The offence stays hot and Ryu outduels Ohtani as the Jays win game one in Anaheim
On Springer's dinger, Vlad's adjustments, Danny Jansen, Hyun Jin Ryu, Cavan Biggio, Matt Chapman, Dante Bichette, Nate Pearson, Alek Manoah, prospects, and more!
The first game of this weekend’s Jays-Angels series featured a showdown between last year’s top two finishers in AL MVP voting — and Vlad and the Blue Jays came out on top.
So let’s talk about it!
Up: Starting off right
Whether momentum really exists in sports is something that is often hotly debated, but something I don’t think we can really debate is that it was really important that the Blue Jays come out in this one and keep building on their offensive breakout from Tuesday night in St. Louis. That was obviously going to be difficult against last year’s AL MVP, Shohei Ohtani, but it turns out that the red hot George Springer (205 wRC+ since the start of the Seattle series) was up to the task.
Springer put together an outstanding, eight-pitch at-bat in which he got — and got his teammates — a look at a heavy dose of Ohtani’s two primary pitches (four-seamer, slider), with a look at one badly missed splitter for good measure.
Here’s how the first seven pitches of the battle went.
Slider (82.8) for a ball (barely!)
Four-seamer (94.9) for a ball
Slider (82.7) for a called strike
Slider (84.6) fouled off
Splitter (85.7) for a ball
Four-seamer (96.0) fouled off
Slider (85.0) fouled off
We can see quite clearly that Ohtani’s plan was to keep the ball inside to Springer as each of the first seven pitches he saw were either on the inner black, or even farther inside. This was a smart plan, it turns out.
On pitch eight, Ohtani went back to the fastball, throwing Springer his hardest one yet (96.8 mph). It was also the only one that he left out over the plate.
I think you know what happens next.
Springer’s at-bat wasn’t just important for the run it put on the board, either. Perhaps because of the extended look at Ohtani’s arsenal he was able to see during Springer’s at-bat, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was ready when it came time to face him.
After going down 0-1 on a tough called strike, then swinging over top of a splitter, Vlad battled back in his at-bat. He fouled off a splitter on the inner black, watched a slider sail low and away, then smashed a slider that caught too much of the plate. Vlad sent this one 388 feet at a launch angle of 32°, which gave the drive a expected batting average of .580. Unfortunately for him it only made it as far as the warning track before settling relatively easily into the glove of left fielder Brandon Marsh. Still, a confidence-inspiring start!
Up: Even more offence!
The Jays' offence wasn't perfect in this one, as they struck out 15 times and managed just three walks. And they may have been fortunate to not have seen the best of Ohtani, whose fastball was down 1.6 mph from his average this season. But they came up with some big hits, particularly from their best hitters — a group that, apparently, now also includes Danny Jansen.
In the three-run third — an inning that began with a rare Lourdes Gurriel Jr. walk (one of two on the night, which is hopefully a good sign for the struggling sparkplug) — Springer singled, Espinal poked a ball up the middle for an RBI, and then, after a Vladdy strikeout, Bo Bichette smacked a two-out, two-run double that split the outfielders and rolled to the wall.
Vlad would finally get his in the sixth, smashing a hanging curve off the foul pole in left for his second homer in as many games (though only his third in the month of May).
And then, of course, there was Jansen.
Danny Jansen smashed a ball 369 feet that was 99.8 mph off the bat in the first inning, but just barely missed a home run. In the ninth, against reliever Jaime Barría, he did not miss. Another 99 mph screamer, this one went 401 feet over the wall in centre.
For his abbreviated (36 PA) season so far, Jansen now has six homers and a wRC+ of 252. Go back to when he came off the IL in late August of last year and over his last 101 PA he has 12 homers and a 219 wRC+. Among the 415 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances since last year's All-Star break, Jansen's 220 wRC+ (in 107 PA) ranks second to only Anaheim's Taylor Ward (251). Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, José Ramírez, Kyle Tucker, and Mookie Betts round out the top 10.
