The Jays' return was perfection (Plus: the week ahead, Atkins speaks!, and more!)
The Blue Jays are back in Toronto! So let’s talk about it!
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The stretch has begun, and with a twist this year: no August trades. Other than a little movement on the waiver wire and promotions from the minor leagues — the Jays would need to find room on the 40-man for someone like Kevin Smith (.295/.383/.598 with 18 HR in 304 PA and a glove to boot) or John Axford (one run on three hits and two walks over 10 2/3 innings with 14 strikeouts), but those are certainly two intriguing possibilities — rosters are pretty much set. What you see is what you get.
And so that means that I’d better start writing more about actual games of baseball. There’s playoffs to be made, dammit! Here’s “three up, three down” for what was an incredible weekend as major league baseball returned to Toronto for the first time since September 2019 — so good that we’re doing all up arrows. Nine up! How sweep it is! Couldn’t have asked for a better way for the Blue Jays to come back.
Friday (Blue Jays 6 - Royals 4)
▲ George Springer
Teoscar Hernández had that big first home run, and Bo Bichette had that big one in the seventh inning to all but put the game away, but it was the guy that Jays fans had never seen in person before who impressed me most in this one. Springer went 3-for-4 with a run scored and an RBI. He doubled home Randal Grichuk with two outs in the second to put the Jays up 2--0 (and might have added another one if a faster runner than Alejandro Kirk, who ended up at third on the play, had been on base instead). He added a two-out single in the fifth that amounted to nothing, then doubled again with Kirk on base in the seventh to help propel the rally that led to Bichette’s big blast. A great introduction to the Blue Jays’ biggest ever free agent signing. (We’ll talk about him a little more when he gets an up arrow for Saturday’s game.)
▲ Tim Mayza
Ross Stripling had a couple of duds on either side of the All-Star break and did well to continue to bounce back in this one (despite mustering just one strikeout), but when he exited the game with one out in the fifth a Sal Pérez home run had just pulled the Royals to within a run at 3-2. We all know that the bullpen has been the team's weak point all season, so the Jays needed some big outs. Mayza delivered. His five outs, starting with cleanup hitter Andrew Benintendi in the fourth, held the Jays in the game long enough for the offence to put it away. It was an especially important performance in retrospect, as the pitchers who followed him — Brad Hand and Jordan Romano — each allowed a run in their lone innings of work.
I know it was the Royals, but still! They’d won eight of nine coming into this one. Also, Mayza’s been pretty unhittable of late. (Note: The tweet below was sent before Edward Olivares’s blast on Sunday).
▲ Being back in Toronto
What can one even say about this that isn’t blazingly obvious? The Jays are where they belong and it absolutely rules. Friday legitimately felt like opening day. And with this team finally having a home, and a full-throated crowd behind them, plus an excellent new starter and a bullpen that doesn’t make you want to dry heave? It is not at all unfair to think that they could get a very real boost from it all, and it felt like they were already receiving one all weekend. I have yet to make it to a game myself — those tickets are expensive! become a paid subscriber! — but to see old friends getting together, posting pics of their pre-game rituals and from at the dome, and doing all those things that were absent in our lives for so long is so incredibly uplifting it hardly feels real yet. Especially since the team has returned fully formed as a playoff contender — with some incredibly easy guys to cheer for on it, too.
Let’s do this!
Saturday (Jays 4 - Royals 0)
▲ George Springer (again)
Hard not to get an up arrow when you have two hits, both of which were home runs, and three RBIs on a day when your team scored only four. It took him a little while to get his season going, but George Springer right now is everything that the Blue Jays and their fans could have asked for. After adding another double and two walks on Sunday, Springer's wRC+ for the season is 157 over 148 plate appearances. That's good enough to put him in the top 10 in MLB among batters with at least 140 PA. He also seems to thoroughly enjoy being on this team.
▲ Alek Manoah
That Alek Manoah is the Blue Jays’ fourth best starter is pretty incredible. The rookie seems to have come in with a mid-rotation floor and a real chance to be something even better than that. He didn't necessarily have his best put-away stuff in this one, striking out just four over seven innings of work, but you can get away with that when you only allow two hits and a walk. His velocity was down a tick or more and he generated swing-and-miss on just 30% of the pitches that Royals hitters swung at (down from 47% in his previous start), but some of that can be attributed to the fact the he needed a spell on the injured list after he slipped and fell down some wet dugout steps in Buffalo and bruised his back. He’s going to go out there and give the Blue Jays a chance to win every time he takes the ball, it seems — and probably for a long time, too.
