rare low-slot sliders and slow eephus curveballs that Cueto occasionally manifests,” writes Eric Longenhagen. “Combine that with all the disruptive shimmies and slide steps, as well as Cueto’s trademark cool, and he’s a good veteran backend starter option on a one-year deal."
OK. Sure. Let's do it, Ross.
Quickly…
• Also from Ben's piece, he mentions the familiar names of Brantley and Conforto — the two Michaels, as I like to call them — as well as Joey Gallo as players "who've been on [the Jays'] radar" and make some sense to go after — with Gallo specifically cited as a potential platoon piece.
On Friday afternoon it was reported that Gallo has signed with the Twins, which frankly doesn’t bother me very much. Personally, I'd hope they go after someone who won't need Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as a platoon partner, because I think that there's a reasonable chance that Gurriel... just... isn't very good?
That's blasphemy in some corners, I know. But his .346 BABIP in 2022 did a whole lot of work in raising his production after the power completely disappeared. And, as Josh Howsam pointed out on Twitter on Friday, the wrist injury doesn’t adequately explain what happened, as his average launch angle, exit velocity, and max exit velocity all were completely normal. If the BABIP goes and the power stays gone, it could be ugly. Prove me wrong, Lourdes!
• I’ll say this for Gurriel, though: I’d have to think pretty hard about whether I’d rather take a chance on him than Andrew Benintendi, who also rode a high BABIP to a fine looking slash line in 2022 despite a very noticeable disappearance of his power. Benintendi hit five home runs in 521 plate appearances — the same number as Gurriel Jr. hit in 493.
They're hardly the same player. Benintendi hits from the left side, Gurriel from the right. Benintendi offers positive value on the bases, Gurriel ranked 225th of 246 batters with at least 350 PA by BsR (base running runs) in 2022 — which, granted, was better than teammates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (236th) and Alejandro Kirk (243). But over the last four years Gurriel tops Benintendi by wRC+ 117 to 107, and by fWAR they're pretty close to even.
On Friday afternoon it was reported by Jon Heyman that Benintendi had signed a five-year, $75 million deal with the White Sox. Yowza.
• For those keeping track, that leaves the two Michaels among the most talked-about outfield options left on the free agent market. There are other ways to go, of course. The trade market? Jurickson Profar?
• Back to Benny Fresh, who also checked in on the catching market in his piece. “One source with first-hand knowledge of the catching market described the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Giants and Padres as interested teams at that position,” he reports. “It stands to reason the Astros would also be in that group after seeing (Christian) Vazquez leave for the Twins.”
Minnesota got less interesting as a potential trade partner with the Kiermaier acquisition, but their signing of Gallo might make Max Kepler even more in play than before. I don’t think I could sit here pining for Kepler after complaining so much about Keirmaier’s bat — Kepler slashed .227/.318/.348 last year, and his best year at the plate by far was the juiced ball season of 2019 — but I’m still somewhat intrigued.
• Also looking at the Jays’ catching situation this week was the Toronto Star’s Mike Wilner, who makes the case that team should not trade Danny Jansen. It’s an interesting one. And while there are definitely reasons for having a veteran catcher on a win-now team — or Jansen, specifically, on this team because of concerns Mike cites about Moreno’s game calling and Kirk’s durability — consider me very much not swayed by the stuff about how Jansen’s a “grinder,” or especially by this: “It should be noted as well, that the Jays were 40-19 last season (including playoffs) when Jansen started behind the plate and 52-53 the rest of the time.”
This is an odd one considering Mike knows about the flaws of catcher’s ERA, which these kinds of numbers tread awfully close to. Like, the Jays were 23-9 in games José Berríos started. Maybe they should have started Berríos every day?
Incidentally, Berríos had a 4.85 ERA throwing 21 times to Kirk, and a 5.47 ERA throwing 10 times to Jansen. Overall, pitchers throwing to Kirk had a 3.44 ERA with opponents producing a .665 OPS, whereas when throwing to Jansen it was a 3.74 ERA and a .711 OPS. Part of that is the fact that Kirk was Alek Manoah's personal catcher, but part of it is also that these kinds of numbers are so noisy as to be virtually meaningless.
Mike also suggests that if the Jays were to move Moreno they could bring in a Tyler Heineman-type veteran third catcher. Might I suggest they do that after trading Jansen as well?
I dunno. Though most top teams do seem to employ veteran catchers, the 2019 Dodgers won 106 games with 24-year-old Will Smith taking over as their primary backstop in the second half of the season, and won the World Series the next year. Kirk just turned 24. Moreno is 23. And Jansen is hurt all the time anyway. No need to get too cute about this.