Granted, Jansen doesn't have nearly as many plate appearances as those other guys (nor does Ward). We're definitely cheating here by making this comparison. But it's pretty damn fun! He's also, importantly, not doing this because of crazy batted ball luck. Jansen's BABIP over that span is just .254. Of course, home runs aren't balls in play, and Jansen's 13 of those represent more than a third of his 31 hits. His ISO of .500 is by far the best among those 415 hitters, with second place Bryce Harper coming in at .349.
Since integration only one player — Barry Bonds in his record-breaking 2001 — has qualified for a batting title with an ISO above .500. Only Bonds (2001-04), Mark McGwire (1996, 1998-99), and Sammy Sosa (2001), have even been over .400!
In other words, I think it's safe to say that Jansen will see some regression. But there are underlying trends in his last 100 plate appearances that definitely do make him look like a different hitter than before. In his career before last summer's All-Star break, Jansen had struck out 21.3% of the time in 760 plate appearances, he had produced an average exit velocity of 87.5 mph, a hard hit rate of 32.7%, and had pulled the ball 49.9% of the time.
Since then? His strikeout rate has dropped to 13.1%, his average exit velocity has jumped to 92.3 mph, his hard hit rate to 48.8%, and his pull rate to 63.1%.
Those pull and hard hit rates are at levels even José Bautista — easily the new Jansen's most fun, if still wholly unrealistic (probably) comp — never achieved, and at his current pace he'd obliterate the all-time record for home runs in a season by a catcher. That's probably not quite who he is. But if Jansen can even just yank 20 to 30 balls over the left field fence every year that would make him pretty unbelievably valuable. Only 25 times has a catcher surpassed 30 homers in a season since 1994, and eight of those were Mike Piazza.
While it's incredibly easy to get carried away here, it sort of feels like the kind of thing he might even be able to do! Wild!
Up: Hyun Jin Ryu
According to Matt Devlin on Thursday night’s broadcast, Hyun Jin Ryu is the only pitcher that Mike Trout is hitless against in more than ten at-bats. That’s pretty incredible stuff. And Ryu’s odd ability to retire the best player of the last decade certainly helped in this one.
Ryu gave up a lead-off single to Luis Rengifo in the bottom of the first, but then got Trout to fly out, before a walk and a GIDP off the bat of Anthony Rendon ended the threat. In the Angels' two-run third, with no outs and a run already in on a bloop single from Rengifo, Trout had a chance to break the game open but Ryu got him to hit softly into a fielder's choice. A run-scoring Ohtani fielder's choice followed, then a scorching liner off the bat of Rendon that found Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s glove in left field ended that threat.
Clearly there was some traffic on the bases for Ryu in this one. He allowed two runs on six hits and one walk over five innings of work, but only managed a single strikeout — though it must be noted that it was issued to Ohtani, who swung through Ryu’s last pitch of the night. Otherwise, however, swing-and-miss was not his game in this one. Ryu generated just two whiffs all night. He fastball was also down 0.9 mph from his season average, and we learned after the game that he didn’t go beyond the fifth inning because of tightness in his left elbow — though, per Shi Davidi, Charlie Montoyo added that the tightness wasn’t major and won’t cause him to miss a start.
That’s the bad news!
Still, it was a pretty good night for Ryu. He froze eight batters for called strikes with the four-seamer, and the contact he gave up for the most part wasn't all that loud. The Angels put 19 balls in play, but only six were off that bat at 95 mph or harder, and their average exit velocity on the fastball of 86.7 mph was well off of this year's big league average (91.3). The fact that he was allowed to face Trout and Ohtani for a third time, and that it sounds as though he'd have been asked to go back out for the sixth if that forearm tightness hadn't cropped up, also suggests that things were going well. Plus, he was efficient, exiting after just 65 pitches.
The bar is low for Ryu at the moment, to be sure, but you can’t say that he hasn’t sailed over it in his last couple of starts.
Other notes
• Not a great return to the majors for Cavan Biggio, who wasn’t done any favours by having to face the high velocity of Ohtani. Biggio managed to work a seventh inning walk, but otherwise struck out three times on the night — and not especially competitively, either. (He was recalled on Thursday afternoon, with Vinny Capra being optioned to Buffalo in order to free a roster spot.)