He’s also got a pretty inspiring story. Sportsnet’s David Singh has an outstanding profile up this weekend featuring Manoah’s mom, Susana Lluch, who you’ll likely remember as the real centre of attention when Manoah made his debut at Yankees Stadium back in May.
▲ Adam Cimber
Cimber relieved Ryan Borucki with two outs in the eighth. He immediately gave up a single to Whit Merrifield, then got down to business: a strikeout of Carlos Santana to end the frame, then three straight strikeouts in the ninth to end the ballgame. Cimber has now struck out nine batters in 11 1/3 innings since coming over from the Marlins, allowing just one run on five hits and a single walk. He also gave us this gift.
Sunday (Jays 5 - Rays 1)
▲ José Berríos
It has to start with the Jays’ new starter. Berríos gave up some hits, especially early. He gave up some hard contact. He bent, but he didn’t break. And when he got out the other end his line sparkled. Five hits and one walk over six innings with seven strikeouts. Granted, he also hit three guys.
Berríos’ loves to come inside on right handers with his two-seamer/sinker, so he does occasionally hit guys — coming into this one he had 51 HBPs over 135 career starts — but you’ll obviously take it for everything else he brings. He fields his position very well, as he displayed on a couple of occasions in this one, including a pretty incredible display of concentration to field a slow roller with a sawed-off bat whipping past him. He also throws some filth — particularly with his curveball. (Clips via @PitchingNinja)
He’s a fun one. And, according to the broadcast, a guy who the Jays — who surely also love that he checks all sorts of boxes in terms of being a good teammate and an incredibly hard worker — are likely going to make a push to sign long-term. Yes, please.
▲ Santiago Espinal
With due respect to Marcus Semien, who blasted the Jays to a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the third, I’m going to go with Espinal here, who hit his second career home run in the fourth and picked up a walk with the bases loaded for his second RBI of the day. He also makes one a whole lot more comfortable when standing at third base than Cavan Biggio does.
Espinal now has a 118 wRC+ on a .312/.362/.428 slash line (BABIP aided a little bit, as he's at .353). He's walked in 7.4% of his 149 plate appearances this season and struck out in just 13.4% of them. Contrast that with Biggio, who — shock of shocks — is not walking as much given how clear it is that he's unable to do damage. His walk rate is down to (a still very healthy) 12.6%, but that's about all he's doing, as his strikeout rate is at 26.9% for the season (a career high) and he's slashing just .221/.318/.358, which is good for a wRC+ of just 85.
Espinal also looks good in the Jays’ spiffy home run jacket, even if it’s clearly built for larger adult sons than he. (Image via @BlueJays)
He needs to play more often. Especially once Corey Dickerson gets activated and can replace Biggio as the lineup’s one lefty hitter.
▲ Vibes
This team is a whole ass mood, and even when he’s not playing, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is at the centre of it all. Whether that’s being danced at while taped to a dugout rail…
…or playing infield coach and doing the wave.
It’s Vlad’s world. We’re all just living in it.
Honourable mention to this guy though:
The Week Ahead
There's no rest for the wickedly fun, as the Blue Jays are back at it on Monday, continuing their homestand with a holiday matinée against Cleveland. They'll play four in total against the soon-to-be Guardians before the Boston Red Sox — one of the teams they're trying to catch — comes in for four of their own, including a Saturday doubleheader to make up for a rain out in Buffalo a couple weeks back.