• On Friday afternoon, the Blue Jays made their signing of free agent RHP Chris Bassitt official, with Jon Heyman reporting that he’ll be paid $18 million, plus a $3 million signing bonus, in 2022, then $21 million in each of the following two years. In order to make room for him on the 40-man roster, they’ve designated left-hander Anthony Kay for assignment.
That's obviously a tough one for Kay, who showed flashes of promise in his Blue Jays career that made you kind of see why he had been a first round pick of the Mets in 2016, and one of the two pieces the Jays got when trading two years of Marcus Stroman to New York in 2019. Those flashes, however, were too few and too far between, especially over the last two seasons, as injuries have sidetracked him.
Kay made 12 starts between Toronto and Buffalo in 2021, with six relief appeearances mixed in, logging just 50 innings for the season. In 2022 he managed just two big league innings, and 24 1/3 overall. He walked 11 and allowed four home runs in 14 innings for Buffalo.
This closes the books on the Stroman trade, with Simeon Woods-Richardson having been dealt to the Twins as part of the package for José Berríos last summer. If Berríos bounces back in 2023 I don't think you'll feel so bad about that succession of moves — and, frankly, the way he pitched down the stretch in 2021 probably makes it a win anyway. Still, there’s a universe out there somewhere in which Stroman is just about to enter the third year of a five- or six-year extension with the Jays, and it's tough to say they'd be worse off for it. Though… I suppose that retaining Austin Martin, at this stage, is hardly the world's greatest prize. (The former fifth overall pick slashed .241/.367/.315 in a repeat year at Double-A this season).
I don't think Shapiro and Atkins were ever going to make Stroman the highest paid player in their young clubhouse, so it's a moot point, but an interesting thought exercise nonetheless.
Anyway, Kay's Blue Jays career was so lacking in distinction that this is what we're talking about! Hopefully he gets himself healthy and his career back on track with a new club.
So it goes.
• Lastly, Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun caught Buck Martinez’s recent appearance on The Bob McCown Podcast, and passed along the longtime broadcaster’s disappointment at the recent news that Pat Tabler won’t be returning to Sportsnet’s Jays broadcasts — among other interesting booth-related tidbits, including the fact that it seems likely Buck himself will be back in some capacity.
“Tabby was blindsided by this as I was,” Martinez told McCown.
“We didn’t see it coming. We were both at the end of a contract and his wasn’t picked up.
“It’s very, very sad. It kind of reflects the world today where experience isn’t valued and consistency isn’t valued and loyalty isn’t valued. It was a sad call when I heard that Pat had not been renewed for next year.
“Pat may have been the best partner I’ve ever had. Worked hard. Prepared. Humble. Wanted to bring the best to the broadcast every night.”
Nobody ever seems to have a bad word about Tabler, which makes this all tougher — though I must admit that I’d be lying if I said I’m terribly upset about the Buck and Tabby booth being broken up. I’ve said before that I thought Tabler did some of his best work this year when paired with Dan Shulman, and I’d have been happy to have heard more of that going forward. Buck and Tabby were old school, and certainly had their charms, but were also much more likely to make me groan or yell at the TV.
No matter what I think, it’s a pretty big change, and a shame that someone made the decision that Pat couldn’t go out on his own terms, with at least a few games every year. That appears to be the plan now for Buck, though the level of his involvement remains unclear.
From Longley’s piece:
Shulman has indicated recently that he plans to call the entire home schedule as well as a significant portion of road contests.
It’s unlikely that Martinez would do anywhere near a full schedule, of course, meaning Rogers has some off-season moves required to finalize before the season. Studio analyst Joe Siddall is seen as the prime candidate to shuffle into the game analyst chair, but indications are that Rogers has yet to settle on the terms of how many games Martinez would work.
Dan and Joe as the primary booth, with a taste of Buck, sounds pretty incredible to me, but there are definitely other talented folks already employed by Sportsnet who I hope are getting consideration to pitch in. Ben Wagner does a great job on the radio side, and I really enjoyed the games I heard this year when he was joined by Ben Nicholson-Smith or Arden Zwelling. Caleb Joseph also did a great job flipping between the radio both and his TV analyst role — the latter of which would presumably be increased if Siddall ended up as Dan’s main partner. Ricky Romero, if he wanted to travel that much, would also be a great choice. And I think Hazel Mae would do an outstanding job moving into the booth as well.
You can’t not feel bad for Tabby here, but however it shakes out, Rogers did get their biggest decision right, and that’s expanding Dan’s role. Just 59 days until spring training starts, kids!
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/market-for-brandon-drury-very-active.html
Maybe I'm just an irredeemable troll, but this would excite me just to see how mad people get.
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