• Matt Chapman hit a 94.6 mph fly 359 feet in the sixth inning, and smashed another one at 96.4 mph in the second. He was 2-for-4 on the night, taking his wRC+ in 2022 down to 81 — 20 points lower than last year's career low of 101. Chapman is now slashing .187/.276/.347, which is pretty staggering when you consider how similar his underlying numbers are to his 5.7 WAR 2019 season, during which he slashed .249/.342/.506 (125 wRC+).
Statcast's expected stats aren't factoring in the dead ball just yet, so they can be a little misleading right now, but still, Chapman has an xBA of .248 and an xSLG of .504. The difference between his wOBA (.281) and his xwOBA (.364) is the 10th biggest among the 297 hitters with at least 50 batted ball events so far this season. His xwOBA puts him into a tie for 66th in that group, alongside guys like Josh Bell, Trea Turner, Kole Calhoun, Carlos Correa, and Ohtani.
What a weird couple of months for him! Just keep doing what you're doing, Matt.
• Both of the well-hit balls that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had in this one came on pitches up in the zone — a trend that was noted on the broadcast, and something I wrote about in my Weekend Up piece following the Reds series (in which I noted that Vlad hasn’t barrelled a ball in the lower third all season).
That’s something the Jays have noticed too, according to a nice bit of insight offered during the broadcast by Pat Tabler.
“When he had his big year last year they started in spring training with this low tee, by putting it inside and keeping it low, simulating balls down in the strike zone. Remember when he had that reputation of hitting a lot of ground balls? So they wanted to change his swing angle and have him swing up a little bit more, especially on that ball down. So they did a lot of tee work, and it paid off in a big way for him last year.
“Recently they brought the little tee back out again. They want to simulate that ball down and keep it close to the body so he keeps hands close to his body. Stay inside that baseball, and that low pitch — lift it in the air. At times he can get a little bit deep, where his swing, he swings too much down — on a downward plane — where they're trying to change that and get him to get the ball in the air. So change the swing path a little bit on those low pitches.”
This I find especially interesting because of how at odds it is with my favourite Dante Bichette quote from back in September 2020. For those who have missed it the million times I’ve used it, including just over a week ago, at the time Dante said this about Vlad, who he characterized as a “line drive guy” while explaining that he didn’t think trying to get more loft was the way to go.
“I've tried to get him away from trying to lift the ball, because when he lifts the ball, if you understand swing path, you've got to catch it out front on the way up. So we back the ball up a little bit and just try to get him on path earlier, so he's more on path with the ball and is more consistent.
“When you lift the ball, sometimes when you're early you'll roll over it and you'll actually make it worse, and you'll actually hit more ground balls. So, just a simple drill — and I made it simple with Vladdy — 'let's do this simple drill, we'll pound it inside, catch the ball deep.' And, you know, it kind of cleared his mind of all the 'hey, I'm trying to get the ball in the air,' and it just made him hit line drives back through the middle in batting practice, and then be the hitter he can be.”
Very interesting to me that some of the exact thing Dante was preaching to Vlad back then — don’t lift it, let it get deep — are being undone somewhat. And apparently were being undone somewhat last spring, before Vlad’s breakout. Hmm.
• Also worth noting: MLB.com’s Mike Petriello had an excellent piece this week on this very subject. In it, he identifies how opposing pitchers have also picked up on Vlad’s struggles to put lower pitches in the air (in addition to his success with fastballs) and have consistently given him breaking balls low in the zone this year. Fortunately, we can feel confident that Vlad’s got the talent to adjust to this. And we sure seem to have been seeing that happen in his last few games.
• Nate Pearson made his season debut of the Dunedin Blue Jays on Thursday night, and as the Hawk-Eye system is installed at TD Ballpark, we’re able to see Statcast data from the game. I don't think it's worth getting worked up about where he's at, given that he's basically had to start his season over again after a bout with mono, but the numbers from this one certainly don't leap off the page.
Pearson pitched 1 1/3 innings, allowing one run on one hit and one walk, with one strikeout. He did a good job of keeping his fastball away from the heart of the plate, but he was only averaging 95.2 mph on the pitch, topping out at 97.5, which is below his 97.8 average last year. None of his fastballs generated a swing-and-miss, though four did go for called strikes.