Pitching matchups:
• Monday, 3:07 PM ET vs. Cleveland: RHP Eli Morgan (1-3, 7.47 ERA, 33 K/5 BB/31 1/3 IP) vs. LHP Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.04 ERA, 150 K/30 BB/118 1/3 IP)
• Tuesday, 7:07 PM ET vs. Cleveland: RHP Zach Pleasac (6-3, 4.26 ERA, 52 K/16 BB/80 1/3 IP) vs. LHP Hyun Jin Ryu (10-5, 3.26 ERA, 94 K/25 BB/116 IP)
• Wednesday, 7:07 PM ET vs. Cleveland: RHP J.C. Mejia (1-6, 7.60 ERA, 43 K/19 BB/45 IP) vs. LHP Steven Matz (8-6, 4.58 ERA, 91 K/25 BB/90 1/3 IP)
• Thursday, 7:07 PM ET vs. Cleveland: RHP Triston McKenzie (1-4, 6.11 ERA, 79 K/45 BB/63 1/3 IP) vs. RHP Ross Stripling (4-6, 4.75 ERA, 85 K/26 BB/85 1/3 IP)
Obviously the Jays have got some pretty favourable matchups coming their way, and they’ll need to make the best of that with the Red Sox looming. On the positive side about the Red Sox series, continuing on with six starters means that they’re setup to have Alek Manoah open things up against Boston, with Robbie Ray and José Berrios getting the starts in the doubleheader, and then they’ll close out the weekend set with Hyun Jin Ryu on the hill. That’ll play!
Atkins speaks!
Ross Atkins met with members of the media over Zoom back on Friday to discuss his team's activity at the trade deadline. Obviously we've already gotten a taste of why the Jays were so high on right-hander José Berríos, but nonetheless I think the GM's comments are worth revisiting. Here are some highlights.
On deciding to actually trade some top prospects
Obviously it was a bit of a surprise to learn on Friday afternoon that the Jays had actually parted with a pair of incredibly good prospects like Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson in the trade for José Berríos. Atkins, thankfully, understood that patience isn’t always a virtue.
I think it's really just the combination of things occurring over several years where the development and maturation of our young core, the opportunities we've had over the last couple of off-seasons to add to it, and now having our farm system in place and a team that we'd like to help push to the next level. The combination of those things making some sense, and then the opportunity to acquire the talent that obviously we were very excited about.
I spoke about this on our deadline reaction podcast, and surely also wrote about it at some point during a busy day on Friday, but Martin and Woods Richardson didn’t quite line up as well with this Blue Jays core — which is good right this very minute — in the way that a lot of people seemed to think. The Jays are going to get something like 5 wins out of Bo Bichette at the league minimum, and 7 or 8 wins out of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. making the same amount. That’s right now value that the team needed to capitalize on — especially with Springer and Ryu in their 30s, and pending free agents Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien performing the way they have so far this season. Waiting for guys like Martin, Woods Richardson, Gabriel Moreno, Jordan Groshans, Orelvis Martinez, etc., to get to Triple-A, get to the big leagues, then get accustomed to the big leagues enough to play at a similarly high level would have been a waste. Some of them can do that still, but the here and now matters most. Prospects are for poor people, as they say.
When did it become clear that the Twins were willing to play ball?
It was very late in the process, to answer all of those questions. In my discussions with Derek (Falvey, Minnesota’s president of baseball operations) we knew the potential was there. We also knew that it was going to be a very steep price. They want to continue to try to win and they could have very easily just had (Berríos) pitch for them tonight (Friday). So we knew the price was going to be high, and I think working through our system with not only the Twins, but with other teams, there were clear targets that the entire industry was focused on. Fortunately we had enough of them to meet the mark.
No one really picked up on the fact that Martin was going to be a guy the Jays might be willing to move, but maybe we should have given the way he’s struggled this year to tap into his power, and the fact that 2020 was just such an unknown year in terms of scouting. If the Twins still saw Martin as more the guy we heard about in the draft, and the Jays were starting to see him as a light-hitting centre fielder rather than a shortstop with power potential, you can pretty easily understand why he ended up pried loose when Berríos was the name coming the other way.
Was Berríos the top target?
I think that's a fair assessment, to say that — certainly one of the top targets. I think, depending on who you talk to, the consensus was definitely in and around him. Personally, I think the character, the makeup, obviously the talent and the durability and how accomplished he already is. But the full complement and all of the character that we've heard about and have seen, and the attributes in and around him, was just we felt like such a good fit for this team and this organization.
The Jays are all-in on this character stuff, and judging by how damn likable the team they’ve put together is, it’s pretty hard to argue that they shouldn’t be. Berríos has a great reputation, as you’ve likely heard already, so it makes total sense that he was valued by them as highly as he was.