The other pitch he threw was his slider, which was a bit all over the place in terms of location. Of the 13 he threw, seven generated a swing, and two got a swing-and-miss. The velocity on it was down too, albeit not by as much as the fastball.
As I say, best not to get worked up here unless these things develop into trends, but definitely noticeable. Great to see him back on a mound though.
• I pointed this out the last time he started too, but it really is startling how the strikeouts seem to have dried up of late for Alek Manoah. You can see it visualized quite nicely in the data at Props.cash — player prop research made easy! Perplexing stuff! Especially since Manoah has been so outstanding lately.
As I’ve mentioned before, I’m not sure if this is even a concern, per se. Manoah is trading missed bats for missed barrels. Of 131 pitchers with at least 30 innings so far in 2022, Manoah's 20.4% hard hit rate is tied for the fourth lowest. And since his 1.62 ERA is tied for the fifth-best among that group, I doubt anybody is complaining. The strikeout thing is odd, though!
• Jeeho Yoo, who covers the KBO for Yonhap News in South Korea, reported on Thursday that our old friend Anthony Alford is now a member of that league’s KT Wiz, a team based in Suwon. Anyone who has followed the Blue Jays in recent years can surely wish him nothing but the best.
• Also on Thursday, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported that MLB has extended the amount of time it will allow teams to carry 14 pitchers on their roster. The altered rule will continue to be in effect until June 19th (though I certainly wouldn’t bet against it being extended again).
• Prospect watch!
The game in question here was the one that Nate Pearson appeared in. The Statcast data says that Martinez’s home runs were 103.8 and 108.8 mph off the bat. 🤩
• Amazing news from my pal Blake Murphy, who announced on Twitter today that he’ll be hosting a new show on the Fan590 going forward called Jays Talk Plus. The show will go every weekday from 3-5 PM ET. Cool stuff!
• Speaking of broadcast-y things — and plusses — don’t forget that tonight’s game between the Jays and Angels is available exclusively on Apple TV+. Yes, even in Canada.
I’ll spare you the rant about MLB limiting access to its games — which is incredibly stupid, especially when it affects some of their most loyal customers — and point out that these games are actually free to watch. You don’t need to start a trial either, you just need to have somewhere you can watch Apple TV+ (though you will have to create an Apple ID if you don’t have one — which may require you giving them your credit card information, though you won’t be charged). Sounds dumb too, frankly.
Here are MLB’s instructions for how to do this. Best of luck helping your less technologically inclined friends and relatives with this!
• A pair of good ones from Ethan Diamandas of Yahoo Sports, as he spoke to the Jays’ assistant hitting coach, Hunter Mense, about Raimel Tapia’s “freed up” swing — something that should help him drive more balls in the air (and seems to be doing, despite limited success so far) — will ultimately pay off. Ethan also looks at the next problem on the horizon for the Jays: the bullpen’s lack of swing-and-miss.
• A short personal note: I know and understand that times are tough for everyone, but earlier today I had a brief moment of weakness where I thought about maybe starting to put the odd piece on this site behind the paywall in order to drive some of those who are on the fence toward becoming paid subscribers. Using the paywall is something I definitely don’t want to do — I’d much rather my work be available for all to read. So if anyone is able to and values my work enough to do so, or is a former subscriber whose credit card has expired and would like to re-up, I would like to humbly ask you to consider it. Thanks!
• Lastly, don’t forget that Nick and I will be back with another live Blue Jays Happy Hour at the conclusion of Sunday’s finale with the Angels (first pitch: 4:07 PM ET). Follow the show on Callin here!
Next up: Friday, 7:38 PM ET: Jays @ Angels (Alek Manoah vs. Chase Silseth), TV: Sportsnet, Radio: Sportsnet 590
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*clutching framed image of Matt Chapman's Statcast data a la Bart at Kamp Krusty*
𝘚𝘰, 𝘑𝘰𝘩𝘯𝘯𝘺 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘬𝘦𝘦𝘱 𝘱𝘶𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘯', '𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘴
𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦'𝘭𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘢 𝘥𝘢𝘺 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳
𝘚𝘰, 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘵 𝘶𝘱, 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘵 𝘶𝘱, 𝘪𝘵 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳
𝘞𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶'𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘸𝘢𝘺