Later on Atkins would explain, “our job in the front office is to create a good environment for them and continue to try to build that roster out in the most balanced and thoughtful way that we possibly can.”
It’s not difficult to see how this deal fits that view of his job exactly, both in terms of Berríos’s ability to contribute to the culture, and the fact that his presence greatly helps balance the team’s right-now core.
How much of an attribute is Berríos's durability?
We talk about it a lot — all the time — I think in order to be a major league starting pitcher, I think it starts there. It starts with, in order to get better, you need to do it a lot. And to get those reps you have to be durable. So, he always has been, and I think there's a lot of pitchers out there that maybe don't have his track record that can be as durable moving forward, but that is certainly an attractive attribute.
*COUGH* Nate Pearson *COUGH*
On adding Joakim Soria
I think his experiences, the different roles he's pitched in, the experiences he's had, the teams he's been on, the pressure he's pitched under, and the strike throwing. Obviously we've heard incredible things about the teammate as well, but the strike-throwing ability, and the experiences, the combination, I think, will allow us to have another option in that 'pen.
Sure. Sounds good.
How busy was the week?
It was one of the busier ones, I think for sure. It feels like it gets busier every year. Even when potentially your phone's not ringing, you're making others ring. Each year we get a little bit better at it. Here in our front office we're a little bit more cohesive, a little bit more collaborative, and a little bit more connected than we were two days ago, and one month ago, and two years ago. So that increases efficiency, but it also increases opportunity. So there is a balance there, but there was also a calmness in our room, and a lot of confidence that there was going to be an opportunity for us.
While it’s foolish to base anything off of the reactions people have to things online, based on those I have a hard time believing there could possibly have been that much cohesion when it came to the idea of trading Martin. Someone must have disagreed, right? Probably?
On the market and teams parting with higher end prospects
I haven't really assessed it entirely throughout, but as we were going through we felt as go the asks were very high (compared to) what we were accustomed to. And then as we saw moves occurring it appeared that those asks were being met. So, it's a hard thing to really pin down and say one reason's why. I think the subjective reasons we just talked about. That excitement and energy around being, for us, for the first time back in our home field, but I think throughout the game people are just so excited to be playing baseball in front of fans again. And that probably has some impact. But everything is a bit cyclical in the world and in business, and maybe we're seeing a bit of a shift here. It's exciting, it really is exciting to see this deadline. It was one of the more invigorating deadlines that I can recall in a while, and I think that's ultimately good for baseball.
I mean, it was maybe not quite so exciting if you’re a fan in Minnesota, D.C., Chicago, Dallas, Miami, Arizona, Boston, Seattle, Denver, Pittsburgh…
Did other teams' moves impact your willingness to pay the price for Berríos?
Yeah, I mean, a similar response (as to an earlier question): maybe. You're trying not to, you're trying to discipline yourselves because I think any research you do, any studying you do, about decision-making, about running a good business or running a good sports team, is about being disciplined and about being patient. And in this case we felt as though we were still doing that, and felt as though the value was worth it. The opportunity to acquire Berríos was exciting for us. A very difficult decision. Not something that we just walked into. Austin Martin will be a great player, and Simeon Woods Richardson is going to be a great pitcher, and we're going to be pulling for them. This was just an opportunity that we wanted to take.
Honestly, man, it’s fine if the Yankees getting Gallo forced your hand here. Go ahead and say it if you want to!
How does this affect the rotation going forward?
I haven't finalized anything, and obviously Charlie will be the person that finalizes those decisions, so we haven't come up with anything final. We've actually only exchanged some brief texts about it. We've talked about hypotheticals before. We also (have had) brief interactions with José, we've talked about his preferences and desires. And we do have the need for additional starting pitching moving forward here in the short-term, so we have those options, we'll work through it with the staff, and whether it's keeping a six-man for an extended period of time — which seems like, as we're sitting here today, the most realistic outcome for the short-term — and having that as an option makes us better.
Oh yes, yes, surely Charlie finalizes those decisions!
As for the idea of sticking with a six man rotation, uh… I guess I get it because the team is in the middle of a run of 18 games in 17 days, then kicking off a west coast road trip with a doubleheader in Anaheim on the 10th. I also get that Ryu responds better to extra rest and Manoah is having his innings monitored. But you just paid a ton for Berríos and now you’re going keep on giving starts to Steven Matz that you don’t have to? I can’t see that lasting for very long.
How do you feel about your inexperienced catchers?
Pretty good. Obviously Alejandro's been there, and Reese now has a pretty good number of major league plate appearances and games caught under his belt. He's really been exceptional. He's done a great job with our pitching staff, he has had incredible at-bats. Obviously had really good results, but I think even more encouraging on Reese is to see the pitches he's not swinging at and the way that he's working the count, thinking about using the whole field, and thinking about opportunities that could present themselves offensively. He's really been very solid for us, so they'll be a good compliment to one another. There's going to be a lot that's asked of them, and hopefully we can get Jano healthy soon and he can become an option as well.
There were rumours floating out there on Friday that Atkins was looking to finally rectify the Esmil Rogers trade and bring Yan Gomes back to the Blue Jays, which is clearly what this question is getting at. Gomes instead went to the A’s, one of the teams the Blue Jays are chasing, so they’ll have to make due with this duo until Danny Jansen (aka “Jano”) gets healthy. (Or, perhaps, until Gabriel Moreno gets healthy???)
Would you have considered moving significant prospects for a rental?
I think it's hard to say in a vacuum whether not we would have removed a top 10 player for someone with only two months of being a Toronto Blue Jay, but we considered it for sure. And it was in front of us as opportunity. So it wasn't a hard 'No.' We weren't saying, 'Absolutely not.' Everything's just a bit of a balance, so. And you know, oftentimes this is probably — we could talk about this too long, and I won't get too long-winded here — so often it depends on how one team views the player as opposed to the other, in terms of top talent. So we were certainly open to it.
I’m pretty sure Atkins has never fully closed a door in his life, so this tracks. Given where the Jays are in the standings, though, giving up a huge prospect for a rental would have been a bit odd. And, I suspect, pretty unpopular, too. Hell, Berríos isn’t one and a lot of fans were aghast at the price the team paid for him. (Not I, of course. Flags fly forever.)
On extensions for Semien or Ray
Those are conversations that we'll always keep in house, and I hope you can understand and respect that. Love those guys. Man, both of them, I mean really, how impressive have they been? Robbie Ray, just that last start — that last start could have gone a different direction and he did not allow that to happen. Obviously that was one of many. And then Marcus Semien has been one of the steadiest professionals I've ever been around in my career. There's a lot of them in that room, but I can't say enough about those acquisitions. And obviously you hope that there's a way that they can continue to be here.
It would be amazing to see these guys return to the fold again next year and for years to come, but as I’ve written before, the Jays are probably more interested in finding the next Semien and Ray than they are in paying the full freight long-term for both of them after having elite seasons like the ones they’re in the middle of.
The other thing is, with teams like the Dodgers and Yankees mindful of the luxury tax threshold, and other typical spenders like the Nationals and the Cubs suddenly tearing things down, there’s a chance that there’s going to be a lot that the Blue Jays can do in free agency this winter. Based on the state of the team, they could end up being a really attractive destination, too. I know that’s not the way things usually work, and you certainly wouldn’t want to bank too much on that, but the Jays were very cognizant of this coming winter when they refused to offer multiple year contracts to guys like Taijuan Walker and Brad Hand last year. There’s a real scenario where it could be a buyers market again and they have the pick of the litter, or thereabouts. And either way, they’re going to have money to spend. That may end up being on guys like Semien and Ray again, which would be great. But I’m not sure it’s very likely those guys get extensions done before that.
Then again, I didn’t think the Jays would be trading away any of their top prospects at the deadline, so what the hell do I know?
Top image via the Toronto Blue Jays/@BlueJays; GIFs via Sportsnet/MLB.tv
Great recap. Exciting times! A couple of quick questions that perhaps you can address sometime:
1. Are we that enamoured with Biggio that he's a keeper?
2. If one of McGuire or Kirk gets injured, who's the other option? Graterol?
3. If we don't go try and sign Ray, who are the free agent starters for next year? We'll need one for sure (I suppose I could look this up, but I'm too lazy).
That guy with the finger must have been a Twins fan.
Great recap, Andrew. Just curious as to how much a ticket to the Dome would cost. I’d be willing to give a donation to get you to one of their games.